What does the future look like for Putin?

[Mac1958]

There have been many reports that Vlad's BMW is no longer hitting on all cylinders, as it were. His borscht has dripped off his spoon. His ikra has slid off its cracker. But up until this invasion, he was still an integrated player on the national stage.

But now, is he literally going to be treated as a war criminal, isolated in the Kremlin? Will he ever get back outside those walls, to the West? Is he now a psychotic despot in decay, paranoid of everyone and everything around him? What does this guy look like in five, ten years, and how will he now be treated globally?

It also makes me wonder if a guy who's lost his marbles and is still in control of all those nukes will decide "fuck it", and do a global version of what Hitler did in his bunker.

War Criminal definition: Could Putin be charged with war crimes?

With Russia's military operation against Ukraine entering into the fifth day, president Vladimir Putin has been labelled by many as a war criminal for ordering the invasion of the

www.marca.com

Putin’s Historic Miscalculation May Make Him a War Criminal

The West condemns Russia’s aggression as “barbaric” and “horrific,” as Biden warns that conflict could drag on for weeks or months.

www.newyorker.com

 

[shockedcanadian]

It depends on if he is victorious or not. Maybe more difficult, in holding and convincing citizens that they should be Russian again.

My concern is what will happen if he fails, or, if he feels meddling from the outside deserves some retaliation which the world may not expect, especially in Europe.

 

[forkup]

It depends on if he is victorious or not. Maybe more difficult, in holding and convincing citizens that they should be Russian again.

My concern is what will happen if he fails, or, if he feels meddling from the outside deserves some retaliation which the world may not expect, especially in Europe.

What do you imagine the alternative is though? Let him do this and wait until he goes after a nations that is a member of NATO. Something that by law would result in a shooting war with the West?

 

[shockedcanadian]

What do you imagine the alternative is though? Let him do this and wait until he goes after a nations that is a member of NATO. Something that by law would result in a shooting war with the West?

Of course not. The West will engage in a proxy war, this is how war works in order to avoid WWIII.

I do however, believe that if the West is only willing/able to provide ammunition and not say, jets, tanks and heavy offensive artillery, than I hope peace is found quickly, one way or another whatever the inevitable may be for either side. I can't see how molotov cocktails, no matter how motivated the thrower; are going to stop an invading army of jets, bombs and tanks.

Media has to put a positive spin and keep the morale of citizens high, I get it. Privately, I listen with skepticism because I can't see how Putins generals would send their best in first. I simply don't want more innocent citizens to die if a peaceful solution is possible, even if it means the division of Ukraine. Easy for me to say, I have no skin in the game, but, death in vain is horrible.

Putin can't stop at this point, he's basically all in. This is what experts have to include in any calculus. If, he goes this far and sees that failure is assured, how he reacts is anyones guess.

I imagine if Russia ever reached such a point that the West provides an off ramp for Putin, but the rage is rightfully so high that more pragmatic voices may be drowned out.

 

[forkup]

Of course not. The West will engage in a proxy war, this is how war works in order to avoid WWIII.

I do however, believe that if the West is only willing/able to provide ammunition and not say, jets, tanks and heavy offensive artillery, than I hope peace is found quickly, one way or another whatever the inevitable may be for either side. I can't see how molotov cocktails, no matter how motivated the thrower; are going to stop an invading army of jets, bombs and tanks.

Media has to put a positive spin and keep the morale of citizens high, I get it. Privately, I listen with skepticism because I can't see how Putins generals would send their best in first. I simply don't want more innocent citizens to die if a peaceful solution is possible, even if it means the division of Ukraine. Easy for me to say, I have no skin in the game, but, death in vain is horrible.

Putin can't stop at this point, he's basically all in. This is what experts have to include in any calculus. If, he goes this far and sees that failure is assured, how he reacts is anyones guess.

I imagine if Russia ever reached such a point that the West provides an off ramp for Putin, but the rage is rightfully so high that more pragmatic voices may be drowned out.

Most of the European nations have committed weaponry. The US is too. Everything from helmets and body armor, stingers, and machine guns, to fighter jets. That's hardly molotov cocktails.

 

[forkup]

Of course not. The West will engage in a proxy war, this is how war works in order to avoid WWIII.

I do however, believe that if the West is only willing/able to provide ammunition and not say, jets, tanks and heavy offensive artillery, than I hope peace is found quickly, one way or another whatever the inevitable may be for either side. I can't see how molotov cocktails, no matter how motivated the thrower; are going to stop an invading army of jets, bombs and tanks.

Media has to put a positive spin and keep the morale of citizens high, I get it. Privately, I listen with skepticism because I can't see how Putins generals would send their best in first. I simply don't want more innocent citizens to die if a peaceful solution is possible, even if it means the division of Ukraine. Easy for me to say, I have no skin in the game, but, death in vain is horrible.

Putin can't stop at this point, he's basically all in. This is what experts have to include in any calculus. If, he goes this far and sees that failure is assured, how he reacts is anyones guess.

