CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

[Mac-7]

Ok, I will draw you a picture
china is a cowardly dog

Well, thanks for painting your little picture. This “analysis” is too childish and simpleminded to take seriously. But I shall try to respond reasonably as always.

Most Chinese (whose second language is English) when they read such childish insults ... must wonder at Americans’ sanity.

I know I am often asked by them why we and Westerners always seem to wander the world starting wars. “Why are you and why were the Japanese so violent?” they ask.

Some, of course, react poorly to such insults. They become determined to teach Americans a lesson.

Far from “cowardly dogs,” the U.S. is likely to learn — if it pushes this issue too far or goes to war over Taiwan — that the Chinese have become ... “wolf warriors.”

Objectively, China’s industrial economy is far stronger than ours. They have almost five times the manpower available. Taiwan is already internationally recognized as not officially independent, as being part of “One China.” No country except — possibly —the U.S.A will try to defend Taiwan if it comes to war. Taiwan is also very close to China and very far from the U.S.A. China is united and patriotically motivated to recover Taiwan. The U.S. population is self-absorbed, disunited, and can not even decide how it should defend its own democracy and Capitol.

The diplomat who wrote the OP article, Chas Freeman, disagrees with the “China is a cowardly dog” notion as well:

“As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.”

It seems to me, to Freeman, and I believe even to that old cynical “real politic” U.S. warmonger Henry Kissinger, that we and the innocent Taiwanese people are “sleepwalking” into a tragic war with China.

Of course China does not want war over Taiwan. They are not mad. But since August 2017 — when Trump was in office — the CCP has been openly preparing to “fight and win” just such a war. They do not fool themselves about how serious a matter this would be, or say moronically that “Americans are cowardly dogs.”

They may think us crazy, perhaps, but then much of the world thinks that. If the Chinese leaders decide they have no choice but to militarily seize Taiwan, they will be prepared and they will act, and no American Administration of either party will stop them.

The only “saving” of Taiwan will come if tensions are reduced and all sides return — more or less — to the previous negotiated “diplomatic fiction” that Taiwan is part of “One China” and will “eventually” be reunited with it.

It was notably under the Trump Administration that XiJinping first famously enunciated the call for China to be ready to “fight and win wars” to “defend Chinese sovereignty”:

BEIJING, Aug. 1, 2017 (Xinhua) -- China must step up transforming its armed forces into a world-class military that is ready to fight and win wars as the country will never compromise on defending sovereignty, President Xi Jinping said.... “No one should expect us to swallow bitter fruit that is harmful to our sovereignty, security or development interests," said Xi.

Those who fantasize or fear China has long range plans to “take over the world” ... should be the last ones to doubt that they are willing, if forced, to “take over” ... Taiwan.

in your crazy upsidedown world the people of Taiwan, as well as freedom fighters in other places threatened by china such as tibet, hong kong, japan, or any nation seeking free passage in the south china sea are the war mongers for making it necessary for the CCP to use force.

thats completely insane

But relax

Because to our shame I seriously doubt if joe biden will defy his masters in beijing

I imagine china already knows it can attack Taiwan any time it pleases with no response from the US

so your mission here is just to prepare the public to acept the inevitable

 

[Mac-7]

I know I am often asked by them why we and Westerners always seem to wander the world starting wars. “Why are you and why were the Japanese so violent?” they ask.

You make them sound like children

the Chinese know all about violence because they practice it daily on their own people

and as you boldly inform us china has become powerful enough to visit extreme violence on anyone tha5 gets in their way

 

[sartre play]

Why would China want war with us? We are their number one customer, we owe them a ton of money. they are extending there reach in many Asian areas. lots of people to feed in China. Cant judge the future, but don't see any reason to panic now..

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Why would China want war with us? We are their number one customer, we owe them a ton of money. they are extending there reach in many Asian areas. lots of people to feed in China. Cant judge the future, but don't see any reason to panic now..

I agree those are all excellent reasons for the CCP and Chinese people to want to maintain good relations with the U.S., and to delay any final resolution of the Taiwan issue.

It is really hard for Americans to grasp the intensity of feeling in China about Taiwan. The U.S. is not the only player who can underestimate this nationalist fervor by overplaying its hand there.

