RCP poll average (weeks ago Hillary ahead by 8%) shrinks to just 2.2%, with a week still to go

[AnCap'n_Murica]

It's almost like 1980 all over again.

 

[AnCap'n_Murica]

But now in the last few weeks, as people are finding out more and more about Hillary's crimes

What fucking crimes? Planting laptop at Weiner's place with lewd emails to underage girls?

Fucking pay for play is a fucking crime.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Is that why the realclear poll average has called every election right since the realclear average has been around?

What is that three elections that did not have an incumbent?

I am not impressed.

The final poll averages have actually called every election for the last 30 years.

 

[AntonToo]

It's almost like 1980 all over again.

Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.

 

[Norman]

The polls are still over-sampled like crazy, Trump is leading big time...

 

[AnCap'n_Murica]

It's almost like 1980 all over again.

Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.

I was talking about the polls, not that Trumpenfurher is analogous to Reagan.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Figure this and add it up.

Trump is far more popular than Romney and got huge numbers of votes more than Romney did.

Hillary is not pulling anywhere close to the numbers that Obama did among Hispanics and blacks. Trump is getting about 25% of the nonwhite voters right now and it is probably even higher.

Trump is winning 20% more independents than Hillary and he is getting over 90% of the GOP now, while Hillary is losing fervor and support among her own base.

Romney lost Florida, Iowa and Ohio in 2012 and Trump leads in all three while carrying all Romney states (he is winning in NC too, the polls there are bullshit).

Trump will win, bet on it.

 

[AntonToo]

The polls are still over-sampled like crazy, Trump is leading big time...

Will find out in a week, won't we?

Tell you what, if you are so certain why don't we put an avatar wager on it?

Trump wins I'll put on a beautiful avatar of pearlin' Trump pic of your choosing, complete with vulgarity free text of your choosing.

Clinton wins, you put on similar style Clinton avatar of my choice.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The graph you posted shows what's actually happening here. Clinton is mostly holding on to her share of the vote. She's had a small decline. That's about it.

Trump is benefiting in the sense that GOP voters that were opting out as undecided or just were planning to skip the top of ticket now feel they can vote for him. That's turning out to be most of the movement towards him. Undecideds are still breaking between the two.

End of the day, the state by state polls, models, and even national polls are indicating a Hillary win. A close one, but a Hillary win. We still have 8 days to go though. A major revelation about Trump would swing it back to a landslide.

 

[Norman]

The polls are still over-sampled like crazy, Trump is leading big time...

Will find out in a week, won't we?

Tell you what, if you are so certain why don't we put an avatar wager on it?

Trump wins I'll put on a beautiful avatar of pearlin' Trump pic of your choosing, complete with vulgarity free text of your choosing.

Clinton wins, you put on similar style Clinton avatar of my choice.

I will be out of the forum once the election is over in any case... but if you wanna bet. Clearly you are not rational as a Clinton voter anyway.

 

[AntonToo]

It's almost like 1980 all over again.

Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.

View attachment 96257

I was talking about the polls, not that Trumpenfurher is analogous to Reagan.

Reagan had a huge win in the debates leading into the final stretch, Trump, after a few day bump from non-revelatory Comey letter will again be bottoming as news cycle refocuses one of his many ridiculous policies, mis-doings and personal failures.

 

[martybegan]

Once the polls are back in the margins of error, what people have been talking about, the "hidden" Trump vote, comes into play. That and some over adjustment due to perceptions about democratic turnout, which will probably not approach 2012, and will definitely not approach 2008.

What is your best estimate of the Bradley/Brexit effect in this election?

I am guessing right about 10%+

Under 5, which is why the polls being within the MOE makes me thing we may be in for a surprise.

But frankly Hillary winning by 100 or so EV's wouldn't surprise me either. The electorate is simply too volatile for accurate predictions.

 

[Little-Acorn]

Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.

And Jimmah was no Hillary, by any stretch of the same imagination. He was actually honest in his own way, merely incompetent and misguided.

The magnitude of the differences between Jimmy and Reagan, were far less than the magnitude between Hillary and Donald.

 

[AntonToo]

I will be out of the forum once the election is over in any case... but if you wanna bet. Clearly you are not rational as a Clinton voter anyway.

That's good. You may as well start looking for a nice comfy corner to cry in now - it's not going to be pretty.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Trump is far more popular than Romney and got huge numbers of votes more than Romney did.

You can stop right there.

Trump isn't more popular than Romney. His one advantage on Romney is that the folks that like him are very motivated by him. More folks like Romney, they just weren't as motivated.

 

[Norman]

I will be out of the forum once the election is over in any case... but if you wanna bet. Clearly you are not rational as a Clinton voter anyway.

That's good. You may as well start looking for a nice comfy corner to cry in now - it's not going to be pretty.

I will be fine either way. However, people who want to a criminal as their president really concern me. It really is the fall of the west, because of idiots like you. Let's hope Trump wins...

 

[AntonToo]

Except Trump is no Reagan, by any stretch of imagination.

And Jimmah was no Hillary.

umm yea, Hillary is in better position.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Under 5, which is why the polls being within the MOE makes me thing we may be in for a surprise.
But frankly Hillary winning by 100 or so EV's wouldn't surprise me either. The electorate is simply too volatile for accurate predictions.

I think the under represented Trump supporters are higher than that, as it was an 8% swing with Brexit and some studies put it at 5%.

Considering the continued roll out of the FBI story and its affect on those who have not yet heard it but will by election day, and I think 10%+ is reasonable.

And I cannot see any other event taking such a huge impact on the election, except maybe a terrorist attack on USA soil, and that would help Trump, not Hillary.

What ammo does Hillary have left? She has fired it all.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The Real Clear Politics average is also stacked and leaves out many polls that showed Trump in the lead.

RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and other sites are pretty selective about the polls they use in averages and models. The decision to include or not relates to methodology, history of the pollster, accuracy in the past, etc.

That's become really important as this year especially you are seeing a lot of bogus polls show up online. Trump especially seems to benefit from those.

That's not uncommon. Ron Paul used to win literally every single online poll ever. Ever. But he'd never draw more than 1% of the vote. Methodology matters.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Trump isn't more popular than Romney. His one advantage on Romney is that the folks that like him are very motivated by him. More folks like Romney, they just weren't as motivated.

Trump took in more votes than Romney did, so that Trump is more popular is simply a fact, whether you like that fact or not.