Someone explain the supposedly 30,000 ventilators for New York?

[healthmyths]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It’s 5% of all cases require ventilators support. Not 5% of hospitalized patients.
Simple misunderstanding.

So 5% of all Coronavirus cases 615,519 (as of 3/28/20) would mean 30,775 ventilators are in USE now world-wide according to your misinterpretation.

Then where did Cuomo get his 30,000 ventilator requirements for how many cases... New York would have 615,519 cases alone?

Is that what you are saying? Again.. If New York will need 30,000 ventilators than that means New York would have 615,519 cases or With an estimated 19.45 million residents in 2019
that would mean 3% of New York would contract Covid-19 and 5% of the 615,519 or 30,000 ventilators.

See I'm just asking a logical question. If WHO says 5% of the hospitalized use ventilators and that 1 out of 7 cases are hospitalized... that would mean less than 5,000 ventilators in use NOW...again
according to the WHO. But YOU say 5% of the 615,519 require ventilators or about 30,000.... so does Gov. Cuomo think NY will have 615,519 cases when right now NY has 15,000 cases.

New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront

State now has 15,000 cases – around half of US total – with residents of New York City facing further lockdown from Sunday evening

www.theguardian.com

So tell me where the math is incorrect. New York has 15,000 cases today... to get to 615,000 cases that according to WHO require at most 30,000 ventilators... where did he gat that number?

You’re looking at numbers as they exist now. Cuomo is looking at what could happen in the future. If you wait to get ventilators only when you need them, you’re too late.

I agree... then please explain this:

As of Friday morning 3/17/20 , health officials have confirmed at least:

• 44,635 total cases in New York State
• 519 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
• Over 25,398 cases in New York City
• 365 deaths in New York City

Coronavirus in New York: Latest Updates

Mayor De Blasio is warning New Yorkers that they may have to “improvise” when it comes to their transportation.

nymag.com

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

This means today in New York..with 44,635 cases 6,376 are hospitalized and 5% of hospitalized need ventilators or 400 ventilators are in use in New York.

Your math is incorrect as I already explained.

My MATH is NOT incorrect.
What maybe incorrect is the WHO estimate that 1 out of 7 cases require hospitalization. And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.
That is pure and simple math then.
615,000 cases divided by 7 (i.e. 1 of 7 cases are hospitalized..right?) means 87,931 cases are hospitalized. So you think that ALL cases require ventilators...i.e. 87,931.
which is contrary to what the WHO states that 5% of the hospitalized require ventilators which would be 4,397 ventilators.
My math is NOT incorrect. The WHO assumptions maybe wrong.

You are incorrectly stating the WHO estimates. They say 5% of all cases require ventilatory support, not 5% of all hospitalized cases.

As I already explained.

I don't believe you ! Where is your link? I provided. the link which states:
According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

WHERE IS YOUR LINK?

 

[Crixus]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It's because the gooberment is handing out free shit and cocaine Cuomo want all he can get.

 

[colfax_m]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It’s 5% of all cases require ventilators support. Not 5% of hospitalized patients.
Simple misunderstanding.

So 5% of all Coronavirus cases 615,519 (as of 3/28/20) would mean 30,775 ventilators are in USE now world-wide according to your misinterpretation.

Then where did Cuomo get his 30,000 ventilator requirements for how many cases... New York would have 615,519 cases alone?

Is that what you are saying? Again.. If New York will need 30,000 ventilators than that means New York would have 615,519 cases or With an estimated 19.45 million residents in 2019
that would mean 3% of New York would contract Covid-19 and 5% of the 615,519 or 30,000 ventilators.

See I'm just asking a logical question. If WHO says 5% of the hospitalized use ventilators and that 1 out of 7 cases are hospitalized... that would mean less than 5,000 ventilators in use NOW...again
according to the WHO. But YOU say 5% of the 615,519 require ventilators or about 30,000.... so does Gov. Cuomo think NY will have 615,519 cases when right now NY has 15,000 cases.

New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront

State now has 15,000 cases – around half of US total – with residents of New York City facing further lockdown from Sunday evening

www.theguardian.com

So tell me where the math is incorrect. New York has 15,000 cases today... to get to 615,000 cases that according to WHO require at most 30,000 ventilators... where did he gat that number?

