Taiwan.....an enigma

[Rogue AI]

No one has to fight and die, if a war never happens. If we back Taiwan hard diplomatically and militarily, China has to back down. Their military is not up to modern standards. They can only win by trying to scare us. Don’t let them.

Nonsense, China will not back down, Taiwan is a redline issue. We really don't know their military capabilities, but we do know they have stolen quite a bit of our technology. Their espionage efforts are far superior to our own. We spent over 20 years focused on low tech enemies while China has been improving their technology and training. China is also far more friendly with Russia. Russia will provide all sorts of military aid to China if it means killing US troops, thanks to our misbegotten ventures in Ukraine.

 

[JohnDB]

Taiwan is a unique situation.

Over and above the massive microchip manufacturing facilities that have been built by the free trading capitalist nations big businesses....the truly valuable resource Taiwan has is the people who have been trained since childhood on how to manufacture these processing chips/wafers and the associated industries that support the electronics manufacturing. (Complicated process).

CCP is looking with longing desire at both the banks and the chip making industry which are absolutely flush with Western cash and capabilities. CCP has neither cash nor ability to reproduce the processes.
(China has had a junk bond crisis that makes the USA's in the 90's look like a case of indigestion versus their case of stomach cancer )


And the military of CCP is not quite as strong as the Military Industrial Complex would like you to believe.
Nor is China's population as large as it claims. (Children are very expensive go have in China as their education system is a student competition system where only the best are allowed to continue education)
Corruption is rampant as is the custom in totalitarian regimes. So many of the military machinery (including ships, missiles, air support, and tanks) are not really that functional or reliable.
They aren't exactly toothless....just not as capable as we are led to believe.

Taiwan is extremely vulnerable by means of their water supplies. (They already don't have much) and they are vulnerable because they are on the ring of fire in a geologically unstable volcanic area. (Tsunami, typhoon, earthquakes)
These factors alone means that CCP can militarily take Taiwan anytime they want.

However....the land of Taiwan is not valuable whatsoever. (The ocean floor near Taiwan is as many transatlantic fiber optic cables handling terabytes per second are there. )

The valuable resource is the many people....and people can be moved. Money also can be moved at the speed of light. The factories are set to self destruct upon invasion.

 

[JoeB131]

No one has to fight and die, if a war never happens. If we back Taiwan hard diplomatically and militarily, China has to back down. Their military is not up to modern standards. They can only win by trying to scare us. Don’t let them.

Never underestimate the Chinese.

Frankly, their military is pretty good.

My wife (for those playing along at home, my wife was born in Sichuan) wanted to watch the 80th Anniversary parade for the end of WWII.

Those guys looked sharp and their equipment looked impressive.

I compare that to the Trump Fascist Birthday Parade, where those guys looked like they'd rather be anywhere else. (Although whoever trolled Trump with Fortunate Son was a genius.)

Here's what all of you don't get. If there is one thing that drives China's foreign policy, it's its determination on the issue of national sovereignty. A century of Western/Japanese interference in China's internal affairs has left them very defensive.

Now, yes, we have a larger navy. But while our Navy has global commitments, their navy can focus on the job at hand.

 

[JoeB131]

Taiwan is a unique situation.

Over and above the massive microchip manufacturing facilities that have been built by the free trading capitalist nations big businesses....the truly valuable resource Taiwan has is the people who have been trained since childhood on how to manufacture these processing chips/wafers and the associated industries that support the electronics manufacturing. (Complicated process).

CCP is looking with longing desire at both the banks and the chip making industry which are absolutely flush with Western cash and capabilities. CCP has neither cash nor ability to reproduce the processes.
(China has had a junk bond crisis that makes the USA's in the 90's look like a case of indigestion versus their case of stomach cancer )

Yeah, you guys have been saying that since the 1980s.

Chip factories are not worth World War III.

The valuable resource is the many people....and people can be moved. Money also can be moved at the speed of light. The factories are set to self destruct upon invasion.

You think the people who own those factories are going to blow them up because the national government changes?

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

If China goes to war they are not going to be trading with whoever they are fighting. In this case it would be a war we started if the matter is Taiwan. Chinese exports would reach plenty of other countries, just not the ones they are fighting. Don't be a fool.

Do you think we would allow Chines ships with exports to leave China? We are their biggest customer. Look what happened when their ships couldn't offload during COVID. They lost billions in trade every single day.

 

[konradv]

Nonsense, China will not back down, Taiwan is a redline issue. We really don't know their military capabilities, but we do know they have stolen quite a bit of our technology. Their espionage efforts are far superior to our own. We spent over 20 years focused on low tech enemies while China has been improving their technology and training. China is also far more friendly with Russia. Russia will provide all sorts of military aid to China if it means killing US troops, thanks to our misbegotten ventures in Ukraine.

