never-earth
Rookie
- Jul 10, 2017
- 29
- 2
- 1
Overviews:
1, Technological progress and power flattening will continue spiraling forward.
2, China will surpass USA and lead the world.
3, Huawei will lead the fourth technological revolution and become the world's no.1 high-tech enterprise.
4, Intellectualistic society will displace capitalist society.
5, China mainland will take back Taiwan within a few years.
6, China will integrate materialism, collectivism, liberalism, socialism and democracy.
7, Single-family houses will replace apartments as Chinese main houses.
8, Females will overall surpass males and dominate the world.
9, Marriages and families will gradually disappear.
10, World population will greatly reduce.
11, The universe will be in overall balance as it was and is.
12, Mathematics will describe all of things in the universe.
13, Human natural attribute will remain unchanged while human social attribute will change dynamically.
14, Homosexuality, drugs and euthanasia will be legalized.
15, Whole world will give up all kinds of religions.
16, The Gregorian calendar will be greatly simplified.
17, Summer and winter vacations for students and teachers will be abolished.
18, English will be greatly simplified and become the universal language of the world.
19, China will unite whole world to be United States of the World.
20, Molecular foods will become the staple foods of mankind.
The full contents are as follows:
1. Technological progress and power flattening will continue spiraling forward.
Technological progress and power flattening are two basic clues of the developments of human society, which respectively represent productive forces and productive relations. They complement and promote each other.
From slave society to feudal society, from the monarchy to a constitutional monarchy, from the bourgeois revolution of the Netherlands to the French revolution, from the October revolution to China's socialist revolution, the political theme of human history is power flattening, as for Julius Caesar restored dictatorship, napoleon restoration, yuan shikai restoration, and so on centralized political events are short interludes of main melody.
Before the industrial revolution, backward productivity and information barriers led to the solidification of power. The slave owner could execute his slaves, the emperor could execute anyone else, and wives were just vassals of their husbands. The status of emperors and nobles could not be inherited, and some nobles' power could last for hundreds of years. The fortresses of power were as solid as rocks. In other words, the pyramid of power in the past was very sharp and the shifts between the higher layers and the lower layers were very slow.
After the industrial revolution, tractors, bulldozers, excavators, harvesters, cranes and other mechanical products greatly reduced the male advantages, greatly contributed to the development of power flattening. Technological inventions such as paper, books, trains, automobiles, airplanes, telephones, computers, mobile phones and social software have made it easier for the general public to obtain information and wisdom and thus gain more power, making the distribution of social power more and more flat. The rise and fall of families changed rapidly, and the feudal hereditary system was abolished; the powers of rulers greatly reduced and the powers of wives greatly increased. The pyramid of power is flatter than it used to be and the shifts between the higher layers and the lower layers are quicker than it used to be.
On the other hand, the power flattening can in turn promote technological progress. One of the key reasons why the first industrial revolution originated in Britain is that Britain took the lead in implementing constitutional monarchy before the industrial revolution, which greatly weakened the power of the monarch and greatly promoted the development of power flattening.
Technological progress and power flattening are not only two clues of social developments, but also two standards to measure the degree of social developments. The United States, Europe and Japan are the most developed regions in the world today, and overall they score highest in both technological progress and the power flattening.
The budding fourth technological revolution based on 5G network, Internet of everything and artificial intelligence will further accelerate the flow of information, wisdom and power, and further flatten the distribution of social power.
2. China will surpass USA and lead the world.
As mentioned above, power flattening is a global trend. It is difficult for the United States to promote power flattening in homeland and around the world, as it cannot solve the racial conflicts and the huge wealth gap in homeland, and cannot lead and help the development of backward Africa and South America. Only China has the power to bring Africa and other backward regions along to promote the flattening of power in the world. On the other hand, the United States has long led the world as a beacon. But that beacon is getting darker and harder to lead the world. And China will gradually become a beacon for the world and lead the world.
