More and more people agree with me that this is a Depression.

[Neubarth]

No Recovery This Is a Depression
Accept that we are now in a depression, Stock Markets still grossly overvalued, poverty rates increase across midwest, a lots opportunity to regulate the banks,Goldman Sachs reports record profits and still bonusing employees richly, mainstream America goes on a financial diet, suburbs now home to American poor.
Few professionals are yet willing to admit we have been in a depression for the last year. You have to understand the position that economists and analysts are in. They work for corporations, insurance, Wall Street, banking and government and if they thought we were in a depression and they publicly announced that all chances for advancement would be lost or they would be squeezed out of the firm or simply fired. Under such circumstances can you ever expect that you get the truth? We don’t think so. Furthermore the depression we are enveloped in is far from over. The recession encompassed a drop in real GDP in the midst of a credit crisis. The crisis was the result of over-extended credit, prohibitively low interest rates, massive speculation by banks, brokerage houses, insurance companies, and corporations worldwide. It just didn’t happen it was planned that way. We saw that recently in testimony before Congress when CEOs of these financial firms admitted they made a mistake in the process of enriching themselves. The worst sin was the criminal securitization of mortgages and the deliberately criminal mislabeling of their ratings. Then making matters worse those who sold this toxic garbage to their clients such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup were shorting the product that they had just sold to their best clients. What kind of monsters are these people? Unethical doesn’t go far enough. It was criminal. These are the same characters, along with the Fed, and others, who gave us the dotcom boom and collapse and then foisted the real estate boom on our economy. The result has been deflating assets and contracting credit offset by massive lending, money and credit creation by the Fed and monetization, all temporary expedient measures, which in the context of history has led to failure. This has been in process for seven years. This second major abuse of our system in 14 years has presented a terrible dilemma and that is where we are today. Our monetary policy hasn’t worked and won’t work and there has been and presently is little fiscal control in Washington. This is no normal recession; it is a depression.


We Are In A Depression, Not A Recovery - The International Forecaster

 

[william the wie]

Some errors by the author;

The 1930s measure of unemployment overcounted by a considerable amount. Counting railroad pensioners, folks who lived in their parents basement and mistresses as unemployed for example. Current measures undercount to the point where the UE figures are a joke. Despite SGS and other attempts to correct for error the homeless, forced early retirements and many other glitches means that in 1930s terms we are at about 25-30% unemployment.

Try 4-6 sets of books for financial institutions not two.

This thread should get interesting soon.

 

[Neubarth]

Leading up to the French revolution, the Monarchy appeared to be oblivious to the plight of the common people.

At present, the American Monarchy (Obama and the corrupt fat cats who support him) are pretending to be oblivious to what is happening. Their motto appears to be that if you lie enough about it it will go away.

I do not think it will work.

 

[jillian]

another one of these delusional threads?

so sad...

 

[slackjawed]

wolf, wolf WOLF!!!!!!!!!

 

[Toro]

Some errors by the author;

The 1930s measure of unemployment overcounted by a considerable amount. Counting railroad pensioners, folks who lived in their parents basement and mistresses as unemployed for example. Current measures undercount to the point where the UE figures are a joke. Despite SGS and other attempts to correct for error the homeless, forced early retirements and many other glitches means that in 1930s terms we are at about 25-30% unemployment.

Try 4-6 sets of books for financial institutions not two.

This thread should get interesting soon.

Michael Darda of MKM Partners disagrees. According to Darda, using the same definition as we do today for U-6, the unemployment rate during the Great Depression was ~45% compared to ~17% today.

Also, the employment participation ratio is much higher today. Despite the high unemployment rate, more people are employed in the economy relative to the population than at any time before 1975.

Thus, the impact of unemployment and the marginal contribution of labor was much higher in the 1930s than today.

 

[pinqy]

Some errors by the author;

The 1930s measure of unemployment overcounted by a considerable amount.

To the best of my knowledge there were no systematic, nationwide measurements of unemployment in the 20's or 30's other than the 1930 census and a 1936 postcard cenus. So any links you have to the measurements you're referring to, especially definitions, would be helpful.

Current measures undercount to the point where the UE figures are a joke.

Undercount based on what? The definition of unemployed hasn't changed much since 1948, and statistical methodology has certainly improved. What research are you referring to that says otherwise?

 

[uscitizen]

This is not a depression until one side or the other decides it is to their political advantage to say it is a depression.

 

[sboyle24]

The worst happens before it gets better. It may yet not even be a depression, and still in the recession part of the cycle. Recovery may be farther off than many think, but it is definitely something hard to predict. Who jumped the gun on saying we're in a recovery period?

 

[RodISHI]

Some errors by the author;

The 1930s measure of unemployment overcounted by a considerable amount. Counting railroad pensioners, folks who lived in their parents basement and mistresses as unemployed for example. Current measures undercount to the point where the UE figures are a joke. Despite SGS and other attempts to correct for error the homeless, forced early retirements and many other glitches means that in 1930s terms we are at about 25-30% unemployment.

Try 4-6 sets of books for financial institutions not two.

This thread should get interesting soon.