You’re looking at numbers as they exist now. Cuomo is looking at what could happen in the future. If you wait to get ventilators only when you need them, you’re too late.

I agree... then please explain this:

As of Friday morning 3/17/20 , health officials have confirmed at least:

• 44,635 total cases in New York State
• 519 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
• Over 25,398 cases in New York City
• 365 deaths in New York City

Coronavirus in New York: Latest Updates

Mayor De Blasio is warning New Yorkers that they may have to “improvise” when it comes to their transportation.

nymag.com

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

This means today in New York..with 44,635 cases 6,376 are hospitalized and 5% of hospitalized need ventilators or 400 ventilators are in use in New York.

Your math is incorrect as I already explained.

My MATH is NOT incorrect.
What maybe incorrect is the WHO estimate that 1 out of 7 cases require hospitalization. And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.
That is pure and simple math then.
615,000 cases divided by 7 (i.e. 1 of 7 cases are hospitalized..right?) means 87,931 cases are hospitalized. So you think that ALL cases require ventilators...i.e. 87,931.
which is contrary to what the WHO states that 5% of the hospitalized require ventilators which would be 4,397 ventilators.
My math is NOT incorrect. The WHO assumptions maybe wrong.

You are incorrectly stating the WHO estimates. They say 5% of all cases require ventilatory support, not 5% of all hospitalized cases.

As I already explained.

I don't believe you ! Where is your link? I provided. the link which states:
According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

WHERE IS YOUR LINK?

I read your link and it’s right there. 14% require hospitalization. 5% require ICU admission.

And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.

This is not stated anywhere in your links. You made a faulty assumption.

 

[healthmyths]

I went to the study WHO was referencing when it made this statement:
"According to the World Health Organization, 1 in 7 cases require hospitalization and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive."
From this source: In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

The source is from this study.

Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when COVID-19 is suspected

Interim guidance

www.who.int

I down loaded the document and here on page 3 are the comments:
While the majority of people with COVID-19 have uncomplicated or mild illness (81%),
some will develop severe illness requiring oxygen therapy (14%)
and approximately 5% will require intensive care unit treatment.
Of those critically ill, most will require mechanical ventilation (2, 10).
The most common diagnosis in severe COVID-19 patients is severe pneumonia.
So the WHO took the "5%" figure as "5% of the 14% that develop severe illness... OR based on this source:

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www.arcgis.com

622,450 cases of which 81% have mild or uncomplicated...i.e. 504,184 cases
14% or 87,143 cases requiring oxygen therapy and
5% of all cases requiring ventilators or 31,122 ventilators WORLD WIDE...
The USA with 105,573 cases would then need based on WHO standards 5% or 5,278 ventilators TODAY... which the state of New York already has available:
The state has only 7,000 of the ventilators that patients in respiratory distress need. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo says we’ll need 30,000.
Does Cuomo think there will be 600,000 cases of Covid-19 in New york that will require 30,000 ventilators?
Today right now...New York has almost 35,000 cases. So does Cuomo think there will be nearly 18 times the number of cases today in the coming weeks...i..e 600,000 cases in NY alone?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

They have enough but not enough if growth is exponential so they would like to be prepared also need more beds and medical professionals. Hopefully in 2-3 weeks the doctors and nurses who got the disease recover, become immune and we can make some real progress.

 

[healthmyths]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It’s 5% of all cases require ventilators support. Not 5% of hospitalized patients.
Simple misunderstanding.

So 5% of all Coronavirus cases 615,519 (as of 3/28/20) would mean 30,775 ventilators are in USE now world-wide according to your misinterpretation.

Then where did Cuomo get his 30,000 ventilator requirements for how many cases... New York would have 615,519 cases alone?

Is that what you are saying? Again.. If New York will need 30,000 ventilators than that means New York would have 615,519 cases or With an estimated 19.45 million residents in 2019
that would mean 3% of New York would contract Covid-19 and 5% of the 615,519 or 30,000 ventilators.

