CDZ Trump issues a "take it, or leave it" ultimatum to Congress. Has he lost what little mind he had?

[usmbguest5318]

What is Trump thinking by issuing an ultimatum to Congress? Today, Trump told Congress vote on the bill by tomorrow, Friday. As if? What is he going to do? Not sign if House doesn't pass it next week and the Senate some time after that?

Give me a break! I think Trump thinks the government is like Trump Organization and he's the boss, so everyone must kowtow to his command. Truly, the man should have taken Mr. Kahn's offer to lend his a copy of the Constitution to Trump.

Trump's issued the ultimatum, and I dare him to live up to it if the House doesn't vote on it by COB March 24, 2017. Truly I'd like to see the House call his bluff. It's high time someone does. Trump, after but a week or so, of negotiating is fed up with trying to collaborate his way to a win-win deal. I guess that shouldn't surprise anyone given Trump's past demonstrations of his selfishness. Trump's got health insurance and he doesn't have stand to make "big money" on whether health insurance reform happens or doesn't. HIs employees don't get health insurance from an exchange.

Over cocktails earlier today, someone resignedly asked, "Why did Ryan start with the ACA repeal instead of something less contentious?" From a political strategy standpoint, there were a variety of plausible answers to that question that we discussed.

• Among them, my personal favorite was that P. Ryan, who's not all that keen on Trump in the first place, wanted an early vehicle for handing Trump his comeuppance, so to speak, and to make it clear that Trump will not bring to Washington his authoritarian approach and find a "welcome mat" for it.
  
  I liked this proposed answer because the fact of the matter is that Trump has shown none of the leadership that one would expect from a man who's been CEO of a big company. (That, of course, is because he hasn't been such a CEO; he's only the CEO of a very successful family business that isn't run like a big company.)
  • Is the POTUS the most politically powerful man in Washington? Yes.
  • Did Trump do his job and take the lead on crafting the legislative agenda for the bill? No.
  • Did Trump make sure the bill conforms to the grandiose health insurance provisions that he promised? No, and it doesn't.
  • Did Trump build consensus among House and Senate members? No, and there is none.
  • Did Trump use the power of his office to govern? No. All he's done is issue edicts.
  • Did Trump do his job and sell specific provisions of it to the electorate? No. Most of the electorate doesn't like the ACHA's provisions and impacts.

What has Trump done with the power of his office? He's used it to evangelize about himself and how great he is, he's used it to play the "blame game," and he's used it to make utterly specious claims about what someone else has done. That's it. The man is a political neophyte and his handling of the ACHA/O-care repeal and replace process shows just how much of one he is. His novelty with "varsity" politics is the ultimate cause of the ongoing failure of the House to arrive a consensus on the design and passage of the ACHA.

So, what might someone with experience have done? For one thing, they'd have conceived to "trash" O-care in two phases: the repeal and the replacement. The nature of health insurance/healthcare is such that it is one of the few occasions in which putting the cart before the horse is called for. Trump, however, isn't all that smart or innovative, which is among the reasons he should never have been made POTUS to begin with. (Of course, voters who aren't particularly savvy couldn't tell that for themselves and they refused to believe the people who were telling them as much...so here we are....)

Were Trump both smart and not a political novice, he'd have led the Administration, the Congress and the nation on the following course of action for repealing and replacing O-care:

1. Have his own team of genuine experts compose the draft legislation for the replacement of O-care. He'd have had them start that process back in July when he won the GOP nomination. It'd have been cheap to do. Six experts, one of whom might have been the woman he's emplaced as the head of Medicare/Medicaid, perhaps letting her lead the development effort. Pay the team of six $200K each (depending on the staffing model, that's the most he'd have to spend -- $200K each assumes each team member is principal-grade -- not including expenses) for the period of August 1st to Nov. 10th. (Experts are used to mitigate one's own inexperience with the subject matter and the development process.)
2. "Socialize" the draft at various milestone points during its composition. That would allow him to initiate the consensus building as well as obtain feedback from the public. It also would have allowed him to show a degree of knowledge and understanding about the specific subject matter that he discusses in each "socialization session." ("Socialize" --> "consulting speak" for "communicate and discuss with stakeholders in the hope of receiving constructive criticism.")
3. Continue the development process, and after being inaugurated, announce a delivery date to Congress of the proposed legislation. On the day of the announcement, as a part of the continuous improvement and "socialization" process, release the draft in whatever state it's in...put "TBD" in places where your team knows they have to refine the finished product or in places where one is unsure of which of the options one has been considering one would like feedback from the public, news analysts, Congress, etc. Just tell people that those details are still in process and that if they have something they would like to contribute, "now" is the time to speak up. Trust me. They will speak up, and in a constructive way, if they're encouraged to do so.
4. Submit the finished (amended as needed) legislation to Congress on the day promised.
5. Use the Presidential "bully pulpit" to:
   • Keep Congress in line.
   • Obtain whatever support one can from the opposing party.
   • Explain to the electorate the reasoning behind any controversial aspects of the legislation.
   • Explain the the replacement bill will only be signed and take effect after the repeal legislation has been passed.
6. See the replacement bill passed and sign it.
7. Instruct Congress to then pass the O-care repeal. From that point on, the ball is in their court. The replacement that "you," POTUS promised to your voters is done and ready go. Congress can "dick around" all they want with figuring out how to get the repeal done.

But, you see, not only does Trump no understand politics, he also doesn't actually know how to lead huge groups of people who don't have to cover to his authority position as boss. The man's only ever used the authoritative style of managing, so how could he know any other way? Really skilled business leaders and politicians do know other ways, ways that facilitate building consensus among fractured groups of people who ultimately have a common goal, even though they have very different ideas about how to achieve that goal. Quite simply, Trump is not a man who knows how to lead. It just so happens that he's been the boss. The two are not the same things.​

• The other idea among several that were advanced among the people at the luncheon was something of a "conspiracy theory" sort of idea. It was that P. Ryan knows "what's what" regarding Trump's exposure on the "Russia" issue and what he knows suggests that Trump won't be in office very long anyway, so handing him a defeat sets up the playing field for once Trump is history.
  
  Positioning and already weak Trump with a loss out of the gate on health insurance/healthcare, and then highlighting how ineffectual Trump is, will reduce Trump's popularity even further and make it even easier to commence impeachment proceedings on even less legally rigorous grounds. Remember, Congress -- the House and the Senate -- don't have to follow anything but their "gut" to vote "yes" to impeach and to convict. They can hold the hearings and argue "all day" using rules of law, but they don't have to vote using rule of law any more than common citizens have to use good sense in the voting booth. The more he can create a "gut feeling" that Trump should be ousted, the easier it'll be for rank and file Congressional members to vote "yes," especially since most Democrats would love to be offered the opportunity to do so.
  
  That's a political game at which everyone in Washington is far more experienced than is Trump and every single person on his core team of lackeys. And let's face facts: everyone on The Hill would sooner see a President Pence (or even a President Ryan if it were to go that far) than a President Trump. It's become clear to everyone who matters most that Trump is a clown. They have to indulge him because he is POTUS, right now. They don't have to keep him around. Both Pence and Ryan are Republicans and the GOP held Congress isn't going anywhere anytime soon,. so the sooner they can get rid of Trump, the better. It's just a matter of fomenting the political appetite for doing so.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Someone needs to tell him that Congress is an EQUAL part of the government with the President and the Supreme Court.

 

[Marion Morrison]

Good OP.

It's "led" not lead.


The second part is a lot of speculation and daydreaming.

Three "words" : Shoulda coulda woulda.

 

[candycorn]

It’ll pass. Ryan’s Speakership and clout are on the line too and that is more important than anything Trump dreams he can do to a congressman from a protected district. The problem with gerrymandering is that it opens the door for someone but it’s very hard to push them back through it the other way. Americans like returning people to Congress. Anyway, They are much more afraid of Ryan than Trump.

 

[Vandalshandle]

It's kind of amusing watching Trump get a basic education in politics. Unfortunately for him, he will learn nothing from this, and simply bounce from political disaster to political disaster...sort of like in a pinball machine.