The history of human development is a history of continuous integration of people from different regions, races and nationalities. Long ago, the largest social organization on the earth was a small clan, which expanded into the small states of Ancient Babylon and Egypt, and then into the great Han Empire, the Ancient Roman Empire, the Tang Empire, the Mongol Empire, the British Empire, the Soviet Union, the United States, China and so on.
I will explain why the integration capacity of China has surpassed that of the United States from the five aspects of geography, population, culture, technology and science. At last, I will talk about the war risk between China and the United States.
(1) Geography:
Any kind of people must take the appropriate geographical environment as the place of growth and development, so the geographical environment is the basic aspect that affects national strength. Geographical factors include land area, land location, land resources and land climate and so on. Any political advantage of any country originates from geographical factors, so geopolitics is the most basic politics.
Good river basins became the first places to nurture and integrate large numbers of people and large numbers of genes. The two rivers valley in Ancient Babylon, the Nile Valley in ancient Egypt and the Yellow River Valley in ancient China were the major cradles of civilization in the world, because agriculture was the most important industry at that time and agriculture depended heavily on water resources.
Then, as human mobility increased, the Mediterranean coast, where Asia, Europe and Africa met, became the perfect place for human genetic fusion, a hub for goods and ideas from the three continents. It is clear that the Mediterranean coast has played a far greater role in mixing the genes of different human populations than any other river Basin. Maritime traffic in the Mediterranean is far greater than the traffic of the ancient Chinese land Silk Road, which was fraught with difficulties. Ancient Greece was divided into many peninsulas and islands by the sea, and it was difficult for any peninsula or island to become a central region with absolute power. Therefore, the relatively independent and polycentric ancient Greece became the birthplace of democratic election system. Ancient Greece also integrated the cultural essence of West Asia, North Africa and southern Europe to become the world's first maritime civilization.
Since then, sea transportation became the best way for human genes to cross borders, and Marine civilization gradually expanded from the narrow Mediterranean to the vast Atlantic. Earlier Greece and Rome were examples of inland civilizations based on the narrow Mediterranean Sea, but later Spain and Britain were examples of offshore civilizations based on the vast Atlantic Ocean. Britain was positively influenced by The Mediterranean civilization and was the only island country among the above countries, so it had the strongest nautical motivation and reached the highest level of Marine civilization. Spain and Britain brought their languages and cultures across oceans to the Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania, greatly facilitating the genetic mixing of people across the globe.
Later, with the large-scale use of automobiles, trains and airplanes, land transportation and sea transportation played roughly the same role. The United States, which has vast land and coastline and inherited European culture, began to surpass Britain. Britain, known as the Empire on which the sun never set, once had the largest area of land in human history, but those lands were not joined together, and it was difficult for these scattered lands to integrate with each other. With the world's largest road and rail networks, with immigrants from many European countries, with whites, blacks, Indians, Jews, Chinese and more people, The United States became the best place in the 20th century for the intermingling of different human genes.
Britain lost out to the United States which has vaster domestic lands because British integration with her overseas colonies through the sea was superficial, while the continental United States was deeply integrated through its domestic lands. But the United States will lose out to China which has the vaster and better lands, because the North American continent including the United States is the integration of fewer populations and smaller and worse lands, while the Eurasian continent including China will have the integration of more populations and larger and better lands. Cold North America has only a few hundred million people, while warm Eurasia has several billion people.
With the world's largest infrastructure capacity, China is bound to use expressways, high-speed railways and energy pipelines to cross mountains, deserts and rivers across the Eurasian continent. Due to the poor transportation conditions and the closed policy, ancient China had only narrow internal integration. In the future, China will be deeply integrated with the rest of the Eurasian continent by virtue of its well-connected transnational transportation. The Belt and Road initiative advocated by the Chinese government will bring economic integration to the Eurasian continent and is the most ambitious transnational strategy in the world today.