See I'm just asking a logical question. If WHO says 5% of the hospitalized use ventilators and that 1 out of 7 cases are hospitalized... that would mean less than 5,000 ventilators in use NOW...again
according to the WHO. But YOU say 5% of the 615,519 require ventilators or about 30,000.... so does Gov. Cuomo think NY will have 615,519 cases when right now NY has 15,000 cases.

New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront

State now has 15,000 cases – around half of US total – with residents of New York City facing further lockdown from Sunday evening

www.theguardian.com

So tell me where the math is incorrect. New York has 15,000 cases today... to get to 615,000 cases that according to WHO require at most 30,000 ventilators... where did he gat that number?

You’re looking at numbers as they exist now. Cuomo is looking at what could happen in the future. If you wait to get ventilators only when you need them, you’re too late.

I agree... then please explain this:

As of Friday morning 3/17/20 , health officials have confirmed at least:

• 44,635 total cases in New York State
• 519 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
• Over 25,398 cases in New York City
• 365 deaths in New York City

Coronavirus in New York: Latest Updates

Mayor De Blasio is warning New Yorkers that they may have to “improvise” when it comes to their transportation.

nymag.com

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

This means today in New York..with 44,635 cases 6,376 are hospitalized and 5% of hospitalized need ventilators or 400 ventilators are in use in New York.

Your math is incorrect as I already explained.

My MATH is NOT incorrect.
What maybe incorrect is the WHO estimate that 1 out of 7 cases require hospitalization. And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.
That is pure and simple math then.
615,000 cases divided by 7 (i.e. 1 of 7 cases are hospitalized..right?) means 87,931 cases are hospitalized. So you think that ALL cases require ventilators...i.e. 87,931.
which is contrary to what the WHO states that 5% of the hospitalized require ventilators which would be 4,397 ventilators.
My math is NOT incorrect. The WHO assumptions maybe wrong.

You are incorrectly stating the WHO estimates. They say 5% of all cases require ventilatory support, not 5% of all hospitalized cases.

As I already explained.

I don't believe you ! Where is your link? I provided. the link which states:
According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

WHERE IS YOUR LINK?

I read your link and it’s right there. 14% require hospitalization. 5% require ICU admission.

And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.

This is not stated anywhere in your links. You made a faulty assumption.

The link to the actual study...

Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when COVID-19 is suspected

Interim guidance

www.who.int

and then you have to download the study shows on page 3..
Of ALL the cases... i.e. 622,450 world wide today:
81% of the 622,450 of cases are mild.
14%of the 622,450 have respiratory issues
5% of the 622,450 require ventilators.

So where is Cuomo thinking he'll need 30,000 ventilators ... does he think he'll have 600,000 Covid-19 cases when he has less than 30,000 today?

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

Was already explained by Dr. Birx of the CDC Wed or Thurs... THe numbers don't add up.. Apparently YOUR 'envelope calculation" far exceeds the planning/analysis capabilities of the govt of NY state...

She really lashed out this stopping just short of calling it irresponsible.. ALSO if you want to refine that calculation, there's the matter of NEED over "time"... Not all of that 5% would have a need at the same time and IF they did -- patients could be shifted out of NYC to nearby counties.

It WOULD be possible to need something like 1/2 that number if the population was demographically aged or sick... But that's more of a Florida scenario than NYC... Not many aged "retire" in NYC anymore...

I was angry this morning because there was this story being reported everywhere that "NYC had 420 deaths on Wed alone".. Moron journalists didn't QUALIFY that statement. Turns out that on ANY DAY -- the 24 hospitals and all the coroners there have about 440 deaths.. There's a lot of hypochondriacs in NYC.. It's just their nature...

^^^THIS^^^ most of the news media cannot be trusted. So we need daily briefings to garner the truth.

 

[healthmyths]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

They have enough but not enough if growth is exponential so they would like to be prepared also need more beds and medical professionals. Hopefully in 2-3 weeks the doctors and nurses who got the disease recover, become immune and we can make some real progress.

In the case of New York... currently today they have 30,000 cases. To get to the 600,000 case level that 5% require ventilators (30,000 ventilators is Cuomo's goal) means nearly 17 times growth factor in cases.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

They have enough but not enough if growth is exponential so they would like to be prepared also need more beds and medical professionals. Hopefully in 2-3 weeks the doctors and nurses who got the disease recover, become immune and we can make some real progress.