 

[TheOldSchool]

Someone needs to tell him that Congress is an EQUAL part of the government with the President and the Supreme Court.

Republicans in congress are scared shitless right now. They were as sure as anybody that Hillary would win, and all the strategies they planned are completely screwed now. They had no backup plan. Trump is smart to abuse their terror.

But luckily, and ironically, it's republicans who will save us from Trumpcare. Because to the alt-right, Trumpcare doesn't do enough to kill healthcare. They want people with pre-existing conditions to die, the elderly to lose Medicaid, and the poor to lose access to medical help. The Freedom Caucus, for all the wrong reasons, will save us from Trumpcare.

 

[BULLDOG]

It's kind of amusing watching Trump get a basic education in politics. Unfortunately for him, he will learn nothing from this, and simply bounce from political disaster to political disaster...sort of like in a pinball machine.

I still say the Republican bill sucks, will hurt a lot of people, and is nothing like what Trump promised. Trump sees these things too, and will jump at the chance to distance himself from it. If it passes, of course he will brag about it and claim it's wonderful, but if it fails he will have a sigh of relief and forget about the whole healthcare issue.

 

[Vandalshandle]

It's kind of amusing watching Trump get a basic education in politics. Unfortunately for him, he will learn nothing from this, and simply bounce from political disaster to political disaster...sort of like in a pinball machine.

I still say the Republican bill sucks, will hurt a lot of people, and is nothing like what Trump promised. Trump sees these things too, and will jump at the chance to distance himself from it. If it passes, of course he will brag about it and claim it's wonderful, but if it fails he will have a sigh of relief and forget about the whole healthcare issue.

Naw. he doesn't have the maturity to do that. He will go on a twitter binge, and blame and threaten everyone. Just watch.

 

[usmbguest5318]

Good OP.

It's "led" not lead.

TY

Are you referring to this?

he'd have lead the Administration

If so, TY for pointing it out. Correction made.

 

[BULLDOG]

It's kind of amusing watching Trump get a basic education in politics. Unfortunately for him, he will learn nothing from this, and simply bounce from political disaster to political disaster...sort of like in a pinball machine.

I still say the Republican bill sucks, will hurt a lot of people, and is nothing like what Trump promised. Trump sees these things too, and will jump at the chance to distance himself from it. If it passes, of course he will brag about it and claim it's wonderful, but if it fails he will have a sigh of relief and forget about the whole healthcare issue.

Naw. he doesn't have the maturity to do that. He will go on a twitter binge, and blame and threaten everyone. Just watch.

You could be right. We should know pretty soon. I'm not sure if his twitter binges are actually related to individual events, of if they are related to some recurring hormone imbalance. I'm sure his twitter activity could be easily charted on a calendar, with notations for heavy flow, or light flow.

 

[usmbguest5318]

It's kind of amusing watching Trump get a basic education in politics. Unfortunately for him, he will learn nothing from this, and simply bounce from political disaster to political disaster...sort of like in a pinball machine.

It's kind of amusing watching Trump get a basic education in politics.

FWIW, it's really not politics as much as it is applying to the political process the collaborate leadership skills and basic initiative implementation methodology that highly successful business people use every day. It's the sort of thing that a third-year management consultant will have mastered.

Sure there are other approaches to successfully achieving one's goals, ways that are far less methodical, for lack of a better word, but those ways are also riskier. That is, they are less assured to yield the required results.

The difference between the approach I outlined in the OP and what Trump's doing is that the strategic objectives of the sort of approach he's followed is one that's geared toward producing good results in terms of how things appear to others along the transformative road, and it doesn't unequivocally define the "destination." The approach I outlined allows the perception to derive from the outcome.

• Trump: We're going somewhere and we're going to look good going there. Tell me where we are going and how to get there because I don't know.
• Me: We're going "here," and we'll look like we know what we're doing getting there, but we at times not look like a million bucks getting there. Even so, we'll arrive on time, in one piece and it'll be clear to all our passengers that we did the right thing. The car may pick up a minor dings and some mud and bug splatter along the way.

