- Jul 14, 2011
- Reaction score
- Native America
Nate Silver sits on the stairs at Allegro hotel in downtown Chicago on Nov. 9, 2012. The statistician correctly predicted the 2012 presidential winner in all 50 states and almost all the Senate races.
The vaunted 538 election forecaster is putting his thumb on the scales.
During the 2012 election, Republicans who hated the daily onslaught of polling showing that Mitt Romney was headed toward a comfortable defeat turned to Dean Chambers, the man who launched the website Unskewed Polls. The poll numbers were wrong, he said, and by tweaking a few things, he could give a more accurate count. His final projection had Romney winning close to all 50 states.
Chambers has wisely abandoned the field of election forecasting, and this year says he thinks the various models predicting a Hillary Clinton victory are probably accurate. The models themselves are pretty confident. HuffPost Pollster is giving Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and The New York Times’ model at The Upshot puts her chances at 85 percent.
There is one outlier, however, that is causing waves of panic among Democrats around the country, and injecting Trump backers with the hope that their guy might pull this thing off after all. Nate Silver’s 538 model is giving Donald Trump a heart-stopping 35 percent chance of winning as of this weekend.
He ratcheted the panic up to 11 on Friday with his latest forecast, tweeting out, “Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton ― and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often.”
So who’s right?
Much More: Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.
I just hope this shit soon ends before I have a heart attack.