CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

[excalibur]

China has nowhere near a thousand nuclear warheads. Where are you getting this misinformation? I fact most estimates have them having between 260 and 320.

Preempt them?

 

[EvilCat Breath]

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

We are taking affirmative steps to dismantle our military. China knows it can take Taiwan any time it wants.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

China has nowhere near a thousand nuclear warheads. Where are you getting this misinformation? I fact most estimates have them having between 260 and 320.

Again, I never said China has “a thousand nuclear warheads.”
In fact, the Chinese leadership has concluded it must expand its limited nuclear capacities to better prove to any potential “Dr. Strangeloves” in the U.S. that any U.S. “nuclear first strike” on China would be madness, and followed by the U.S.‘s own nuclear obliteration.

 

[Rogue AI]

China crushed Hong Kong while Trump drooled on his desk in the Oval Office. Not a very good track record.

Hong Kong does belong to China. We might have a few problems if China intervened to bring peace to the streets of Portland or Chicago.

 

[Turtlesoup]

Because slavery showed the Declaration to be bullshit. You want to go to war for bullshit?

if we back down to china and allow them to take Taiwan, they will keep going taking other nations one at a time just as HITLER did forcing US to eventually go to war with them ---a more costly war in both money and lives. It's best to bitch slap them now----which means getting rid of Biden and his corrupt administration. As Trump showed, you keep China in line by going after them monetarily by imposing tariffs to curtail their profits made off the US and others. Allowing them to seize other nations, steal our technology, and corner the market on precious metals especially in the battery field is going to come back and bite us in the ass.

 

[Turtlesoup]

Again, I never said China has “a thousand nuclear warheads.”
In fact, the Chinese leadership has concluded it must expand its limited nuclear capacities to better prove to any potential “Dr. Strangeloves” in the U.S. that any U.S. “nuclear first strike” on China would be madness, and followed by the U.S.‘s own nuclear obliteration.

China is now thinking in terms of having or making it look like RUSSIA will be firing nukes at us so we retaliate against Russia--------not them.

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

We are taking affirmative steps to dismantle our military. China knows it can take Taiwan any time it wants.

Negotiated a deal with Hunter Biden were they paid to have that done

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

if we back down to china and allow them to take Taiwan, they will keep going taking other nations one at a time just as HITLER did forcing US to eventually go to war with them ---a more costly war in both money and lives.

This is a preposterous error. China has no interest in invading and having to occupy sovereign states like Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Afghanistan, Australia. But Taiwan has long been a uniquely important “red line” for China. All mainstream Western experts have recognized this “red line” too, and know it flows from our intervention into the Chinese Civil War. We respected China’s declared interests there since withdrawing recognition of Taiwan as a country and accepting a “One China” policy.

Nothing compares to China’s desire and determination to re-unify its country with Taiwan island, and to prevent hostile powers from arming “Taiwan province.” The more we violate “One China” policies, the more the Chinese CCP leadership acts hostilely in return, preparing for war. Generations of Chinese have grown up believing Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and it is as firmly held a belief as that Hawaii or New Mexico is a part of the U.S.A.

The power and apparent national determination of the Chinese leadership (and most Chinese people) to “reunify China” may be a very unfortunate fact for Taiwan residents who do not want re-unification even under any imaginable form of “one state, two systems,” and who right now think the U.S. somehow can and will save them … but it is a fact nevertheless.

 

[Unkotare]

.... Generations of Chinese have grown up believing Taiwan is an inseparable part of China,.....

And generations of Taiwanese have grown up believing it is not.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Not the same at all. Since 1949 this was a “red line” truth for China. The ruling Mainland-derived Taiwan-occupying Guomindang Party said the same thing — “there is only one China, us” — and until at least 1986 when the KMT dictatorship more or less ended there that was all that mattered on the island.

For 5 decades up until the end of 1945 Taiwan was run as a seized possession of Japan, but its population spoke Chinese dialects and had long been part of China. When the Japanese withdrew after WWII it became part of China again, and given the hostility of Chinese toward the Japanese invasion of mainland China in the 1930s, a fierce nationalist determination to keep Taiwan out of any alliance with foreigners sunk deep roots — among all Chinese nationalists, not just communists.

Evolving “Taiwanese identity” is very complex and the “independence movement” is a much newer phenomenon there, encouraged by belief the U.S. will “save” them. Of course the main reality is China has 1.4 billion people and the power to reunite the island — by force if necessary.

 

[Unkotare]

Not the same at all. ......

For all practical purposes.

 

[danielpalos]

Why not help China solve their domestic issues so they won't have to look externally for potential problems?

 

[sartre play]

While I have no answer, have grown more concerned about what has been going on in Hong Kong. China always plays the long game. they are not fighting each other while we are. We are not prepared to deal with coming situations as we are focused on destroying each other.

