CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

[Concerned American]

The op accepts China's desire for a war of conquest

You start with a lie, because China does not “want“ a war of conquest.

Talk from you about wanting “a real discussion and cost benefit analysis” now is pseudo-objective pretense. The issue has been explained clearly in the many links and comments I have provided. You haven’t even tried to present a strategy for preventing — or dealing with — this brewing crisis. What your complaint now amounts to ... is utterly irresponsible dodging of the question.

Let me put it this way: Imagine Donald Trump — or your imagined perfect candidate — had won the U.S. election. What would you have him do in regard to Taiwan? Recognize its independent sovereignty? Load the island up with thousands of new jet planes and missiles? Land U.S. marines on its shores? Send warships to permanently sail the Taiwan straights? How do you think China would respond to any of those measures?

Please take off your blinders. China has been guilty of imperialism since Mao. They have never made any secret of their desires to take Taiwan. They have violated their promise to the UK to not interfere with the gov't of Hong Kong. They have taken over Tibet. They are in conflict currently with India. They are creating militarized islands in the South China Sea and the have made threatening gestures toward US naval vessels in the FREE South China Sea shipping. As for your assertion re: US warships sailing the Straits of Taiwan, you are not very well informed. We have been doing exactly that since the '50s.

 

[Concerned American]

STEP ONE. End teh massive trade deficit with China.

This is THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE facing the US today.

 

[Correll]

STEP ONE. End teh massive trade deficit with China.

This is THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE facing the US today.

Thank you.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Taiwan is not Korea or Vietnam. Taiwan has been a free nation since Chiang Kai-shek and the US backed them until the elder Bush disavowed the relationship after Tienanmen Square. It is important that the US rekindle and maintain a relationship with Taiwan during the current climate in the world.

Your ignorance of Taiwan and the history of our nation’s relationships with “Red China” is stunning. You obviously haven’t even bothered to read the links or comments above.

You are correct about one matter: “Taiwan is not Korea or Vietnam.”

I’m glad you clarified that ... for all of us who were confused on this point.

 

[Concerned American]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

If we can, sure. I was listening to something fairly recently, on China's economy and how it's recovering more quickly after Covid, then ours. Two of the things they pointed out were a vast vast source of cheap labor (people moving from rural poverty to urban areas, willing to work for very little) and the other was centralization of various types of manufacturing (for example an entire town that only makes one item). How would we compete with the labor issue?

At $15 for our labor, it is an impossibility. Hence, tariffs designed level the playing field and to bring mfg. back.

 

[August West]

Russia has one (1) aircraft carrier
China has two (2) aircraft carriers
We have nineteen (19) aircraft carriers
Who is looking for world domination?

 

[August West]

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

If we can, sure. I was listening to something fairly recently, on China's economy and how it's recovering more quickly after Covid, then ours. Two of the things they pointed out were a vast vast source of cheap labor (people moving from rural poverty to urban areas, willing to work for very little) and the other was centralization of various types of manufacturing (for example an entire town that only makes one item). How would we compete with the labor issue?

At $15 for our labor, it is an impossibility. Hence, tariffs designed level the playing field and to bring mfg. back.

Mfg. has been coming back since 2013 when fracking brought us cheap gas while energy costs in China rose 138%. The $15 dollar minimum wage proposal is a gradual raise to that wage btw.
Most of our manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, not China. When I began working in a steel mill we had 3,200 employees. When I retired in 2006 there were 1,100 making the same tonnage. The mill did not move to China.

 

[Concerned American]

Taiwan is not Korea or Vietnam. Taiwan has been a free nation since Chiang Kai-shek and the US backed them until the elder Bush disavowed the relationship after Tienanmen Square. It is important that the US rekindle and maintain a relationship with Taiwan during the current climate in the world.

Your ignorance of Taiwan and the history of our nation’s relationships with “Red China” is stunning. You obviously haven’t even bothered to read the links or comments above.

You are correct about one matter: “Taiwan is not Korea or Vietnam.”

I’m glad you clarified that ... for all of us who were confused on this point.

You made the comparison, not I.

We build plants for our products in China and use their labor.

How does that help American workers?

They lose jobs and become vulnerable to chinese intrusion into our domestic affairs

Not saying it does. Markets lack a moral compass. You need to convince manufacturers and corporations. None of which really has much to do with our often erratic policies on human rights.

instead of trying to convince/force them to come back how about we find out why they moved and change that so they move back??

If we can, sure. I was listening to something fairly recently, on China's economy and how it's recovering more quickly after Covid, then ours. Two of the things they pointed out were a vast vast source of cheap labor (people moving from rural poverty to urban areas, willing to work for very little) and the other was centralization of various types of manufacturing (for example an entire town that only makes one item). How would we compete with the labor issue?

At $15 for our labor, it is an impossibility. Hence, tariffs designed level the playing field and to bring mfg. back.