In the case of New York... currently today they have 30,000 cases. To get to the 600,000 case level that 5% require ventilators means nearly 17 times growth factor in cases.

They only have 53k beds so that’s the real issue have to start using some college dorm and hotel space if the number hits 600k (it won’t) and need way more doctors.

 

[colfax_m]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It’s 5% of all cases require ventilators support. Not 5% of hospitalized patients.
Simple misunderstanding.

So 5% of all Coronavirus cases 615,519 (as of 3/28/20) would mean 30,775 ventilators are in USE now world-wide according to your misinterpretation.

Then where did Cuomo get his 30,000 ventilator requirements for how many cases... New York would have 615,519 cases alone?

Is that what you are saying? Again.. If New York will need 30,000 ventilators than that means New York would have 615,519 cases or With an estimated 19.45 million residents in 2019
that would mean 3% of New York would contract Covid-19 and 5% of the 615,519 or 30,000 ventilators.

See I'm just asking a logical question. If WHO says 5% of the hospitalized use ventilators and that 1 out of 7 cases are hospitalized... that would mean less than 5,000 ventilators in use NOW...again
according to the WHO. But YOU say 5% of the 615,519 require ventilators or about 30,000.... so does Gov. Cuomo think NY will have 615,519 cases when right now NY has 15,000 cases.

New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront

State now has 15,000 cases – around half of US total – with residents of New York City facing further lockdown from Sunday evening

www.theguardian.com

So tell me where the math is incorrect. New York has 15,000 cases today... to get to 615,000 cases that according to WHO require at most 30,000 ventilators... where did he gat that number?

You’re looking at numbers as they exist now. Cuomo is looking at what could happen in the future. If you wait to get ventilators only when you need them, you’re too late.

I agree... then please explain this:

As of Friday morning 3/17/20 , health officials have confirmed at least:

• 44,635 total cases in New York State
• 519 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
• Over 25,398 cases in New York City
• 365 deaths in New York City

Coronavirus in New York: Latest Updates

Mayor De Blasio is warning New Yorkers that they may have to “improvise” when it comes to their transportation.

nymag.com

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

This means today in New York..with 44,635 cases 6,376 are hospitalized and 5% of hospitalized need ventilators or 400 ventilators are in use in New York.

Your math is incorrect as I already explained.

My MATH is NOT incorrect.
What maybe incorrect is the WHO estimate that 1 out of 7 cases require hospitalization. And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.
That is pure and simple math then.
615,000 cases divided by 7 (i.e. 1 of 7 cases are hospitalized..right?) means 87,931 cases are hospitalized. So you think that ALL cases require ventilators...i.e. 87,931.
which is contrary to what the WHO states that 5% of the hospitalized require ventilators which would be 4,397 ventilators.
My math is NOT incorrect. The WHO assumptions maybe wrong.

You are incorrectly stating the WHO estimates. They say 5% of all cases require ventilatory support, not 5% of all hospitalized cases.

As I already explained.

I don't believe you ! Where is your link? I provided. the link which states:
According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

WHERE IS YOUR LINK?

I read your link and it’s right there. 14% require hospitalization. 5% require ICU admission.

And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.

This is not stated anywhere in your links. You made a faulty assumption.

The link to the actual study...

Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when COVID-19 is suspected

Interim guidance

www.who.int

and then you have to download the study shows on page 3..
Of ALL the cases... i.e. 622,450 world wide today:
81% of the 622,450 of cases are mild.
14%of the 622,450 have respiratory issues
5% of the 622,450 require ventilators.

So where is Cuomo thinking he'll need 30,000 ventilators ... does he think he'll have 600,000 Covid-19 cases when he has less than 30,000 today?

I can’t answer for Cuomo but 600,000 active cases of COVID 19 in a city of 20 million would not seem unreasonable. Their case number is doubling about every three days.

 

[colfax_m]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

They have enough but not enough if growth is exponential so they would like to be prepared also need more beds and medical professionals. Hopefully in 2-3 weeks the doctors and nurses who got the disease recover, become immune and we can make some real progress.