I believe this is correct it is more than just two sets of books being used at Wells Fargo in the reports to SBA the amounts that were charged as being given to my company at the state court level but were never released changed at least three times I know of when the reports went from WF to SBA.

 

[uscitizen]

The worst happens before it gets better. It may yet not even be a depression, and still in the recession part of the cycle. Recovery may be farther off than many think, but it is definitely something hard to predict. Who jumped the gun on saying we're in a recovery period?

Just another 6 months....

 

[editec]

Well, I know I'm depressed.

If the rest of the nation is likewise, I'd suggest that we quickly change those marijuania laws.

Causee you know, Dope will get you through times of depression, better than depression will get you though times of no dope.

 

[sboyle24]

The worst happens before it gets better. It may yet not even be a depression, and still in the recession part of the cycle. Recovery may be farther off than many think, but it is definitely something hard to predict. Who jumped the gun on saying we're in a recovery period?

Just another 6 months....

It depends how successful the stimulus package that passed congress is going to be. Could be as long as a couple years, or as short as 6 months.

 

[sboyle24]

Well, I know I'm depressed.

If the rest of the nation is likewise, I'd suggest that we quickly change those marijuania laws.

Causee you know, Dope will get you through times of depression, better than depression will get you though times of no dope.

lol

 

[Neubarth]

Well, I know I'm depressed.

If the rest of the nation is likewise, I'd suggest that we quickly change those marijuania laws.

Causee you know, Dope will get you through times of depression, better than depression will get you though times of no dope.

lol

My wife is going down to apply for a medicinal marijuana permit. She is taking depressants because of all the misery we see around us, and has decided that Marijuana is better at treating the emotional pain and physical pain.

I tried Marijuana only once in my life and had almost no effect, but I did start eating everything in the fridge about two o'clock in the morning. That is not good for keeping a trim physique so I have avoided an free offers of a toke or two. Unlike Clinton, if I am going to take a toke, I will inhale.

 

[Paulie]

Neubarth, you must be DEEP in the short ETF's because you're really ramping up the efforts to present a negative spin on the economy.

I remember you saying you were in DXD, so I tend to think you have a bit of an agenda here.

 

[Neubarth]

Neubarth, you must be DEEP in the short ETF's because you're really ramping up the efforts to present a negative spin on the economy.

I remember you saying you were in DXD, so I tend to think you have a bit of an agenda here.

My agenda, as stated a hundred times is to expose all of the lies of the administration that are clearly intended to get the public back into those mutual funds in the stock market.

Obama does not need a stock market recovery to generate jobs. The two are relatively independent of each other.

The only thing Obama is doing is playing into the hands of the Big Bankers who can make a killing by shorting the market AFTER they have a bunch of fools reinvested in it. Goldman Sachs is in the corrupt but enviable position of being able to take derivative positions on a rising market and then through machine trading, moving the market up to make their positions pay off. They then can take derivative positions on a falling market and accelerate the fall, TOO, just like they did in March of last year with their machine trading and make trillions off of the fall. All of that investor money does not go away, it goes to the Big Banks who know which way to bet on the market because they can control which way it goes.

When Obama was elected, I had hope (boy was that foolish) that he would be a populist and would take on the corrupt Big Banks, but he has not. Instead, he jumped into bed with them and guaranteed commercial funding for the Democratic party for the next decade.

 

[uscitizen]

But all we heard from years is the market drives the economy. If the market does well so does the rest of America.
This is not correct?

 

[Douger]

Neubarth. You got it right . It's a depression. A permanent one.

There will never be a recovery.
The nation produces near nothing. Products of war is about all.
Even if they did, the citizenry will continue flocking to the Big Box stores, buying Chinese made crap, effectively voting for their own demise.
It's an Idiocracy.

 

[Neubarth]

But all we heard from years is the market drives the economy. If the market does well so does the rest of America.
This is not correct?

That is not correct any longer.

A long long time ago, in a land of hard work and industrial might, the productivity of the industrial-manufacturing complex was unequaled any place else in the world.

Our productivity was reflected in rising earnings in almost every company and along with those rising earnings came rising stock dividends and the stock prices of those companies would usually rise proportionally. Rising productivity and rising earnings directly related to rising stocks and their dividends. Hence, the rising market was an indication of the health of the economy.

Now, we have moved into a modern era where the price of stocks is detached from earnings. Stocks can go up with no earnings. Most companies do not pay dividends any more, so there is no "interest" on the loan. In essence the stock holders are giving their money freely to the company and expecting nothing in return but an increase in the stock price. They get the increase in the stock price as more people are talked into buying into the Ponzi Scheme that is the modern stock market. If a company goes bankrupt, just like all ponzi schemes do eventually, the company seldom pays the stock holders off, as the Bond holders usually part the company. All stocks are now is a gamble that you can find a fool who will buy the stock from you at a higher price even though the company has not posted annual earnings for the past three years. Look at Ford.. They have doubled and trippled the number of shares they have out there so now there are between three and four Billion shares in the market place. If Ford declares bankruptcy, all of those shareholders are fugged no matter what price they paid for the shares.

All stocks are now is a gamble and they are in no way tied to industrial productivity.