I’ve been to Taiwan and loved the island. But I think the Taiwanese themselves naively think they can depend on the U.S.A. I think some of their political leaders are drifting away from reality. In recent peaceful and very prosperous years many Taiwanese (like the HongKong students) have developed their own special (but not very realistic) culture. In terms of “identity politics” Taiwan is moving away from even considering themselves “Chinese.” There are many cultural and political reasons for this. Among them, median per capita individual wealth in Taiwan is at $70,191, higher than the U.S. at $65,904, and of course some five times higher than in China. Professor Chas Freeman put it this way:

“The people of Taiwan built the rule of law and the democracy they now enjoy pretty much on their own, though with quiet, unacknowledged American support. They know what control by outsiders feels like and they have no desire to feel it again. On the other hand, they have had many decades to pursue a strategy toward the mainland that might preserve their autonomy without American military backing. They have not done so. Instead of facing the ineluctable realities of their dilemma, they have counted on a Hollywood-style rescue from it by the naval equivalent of the U.S. Cavalry.

“Taiwan separatists know they can neither persuade the mainland to grant them independence nor win a war of secession with it. So, they have convinced themselves that the United States can be relied upon to intervene to defend their defiance of ‘One China’ or help them formalize its de facto partition. This belief enables them both to keep defense spending low and to shift the risks of provoking a bloody rendezvous with Chinese nationalism onto the United States. But China is a great power, and, in Taiwan, Beijing would be fighting in what the world – including Washington – has formally acknowledged is Chinese territory, not a third country like Korea or Vietnam. Americans might well think twice about going to war with a nuclear-armed China to detach territory from it.”

It is precisely misconceptions by the three parties about each other that seem to be leading to war. Recall that few expected the explosion of WWI, since economies then were also interconnected, as were even ruling families.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

Thinking that Joe Biden would ever go to war with China over Taiwan is like thinking the Pope is about to go to war with the Catholic Church over communion.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Thinking that Joe Biden would ever go to war with China over Taiwan is like thinking the Pope is about to go to war with the Catholic Church over communion.

I believe only lunatics would go to war with China over Taiwan, yet clearly many here seem to advocate policies that would lead to war if China acts more vigorously to force unification or pressure Taiwan.

More importantly, in both the Biden and Trump State Departments there are/were those who actively push a policy to force Taiwanese chip and other high tech companies to “disengage” and stop selling goods to their main customers on the mainland — a policy excruciating to Taiwan companies (who profit greatly from trade with China) and deeply upsetting to the million Taiwan residents living on the mainland running many businesses there.

Selling more and newer jet fighters to Taiwan (which will make no difference in an actual conflict) or sailing occasional naval ships off China’s coasts in the Taiwan straits, are also policies that will likely lead to conflicts, accidental or intentional.

It seems strange to imagine any U.S. Administration would intervene, including the past one ... or seek out conflict or increase tensions. Yet we have already seen intentional ratcheting up of tensions from the U.S. side. Unfortunately indications are that conflict is increasingly possible without a believable reaffirmation of our respect for the “One China” policy and for China’s “red lines” concerning Taiwan. Taiwan too must better understand its own untenable position, and that the U.S. will not and cannot “save” it.

 

[Mac-7]

Why would China want war with us? We are their number one customer, we owe them a ton of money. they are extending there reach in many Asian areas. lots of people to feed in China. Cant judge the future, but don't see any reason to panic now..

I agree those are all excellent reasons for the CCP and Chinese people to want to maintain good relations with the U.S., and to delay any final resolution of the Taiwan issue.

It is really hard for Americans to grasp the intensity of feeling in China about Taiwan. The U.S. is not the only player who can underestimate this nationalist fervor by overplaying its hand there.