In the case of New York... currently today they have 30,000 cases. To get to the 600,000 case level that 5% require ventilators (30,000 ventilators is Cuomo's goal) means nearly 17 times growth factor in cases.

That’s the problem with exponential growth. That is four doublings.

 

[Nostra]

Perhaps what the OP needs to consider is reported cases of infection with the virus in NYC went from about 14,000 to 52,000 in the last 7 days. That's a spread rate of 3.7x in 7 days. It implies the number of those infected will be 192K at the end of next week and 710K the week after unless the curve can be flattened.

Meanwhile.....Cuomo is doing nothing but whining about Trump and holding daily campaign pressers.

 

[healthmyths]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It’s 5% of all cases require ventilators support. Not 5% of hospitalized patients.
Simple misunderstanding.

So 5% of all Coronavirus cases 615,519 (as of 3/28/20) would mean 30,775 ventilators are in USE now world-wide according to your misinterpretation.

Then where did Cuomo get his 30,000 ventilator requirements for how many cases... New York would have 615,519 cases alone?

Is that what you are saying? Again.. If New York will need 30,000 ventilators than that means New York would have 615,519 cases or With an estimated 19.45 million residents in 2019
that would mean 3% of New York would contract Covid-19 and 5% of the 615,519 or 30,000 ventilators.

See I'm just asking a logical question. If WHO says 5% of the hospitalized use ventilators and that 1 out of 7 cases are hospitalized... that would mean less than 5,000 ventilators in use NOW...again
according to the WHO. But YOU say 5% of the 615,519 require ventilators or about 30,000.... so does Gov. Cuomo think NY will have 615,519 cases when right now NY has 15,000 cases.

New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront

State now has 15,000 cases – around half of US total – with residents of New York City facing further lockdown from Sunday evening

www.theguardian.com

So tell me where the math is incorrect. New York has 15,000 cases today... to get to 615,000 cases that according to WHO require at most 30,000 ventilators... where did he gat that number?

You’re looking at numbers as they exist now. Cuomo is looking at what could happen in the future. If you wait to get ventilators only when you need them, you’re too late.

I agree... then please explain this:

As of Friday morning 3/17/20 , health officials have confirmed at least:

• 44,635 total cases in New York State
• 519 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
• Over 25,398 cases in New York City
• 365 deaths in New York City

Coronavirus in New York: Latest Updates

Mayor De Blasio is warning New Yorkers that they may have to “improvise” when it comes to their transportation.

nymag.com

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

This means today in New York..with 44,635 cases 6,376 are hospitalized and 5% of hospitalized need ventilators or 400 ventilators are in use in New York.

Your math is incorrect as I already explained.

My MATH is NOT incorrect.
What maybe incorrect is the WHO estimate that 1 out of 7 cases require hospitalization. And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.
That is pure and simple math then.
615,000 cases divided by 7 (i.e. 1 of 7 cases are hospitalized..right?) means 87,931 cases are hospitalized. So you think that ALL cases require ventilators...i.e. 87,931.
which is contrary to what the WHO states that 5% of the hospitalized require ventilators which would be 4,397 ventilators.
My math is NOT incorrect. The WHO assumptions maybe wrong.

You are incorrectly stating the WHO estimates. They say 5% of all cases require ventilatory support, not 5% of all hospitalized cases.

As I already explained.

I don't believe you ! Where is your link? I provided. the link which states:
According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

WHERE IS YOUR LINK?

I read your link and it’s right there. 14% require hospitalization. 5% require ICU admission.

And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.

This is not stated anywhere in your links. You made a faulty assumption.

The link to the actual study...

Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when COVID-19 is suspected

Interim guidance

www.who.int

and then you have to download the study shows on page 3..
Of ALL the cases... i.e. 622,450 world wide today:
81% of the 622,450 of cases are mild.
14%of the 622,450 have respiratory issues
5% of the 622,450 require ventilators.

So where is Cuomo thinking he'll need 30,000 ventilators ... does he think he'll have 600,000 Covid-19 cases when he has less than 30,000 today?