 

[danielpalos]

Could this be part of the problem:

The defense and protection of the state and of the United States is an obligation of all persons within the state. The legislature shall provide for the discharge of this obligation and for the maintenance and regulation of an organized militia.

We have a Second Amendment and should have no security problems in our free States.

 

[Turtlesoup]

This is a preposterous error. China has no interest in invading and having to occupy sovereign states like Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Afghanistan, Australia. But Taiwan has long been a uniquely important “red line” for China. All mainstream Western experts have recognized this “red line” too, and know it flows from our intervention into the Chinese Civil War. We respected China’s declared interests there since withdrawing recognition of Taiwan as a country and accepting a “One China” policy.

Nothing compares to China’s desire and determination to re-unify its country with Taiwan island, and to prevent hostile powers from arming “Taiwan province.” The more we violate “One China” policies, the more the Chinese CCP leadership acts hostilely in return, preparing for war. Generations of Chinese have grown up believing Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and it is as firmly held a belief as that Hawaii or New Mexico is a part of the U.S.A.

The power and apparent national determination of the Chinese leadership (and most Chinese people) to “reunify China” may be a very unfortunate fact for Taiwan residents who do not want re-unification even under any imaginable form of “one state, two systems,” and who right now think the U.S. somehow can and will save them … but it is a fact nevertheless.

You know that is the exact same shit that Hitler said as he started his campaign of invading other nations and seizing them one by one. He too said that the first were actually part of Germany and no one had the right to interfere as he seized them because it would be a red line starting a war if they did. IF we had stopped Hitler as he invaded the first country---millions of lives could have been saved.

What Countries Did Hitler Invade in World War II?

Between 1939 and 1941, Germany invaded and occupied Poland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Greece, Yugoslavia, Austria and Italy. Italy began as an ally of Germany; however, after Italy surrendered to United States and British forces, Germany marched in and seized Rome.

www.reference.com

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

You know that is the exact same shit that Hitler said as he started his campaign of invading other nations and seizing them one by one. He too said that the first were actually part of Germany and no one had the right to interfere as he seized them because it would be a red line starting a war if they did. IF we had stopped Hitler as he invaded the first country---millions of lives could have been saved.

What Countries Did Hitler Invade in World War II?

Between 1939 and 1941, Germany invaded and occupied Poland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Greece, Yugoslavia, Austria and Italy. Italy began as an ally of Germany; however, after Italy surrendered to United States and British forces, Germany marched in and seized Rome.

www.reference.com

Hitler and the Nazi ideology of Aryan racial supremacy, with its contempt for Slavs and “inferior races,” was utterly different than China’s ideology today. China, unlike even the U.S., doesn’t seek to spread its own “ideology” or “system of government” to the rest of the world.

Your link correctly starts:

“Between 1939 and 1941, Germany invaded and occupied Poland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Greece, Yugoslavia, Austria and Italy.”

Of all these nations only Austria had a German speaking majority after the WWI disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Hapsburg empire. After Munich the 1938 Anschluss was very popular in Austria, even winning support from the Catholic Church and Social Democratic Party of Austria. Poland had a defense treaty with England (which led to the technical start of larger war) and of course Poland and the other nations named were as distinct from Germany as Japan, Vietnam and Australia are distinct from China. China has zero interest in occupying any of these latter nations, or to “conquer the world” either.

The comparison with Hitler Germany is wrong … on many levels.

 

[Circe]

Hong Kong does belong to China. We might have a few problems if China intervened to bring peace to the streets of Portland or Chicago.

No, wait!!! Are they WILLING to do that?? None of our state or federal governments are willing to do that, maybe we should take them up on that!

 

[Stann]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

1. China does not want war, they are preparing for it though. 2. We do not want war, we are preparing for it though. 3. China wants economic domination over the entire world. 4. The US had strong economic domination over the entire world in the past. 5. Sounds like growing pains to me, China is swelling, ready to burst ; and the US has lost a lot of weight and doesn't seem to know how to get all the hole this drug itself into by sending all our businesses overseas. We would have been better off employing our own people all along. A lot less problems, and a lot less competition. We did this to ourselves. In the future I hope the US just trades makes big agreements with governments in the Western hemisphere. The logistics and economics should support that. Now is the time to do that. Canada Mexico Central America they were all appreciate the increased trade and business. It will be a win-win for everyone and it would help stop immigrants swelling in numbers at our Southern border, and I know a lot of the right wingers would really appreciate that. Like I said a win-win for everybody, except maybe the Chinese.

 

[Silver Cat]

China has nowhere near a thousand nuclear warheads. Where are you getting this misinformation? I fact most estimates have them having between 260 and 320.

Those estimates are based on the definitely false assumption that Russia didn't sell them neither warheads nor weapon-grade plutonium.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Those estimates are based on the definitely false assumption that Russia didn't sell them neither warheads nor weapon-grade plutonium.

The Russians HATE the Chinese. They only tolerated them when they were communists.