CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

[Tom Paine 1949]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

 

[Moonglow]

China does seem emboldened yet reserved on doing anything but flexing it's muscle..

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

“Why not help?” — What kind of “help” are you proposing?

The author believes — and I agree with him here — that open military moves or recognition by the U.S. of Taiwan independence will lead to a devastating conflict in which Taiwan will be destroyed. Such a war cannot be won. Taiwan is a small island just off the coast of China, which is a nuclear and industrial power of 1.4 billion people. The 13 colonies sat on the edge of a huge continent across an ocean from Britain in the 18th Century of sailing ships. The Founding Fathers were practical men who knew they had a chance to win.

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Another huge Trump fuck up!

He should have sold Taiwan 40 ICBMs and a few nuclear submarines.

 

[Indeependent]

Hmmmm...Made In The USA!
Nah!

 

[cnm]

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Why not help?

Because slavery showed the Declaration to be bullshit. You want to go to war for bullshit?

 

[jackflash]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

The two hot spots on the globe are N. Korea & the island of Taiwan. N. Korea is bordered by BOTH China & Russia, plus the Vladivostok naval base/military installation is located due N/E about 90 miles as a crow flies from N. Korea's northern border. Any military action by U.S. &/or allied nations in N. Korea would just be inviting disaster to befall mankind. Taiwan is about 100 miles off the Chinese mainland & far enough away from Russia that Russia does not need to panic about U.S./allied military spill over onto their turf. The problem with entering into war with China is that China & Russia have long ago formulated a MUTUAL ASSISTANCE PACK in case one or the other are attacked by the USA. As one can plainly see, ANY military action against either China &/or Russia by the USA, that America would quickly find herself over her head in scalding water.

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Why not help?

Because slavery showed the Declaration to be bullshit. You want to go to war for bullshit?

So we aren't independent?

 

[night_son]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

China bots piss me off. Americans have endured enough pandemonium and tragedy this last year. There's no need for propagandized fear mongering about a communist nation our (America's) military could annihilate within the span of hours.

Taiwan itself holds little to no real strategic or economic value for the United States. The Japan/South Korea/Indonesia/Australia "box" has China thoroughly fenced in and contained. That being said, if the leaders of our new government chose to honor any or all pacts to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression, provided the Chinese invade it, then in less than twenty-four hours eighty percent of China's middling military capability would be reduced to ash. If for the briefest of moments American diplomatic corps and/or military commanders fed by reconnaissance satellites believed China was preparing to launch a nuclear strike against CONUS, then much of mainland China would become a vitrified parking lot about forty-five minutes later. That's about it. That is what a war between China and the United States would look like.

The US: 5,800
China: 300

The US: 11
China: 2

US global military allies: north of 100
Chinese military allies: possibly 3 to 10

Take your anti-American fear mongering propaganda elsewhere.

 

[cnm]

So we aren't independent?

Independent hypocrites. Hypocrisy is nothing to go to war over.

 

[cnm]

US global military allies: north of 100

My ribs, my ribs!

Let me know when you're going to crack funnies like that so I can put my corset on.

 

[alang1216]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

Our country is divided so establishing a single, coherent national policy towards China is only getting harder. China is united, for the most part, behind their authoritarian leaders and will remain that way so long as China's economy continues to grow. Unfortunately for them, that is not possible so they will continue to look for ways to expand their economy overseas.

They are very xenophobic and nationalistic but, unless we provoke them, thanks Pompao, they will play the long game. Invading Taiwan would cost much and gain little.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The ChiCom apologists are the lowest of the low

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

So we aren't independent?

Independent hypocrites. Hypocrisy is nothing to go to war over.

What hypocracy?

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

“Why not help?” — What kind of “help” are you proposing?

The author believes — and I agree with him here — that open military moves or recognition by the U.S. of Taiwan independence will lead to a devastating conflict in which Taiwan will be destroyed. Such a war cannot be won. Taiwan is a small island just off the coast of China, which is a nuclear and industrial power of 1.4 billion people. The 13 colonies sat on the edge of a huge continent across an ocean from Britain in the 18th Century of sailing ships. The Founding Fathers were practical men who knew they had a chance to win.

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

What would Thomas Paine thing about the plight of the Taiwanese and the hands of the Red Communist Chinese Brutal Authoritarian Despots? They should submit?

It is Common Sense.

Accordingly, you should change your ID as you do The Father of the American Revolution a great dis-service.

He would be sick at your embrace of oppression of people as I am.

 

[Mac-7]

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

You sound like nevil chamberlain in 1939

The tiawanese are on the verge of voting for independence from mainland china

They know the risk of war

so the issue is not fake concern over damage to taiwan, but rather your belief that china is too strong for any nation, even America, to oppose.

And therefore appeasement is the “smart“ move in your opinion

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

Paradoxically, the louder the U.S. becomes in defense of Taipei, the more China is apt to invade it.

responsiblestatecraft.org

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

Our country is divided so establishing a single, coherent national policy towards China is only getting harder. China is united, for the most part, behind their authoritarian leaders and will remain that way so long as China's economy continues to grow. Unfortunately for them, that is not possible so they will continue to look for ways to expand their economy overseas.

They are very xenophobic and nationalistic but, unless we provoke them, thanks Pompao, they will play the long game. Invading Taiwan would cost much and gain little.

Think semicounductors / chips.

 

[Mac-7]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

“Why not help?” — What kind of “help” are you proposing?

The author believes — and I agree with him here — that open military moves or recognition by the U.S. of Taiwan independence will lead to a devastating conflict in which Taiwan will be destroyed. Such a war cannot be won. Taiwan is a small island just off the coast of China, which is a nuclear and industrial power of 1.4 billion people. The 13 colonies sat on the edge of a huge continent across an ocean from Britain in the 18th Century of sailing ships. The Founding Fathers were practical men who knew they had a chance to win.

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

What would Thomas Paine thing about the plight of the Tiawanese and the hands of the Red Communist Chinese Despots? They should submit?

It is Common Sense.

Accordingly, you should change your ID as you do The Father of the American Revolution a great dis-service.

The Taiwan question is more about the fate of America than Taiwan

if we allow china to get what it wants by the threat of military force there will be no end to just as there was with hitler

 

[Unkotare]

...

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. ....

A few baseless assumptions there.