I can’t answer for Cuomo but 600,000 active cases of COVID 19 in a city of 20 million would not seem unreasonable. Their case number is doubling about every three days.

Part of this whole problem is the MSM hyper inflates articles much like YOU did when you said a "city off 20 million"! You are off by 60%!
New York City, New York Population 2020 8,398,748

New York City, New York Population 2020 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs)

Now as far as "doubling every 3 days"....https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-new-york-ny-news-update-cases-map/5989875/
End of 3/19.. 1,145 cases or growth rate..76 times... end of 3/26 6,276 cases or 5.4 times end of 3/28/20 46,000 cases or growth of 7 times.
So using growth rate of 7 times..
End of 4/3/20 322,000 cases
End of 4/10/20 could be easily over 2,364,000 cases. or of the 20,000,000 population of the state of New York, nearly 10% of the population.
NOW this would be nearly 10 times the national rate of the USA and equal to Italy which maybe likely i.e. due to population density issues.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

They have enough but not enough if growth is exponential so they would like to be prepared also need more beds and medical professionals. Hopefully in 2-3 weeks the doctors and nurses who got the disease recover, become immune and we can make some real progress.

In the case of New York... currently today they have 30,000 cases. To get to the 600,000 case level that 5% require ventilators (30,000 ventilators is Cuomo's goal) means nearly 17 times growth factor in cases.

That’s the problem with exponential growth. That is four doublings.

Yes and governors are panicking because the media cannot be trusted.

 

[berg80]

There were 1,450 reported hospitalizations in NYC that went to 5,250 in 7 days. That's a growth rate of 3.6x. Unless the growth rate can be slowed those numbers imply over 800K in one month.

5% of 800K is 40K.

 

[whitehall]

It goes back to the democrat doctrine "never let a crisis go to waste". Cuomo has become so unhinged that he is starting to sound like the Pachino character in the movie "Dog Day Afternoon".

 

[colfax_m]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

It’s 5% of all cases require ventilators support. Not 5% of hospitalized patients.
Simple misunderstanding.

So 5% of all Coronavirus cases 615,519 (as of 3/28/20) would mean 30,775 ventilators are in USE now world-wide according to your misinterpretation.

Then where did Cuomo get his 30,000 ventilator requirements for how many cases... New York would have 615,519 cases alone?

Is that what you are saying? Again.. If New York will need 30,000 ventilators than that means New York would have 615,519 cases or With an estimated 19.45 million residents in 2019
that would mean 3% of New York would contract Covid-19 and 5% of the 615,519 or 30,000 ventilators.

See I'm just asking a logical question. If WHO says 5% of the hospitalized use ventilators and that 1 out of 7 cases are hospitalized... that would mean less than 5,000 ventilators in use NOW...again
according to the WHO. But YOU say 5% of the 615,519 require ventilators or about 30,000.... so does Gov. Cuomo think NY will have 615,519 cases when right now NY has 15,000 cases.

New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront

State now has 15,000 cases – around half of US total – with residents of New York City facing further lockdown from Sunday evening

www.theguardian.com

So tell me where the math is incorrect. New York has 15,000 cases today... to get to 615,000 cases that according to WHO require at most 30,000 ventilators... where did he gat that number?

You’re looking at numbers as they exist now. Cuomo is looking at what could happen in the future. If you wait to get ventilators only when you need them, you’re too late.

I agree... then please explain this:

As of Friday morning 3/17/20 , health officials have confirmed at least:

• 44,635 total cases in New York State
• 519 deaths from the coronavirus in the state
• Over 25,398 cases in New York City
• 365 deaths in New York City

Coronavirus in New York: Latest Updates

Mayor De Blasio is warning New Yorkers that they may have to “improvise” when it comes to their transportation.

nymag.com

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

This means today in New York..with 44,635 cases 6,376 are hospitalized and 5% of hospitalized need ventilators or 400 ventilators are in use in New York.

Your math is incorrect as I already explained.