I’ve been to Taiwan and loved the island. But I think the Taiwanese themselves naively think they can depend on the U.S.A. I think some of their political leaders are drifting away from reality. In recent peaceful and very prosperous years many Taiwanese (like the HongKong students) have developed their own special (but not very realistic) culture. In terms of “identity politics” Taiwan is moving away from even considering themselves “Chinese.” There are many cultural and political reasons for this. Among them, median per capita individual wealth in Taiwan is at $70,191, higher than the U.S. at $65,904, and of course some five times higher than in China. Professor Chas Freeman put it this way:

“The people of Taiwan built the rule of law and the democracy they now enjoy pretty much on their own, though with quiet, unacknowledged American support. They know what control by outsiders feels like and they have no desire to feel it again. On the other hand, they have had many decades to pursue a strategy toward the mainland that might preserve their autonomy without American military backing. They have not done so. Instead of facing the ineluctable realities of their dilemma, they have counted on a Hollywood-style rescue from it by the naval equivalent of the U.S. Cavalry.

“Taiwan separatists know they can neither persuade the mainland to grant them independence nor win a war of secession with it. So, they have convinced themselves that the United States can be relied upon to intervene to defend their defiance of ‘One China’ or help them formalize its de facto partition. This belief enables them both to keep defense spending low and to shift the risks of provoking a bloody rendezvous with Chinese nationalism onto the United States. But China is a great power, and, in Taiwan, Beijing would be fighting in what the world – including Washington – has formally acknowledged is Chinese territory, not a third country like Korea or Vietnam. Americans might well think twice about going to war with a nuclear-armed China to detach territory from it.”

It is precisely misconceptions by the three parties about each other that seem to be leading to war. Recall that few expected the explosion of WWI, since economies then were also interconnected, as were even ruling families.

china is merely exercising the brute power that globalists have given them and that apologists such as yourself make excuses for

how do you explain away the artificial islands that china created and now uses to claim international waters that do not belong to them?

popular opinion within china probably supports war to uphold their claims in the south china sea also

the chinese people have been brainwashed for 70 and are now like spoiled children demanding everything they see.

you think the way to insure peace is through weakness and subservience

and as long as you are willing to allow china to be masters of the world that policy will work

but the cost will be too high in my opinion

 

[MeBelle]

Please stay on topic.

 

[Mac-7]

There is nothing worth fighting for in Tom's world;

I think that is certainly a true statement

He and many others are globalists who illogically think America can survive in isolation no matter what happens in asia and africa

But the two ideas are incompatible

already we are totally dependent on china for our basic medicines and electronic devices and so much more

in a crisis china could and certainly would cut us off overnight

yet he does not believe that china would ever take advantage of our weakness to dominate the world

in fact the china apologists bristle at the very suggestion that there is anything to fear from the Middle Kingdom.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

Thinking that Joe Biden would ever go to war with China over Taiwan is like thinking the Pope is about to go to war with the Catholic Church over communion.

I believe only lunatics would go to war with China over Taiwan, yet clearly many here seem to advocate policies that would lead to war if China acts more vigorously to force unification or pressure Taiwan.

More importantly, in both the Biden and Trump State Departments there are/were those who actively push a policy to force Taiwanese chip and other high tech companies to “disengage” and stop selling goods to their main customers on the mainland — a policy excruciating to Taiwan companies (who profit greatly from trade with China) and deeply upsetting to the million Taiwan residents living on the mainland running many businesses there.

Selling more and newer jet fighters to Taiwan (which will make no difference in an actual conflict) or sailing occasional naval ships off China’s coasts in the Taiwan straits, are also policies that will likely lead to conflicts, accidental or intentional.

It seems strange to imagine any U.S. Administration would intervene, including the past one ... or seek out conflict or increase tensions. Yet we have already seen intentional ratcheting up of tensions from the U.S. side. Unfortunately indications are that conflict is increasingly possible without a believable reaffirmation of our respect for the “One China” policy and for China’s “red lines” concerning Taiwan. Taiwan too must better understand its own untenable position, and that the U.S. will not and cannot “save” it.

Are you a member of the Chinese communist party? I have studied your rhetoric here, and it certainly leads me to that conclusion.

