CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

[Coyote]

The fact that China is a huge economy that the US wants into, drives a lot of policy.

We export every little to china

the idea that we ever will is an illusion

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

 

[Concerned American]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

The elder Bush did everything he could to promote China. He normalized relations as ambassador under Nixon. He disavowed Taiwan days after Tienanmen Square while bestowing "most-favored nations" trading status on China as POTUS. The elder Bush was a China stooge. Now the imperialist CCP feels emboldened and is attacking everyone around them, India, Tibet, Taiwan while building/creating islands in the South China Sea in order to control SE Asian shipping routes. Biden is complicit in their attempts as he and numerous other monied influential American traitors have sided with the CCP against American interests. Dark days are ahead for America.

 

[Mac-7]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

 

[Correll]

When people lay the blame for the destruction of human rights in Hong Kong on the people of Hong Kong, it would be logical to assume they would also lay the blame on The Taiwanese people when the Communists crush them.

china apologists do not put all the blame for chinese aggression on Taiwan

They blame America also for supporting human rights wherever the shadow of CCP tyranny falls

America has a patchy record of supporting human rights. Depends on who is being brutal and how convenient they are to our national interests. Take our relative silence on Egypt for example, or our reluctance to do much about the Uighurs in China.

Many china apologists are loathe to even admit that china is a major threat to human rights

if china crushes Taiwan while biden drools on his desk in the oval office they have already signaled that its the Taiwanese people’s fault for wanting freedom

China crushed Hong Kong while Trump drooled on his desk in the Oval Office. Not a very good track record.

My point in this thread has been to draw attention to the differences in standards applied to the Chinese and the Americans by liberals on this issue.


I don't want war with China. I would like to stop trading with them, to stop doing everything we can to grow their economy.


But that is another matter.

Problem is, it's not just "American liberals" who apply different standards - it's American conservatives as well - this has been through multiple regimes. The fact that China is a huge economy that the US wants into, drives a lot of policy.

The op accepts China's desire for a war of conquest and oppression as a valid and acceptable national goal, while condemning our support of a democratic and free nation as warmongering.


I want a real discussion and cost benefit analysis of what is at stake and what we can reasonably do, when it comes to policy, such as what to do about China.


The OP is not that. We cannot have a real discussion of the issue, when we are in that kind of a delusional bubble.

 

[Mac-7]

while building/creating islands in the South China Sea in order to control SE Asian shipping routes.

I keep confronting the china apologists - such as the op - with this fact and not one has answered it

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

The elder Bush did everything he could to promote China. He normalized relations as ambassador under Nixon. He disavowed Taiwan days after Tienanmen Square while bestowing "most-favored nations" trading status on China as POTUS. The elder Bush was a China stooge. Now the imperialist CCP feels emboldened and is attacking everyone around them, India, Tibet, Taiwan while building/creating islands in the South China Sea in order to control SE Asian shipping routes. Biden is complicit in their attempts as he and numerous other monied influential American traitors have sided with the CCP against American interests. Dark days are ahead for America.

I did not know that.
Surprised.

Taiwan is a lovely thing.

 

[Coyote]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

 

[progressive hunter]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

 

[Mac-7]

Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations.

No, we need to change our trade policies

Globalists thought things would be better if America was weaker and the rest of the world stronger

it was argued that trading partners do not wage war on each other

but china has not mellowed at all

and in fact has become more belligerent as its economic and military power grows

 

[Coyote]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

If we can, sure. I was listening to something fairly recently, on China's economy and how it's recovering more quickly after Covid, then ours. Two of the things they pointed out were a vast vast source of cheap labor (people moving from rural poverty to urban areas, willing to work for very little) and the other was centralization of various types of manufacturing (for example an entire town that only makes one item). How would we compete with the labor issue?

 

[Mac-7]

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

That only works to a limited extent

manufacturing stuff in America makes our economy better

but the cost of consumer products will go up

which liberal globalists will complain about bitterly

 

[progressive hunter]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

If we can, sure. I was listening to something fairly recently, on China's economy and how it's recovering more quickly after Covid, then ours. Two of the things they pointed out were a vast vast source of cheap labor (people moving from rural poverty to urban areas, willing to work for very little) and the other was centralization of various types of manufacturing (for example an entire town that only makes one item). How would we compete with the labor issue?

why wouldnt they be doing better when we are locked down and have no manufacturing base to produce our own products,,

but none of that has anything to do with what I asked,,,

 

[progressive hunter]

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

That only works to a limited extent

manufacturing stuff in America makes our economy better

but the cost of consumer products will go up

which liberal globalists will complain about bitterly

theyre are going up now,, at least we would be secure if we had control of our needed consumables,,

 

[Mac-7]

How would we compete with the labor issue?