I imagine if Russia ever reached such a point that the West provides an off ramp for Putin, but the rage is rightfully so high that more pragmatic voices may be drowned out.

As for pragmatism. Putin isn't the only person boxed in. The West needs to respond. They need to respond in such a way that Putin understand that the West can only respond with force of their own if Putin takes it further. This means respond with everything and anything just short of a shooting war.

 

[shockedcanadian]

Most of the European nations have committed weaponry. The US is too. Everything from helmets and body armor, stingers, and machine guns, to fighter jets. That's hardly molotov cocktails.

If they have jets and tanks, they can ensure a response.

If it the hope that urban warfare of quickly trained accountants is going to prevent the 2nd or 3rd most powerful military in the world while millions are leaving at the earliest opportunity; than I say for the hope of these people that a solution is found soon.

I'm not a defeatist or one who doesn't respect the courage of these citizens, but I am a realist.

 

[forkup]

If they have jets and tanks, they can ensure a response.

If it the hope that urban warfare of quickly trained accountants is going to prevent the 2nd or 3rd most powerful military in the world while millions are leaving at the earliest opportunity; than I say for the hope of these people that a solution is found soon.

I'm not a defeatist or one who doesn't respect the courage of these citizens, but I am a realist.

So am I. The problem is here as in all wars. It has a logic of its own and everybody just guesses as to how the other side reacts. It gets out of control without it being the intention.

As I see it, at the moment this is being handled about as well as you can do.

 

[shockedcanadian]

As for pragmatism. Putin isn't the only person boxed in. The West needs to respond. They need to respond in such a way that Putin understand that the West can only respond with force of their own if Putin takes it further. This means respond with everything and anything just short of a shooting war.

Of course. The question is "at what cost"? Prolong it as long as possible, but, if the West believes it can gloss over it's own self defeating policies of the last 30 years with a last minute Hail Mary against the old Russian Empire, they are sorely mistaken.

Germany announcing the spending of $100B to their military may be the best outcome of this for long term peace though there are probably even better international responses that address NOT arming our enemies. How about walking away from the green power insanity, the Paris Accord and Americans focusing on strengthening their nation, not sinking it with poor "America Last" policies?

If these issues don't change, no amount of love, optimism and rifles is going to save us from our most potent enemies who do NOT sink their own countries. At least not intentionally.

 

[forkup]

Of course. The question is "at what cost"? Prolong it as long as possible, but, if the West believes it can gloss over it's own self defeating policies of the last 30 years with a last minute Hail Mary against the old Russian Empire, they are sorely mistaken.

Germany announcing the spending of $100B to their military may be the best outcome of this for long term peace. How about walking away from the green power insanity, the Paris Accord and Americans focusing on strengthening their nation, not sinking it with poor "America Last" policies?

If these issues don't change, no amount of love, optimism and rifles is going to save us from our most potent enemies who do NOT sink their own countries. At least not intentionally.

At any cost short of WW3 I'm afraid. Anything less invites further agression. If Putin at any point believes that the West is willing to sacrifice Ukraine he will be inclined to further test its resolve.

It is cold blooded to accept the misery that furthering the conflict entails but it is most likely nothing compared to the misery of full scale war with a nuclear power.

 

[Mac1958]

Yikes. Hadn't seen this:

US hints at war-crimes tribunal after Ukraine accuses Russia of genocide

The US ambassador to the United Nations said Sunday that she wouldn’t rule out supporting a war-crimes tribunal for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

nypost.com

 

[shockedcanadian]

At any cost short of WW3 I'm afraid. Anything less invites further agression. If Putin at any point believes that the West is willing to sacrifice Ukraine he will be inclined to further test its resolve.

It is cold blooded to accept the misery that furthering the conflict entails but it is most likely nothing compared to the misery of full scale war with a nuclear power.

Point taken. I might even agree to some degree, except we don't know when WWIII could break out from an escalation or bad decision. Also, I just don't like the lack of self inflection in our media and political circles. This lack of self awareness probably assures that the risk of WWIII is more probable in our lifetimes, Ukraine or otherwise.

 

[forkup]

Point taken. I might even agree to some degree, except we don't know when WWIII could break out from an escalation or bad decision. Also, I just don't like the lack of self inflection in our media and political circles. This lack of self awareness probably assures that the risk of WWIII is more probable in our lifetimes, Ukraine or otherwise.

We can only try to make the best decision on the available information. As it stands I think the course taken now is the best decision.

Nobody knows if that's actually true but as I said in the beginning. I see no viable alternative. At least not one that doesn't simply assumes that Putin will be satisfied by taking over his third piece of territory. Not exactly something that is supported by his or for that matter Europe's history.

 

[kyzr]

We can only try to make the best decision on the available information. As it stands I think the course taken now is the best decision.