Biden would never risk war with China because he would never bite the hand that feeds him. That does not mean that the destruction of those freedoms the Taiwanese enjoy is desirable, even though you clearly see the imposition of a ruthless totalitarian system upon them as a good thing.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

This discussion about Taiwan, in my opinion, is being hijacked by folks who refuse to stay on topic or accept the clear and specific CDZ rules that explicitly state:

No Name Calling Or Putting Down Posters
No Trolling ...
No Hijacking
No Personal Attacks
No Neg Repping

They have asked me questions about my life and hyperventilate about who “pays” me, etc.

I will not pay any attention to such nonsense. It is irrelevant to the subject matter.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

This discussion about Taiwan, in my opinion, is being hijacked by folks who refuse to stay on topic or accept the clear and specific CDZ rules that explicitly state:

No Name Calling Or Putting Down Posters
No Trolling ...
No Hijacking
No Personal Attacks
No Neg Repping

They have asked me questions about my life and hyperventilate about who “pays” me, etc.

I will not pay any attention to such nonsense. It is irrelevant to the subject matter.

Who called you names? Who attacked you? Who did not talk about the subject matter? Who Neg repped you?


When you are so clearly in favor of the expansion of ruthless Chinese communism, asking you if you are a member of the Chinese Communist party seems only natural. That isn't a personal attack, nor is it hyperventilating. It is merely a question regarding your reference point as to why you promote Chinese Communist interests and support the destruction of human rights in Taiwan.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

This discussion about Taiwan, in my opinion, is being hijacked by folks who refuse to stay on topic or accept the clear and specific CDZ rules that explicitly state:

No Name Calling Or Putting Down Posters
No Trolling ...
No Hijacking
No Personal Attacks
No Neg Repping

They have asked me questions about my life and hyperventilate about who “pays” me, etc.

I will not pay any attention to such nonsense. It is irrelevant to the subject matter.

Who called you names? Who attacked you? Who did not talk about the subject matter? Who Neg repped you?


When you are so clearly in favor of the expansion of ruthless Chinese communism, asking you if you are a member of the Chinese Communist party seems only natural. That isn't a personal attack, nor is it hyperventilating. It is merely a question regarding your reference point as to why you promote Chinese Communist interests and support the destruction of human rights in Taiwan.

It is NOT related to the discussion of possible war over Taiwan, but is a personal matter. This is obvious. It would be like my asking you, or accusing you, of being a Republican or a Trump supporter paid by Americans to slander China. Nobody seems to be stopping you or others from debating in this matter, despite this being a supposed “clean debate zone.”

Therefore I am sure you and others will continue as you have to put words in my mouth. For example you said that I “support the destruction of human rights in Taiwan.” That is a slander, one which I am not even interested in wasting time to refute.

 

[José]

The chinese leadership drew the line on the taiwanese issue more than 3 decades ago:

"The day Taiwan declares independence will be the day the war will start."

The idea of a war between China and Taiwan is overkill.

It will be an invasion that will last 48 hours at best and no country in the world will be crazy enough to lift a finger to help Taiwan militarily.

This doesn't mean China won't pay a heavy price for the invasion. Taiwan will be completely cut off from the world economy and China will have killed the golden goose.

What Taiwan desperately needs now and in the future can be summed up by two words:

Cooler heads.

Cooler heads at the top of the government.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

It is NOT related to the discussion of possible war over Taiwan, but is a personal matter. This is obvious. It would be like my asking you, or accusing you, of being a Republican or a Trump supporter paid by Americans to slander China. Nobody seems to be stopping you or others from debating in this matter, despite this being a supposed “clean debate zone.”

Therefore I am sure you and others will continue as you have to put words in my mouth. For example you said that I “support the destruction of human rights in Taiwan.” That is a slander, one which I am not even interested in wasting time to refute.

You support mainland control over Taiwan. That IS supporting the destruction of human rights -- incontrovertibly so.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The chinese leadership drew the line on the taiwanese issue more than 3 decades ago:

"The day Taiwan declares independence will be the day the war will start."

The idea of a war between China and Taiwan is overkill.

It will be an invasion that will last 48 hours at best and no country in the world will be crazy enough to lift a finger to help Taiwan militarily.

This doesn't mean China won't pay a heavy price for the invasion. Taiwan will be completely cut off from the world economy and China will have killed the golden goose.

What Taiwan desperately needs now and in the future can be summed up by two words:

Cooler heads.

