Final Predictions

[Bush92]

Republican control of Congress can be double-edged sword. If nothing gets done, they will take the blame. She isn't a rookie like Obama. If they don't cooperate, it'll be bad for them. Also, my prediction is the low-end for Clinton. It doesn't take into account the "I-can't-tell-my-friends-and-family-but-I-can't-vote-for-Trump" vote.

I'd rather have a do-nothing Congress than a far left or far right government running roughshod over the majority of Americans to push their agenda.

Nice to see you voted for Hillary...fuck Russia indeed.

 

[Bush92]

1. Clinton wins the Presidency
2. Dems win the Senate with 51-52 seats
3. GOP loses 10-15 seats in the House but retains control.
4. The board traffic falls as most Trump worshipers vacate
5. Those Trump worshippers who stay start dozens of threads about how Trump lost because of "fraud."

Bank on it.

You are whacked out. Kirk will lose in Illinois. There is your Democrat pick up. GOP might lose 3 House seats. Trump wins presidency.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

If Clinton wins Florida:
Clinton 307 | Trump 231

If Clinton loses Florida:
Clinton 278 | Trump 260

That's with the assumption that Trump wins North Carolina, but I'm not sure how confident I feel about that guess.

And if Hillary loses any of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, she's back well below 270.

Those four States are her Electoral College Firewall, if that's breeched, she's back well below 270.

Nobody really expects that to happen. Every 4 years there are predictions about this and close polls and it never happens.

The Leftists for many weeks have been holding up Nate Silver and what he's been commenting, even Nate Silver is now commenting what I just commented.that Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are Hillary's Electoral College Firewall and in the National Poll of Polls if she's under 4% then her Firewall can be breeched.

If Hillary is under 4% and Trump wins NC and FLA and picks up one of the above, she could narrowly win the Popular Vote and Trump could narrowly win the Electoral College vote or the scenario that they both get 269 in the EC vote.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?

Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead. However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage.

I don't have time for wishful thinking or cherry picking polls to make myself feel comfortable about who is going to win.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?"

Well considering the names that those on the Right often get called here, I think my use of Leftists is being polite.

"Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead."

Anything can happen, it's getting difficult to read as we're in the realm of the MOE with many Opinion Polls, including State polls.

As I commented, on Monday if the Poll of Polls has Hillary less than 4% and that 4% must be outside the MOE, then Trump has a way to breech her Electoral College Firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

"However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage."

Yes we agree it's possible anyone could win, or even both get 269.

Hillary has the advantage, but I think Trump supporters are more motivated, which is why Obama is now on the road trying to rally especially black voters, because the black voters are less enthusiastic toward Hillary.

So what this means, is it's going to come down to turn out in the key Battleground States, the Toss Up States, whoever has the more motivated voters and also how the Independents decide to chose mixed in.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

1. Clinton wins the Presidency
2. Dems win the Senate with 51-52 seats
3. GOP loses 10-15 seats in the House but retains control.
4. The board traffic falls as most Trump worshipers vacate
5. Those Trump worshippers who stay start dozens of threads about how Trump lost because of "fraud."

Bank on it.

You are whacked out. Kirk will lose in Illinois. There is your Democrat pick up. GOP might lose 3 House seats. Trump wins presidency.

With things being so close, Hillary could narrowly win, the Republicans could keep control of both Houses of Congress, so she's blocked from doing anything immediately and then there could be another Special Prosecutor appointed to deal with the Clinton Foundation stuff and the E-Mails stuff etc, so America will be back to how it was when Bill Clinton was President and that's Gridlock and Investigations and Special Prosecutors and Impeachment proceedings.

 

[HappyJoy]

If Clinton wins Florida:
Clinton 307 | Trump 231

If Clinton loses Florida:
Clinton 278 | Trump 260

That's with the assumption that Trump wins North Carolina, but I'm not sure how confident I feel about that guess.

And if Hillary loses any of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, she's back well below 270.

Those four States are her Electoral College Firewall, if that's breeched, she's back well below 270.

Nobody really expects that to happen. Every 4 years there are predictions about this and close polls and it never happens.

