RCP poll average (weeks ago Hillary ahead by 8%) shrinks to just 2.2%, with a week still to go

Little-Acorn

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RCPavg_01Nov2016.jpg


The RealClearPolitics average of polls has had Hillary ahead by 6 to 8 percentage points for the last 6 months.

But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes, her lead has steadily shrunk to just 2%. And there's still a week to go.

Her lead in electoral votes is also shrinking.

And there's still a week to go.

The bell is tolling, Hillary... it's tolling for you.
 

sealybobo

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View attachment 96243

The RealClearPolitics average of polls has had Hillary ahead by 6 to 8 percentage points for the last 6 months.

But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes, her lead has steadily shrunk to just 2%. And there's still a week to go.

Her lead in electoral votes is also shrinking.

And there's still a week to go.

The bell is tolling, Hillary... it's tolling for you.
You Republicans are hilarious. First you don't believe the polls but now you do?

I can show you dozens of 2008 and 2012 polls that say you aren't to be taken seriously.
 

cereal_killer

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He's up by 5-6 points in reality. The RCP is using a majority of polls that weigh Dem + 10. What does that mean? A majority of polls are telling the sheep that Dems will show up at the polls in record numbers. Record numbers folks means they are saying her turnout will be GREATER than Obama's in 2012 by a longshot.

Now if you believe that, well good luck...you're going to be very disappointed come November 8. Don't say you weren't told how the polls were manipulated and remember to wipe the shock off your face.
 

JimBowie1958

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He's up by 5-6 points in reality. The RCP is using a majority of polls that weigh Dem + 10. What does that mean? A majority of polls are telling the sheep that Dems will show up at the polls in record numbers. Record numbers folks means they are saying her turnout will be GREATER than Obama's in 2012 by a longshot.

Now if you believe that, well good luck...you're going to be very disappointed come November 8. Don't say you weren't told how the polls were manipulated and remember to wipe the shock off your face.

The Real Clear Politics average is also stacked and leaves out many polls that showed Trump in the lead.

Take this one for example that showed Trump +2 on Oct 23, and the RCP list of polls does not include it. They are also including polls that are obviously over sampling Democrats and are way out there out liars. What reputable group would include such bullshit and leave out good polls that support the other candidate?

Hacks and shills, that is who.
 

cereal_killer

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He's up by 5-6 points in reality. The RCP is using a majority of polls that weigh Dem + 10. What does that mean? A majority of polls are telling the sheep that Dems will show up at the polls in record numbers. Record numbers folks means they are saying her turnout will be GREATER than Obama's in 2012 by a longshot.

Now if you believe that, well good luck...you're going to be very disappointed come November 8. Don't say you weren't told how the polls were manipulated and remember to wipe the shock off your face.

The Real Clear Politics average is also stacked and leaves out many polls that showed Trump in the lead.

Take this one for example that showed Trump +2 on Oct 23, and the RCP list of polls does not include it. They are also including polls that are obviously over sampling Democrats and are way out there out liars. What reputable group would include such bullshit and leave out good polls that support the other candidate?

Hacks and shills, that is who.
Problem is people don't want to hear the truth. They wish to live in denial and not accept the facts. They should do themselves the fucking favor and dig deeper into the polling to see what's going on instead of just barking out poll numbers and waving pom poms around. It's mindless deviant behavior.

People really don't want to look at facts even when they are staring at them straight in the face. The numbers don't lie so look at them on a deeper level rather than taking them at face value. It's not hard to see how they are doing this. Fucking ABC/Wapo poll shows Trump surging in the past 8 days by 13 points. Now who the fuck really believes that horseshit?
 

JimBowie1958

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Problem is people don't want to hear the truth. They wish to live in denial and not accept the facts. They should do themselves the fucking favor and dig deeper into the polling to see what's going on instead of just barking out poll numbers and waving pom poms around. It's mindless deviant behavior.

People really don't want to look at facts even when they are staring at them straight in the face. The numbers don't lie so look at them on a deeper level rather than taking them at face value. It's not hard to see how they are doing this. Fucking ABC/Wapo poll shows Trump surging in the past 8 days by 13 points. Now who the fuck really believes that horseshit?
Yeah, people who have to live and work in Natural forces tend to value Reality a lot more than people who live in urban settings where being able to spin fantasy is a much stronger advantage than grasping Reality is among other people.

That is why the liberals control most of our city governments.
 

cereal_killer

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Should also mention that the pollsters are all now showing Trump tied or ahead. That's more bullshit. He was ALWAYS ahead and this is how they are going to preserve their integrity come November 8. The pundits, pollsters and media will all start saying how this 2nd FBI investigation damaged her as the election gets closer. No it didn't, she was always damaged this only drover her numbers down even more. Watch how they spin.

When she loses they'll blame Comey and the Russians. Start writing the script
 

mascale

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LA Times USC is actually a quirky panel that inadvertently became a tracker of Trump likely supporters. Trump is up by 4 in the last two days. Mostly, that is among White Males. LA Times USC also checks who people think will win. Clinton is at 55% and Trump is at 41% in the panel. And now attention turns to Trump's tax returns and the Iraqi army's apparent successes in Mosul. People upset about the ObamaCare premium increases probably have the money to pay them. Republicans would be expected to vote Republican based on that. Everyone else gets some form of subsidy, and even Bill Clinton thinks it needs to be fixed. More people likely agree with Bill Clinton.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

If Clinton ads start playing on Bill Clinton's assessment of ObamaCare, and Trump's condemnation of the Mosul strategy: Then plus the ground game, the margin will likely swing back to Clinton over Trump by 5% with Johnson and Stein at even lesser percentages. There are horrid numbers of Trump problems likely to be repeated in person and in the advertising going into the actual election day. The emails problem is about Weiner's laptop, and the FBI indiscretion.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred."
(Does FBI think any lives matter!?)
 

martybegan

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View attachment 96243

The RealClearPolitics average of polls has had Hillary ahead by 6 to 8 percentage points for the last 6 months.