Is Russia, the world's largest country straddling Eurasia, better geographically than China? Extremely cold weather has severely hampered Russia's population, which is only about one-tenth of China's. Extremely cold weather and large amounts of frozen soil also seriously hamper the development of transportation in Russia, which has a large number of no man's land. In Russia, the integration of autonomous republics such as Chechnya with other regions, the integration of the parts of Europe with the parts of Asia, the integration of different religions and the integration of different ethnic groups is fragile. Russia, unable to integrate fully at home, simply cannot promote integration across Eurasia.
Highway networks, high-speed rail networks and high-speed communication networks will enliven the land genes that have been repressed in China for thousands of years, and repress the sea genes that have been lively in the West for thousands of years. Similar to the United States, other island regions such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Ireland, Singapore and China Taiwan will decline greatly.
(2) Population:
The second key reason for the decline of Britain and America is that they have too few populations. With only about 4.3% of the world's population, the United States is simply not big enough to support its ambition to dominate the world. China has about 18.6 percent of the world's population, which is larger than the total population of all European countries and the United States. In the past several thousand years, Chinese genes have been trapped by natural barriers such as the Himalayas and the policy of isolation. Therefore, Chinese genes are narrow and introverted. The weakness of Chinese genes outweighs the strength of Chinese genes in quantity. After the Opium War, especially after the reform and opening up, the genes of more and more Chinese people became extroverted genes, which made China's national strength grow rapidly. In the future, China will attract the elite of the world, and the surplus 0.7~1 billion of the 1.4 billion population of China will gradually spread to every corner of the world. China's influence will spread to every corner of the world, which is impossible for the United States to do.
Perhaps Indian population will surpass Chinese population , but its geographical conditions are far weaker than China's in terms of land area, land resources and climate diversity. China's population density has reached the limit of what it will allow to become the world's number one power because overcrowded living space inhibits innovation of its citizens. India's population density has far exceeded this limit. Moreover, China's move to expand abroad will greatly squeeze the space for Indian expansion, and Indian genes will not be able to upgrade from introverted genes to extroverted genes.
Indians are eager to be senior workers in US tech companies, while Chinese are eager to beat all US tech companies to lead the world, so the Indian pattern is far inferior to the Chinese pattern. American companies watch over the Chinese employees all the time and don't trust the Chinese completely. No matter how good the Chinese are, it is difficult for a Chinese, especially a mainland Chinese, to become a senior executive in an American company. But India will never be able to produce high-tech companies or brands like China's Huawei, Tiktok, Alibaba, Tencent.
(3) Culture:
The important reason for the rise of China and the decline of the United States is that China has been selectively and periodically absorbing the essence of western culture including American culture since the Opium War, while the United States has hardly absorbed the essence of Chinese culture. That is to say, the Chinese culture genes have been gradually incorporating the western culture genes, while the American culture genes have almost no Chinese culture gene.
European countries are generally allies of the United States, but no European country is willing to completely imitate American social system and culture, and no European country is willing to be transformed by the United States, let alone the Middle East countries and Afghanistan. Therefore, American culture has huge defects. It is impossible for the United States to lead the world only by virtue of the cultural banner of freedom and democracy. The values of freedom and democracy are parts of universal culture, but not the whole of it.
The United States has ostensibly absorbed a large number of Chinese immigrants and students, but has been reluctant to absorb the best elements of Chinese culture. Thus, American culture, like ancient Egyptian culture, Ancient Greek culture, Ancient Roman culture and British culture in history, is a regional culture rather than a global universal culture. What's more, the US has increased restrictions on foreign students and immigrants in recent years, which will make the American culture more and more conservative and make the American culture in the process of retrogression.
It is difficult for the United States to learn Chinese culture humbly when it has been in prosperity for a long time. After the Civil War, The United States has not experienced the baptism of negation, so the United States will be negated and given up by the world outside the United States and gradually decline. The United States had reached the peak of its power in 2000 before 9/11, and then entered a period of gradual decline.
China's feudal society, far from the center of the world, fostered ancient Chinese culture that lacked international competitiveness. Ancient Chinese culture mainly includes Taoism, Confucianism and Buddhism, which were all weak cultures.
