B. Kidd
Diamond Member
Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.
And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.
Yes the freaking out begins.
Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.
Yes, Silver is saying there is a chance Trump wins and outdoes his polling numbers in the Electoral College.
However, his models are still saying Hillary wins.
In the state polls where Hillary is leading by at least 5%, she would have 268 EVs.
FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total.
As of this moment this is how I read the situation, this is with no Toss Up States.
The polls in PA, WI, MI and MN are very close, the polls in MN are also close but not as much as the other three, so all it takes is a stronger turnout in one of those four for Trump and that narrowly gives him one of Hillary's Electoral College Firewall States, for the sake of argument we'll pick MI, take MI from Hillary and give it to Trump, we then have a reverse of the below.
"FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total."
I think everyone would agree that Hillary, like Obama, like Bill, like Democrats in general have a better get out the vote situation than Republicans.
What though I add is that Trump supporters in general are very wound up and motivated, so do they need to be helped to get out and vote like Hillary voters do? Or can they just get themselves out to vote on the day?
Edited as I got WI and MI mixed up.
Trump supporters are wound up and motivated to vote, and will, despite the liberal MSM doing their damndest in the last 4 weeks (with the exception of the last week) to portray a Hill-Beast win as a cake-walk. Nontheless, the illegal Hispanic vote is out in droves out west, here.
It doesn't matter about the Hispanic vote in those places, if Trump can even narrowly pick up one of Hillary's Electoral College Firewall States of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania and hold Florida and North Carolina, he'll narrowly win the EC.
If Trump loses Florida and North Carolina, then Hillary will narrowly win the EC.
Either way I don't think they'll be a landslide.
Pa. never goes Repub, so write them off. Fla. and N.C. are must wins.