Trump's way is typical of marketing people. My approach is typical of management people. Neither approach is 100% the right one 100% of the time; rather there are times and situations in which each one is the 100% right approach to predominantly (90%+) apply. Given that the campaign has been won, it's time to put the marketing approach on the back burner and get down to more structured, more precisely defined, goals and approaches.

 

[usmbguest5318]

Someone needs to tell him that Congress is an EQUAL part of the government with the President and the Supreme Court.

Republicans in congress are scared shitless right now. They were as sure as anybody that Hillary would win, and all the strategies they planned are completely screwed now. They had no backup plan. Trump is smart to abuse their terror.

But luckily, and ironically, it's republicans who will save us from Trumpcare. Because to the alt-right, Trumpcare doesn't do enough to kill healthcare. They want people with pre-existing conditions to die, the elderly to lose Medicaid, and the poor to lose access to medical help. The Freedom Caucus, for all the wrong reasons, will save us from Trumpcare.

all the strategies they planned are completely screwed now.

And that is a manifestation of voters not electing genuine leaders. Hillary lost in Nov. 2016. Congress had from then to Jan 20, 2017, three months, to collaborate with Trump and put together a leadership agenda to replace whatever opposition strategy they'd expected to implement. They didn't do that. That they didn't do that is why we observe now the chaos we do, and it's how I know that while they are technically our political leaders, they aren't in fact leaders. No serious leader, no principal committed to achieving material and measurable results would have let that happen.

I've said it before. The fault rests with the voters. Voters have to be able to discern true leaders from "smoke and mirrors" leaders, and they have to have the integrity to know that not being sure, they should refrain from voting and defer to the people who can tell. Merely thinking one is right about who is and who is not a leader does not in any way make that person actually be a leader.

 

[usmbguest5318]

It’ll pass. Ryan’s Speakership and clout are on the line too and that is more important than anything Trump dreams he can do to a congressman from a protected district. The problem with gerrymandering is that it opens the door for someone but it’s very hard to push them back through it the other way. Americans like returning people to Congress. Anyway, They are much more afraid of Ryan than Trump.

It might pass. If it does, it'll be for any number of reasons, foremost among them being appearances, other than the right ones.

Ryan’s Speakership and clout are on the line

Yes, if it doesn't pass, Ryan will take a hit for it. His failing, however, is party leadership oriented, but mostly it's letting a crappy bill get this far rather than telling his members, "No, this is a piece of crap, fix it or it doesn't get out of committee and onto the floor. He had no good reason not to do that because the fact is that the GOP have waited six years to be able to replace O-care. Waiting a month or two more to get a really good bill wasn't going to hurt a thing. Truly, as long as they got a good bill drafted and passed by the 2018 election cycle, even if it's the day before the election, they were "good to go."

Indeed, politically speaking, holding off the passage until late in the 2018 cycle would have been among the best things to happen for the GOP's fortunes in that cycle. The House would hold all its seats, perhaps pick up a few more. The Senate Republicans up for re-election would have sailed back into office just for the sake of ensuring the replacement bill passes. Dems likely would have lost some seats as partisan voters send more GOP senators to Washington to give the GOP a filibuster-proof majority.

Even though Ryan will take a ding from a non-passage, he can recover from it because he's one of those "protected" Congressmen and because there's really nobody else in the House GOP who could get voted into the Speakership. Remember all the rancor surrounding choosing a replacement for Boehner? Those same people are still in Congress. Also, even though Congress has a collectively low approval rating, voters place the blame on "everyone else's Congressman," but no on their own. Lastly, Trump has real credibility problems, and he still has not unified his own party, which is part of what is very much his job to do. In contrast, Ryan doesn't have a credibility problem, and it's not his job to unify the GOP, but it his job to get GOP Representatives elected (re-elected). Thus, if Ryan "gets on his soapbox" and blames someone else for the failure, he'll be believed because he's both believable, serious and genuine appearing, and likable, whereas Trump is none of those things, except likable in small doses.