The Leftists for many weeks have been holding up Nate Silver and what he's been commenting, even Nate Silver is now commenting what I just commented.that Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are Hillary's Electoral College Firewall and in the National Poll of Polls if she's under 4% then her Firewall can be breeched.

If Hillary is under 4% and Trump wins NC and FLA and picks up one of the above, she could narrowly win the Popular Vote and Trump could narrowly win the Electoral College vote or the scenario that they both get 269 in the EC vote.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?

Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead. However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage.

I don't have time for wishful thinking or cherry picking polls to make myself feel comfortable about who is going to win.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?"

Well considering the names that those on the Right often get called here, I think my use of Leftists is being polite.

"Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead."

Anything can happen, it's getting difficult to read as we're in the realm of the MOE with many Opinion Polls, including State polls.

As I commented, on Monday if the Poll of Polls has Hillary less than 4% and that 4% must be outside the MOE, then Trump has a way to breech her Electoral College Firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

"However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage."

Yes we agree it's possible anyone could win, or even both get 269.

Hillary has the advantage, but I think Trump supporters are more motivated, which is why Obama is now on the road trying to rally especially black voters, because the black voters are less enthusiastic toward Hillary.

So what this means, is it's going to come down to turn out in the key Battleground States, the Toss Up States, whoever has the more motivated voters and also how the Independents decide to chose mixed in.

Your 4% number is made up.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

And if Hillary loses any of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, she's back well below 270.

Those four States are her Electoral College Firewall, if that's breeched, she's back well below 270.

Nobody really expects that to happen. Every 4 years there are predictions about this and close polls and it never happens.

The Leftists for many weeks have been holding up Nate Silver and what he's been commenting, even Nate Silver is now commenting what I just commented.that Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are Hillary's Electoral College Firewall and in the National Poll of Polls if she's under 4% then her Firewall can be breeched.

If Hillary is under 4% and Trump wins NC and FLA and picks up one of the above, she could narrowly win the Popular Vote and Trump could narrowly win the Electoral College vote or the scenario that they both get 269 in the EC vote.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?

Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead. However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage.

I don't have time for wishful thinking or cherry picking polls to make myself feel comfortable about who is going to win.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?"

Well considering the names that those on the Right often get called here, I think my use of Leftists is being polite.

"Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead."

Anything can happen, it's getting difficult to read as we're in the realm of the MOE with many Opinion Polls, including State polls.

As I commented, on Monday if the Poll of Polls has Hillary less than 4% and that 4% must be outside the MOE, then Trump has a way to breech her Electoral College Firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

"However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage."

Yes we agree it's possible anyone could win, or even both get 269.

Hillary has the advantage, but I think Trump supporters are more motivated, which is why Obama is now on the road trying to rally especially black voters, because the black voters are less enthusiastic toward Hillary.

So what this means, is it's going to come down to turn out in the key Battleground States, the Toss Up States, whoever has the more motivated voters and also how the Independents decide to chose mixed in.

Your 4% number is made up.

Well Nate Silver was commenting the same thing the other day, read all of it and process it. The first is him from today and it's very interesting reading.

Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s

Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Trump 40 States Hillary 17

Ahhhh, that number 57 still brings a tingle up your leg???

oh wait,,,,18 for Hillary, I forgot about Cuba

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

C'mon, show some backbone.

I correctly predicted every presidential election from my first in 1972 through to 2008.

I believe Barack Obama was an anomaly. Had he been white he'd have never been elected.

The same is true of Hillary. Were she a man she would not even be considered. Reference Martin O'Malley, essentially a male Hillary Clinton without the baggage.

I call a Trump win. No point spread.

The only prediction at this moment I'll make, there's going to be recounts in more than a few States on Wednesday.

 

[HappyJoy]

Nobody really expects that to happen. Every 4 years there are predictions about this and close polls and it never happens.

The Leftists for many weeks have been holding up Nate Silver and what he's been commenting, even Nate Silver is now commenting what I just commented.that Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are Hillary's Electoral College Firewall and in the National Poll of Polls if she's under 4% then her Firewall can be breeched.

If Hillary is under 4% and Trump wins NC and FLA and picks up one of the above, she could narrowly win the Popular Vote and Trump could narrowly win the Electoral College vote or the scenario that they both get 269 in the EC vote.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?

Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead. However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage.