Taiwan should be a red line issue for us. China will back down; they’re not bulletproof and they know it, their military prowess being mostly a myth. They haven’t fought a real war in ages and their “little princes” aren’t up to the challenge, IMO.

 

[konradv]

Never underestimate the Chinese.

Frankly, their military is pretty good.

My wife (for those playing along at home, my wife was born in Sichuan) wanted to watch the 80th Anniversary parade for the end of WWII.

Those guys looked sharp and their equipment looked impressive.

I compare that to the Trump Fascist Birthday Parade, where those guys looked like they'd rather be anywhere else. (Although whoever trolled Trump with Fortunate Son was a genius.)

Here's what all of you don't get. If there is one thing that drives China's foreign policy, it's its determination on the issue of national sovereignty. A century of Western/Japanese interference in China's internal affairs has left them very defensive.

Now, yes, we have a larger navy. But while our Navy has global commitments, their navy can focus on the job at hand.

The Chinese military is mostly for show, IMO, and would fold in any real conflict.

 

[Rogue AI]

Do you think we would allow Chines ships with exports to leave China? We are their biggest customer. Look what happened when their ships couldn't offload during COVID. They lost billions in trade every single day.

China produces goods, they can sell them elsewhere, all along their belt and road initiative. Unlike Covid, in the event of a war, China would still be trading with any and all who would be willing. We could maybe stop some of their ships, but we can hardly end rail traffic, nor can we greatly interfere with the commerce of others without repercussions. The loss of pharmaceuticals would cost American lives, almost immediately. Then take into account everything else that would not be available.

 

[Rogue AI]

Taiwan should be a red line issue for us. China will back down; they’re not bulletproof and they know it, their military prowess being mostly a myth. They haven’t fought a real war in ages and their “little princes” aren’t up to the challenge, IMO.

China will not back down on Taiwan. Even in the 70's that wouldn't have happened, they will go nuclear before they'd give up Taiwan.

 

[konradv]

China will not back down on Taiwan. Even in the 70's that wouldn't have happened, they will go nuclear before they'd give up Taiwan.

China just won’t try, because the result would not be good, as long as we and their other allies stand by them.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

China produces goods, they can sell them elsewhere, all along their belt and road initiative. Unlike Covid, in the event of a war, China would still be trading with any and all who would be willing. We could maybe stop some of their ships, but we can hardly end rail traffic, nor can we greatly interfere with the commerce of others without repercussions. The loss of pharmaceuticals would cost American lives, almost immediately. Then take into account everything else that would not be available.

How are they going to get their products to those foreign markets? Do you know how much of China's trade is via the ocean? Why not most of the ships? 5-inch guns are very persuasive.

 

[JoeB131]

The Chinese military is mostly for show, IMO, and would fold in any real conflict.

Really? What do you base that on?

 

[konradv]

Really? What do you base that on?

Where have they shown their abilities? Nowhere, IMO. It’s all theoretical.

 

[JohnDB]

Yeah, you guys have been saying that since the 1980s.

Chip factories are not worth World War III.


You think the people who own those factories are going to blow them up because the national government changes?

Yes, part of the deal.

There is only ONE manufacturer for the machines (called "fans") that produce the wafers using ultraviolet lithography. They are based here in the USA and there is a block from exporting the machines to CCP....the CCP has tried to get around the blockade every month for the past 40 years since they abused their last Fan and the market by trying to deliberately bankrupt all other chipmakers. Taiwan government has a "scorched earth" policy in place for ALL manufacturing facilities.
This "Scorched Earth " policy may not compute for you but one look at the citizens of Iran today and it's more common than you might think outside the USA.

Which demonstrates a mindset that is extremely rare in America. In the USA and other places people play the lottery, create YouTube videos, and even OnlyFans pages in hope of a glamorous and wealthy lifestyle by the millions. The residents in Taiwan do not have those aspirations. They have the exact life they want and if they cant have it they would rather see the whole world burn to the ground.

Taiwan is NOT Hong Kong....very different mindset there.


The USA has significant investments in plants and production facilities there....Micron, Nvidia, Intel, Western Digital and TSC to name a few. But then there's all of Europe too. Then there's Japanese companies which constitutes a MAJOR portion of their investment dollars. Losing that to communists will bankrupt Japan overnight. And CCP governance is tantamount to literal theft of those investment funds. Its NOT just a change in governance like you would wish it to be. The exact same thing that happened in Hong Kong will happen in Taiwan. Sure, your deposits look like they are there until you need to take money out....and you are instantly stopped, arrested, and executed for doing so.

Its theft and extortion on an international scale. CCP is broke and desperate enough to do it unless someone or several someones try to stop them.