My MATH is NOT incorrect.
What maybe incorrect is the WHO estimate that 1 out of 7 cases require hospitalization. And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.
That is pure and simple math then.
615,000 cases divided by 7 (i.e. 1 of 7 cases are hospitalized..right?) means 87,931 cases are hospitalized. So you think that ALL cases require ventilators...i.e. 87,931.
which is contrary to what the WHO states that 5% of the hospitalized require ventilators which would be 4,397 ventilators.
My math is NOT incorrect. The WHO assumptions maybe wrong.

You are incorrectly stating the WHO estimates. They say 5% of all cases require ventilatory support, not 5% of all hospitalized cases.

As I already explained.

I don't believe you ! Where is your link? I provided. the link which states:
According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

WHERE IS YOUR LINK?

I read your link and it’s right there. 14% require hospitalization. 5% require ICU admission.

And of those hospitalized, 5% require ventilators.

This is not stated anywhere in your links. You made a faulty assumption.

The link to the actual study...

Clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when COVID-19 is suspected

Interim guidance

www.who.int

and then you have to download the study shows on page 3..
Of ALL the cases... i.e. 622,450 world wide today:
81% of the 622,450 of cases are mild.
14%of the 622,450 have respiratory issues
5% of the 622,450 require ventilators.

So where is Cuomo thinking he'll need 30,000 ventilators ... does he think he'll have 600,000 Covid-19 cases when he has less than 30,000 today?

I can’t answer for Cuomo but 600,000 active cases of COVID 19 in a city of 20 million would not seem unreasonable. Their case number is doubling about every three days.

Part of this whole problem is the MSM hyper inflates articles much like YOU did when you said a "city off 20 million"! You are off by 60%!
New York City, New York Population 2020 8,398,748

New York City, New York Population 2020 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs)

Now as far as "doubling every 3 days"....https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-new-york-ny-news-update-cases-map/5989875/
End of 3/19.. 1,145 cases or growth rate..76 times... end of 3/26 6,276 cases or 5.4 times end of 3/28/20 46,000 cases or growth of 7 times.
So using growth rate of 7 times..
End of 4/3/20 322,000 cases
End of 4/10/20 could be easily over 2,364,000 cases. or of the 20,000,000 population of the state of New York, nearly 10% of the population.
NOW this would be nearly 10 times the national rate of the USA and equal to Italy which maybe likely i.e. due to population density issues.

View attachment 316377

Silly mistake. I said city when I should have said state. Cuomo is governor of the entire state of 20 million people.

 

[colfax_m]

According to the World Health Organization,
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization
and 5% require intensive care with ventilators to survive.

In a coronavirus crisis, who deserves a ventilator?

When there are two patients and one ventilator, the one with the greatest survival chance should get the ventilator first.

www.usatoday.com

SO explain this math...
595,953 total cases as of 3/27/20 at 8:27 PM..
So according to the above:
1 in 7 cases require hospitalization or 595,953 divided by 7 equals 85,136 hospitalized Covid-19 patients .
AND of the 85,136 hospitalized.... 5% require ventilators or 4,257 ventilators....hmmm....

Please some one explain because IF I use 5% of the 595,953 cases need ventilators... that is 29,798 ventilators world wide!

Something doesn't make sense here...

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

View attachment 316187

They have enough but not enough if growth is exponential so they would like to be prepared also need more beds and medical professionals. Hopefully in 2-3 weeks the doctors and nurses who got the disease recover, become immune and we can make some real progress.

In the case of New York... currently today they have 30,000 cases. To get to the 600,000 case level that 5% require ventilators (30,000 ventilators is Cuomo's goal) means nearly 17 times growth factor in cases.

That’s the problem with exponential growth. That is four doublings.

Yes and governors are panicking because the media cannot be trusted.

Don’t bore me with your whining about the media.

 

[berg80]

It goes back to the democrat doctrine "never let a crisis go to waste". Cuomo has become so unhinged that he is starting to sound like the Pachino character in the movie "Dog Day Afternoon".

Have you acknowledged Trump made the crisis worse by denying it was coming, and therefore not doing what was required to blunt the spread? Or are you still in denial?

 

[berg80]

Yes and governors are panicking because the media cannot be trusted.

Were it not for the media the crisis would be worse than it is. They were warning the public to take the virus seriously when Trump was lying about it being under control.