I don't have time for wishful thinking or cherry picking polls to make myself feel comfortable about who is going to win.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?"

Well considering the names that those on the Right often get called here, I think my use of Leftists is being polite.

"Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead."

Anything can happen, it's getting difficult to read as we're in the realm of the MOE with many Opinion Polls, including State polls.

As I commented, on Monday if the Poll of Polls has Hillary less than 4% and that 4% must be outside the MOE, then Trump has a way to breech her Electoral College Firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

"However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage."

Yes we agree it's possible anyone could win, or even both get 269.

Hillary has the advantage, but I think Trump supporters are more motivated, which is why Obama is now on the road trying to rally especially black voters, because the black voters are less enthusiastic toward Hillary.

So what this means, is it's going to come down to turn out in the key Battleground States, the Toss Up States, whoever has the more motivated voters and also how the Independents decide to chose mixed in.

Your 4% number is made up.

Well Nate Silver was commenting the same thing the other day, read all of it and process it. The first is him from today and it's very interesting reading.

Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s

Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

Nate Silver is predicting a likely Clinton win. 538 is also the most conservative polling aggregator when it comes to Clinton's chances. Others are giving Clinton a 90+% chance of winning and these aren't fly by night organizations either.

With the above said, I tend to agree with Nate, Clinton most likely has this but it's not going to be a landslide and while likely it's not a sure thing Clinton will win.

While you are hanging your hopes on Clinton being 4% down in the polls which she is clearly not.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

The Leftists for many weeks have been holding up Nate Silver and what he's been commenting, even Nate Silver is now commenting what I just commented.that Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are Hillary's Electoral College Firewall and in the National Poll of Polls if she's under 4% then her Firewall can be breeched.

If Hillary is under 4% and Trump wins NC and FLA and picks up one of the above, she could narrowly win the Popular Vote and Trump could narrowly win the Electoral College vote or the scenario that they both get 269 in the EC vote.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?

Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead. However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage.

I don't have time for wishful thinking or cherry picking polls to make myself feel comfortable about who is going to win.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?"

Well considering the names that those on the Right often get called here, I think my use of Leftists is being polite.

"Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead."

Anything can happen, it's getting difficult to read as we're in the realm of the MOE with many Opinion Polls, including State polls.

As I commented, on Monday if the Poll of Polls has Hillary less than 4% and that 4% must be outside the MOE, then Trump has a way to breech her Electoral College Firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

"However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage."

Yes we agree it's possible anyone could win, or even both get 269.

Hillary has the advantage, but I think Trump supporters are more motivated, which is why Obama is now on the road trying to rally especially black voters, because the black voters are less enthusiastic toward Hillary.

So what this means, is it's going to come down to turn out in the key Battleground States, the Toss Up States, whoever has the more motivated voters and also how the Independents decide to chose mixed in.

Your 4% number is made up.

Well Nate Silver was commenting the same thing the other day, read all of it and process it. The first is him from today and it's very interesting reading.

Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s

Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

Nate Silver is predicting a likely Clinton win. 538 is also the most conservative polling aggregator when it comes to Clinton's chances. Others are giving Clinton a 90+% chance of winning and these aren't fly by night organizations either.

With the above said, I tend to agree with Nate, Clinton most likely has this but it's not going to be a landslide and while likely it's not a sure thing Clinton will win.

While you are hanging your hopes on Clinton being 4% down in the polls which she is clearly not.

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

Yes the freaking out begins, it's good that some are correctly reading what Nate Silver is now commenting, although it being good for them means they're freaking out because it's not want they want to hear in The Bubble.

Also the 90+% chance is from The Huffington Post

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Edited to add comment.

 

[Toro]

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

Yes the freaking out begins.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Yes, Silver is saying there is a chance Trump wins and outdoes his polling numbers in the Electoral College.

However, his models are still saying Hillary wins.

In the state polls where Hillary is leading by at least 5%, she would have 268 EVs.

FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total.

 

[HappyJoy]

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?

Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead. However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage.

I don't have time for wishful thinking or cherry picking polls to make myself feel comfortable about who is going to win.

"The leftists", can you just be a human being for a second?"

Well considering the names that those on the Right often get called here, I think my use of Leftists is being polite.