Mfg. has been coming back since 2013 when fracking brought us cheap gas while energy costs in China rose 138%. The $15 dollar minimum wage proposal is a gradual raise to that wage btw.
Most of our manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, not China. When I began working in a steel mill we had 3,200 employees. When I retired in 2006 there were 1,100 making the same tonnage. The mill did not move to China.

YOUR mill did not move to China, but how many did? A good example of my point is the new bay bridge in SF/Oakland. It was built largely with Chinese steel--much of which failed in the first few years. More than 30 massive earthquake safety bolts on San Francisco’s newly redesigned Bay Bridge fail, likely delaying the structure’s Labor Day opening Please note the date of the story, 2013. You get what you pay for.

 

[Mac-7]

The war in Korea is another where we had no strategic interest and won nothing.

I strongly disagree with that

south korea and japan are important friends and allies - in addition to important economic partners

a world where they were pawns of the soviet union would not be very good for America

 

[sartre play]

Stay calm & carry on. We have enough problems with out jumping ahead over future problems that may never come to pass.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Your ignorance of Taiwan and the history of our nation’s relationships with “Red China” is stunning. You obviously haven’t even bothered to read the links or comments above.

You are correct about one matter: “Taiwan is not Korea or Vietnam.”

I’m glad you clarified that ... for all of us who were confused on this point.

You have a lot of testicles accusing someone else of ignorance after saying Taiwan's population was 1.4 billion, when you you were only off by more than 1.3 billion.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

We have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

When the U.S. interposed itself into the post WWII civil war in China to save the Guomindang Army, helping it escape to Taiwan and then preventing the Red Army pursuing it, we guaranteed that civil war would continue, with us in the middle.

The “Republic of China” on Taiwan was then a dictatorship (martial law existed until 1987) that claimed to be the one legitimate government of all China. Our recognition of the mainland communist government as the “only China” recognized and seated in the Security Council was forced on us by reality and our desire to use “Red China” against the USSR. This also set the stage for Taiwan’s fast economic and political development.

China, long before its admission to the WTO, had developed nuclear weapons and “reformed and opened” its economy. Had China not been brought into the world trading community in 2001 it would likely have degenerated — not into a weaker but into a greater threat with a poorer population and more hostile nationalist leadership. Indeed, it may have come to resemble North Korea, but with thousands of nuclear weapons and 1.4 billion angry, poverty-stricken, brainwashed people.

China has nowhere near a thousand nuclear warheads. Where are you getting this misinformation? I fact most estimates have them having between 260 and 320.

 

[alang1216]

We have a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan.

We had a defense treaty, it ended 40 years ago.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

This article is by the well-know conservative military leader Lt. Colonel Daniel L. Davis (ret) who became famous for denouncing big brass lies about Afghanistan while still in service. He frequently appeared on Fox News. This article was reprinted also in the London Guardian newspaper.

The US must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs
Lt Col Daniel L Davis (ret)

The prevailing mood among Washington insiders is to fight if China attempts to conquer Taiwan. That would be a mistake …

There is no rational scenario in which the United States could end up in a better, more secure place after a war with China….

Before war comes to the Indo-Pacific and Washington faces pressure to fight a potentially existential war, American policymakers must face the cold, hard reality that fighting China over Taiwan risks an almost-certain military defeat – and gambles we won’t stumble into a nuclear war…

The U.S. must avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs — Defense Priorities

 

[danielpalos]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

Now is the best time to call for a referendum on Government over there.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

Trans-Pacific Partnership - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

trump destroyed the TPP which was designed to strengthen our allies in Asia and contain China.

We should bring back the TPP.

 

[danielpalos]

The Nationalists learned their lesson and know how to merely use Capitalism for all of its capital worth, better now.

The Communists only need moral credibility.

Article 4 All ethnic groups of the People’s Republic of China are equal. The state shall protect the lawful rights and interests of all ethnic minorities and uphold and promote relations of equality, unity, mutual assistance and harmony among all ethnic groups. Discrimination against and oppression of any ethnic group are prohibited; any act that undermines the unity of ethnic groups or creates divisions among them is prohibited.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

You have a lot of testicles accusing someone else of ignorance after saying Taiwan's population was 1.4 billion, when you you were only off by more than 1.3 billion.

Of course I never said anything of the sort. You have misread and misunderstood. I have traveled and lived in both the Mainland and Taiwan, for over eight years in total. I have studied in both and have friends in and from both areas.

I am well acquainted with the demographic, political and cultural differences between them. How you could even imagine I would say such a thing is beyond me. I suggest you reread my comments and the OP more carefully.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

Of course I never said anything of the sort. You have misread and misunderstood. I have traveled and lived in both the Mainland and Taiwan, for over eight years in total. I have studied in both and have friends in and from both areas.

I am well acquainted with the demographic, political and cultural differences between them. How you could even imagine I would say such a thing is beyond me. I suggest you reread my comments and the OP more carefully.

Try posting in English perhaps?