But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes, her lead has steadily shrunk to just 2%. And there's still a week to go.

Her lead in electoral votes is also shrinking.

And there's still a week to go.

The bell is tolling, Hillary... it's tolling for you.
You Republicans are hilarious. First you don't believe the polls but now you do?

I can show you dozens of 2008 and 2012 polls that say you aren't to be taken seriously.
Once the polls are back in the margins of error, what people have been talking about, the "hidden" Trump vote, comes into play. That and some over adjustment due to perceptions about democratic turnout, which will probably not approach 2012, and will definitely not approach 2008.
 

mascale

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The oft-reported ABC new poll showing Trump ahead is qualified, per the below. The Enthusiasm Gap is back in the last few days.
_______________________________________________
"The tracking poll finds little shift in Clinton's overall support following news of the FBI's renewed look at Clinton e-mails, but strong enthusiasm among her supporters fell behind Trump in combined Saturday and Sunday interviews. By 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are "very enthusiastic" about him, compared with Thursday and Friday when Trump's edge was negligible (53 percent vs. 51 percent)."

"Voter enthusiasm has been in short supply for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump through the fall campaign and continues to lag excitement about candidates on the ballot four years ago. At this point in 2012, 64 percent of Obama supporters said they were "very enthusiastic" about him; Romney was only narrowly behind at 61 percent."

"Trump and Clinton continue to run nearly even in overall vote preferences, with Trump at 46 percent and Clinton 45 percent in a four-way contest in the poll conducted Thursday through Sunday. The margin is a mirror 48-47 Clinton-Trump split when third-party candidates are asked which major-party candidate they lean toward, a comparison which has grown in importance as support declines steadily for Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein."
______________________________________________
NBC polling shows no change at all, Clinton up outside the margin of error. ABC polling is too close to call. LA Times Daybreak panel shows that mostly, no one expect that Trump will win. That is a lopsided Trump supporter panel, inadvertently.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Mosul maybe back in Iraqi hands, way before FBI concludes any groping or probing of the Weiners(?)
 

NYcarbineer

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He's up by 5-6 points in reality. The RCP is using a majority of polls that weigh Dem + 10. What does that mean? A majority of polls are telling the sheep that Dems will show up at the polls in record numbers. Record numbers folks means they are saying her turnout will be GREATER than Obama's in 2012 by a longshot.

Now if you believe that, well good luck...you're going to be very disappointed come November 8. Don't say you weren't told how the polls were manipulated and remember to wipe the shock off your face.

The Real Clear Politics average is also stacked and leaves out many polls that showed Trump in the lead.

Take this one for example that showed Trump +2 on Oct 23, and the RCP list of polls does not include it. They are also including polls that are obviously over sampling Democrats and are way out there out liars. What reputable group would include such bullshit and leave out good polls that support the other candidate?

Hacks and shills, that is who.
Is that why the realclear poll average has called every election right since the realclear average has been around?
 

NYcarbineer

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View attachment 96243

The RealClearPolitics average of polls has had Hillary ahead by 6 to 8 percentage points for the last 6 months.

But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes, her lead has steadily shrunk to just 2%. And there's still a week to go.

Her lead in electoral votes is also shrinking.

And there's still a week to go.

The bell is tolling, Hillary... it's tolling for you.
You Republicans are hilarious. First you don't believe the polls but now you do?

I can show you dozens of 2008 and 2012 polls that say you aren't to be taken seriously.
Once the polls are back in the margins of error, what people have been talking about, the "hidden" Trump vote, comes into play. That and some over adjustment due to perceptions about democratic turnout, which will probably not approach 2012, and will definitely not approach 2008.
So the hidden Trump vote, is that like the Bradley Effect that the RWnuts claimed would beat Obama?
 

martybegan

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View attachment 96243

The RealClearPolitics average of polls has had Hillary ahead by 6 to 8 percentage points for the last 6 months.

But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes, her lead has steadily shrunk to just 2%. And there's still a week to go.

Her lead in electoral votes is also shrinking.

And there's still a week to go.

The bell is tolling, Hillary... it's tolling for you.
You Republicans are hilarious. First you don't believe the polls but now you do?

I can show you dozens of 2008 and 2012 polls that say you aren't to be taken seriously.
Once the polls are back in the margins of error, what people have been talking about, the "hidden" Trump vote, comes into play. That and some over adjustment due to perceptions about democratic turnout, which will probably not approach 2012, and will definitely not approach 2008.
So the hidden Trump vote, is that like the Bradley Effect that the RWnuts claimed would beat Obama?
If we were dealing with an establishment candidate, I would be laughing at MYSELF right now for bringing it up. However The whole Trump phenomenon to me skews both normal polling, and the fact that some NeverTrumpers may just knuckle down in the ballot box when outside of scrutiny.

Hell, I still don't know who I'm voting for, Trump or Johnson, and I have a feeling I am not alone on this.
 

antontoo

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But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes
What fucking crimes? Planting laptop at Weiner's place with lewd emails to underage girls?
 

JimBowie1958

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Is that why the realclear poll average has called every election right since the realclear average has been around?
What is that three elections that did not have an incumbent?

I am not impressed.
 

JimBowie1958

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Once the polls are back in the margins of error, what people have been talking about, the "hidden" Trump vote, comes into play. That and some over adjustment due to perceptions about democratic turnout, which will probably not approach 2012, and will definitely not approach 2008.
What is your best estimate of the Bradley/Brexit effect in this election?

I am guessing right about 10%+
 

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