By accepting the fact that the lowest absolute price is not the only important consideration

one reason china is recovering faster - which may or may not be true since they lie out of their ass - is that basic manufacturing is the first to recover

we dont make stuff here so its harder to rev up our economy

 

[Mac-7]

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

That only works to a limited extent

manufacturing stuff in America makes our economy better

but the cost of consumer products will go up

which liberal globalists will complain about bitterly

theyre are going up now,, at least we would be secure if we had control of our needed consumables,,

China has the power to cut off our supply of life-saving drugs overnight

its disgraceful that the evil corrupt swamp rats in washington would allow such a thing

 

[August West]

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

You sound like nevil chamberlain in 1939

The tiawanese are on the verge of voting for independence from mainland china

They know the risk of war

so the issue is not fake concern over damage to taiwan, but rather your belief that china is too strong for any nation, even America, to oppose.

And therefore appeasement is the “smart“ move in your opinion

I don`t think Mr. Paine would travel half way around the world to start a war where there is nothing to win but plenty to lose. Are you old enough to know about our last adventure in that part of the world? The war in Korea is another where we had no strategic interest and won nothing. A war of attrition anywhere in Asia is a losing proposition. The Army didn`t want to go to Vietnam but the Air Force said they won`t need to because the AF could do it all in short time. They couldn`t and didn`t.

 

[Concerned American]

The fact that China is a huge economy that the US wants into, drives a lot of policy.

We export every little to china

the idea that we ever will is an illusion

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

The Chinese have infiltrated numerous traditionally American businesses--SAIC-GM is one. Trump was right to impose tariffs on China. American companies are going to China, exploiting Chinese labor all the while reaping immeasurable damage on the US economy/balance of payments. The CCP is getting payments from these traitorous American companies and using that largesse to purchase American companies in America (Smithfield Farms--world's largest pork producer). It does not take a rocket scientist to extrapolate the eventual outcome. Americans speaking mandarin and working for the CCP.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The op accepts China's desire for a war of conquest

You start with a lie, because China does not “desire“ a war of conquest.

Talk from you about wanting “a real discussion and cost benefit analysis” now is pseudo-objective pretense. The issue has been explained clearly in the many links and comments I have provided. You haven’t even tried to present a strategy for preventing — or dealing with — this brewing crisis. What your complaint now amounts to ... is utterly irresponsible dodging of the question.

Let me put it this way: Imagine Donald Trump — or your imagined perfect candidate — had won the U.S. election. What would you have him do in regard to Taiwan? Recognize its independent sovereignty? Load the island up with thousands of new jet planes and missiles? Land U.S. marines on its shores? Send warships to permanently sail the Taiwan straights? How do you think China would respond to any of those measures?

 

[Concerned American]

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

You sound like nevil chamberlain in 1939

The tiawanese are on the verge of voting for independence from mainland china

They know the risk of war

so the issue is not fake concern over damage to taiwan, but rather your belief that china is too strong for any nation, even America, to oppose.

And therefore appeasement is the “smart“ move in your opinion

I don`t think Mr. Paine would travel half way around the world to start a war where there is nothing to win but plenty to lose. Are you old enough to know about our last adventure in that part of the world? The war in Korea is another where we had no strategic interest and won nothing. A war of attrition anywhere in Asia is a losing proposition. The Army didn`t want to go to Vietnam but the Air Force said they won`t need to because the AF could do it all in short time. They couldn`t and didn`t.

Taiwan is not Korea or Vietnam. Taiwan has been a free nation since Chiang Kai-shek and the US backed them until the elder Bush disavowed the relationship after Tienanmen Square. It is important that the US rekindle and maintain a relationship with Taiwan during the current climate in the world.

 

[Correll]

The op accepts China's desire for a war of conquest

You start with a lie, because China does not “want“ a war of conquest.

Talk from you about wanting “a real discussion and cost benefit analysis” now is pseudo-objective pretense. The issue has been explained clearly in the many links and comments I have provided. You haven’t even tried to present a strategy for preventing — or dealing with — this brewing crisis. What your complaint now amounts to ... is utterly irresponsible dodging of the question.

Let me put it this way: Imagine Donald Trump — or your imagined perfect candidate — had won the U.S. election. What would you have him do in regard to Taiwan? Recognize its independent sovereignty? Load the island up with thousands of new jet planes and missiles? Land U.S. marines on its shores? Send warships to permanently sail the Taiwan straights? How do you think China would respond to any of those measures?

1. Read the op. I stand by my analysis of it's position.

2. What would I want?


I want a serious reassessment of our national security goals in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War.


Ideally a return to far less interventionist stance, with much less military spending and far less treaty commitments to defend other nations, especially those that are not really friendly to US.


I do not want US standing back and allowing China to take Taiwan, because of some concern about the moral wrongness of our supporting their desire for independence.



STEP ONE. End teh massive trade deficit with China.