Japan, Estonia, Netherlands, Swiss, Germany, UK, Phillipines and others are more than willing to fight over this. Because it's their money.

 

[Rogue AI]

How are they going to get their products to those foreign markets? Do you know how much of China's trade is via the ocean? Why not most of the ships? 5-inch guns are very persuasive.

There is rail and roads, the southern sea lanes, and there is Russia. Russia certainly would not abide by any sanctions or other silliness imposed upon China. What you seem to keep missing, is we lose in the exchange if trade is halted. There simply is no replacement for Chinese goods here and amongst many of our allies. You folks also seem to forget they are communist, capitalism is not their goal, quite the opposite, the enemy of their ideology.

 

[Unkotare]

There is rail and roads, the southern sea lanes, and there is Russia. Russia certainly would not abide by any sanctions or other silliness imposed upon China. What you seem to keep missing, is we lose in the exchange if trade is halted. There simply is no replacement for Chinese goods here and amongst many of our allies. You folks also seem to forget they are communist, capitalism is not their goal, quite the opposite, the enemy of their ideology.

Cheap-ass bot ^^^.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

There is rail and roads, the southern sea lanes, and there is Russia. Russia certainly would not abide by any sanctions or other silliness imposed upon China. What you seem to keep missing, is we lose in the exchange if trade is halted. There simply is no replacement for Chinese goods here and amongst many of our allies. You folks also seem to forget they are communist, capitalism is not their goal, quite the opposite, the enemy of their ideology.

What you don't seem to realize is China cannot afford to lose us as a customer. No way, no how! That is why they will keep talking a good game, while never doing a thing to upset the apple cart.

Our ships can control the southern sea lanes also. 5-inch rounds for the DDGs guns are fairly cheap for taking down cargo ships.

 

[JoeB131]

What you don't seem to realize is China cannot afford to lose us as a customer. No way, no how! That is why they will keep talking a good game, while never doing a thing to upset the apple cart.

Our ships can control the southern sea lanes also. 5-inch rounds for the DDGs guns are fairly cheap for taking down cargo ships.

Except a DDG can be taken down by a hypersonic missile.

Let's not forget, we really can't afford to lose China as a supplier, either. That's why Trump folded when Xi threatened to withhold rare earth metals, which China is the primary producer of.

So let's assume the following scenario. China invades Taiwan. There's some naval exchanges, we lose an aircraft carrier or two and some smaller ships, China takes heavy causualties. The world "punishes" China by cutting off trade, but probably the BRICS will continue to trade with them, followed by the EU, and then eventually, the US will reach some kind of agreement

And life will go on.

 

[JohnDB]

Except a DDG can be taken down by a hypersonic missile.

Let's not forget, we really can't afford to lose China as a supplier, either. That's why Trump folded when Xi threatened to withhold rare earth metals, which China is the primary producer of.

So let's assume the following scenario. China invades Taiwan. There's some naval exchanges, we lose an aircraft carrier or two and some smaller ships, China takes heavy causualties. The world "punishes" China by cutting off trade, but probably the BRICS will continue to trade with them, followed by the EU, and then eventually, the US will reach some kind of agreement

And life will go on.

We hope that's how things will play out.

CCP and Russia are both in dire straights over several reasons....money and trade are what has kept them afloat....but Russia is needing more trade. Sanctions have made life there difficult. Russia is out of ships, tanks, train cars, and heavy duty trucks. (Suspensions are made by equipment from Europe....no replacements either)

CCP needs money and they have the best mining equipment and processing of anyone. They hold the global supplies of certain minerals by design.

Nobody has cut off trade with China.

Iran soon won't be trading with anyone. The "I" in Brics is in complete chaos. The Rias are worthless until they set up a new government. So we'll see what happens with the Shaheed drones that Moscow likes. And the support for all these terrorist groups is likely over as well.

So.....

If for whatever reason CCP takes Taiwan....they get nothing out of the deal except for losing Europe and USA as customers. The banks will wire the money away, the facilities key components will be garbage, and the key personnel will be spirited away.

Nothing left.

Russia still won't have heavy suspensions for equipment and CCP will still be broke.

And the USA has been looking at creating chipmaking here in the USA. (Our tech anyway)

We make memory here....we make processing chips here too. Robotics make boards. Taiwan simply makes all of this cheaper. So it's advantageous to use them. Until it isnt....

 

[konradv]

There is rail and roads, the southern sea lanes, and there is Russia. Russia certainly would not abide by any sanctions or other silliness imposed upon China. What you seem to keep missing, is we lose in the exchange if trade is halted. There simply is no replacement for Chinese goods here and amongst many of our allies. You folks also seem to forget they are communist, capitalism is not their goal, quite the opposite, the enemy of their ideology.

Bowing to China and Russia?! This ain’t Ronnie’s GOP!