"Anything can happen. I'm simply giving you my opinion. I haven't seen any polling aggregate that shows Clinton down by 4% nationally and I for the most part ignore individual polls. Also, I'm not so sure national polls and even state polls that are coming out today are necessarily telling the full story. People have been voting for weeks and weeks ago Clinton was up 7 points, she's now up around 2 but always maintaining a lead."

Anything can happen, it's getting difficult to read as we're in the realm of the MOE with many Opinion Polls, including State polls.

As I commented, on Monday if the Poll of Polls has Hillary less than 4% and that 4% must be outside the MOE, then Trump has a way to breech her Electoral College Firewall of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

"However, at this moment I think it's possible anyone could win, Clinton appears to have the advantage."

Yes we agree it's possible anyone could win, or even both get 269.

Hillary has the advantage, but I think Trump supporters are more motivated, which is why Obama is now on the road trying to rally especially black voters, because the black voters are less enthusiastic toward Hillary.

So what this means, is it's going to come down to turn out in the key Battleground States, the Toss Up States, whoever has the more motivated voters and also how the Independents decide to chose mixed in.

Your 4% number is made up.

Well Nate Silver was commenting the same thing the other day, read all of it and process it. The first is him from today and it's very interesting reading.

Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s

Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

Nate Silver is predicting a likely Clinton win. 538 is also the most conservative polling aggregator when it comes to Clinton's chances. Others are giving Clinton a 90+% chance of winning and these aren't fly by night organizations either.

With the above said, I tend to agree with Nate, Clinton most likely has this but it's not going to be a landslide and while likely it's not a sure thing Clinton will win.

While you are hanging your hopes on Clinton being 4% down in the polls which she is clearly not.

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

It would be a disaster if either one of those happens. Nate Silver thinks both those scenarios are highly unlikely so I'm not sure why you brought it up. Are you usually prone to believer the unlikely is likely?

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

I already told you my opinion on this. Nate Silver who at this moment gives Trump slightly better than 1 in 3 chances is the most kind to a Trump win. So, of course you're hanging your hat on him. You probably would have supported unskewedpolls.com in 2012 but thankfully that guy was so ashamed into oblivion that no one has attempted to create a website this late in the game based on such bullshit. You would have loved it.

Yes the freaking out begins.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Nate Silver is protecting his brand and he should. The left, right and center are freaking out right now.

 

[HappyJoy]

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

Yes the freaking out begins.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Yes, Silver is saying there is a chance Trump wins and outdoes his polling numbers in the Electoral College.

However, his models are still saying Hillary wins.

In the state polls where Hillary is leading by at least 5%, she would have 268 EVs.

FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total.

I think that is an important point regarding ground game. The Republican candidate has regressed this year in GOTV efforts while the Democrats have built upon Obama's successes.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

I am still waiting for the early voting results from Uranus.

 

[Jackson]

I can't call it. Passion is on the side of Trump, but is that enough?

 

[B. Kidd]

Hill-Beast wins. She doesn't need a high count black vote, as the Latino's are filling in. Puerto Ricans whom have fled bankrupt Puerto Rico headed straight to Florida and points north on the east coast. Meanwhile, central americans and Mexicans have been crossing our porous borders out west for years! Doesn't matter whether they are citizens or not, Democrats have registered them to vote and they are voting for the Hill-Beast in droves.
Both parties are to blame for the hispanic 'balkinazation of America' because as a country, we failed to secure our borders way, way far too long.

Ultra-corrupt Hillary will finally deliver the 'Banana Republic' her party has longed for in order to stay in power, putting party before country. American traditions like the equal 'rule of law', individualism, and liberty will be truly dead; to be replaced by enforced political correctness, 'hive mentality', and identity politik oppression.

Enjoy your banana's .

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

Yes the freaking out begins.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Yes, Silver is saying there is a chance Trump wins and outdoes his polling numbers in the Electoral College.

However, his models are still saying Hillary wins.

In the state polls where Hillary is leading by at least 5%, she would have 268 EVs.

FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total.

As of this moment this is how I read the situation, this is with no Toss Up States.