The Opium War completely opened the door of China. After the Opium War, the Chinese mainland absorbed the Western Marxist-Leninist culture and established the new Socialist China. After the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution, mainland China absorbed part of capitalist culture. Hong Kong and Macau, under British and Portuguese rule, were forced to absorb capitalist culture early on. Taiwan, which was ruled by Japan and then supported by the United States, absorbed capitalism and liberal democracy. Therefore, Chinese contemporary culture, which includes mainland culture, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan culture, has covered various mainstream cultures of the eastern and western world, and Chinese contemporary culture has become the most extensive and broadest culture in the world. However, the mainland culture and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan cultures have not been deeply integrated, so the extensive contemporary Chinese culture is not profound culture yet.
But hundreds of millions of Mainland Chinese have studied, travelled, done business, worked and visited families in the West, and within a few years China will be retaking Taiwan, already a part of western culture. In the future, the number of open Chinese people will increase from several hundred million to one billion, and quantitative changes will produce qualitative changes. The culture of mainland China will thoroughly integrate the essence of western culture, and the culture of mainland China will become a global universal culture combining Chinese and western cultures.
(4) Technologies:
In the past few decades, the United States not only has the strongest innovation ability in the world, but also has the largest consumer market in the world to cultivate innovation achievements. Therefore, the technological innovation of the United States can be quickly transformed into productivity in the United States, thus the emergence of Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook and other technological innovation myth enterprises. Now many people routinely believe that Musk's Tesla and SpaceX will be America's next innovation myth.
However, China's innovation capacity is rapidly approaching that of the United States and even has surpassed that of the United States in some key fields. China's consumer market is also approaching that of the United States and will surpass that of the United States in one or two years. Therefore, Tesla cannot continue leading and will be surpassed by Huawei, China's no. 1 high-tech enterprise, within three or five years. China's space prowess and achievements will gradually surpass those of the United States, and Musk's SpaceX will decline in the face of China's space prowess.
Although the United States remains overall ahead in technology, China is catching up faster and faster. In 2021, Huawei's Harmony operating system was officially commercialized, China's space station was successfully put into operation, and China's rover has successfully landed. All these have greatly made up for China's technological gap and broken the technology monopoly of the United States. In August, China was the first to test-fire a hypersonic missile that circled the earth, much to the concern of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of US. China has become the country with the most complete range of technologies and the broadest industrial base in the world. The United States still have the strongest technical capacity, but China has the strongest technical potential. In about 5-10 years, China will lead the world by surpassing the United States in cutting-edge technologies, and in about 10-15 years, China will surpass the United States in all of important technologies.
Technology is the primary productive force so China's technological progress will rapidly drive China's economic growth. The Novel Coronavirus crisis and the US technology embargo on China will both accelerate China's pace of catching up. Moreover, the US national debt is increasing rapidly, and the US is squandering its hegemony by issuing excess dollars. Within 5 years, the dollar will be substantially devalued and its hegemony will be ended by China's RMB. In about five years, China will overtake the US in GDP. In about a decade, China's Belt and Road strategy will reap the rewards, and the Eurasian continent covered by the Belt and Road will marginalize the U.S. economy.
The speed of decline of US economic and military power based on technological hegemony is underestimated by more than 90% of the world and 99% of the Western countries because they do not know that the leader of the fourth technological revolution is not the US but China. The US, UK and Australia naively and arrogantly plan to deliver nuclear powered submarines for the Australian Navy in 2040. They don't know that by 2040 China's economic and military strength will exceed that of the US, UK and Australia combined. The nuclear submarines delivered in 2040 will pose no threat to China.
The conceited Buffett once said, "In its brief 232 years of existence, however, there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America." and "Never bet against America." America has only unleashed the potential of hundreds of millions of people, especially westerners. Now, I say: "No country except China will be able to integrate all the resources of the world, unleash the potential of billions of people, and unite all the people of the world".