Cooler heads at the top of the government.

This is an interesting comment and one which I mostly agree with.

Some people ask “What’s the big deal? Taiwan is already de facto independent!”

But it is not. If it were truly sovereign it would be recognized internationally as such, and — more important — would be able to invite U.S. naval ships and soldiers to be based on its land.

This is one example of what the CCP made clear over 30 years ago that China would never tolerate.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

Why would China want war with us? We are their number one customer, we owe them a ton of money. they are extending there reach in many Asian areas. lots of people to feed in China. Cant judge the future, but don't see any reason to panic now..

The issue isn't whether or not they want a war with us. The issue is one of their calculation of our willingness to go to war in order to preserve the human rights enjoyed by the Taiwanese. Now that the Chinese have an ally in the regime installed in the White house, they may seize the opportunity to make moves to end the degree of autonomy the Taiwanese enjoy just as they did in Hong Kong. The op supports the "One China" policy whereby the communist jack boot stomps all over Taiwan as it did Hong Kong.

 

[HenryBHough]

China is not interested in waging war for Taiwan.
Why bother? They understand there are two realistic possibilities in the near term:

1. No willingness of any nation or bloc of nations to intervene.

2. China understands it has 4 years of freedom to do whatever it wants without even a word of protest from anywhere other than from Taiwan itself. Once-free nations are shrinking their armed forces; China is grown its own.

Remember, most countries in the world think of time only in terms of election cycles.
China thinks of time in terms of thousands of years.

 

[Dogmaphobe]

China is not interested in waging war for Taiwan.
Why bother? They understand there are two realistic possibilities in the near term:

1. No willingness of any nation or bloc of nations to intervene.

2. China understands it has 4 years of freedom to do whatever it wants without even a word of protest from anywhere other than from Taiwan itself. Once-free nations are shrinking their armed forces; China is grown its own.

Remember, most countries in the world think of time only in terms of election cycles.
China thinks of time in terms of thousands of years.

I fully expect them to be flexing their muscles to an ever increasing degree over the next 4 years when it comes to Taiwan as well as utilizing the internet in varying ways towards that end.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

I don’t want to discuss HongKong at great length, but there are similarities here in that the CCP has held out the 50-year “One Country/Two Systems” agreements with the British to encourage the return of tiny “leased” Hong Kong ... as a model for a possible re-integration of Taiwan.

That model is not now acceptable to most Taiwanese, but a similar (stronger and more democratic) settlement is probably necessary (and possible) if Taiwan is to avoid the catastrophe of war and invasion. It will be much more likely to be negotiated if the U.S. abides by the letter of its agreements with China on Taiwan and makes clear to Taiwanese that we will not and cannot “save” them.

“One Country/Two Systems” actually worked very well for over 20 years and probably would have continued working much longer if student demonstrators hadn’t resorted to raising U.S. and British flags and throwing firebombs in HongKong demanding immediate “full political democracy” — something they never had under the British. For two decades people in HK organized what became huge and important commemorations of the Tiananmen Square uprising. This had a very positive influence in all of China. We can now only hope against hope such demonstrations will be permitted again after the Covid shutdowns end.

As is, despite the crackdown and recent arrests, and the imposition of a mainland security treaty (after HongKong promised yet failed to pass its own), there will probably remain a much freer internet and greater free speech rights and more access to world television stations in HongKong than in the Mainland for many years.

The future evolution of China under XiJinping certainly at the moment seems gloomy, even terrifying, from the point of view of individual rights and political democracy.

Still, if there is an improvement in U.S.-China relations and “cooler heads” in Taiwan emerge, there are good grounds for hoping that a decent and much more durable agreement guaranteeing “multi-party democracy” and free speech in Taiwan can be reached.

Taiwan, after all, does not share a highly populous and permeable land border with China, has its own Army as well as police and judiciary, is an island with its own complex of ethnic groups, has a rich multi-layered Confucian culture, and its democracy was forged in struggle against a (Guomindang) dictatorship.

All reasons for hope that their de facto independence and democracy might be preserved under a future revised “One China/Two Systems” agreement ... where HongKong’s has faltered.