The polls in PA, WI, MI and MN are very close, the polls in MN are also close but not as much as the other three, so all it takes is a stronger turnout in one of those four for Trump and that narrowly gives him one of Hillary's Electoral College Firewall States, for the sake of argument we'll pick MI, take MI from Hillary and give it to Trump, we then have a reverse of the below.

"FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total."

I think everyone would agree that Hillary, like Obama, like Bill, like Democrats in general have a better get out the vote situation than Republicans.

What though I add is that Trump supporters in general are very wound up and motivated, so do they need to be helped to get out and vote like Hillary voters do? Or can they just get themselves out to vote on the day?

Edited as I got WI and MI mixed up.

 

[B. Kidd]

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

Yes the freaking out begins.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Yes, Silver is saying there is a chance Trump wins and outdoes his polling numbers in the Electoral College.

However, his models are still saying Hillary wins.

In the state polls where Hillary is leading by at least 5%, she would have 268 EVs.

FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total.

As of this moment this is how I read the situation, this is with no Toss Up States.

The polls in PA, WI, MI and MN are very close, the polls in MN are also close but not as much as the other three, so all it takes is a stronger turnout in one of those four for Trump and that narrowly gives him one of Hillary's Electoral College Firewall States, for the sake of argument we'll pick MI, take MI from Hillary and give it to Trump, we then have a reverse of the below.

"FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total."

I think everyone would agree that Hillary, like Obama, like Bill, like Democrats in general have a better get out the vote situation than Republicans.

What though I add is that Trump supporters in general are very wound up and motivated, so do they need to be helped to get out and vote like Hillary voters do? Or can they just get themselves out to vote on the day?

Edited as I got WI and MI mixed up.

Trump supporters are wound up and motivated to vote, and will, despite the liberal MSM doing their damndest in the last 4 weeks (with the exception of the last week) to portray a Hill-Beast win as a cake-walk. Nontheless, the illegal Hispanic vote is out in droves out west, here.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Did you read what Nate Silver has written? He also doesn't discount that Hillary could win the PV but narrowly lose the EC, same with Trump he could win the PV and narrowly lose the EC vote.

And the 90+% chance is now out to lunch. Other people are attempting to keep this within reason and grounded, not out somewhere into the stratosphere.

Yes the freaking out begins.

Nate Silver Is Unskewing The Polls — All Of Them. And The World Is Freaking Out.

Yes, Silver is saying there is a chance Trump wins and outdoes his polling numbers in the Electoral College.

However, his models are still saying Hillary wins.

In the state polls where Hillary is leading by at least 5%, she would have 268 EVs.

FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total.

As of this moment this is how I read the situation, this is with no Toss Up States.

The polls in PA, WI, MI and MN are very close, the polls in MN are also close but not as much as the other three, so all it takes is a stronger turnout in one of those four for Trump and that narrowly gives him one of Hillary's Electoral College Firewall States, for the sake of argument we'll pick MI, take MI from Hillary and give it to Trump, we then have a reverse of the below.

"FTR, Hillary has a much, much better ground game than Trump. The Trump campaign has spent very little on infrastructure, instead relying on the RNC. Hillary has 4x as many staff on the ground than Trump. So it's likely that the polls are underestimating Clinton's final vote total."

I think everyone would agree that Hillary, like Obama, like Bill, like Democrats in general have a better get out the vote situation than Republicans.

What though I add is that Trump supporters in general are very wound up and motivated, so do they need to be helped to get out and vote like Hillary voters do? Or can they just get themselves out to vote on the day?

Edited as I got WI and MI mixed up.

Trump supporters are wound up and motivated to vote, and will, despite the liberal MSM doing their damndest in the last 4 weeks (with the exception of the last week) to portray a Hill-Beast win as a cake-walk. Nontheless, the illegal Hispanic vote is out in droves out west, here.

It doesn't matter about the Hispanic vote in those places, if Trump can even narrowly pick up one of Hillary's Electoral College Firewall States of Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania and hold Florida and North Carolina, he'll narrowly win the EC.

If Trump loses Florida and North Carolina, then Hillary will narrowly win the EC.

Either way I don't think they'll be a landslide.

 

[my2¢]

I'll guess Hillary as the winner. I've always been uncomfortable with a candidate that can't win their own home state and they say Trump will lose New York.