Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Lakhota

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Nate Silver sits on the stairs at Allegro hotel in downtown Chicago on Nov. 9, 2012. The statistician correctly predicted the 2012 presidential winner in all 50 states and almost all the Senate races.

The vaunted 538 election forecaster is putting his thumb on the scales.

During the 2012 election, Republicans who hated the daily onslaught of polling showing that Mitt Romney was headed toward a comfortable defeat turned to Dean Chambers, the man who launched the website Unskewed Polls. The poll numbers were wrong, he said, and by tweaking a few things, he could give a more accurate count. His final projection had Romney winning close to all 50 states.

Chambers has wisely abandoned the field of election forecasting, and this year says he thinks the various models predicting a Hillary Clinton victory are probably accurate. The models themselves are pretty confident. HuffPost Pollster is giving Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and The New York Times’ model at The Upshot puts her chances at 85 percent.

There is one outlier, however, that is causing waves of panic among Democrats around the country, and injecting Trump backers with the hope that their guy might pull this thing off after all. Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.

He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”

So who’s right?

Much More: Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

I just hope this shit soon ends before I have a heart attack.
 

SYTFE

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I just read that article. The bottom line is that even Nate's model can't factor in the big ass giant monkey wrench in this election known as COMEY. The unprecedented involvement makes any sort of mathematical model almost useless. As much as I'm a fan of FiveThirtyEight, I'm gonna have to say that from this point on, the only thing that actually matters are VOTES.

Polls are useless from here on out.
 

emilynghiem

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I still say Clinton has more leverage and momentum to win over Trump.
The media, legal and party establishments including the corporate backers
have been building for years and years over the course of her entire career.

Nobody can compete with that, though Trump held his own in the media
which is more than any other GOP candidate could do against Clinton.
Like Romney and others who are too nice, they just won't play the hardball dirty politics as Trump can do with his feisty "in your face and up yours' approach and reckless disregard for PC and saying what people want to hear to get elected.
 

Billy000

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Nate Silver sits on the stairs at Allegro hotel in downtown Chicago on Nov. 9, 2012. The statistician correctly predicted the 2012 presidential winner in all 50 states and almost all the Senate races.

The vaunted 538 election forecaster is putting his thumb on the scales.

During the 2012 election, Republicans who hated the daily onslaught of polling showing that Mitt Romney was headed toward a comfortable defeat turned to Dean Chambers, the man who launched the website Unskewed Polls. The poll numbers were wrong, he said, and by tweaking a few things, he could give a more accurate count. His final projection had Romney winning close to all 50 states.

Chambers has wisely abandoned the field of election forecasting, and this year says he thinks the various models predicting a Hillary Clinton victory are probably accurate. The models themselves are pretty confident. HuffPost Pollster is giving Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and The New York Times’ model at The Upshot puts her chances at 85 percent.

There is one outlier, however, that is causing waves of panic among Democrats around the country, and injecting Trump backers with the hope that their guy might pull this thing off after all. Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.

He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”

So who’s right?

Much More: Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

I just hope this shit soon ends before I have a heart attack.
This election is likely to come down to a couple of battleground states. Hillary's electoral firewall has eroded a bit, but her chances are good that she'll win Nevada which could replace a battleground state like Colorado or Pennsylvania she may lose to Trump given how he is polling currently.
 

Tipsycatlover

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Is this before Jay Z destroyed the hilly rally?
 

hjmick

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This story has been updated with a response from Nate Silver.

Grim left out most of Silver's response to the article...

Nate Silver Goes to War With HuffPost Writer: ‘You Have No F*cking Idea What You’re Talking About’

@ryangrim: The article made clear you have **no fucking idea** what you're talking about. That's why you contract people **ahead of time**.

There's a much longer rant by Silver at the link, the above quote is how he responded to a comment by Grim.


Twitter wars are funny...
 

Billy000

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Also, if Hillary wins Florida, that's it. She'll win the election just from that.
 

Pop23

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Wait a second, he still has Hillary at 64.7% and Trump at 35.2% for their chance of winning.
It's a guess.

My take is that if the averaging of the polls shows Clinton with less than a 3.9% national lead, her road to the White House is unsure.

With a national lead of 2 or below, her lead in Blue States narrows to a threatening status. Under 1%, she's toast. She wins the popular vote but loses the EC.
 

JimBowie1958

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1. Trend toward more Trump support as Americans dig into the facts and see what a mess Hillary and Bill are, and

2. The Brexit vote of anywhere from 6 to 8% voting for Trump but too ashamed to admit tdoing it, will producde

3. A landslide Trump win.

upload_2016-11-6_1-42-0.png
 

EverCurious

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Not to mention those of us who don't do polls because it's a waste of our time.
 

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