Nobody knows if that's actually true but as I said in the beginning. I see no viable alternative. At least not one that simply assumes that Putin will be satisfied by taking over his third piece of territory. Not exactly something that is supported by his or for that matter Europe's history.

Putin pushed NATO to a decision point, obey Russia, or hang together. Germany hesitated, but the people smacked their leaders in-line and Germany is now 100% on the NATO team. That decision prompted Norway, Sweden, and Finland to kick-in thousands of Javelins and Stingers, as well as talking about joining NATO. "Neutral" Switzerland kicked-in Javelins! Japan kicked-in stuff. Only Israel didn't kick-in yet, Lindsay Graham said he'll fix that.

So even if Russia "captures" Ukraine, after all those anti-tank and anti-aircraft and machine guns get distributed throughout Ukraine, Russia is in for one helluva an insurgency.

Putin fucked-up up royally, I can't imagine that he can survive as the rest of the world tightens the noose.

 

[forkup]

Putin pushed NATO to a decision point, obey Russia, or hang together. Germany hesitated, but the people smacked their leaders in-line and Germany is now 100% on the NATO team. That decision prompted Norway, Sweden, and Finland to kick-in thousands of Javelins and Stingers, as well as talking about joining NATO. "Neutral" Switzerland kicked-in Javelins! Japan kicked-in stuff. Only Israel didn't kick-in yet, Lindsay Graham said he'll fix that.

So even if Russia "captures" Ukraine, after all those anti-tank and anti-aircraft and machine guns get distributed throughout Ukraine, Russia is in for one helluva an insurgency.

Putin fucked-up up royally, I can't imagine that he can survive as the rest of the world tightens the noose.

Stalin died of a stroke if I'm not mistaken after a very long rule. After killing millions of his own citizens.

Russia has a long history of dictators remaining in power without popular support.

 

[JoeB131]

Putin pushed NATO to a decision point, obey Russia, or hang together. Germany hesitated, but the people smacked their leaders in-line and Germany is now 100% on the NATO team. That decision prompted Norway, Sweden, and Finland to kick-in thousands of Javelins and Stingers, as well as talking about joining NATO. "Neutral" Switzerland kicked-in Javelins! Japan kicked-in stuff. Only Israel didn't kick-in yet, Lindsay Graham said he'll fix that.

So even if Russia "captures" Ukraine, after all those anti-tank and anti-aircraft and machine guns get distributed throughout Ukraine, Russia is in for one helluva an insurgency.

Putin fucked-up up royally, I can't imagine that he can survive as the rest of the world tightens the noose.

Not really.

Either the Russians topple the Zelensky Regime, or they get forced to the negotiating table when the war bogs down where they still end up with a treaty that gives Putin the Donbass and Crimea.

Putin has calculated that he can withstand Western Sanctions, and the west doesn't have the stomach for actual war.

The Ukraine isn't Afghanistan.

 

[kyzr]

Stalin died of a stroke if I'm not mistaken after a very long rule. After killing millions of his own citizens.
Russia has a long history of dictators remaining in power without popular support.

Russia never faced sanctions like the west put on them now. The Ruble is basically worthless.
Russia got kicked out of AFG and should have learned a hard lesson then.
Ukraine tasted freedom and know that they want it back.
The Russian Dumas and military won't let Putin ruin Russia, if they do that's on them.

 

[Kondor3]

Good question... and none of us really has an intelligent answer.

I don't think Putin has gone mad.

Rather, I think he has made a number of grave miscalculations about the courage and resolve of The West.

And now he's in over-his-head... and his own people... including his General Staff... are beginning to realize that.

Did ya'll see the look on his generals' faces, sitting nearby, when he announced that he was placing his nuclear forces on high alert?

I wonder if his General Staff are going to continue to support this miscalculated nightmare that Putin has arrogantly but mistakenly conjured.

 

[forkup]

Russia never faced sanctions like the west put on them now. The Ruble is basically worthless.
Russia got kicked out of AFG and should have learned a hard lesson then.
Ukraine tasted freedom and know that they want it back.
The Russian Dumas and military won't let Putin ruin Russia, if they do that's on them.

I know all that. I'm simply stating that counting Putin out is premature, no matter Russia's trouble.

 

[kyzr]

Not really.
Either the Russians topple the Zelensky Regime, or they get forced to the negotiating table when the war bogs down where they still end up with a treaty that gives Putin the Donbas and Crimea.
Putin has calculated that he can withstand Western Sanctions, and the west doesn't have the stomach for actual war.
The Ukraine isn't Afghanistan.

1. How do you know that Putin has calculated that RUSSIA can withstand sanctions?? The Ruble is worthless already.
(I agree Putin can, but the populace and oligarchs can't)
2. Putin has Crimea, and the Donbas is a war-zone so he can have it, small price to pay for peace.
3. The Ukraine borders NATO and can get much more military supplies than AFG had very easily, the people are just as tough.
4. The vicious insurgency would force Putin out over time as the Javelins and Stingers take their toll, and the Russian body-bags start going home.