Both the Chinese and American economies have problems with the future. The US uses huge national debt to prop up its military hegemony while Chinese local governments use huge debt to build infrastructure like roads and subways. But the rising China has the capacity to absorb debt and bubbles, while the declining America will be dragged down by them.
(5) Science:
Technology is based on science. In terms of technology, the Chinese used to lead the technological trend of the world with the four great inventions, porcelain and silk in ancient times, but they basically never discovered the scientific theory that could lead the world. Archimedes' law, Euclid's geometry, Newton's law, Gauss's theorem, Einstein's relativity and other western scientific theories have left the Chinese in the dust. All this is because the ancient Chinese lived in an almost closed country and had little academic exchange with foreigners. In the past several thousand years, the scientific capacity of Chinese people was very weak, and very few Chinese people have won the Nobel Prize in physics.
However, the development of science in the West has reached a bottleneck that cannot be broken, and science now needs to integrate philosophical thinking to discover the basic laws of the whole universe. Chinese scientists who have been influenced by Taoism for a long time are generally good at holistic thinking and balanced thinking of philosophy. While the west scientists generally lack the holistic thinking and balanced thinking of philosophy, they are generally bound by religious ideas. With the western scientific theories and eastern philosophical thinking, the Chinese scientists will surely surpasse the Western scientists and climb to the future scientific peak.
(6) Possible war between China and the United States:
The biggest factor affecting China's ability to surpass the United States is the so-called Thucydides's trap, specifically the war between China and the United States. No fight, no friendship, China and the United States have already broken out in trade wars and technology wars. When former US President Donald Trump started the trade wars with arrogance, the Chinese people, especially Chinese investors, were terrified. But now it turns out that The American people's dependence on Chinese goods has increased rather than decreased. The US trade deficit with China has increased rather than decreased, and punitive tariffs on Chinese goods have actually punished US consumers. The US has lost the trade wars and will lose the technology wars again. The plot of the technological wars would resemble that of the trade wars, with the US temporarily triumphant, China temporarily frustrated and then reversed.
But the US may not want China to overtake it. The US, with its military superiority, may provoke a conventional naval war with China. Although the US has overall naval and air superiority, China will prevail at its doorstep in the South China Sea, Taiwan Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, which are within range of a large number of Chinese land-based missiles. To say the least, even if China loses, a naval war with conventional weapons will not harm China's national identity or curb its overall development.
So will the US be the first to strike China's land with nuclear weapons? The United States will face the following seven obstacles if it provokes a nuclear war: 1, China is bound to displace the United States as the world leader and the United States is bound to lose its hegemony in the world, but this is a matter of leadership rather than survival for the American people. China has far fewer nuclear weapons than the United States but enough to destroy large numbers of American people and property. Thus, the United States will have more to lose from Chinese fighting back with nuclear weapons than from being overtaken by China. 2, The US nuclear strike cannot completely wipe out over a billion Chinese people all over the world, and China has a large number of mountains capable of more or less resisting nuclear strike. The total population of China that survived the nuclear strike is likely to still exceed that of the US. The surviving Chinese will retaliate against the Americans in various ways around the world. 3, The whole world depends on China as the factories of the world. If the United States initiates a nuclear war, the whole world including the United States will face a crisis of severe shortage of industrial products. 4, China has become the biggest drivers of globalization so China has a lot of friends on a global scale. The alliance that the US has drawn up against China does not represent the most people of the world so the United States will lack of broad public support around the world if it provokes a nuclear war. Even if United States wins the nuclear war, it will lose the base of public opinion and moral to continue leading the world. So winning the nuclear war would not prevent the US from losing its world leadership. 5, The United States is now fighting against both China and Russia. In the case of the United States attacking China with nuclear weapons, if Russia Allies with China, the United States will lose certainly; if Russia sits on its hands, it will emerge as a world leader after China and the US both lose. 6, The terrorist attacks at September 11th in 2001 and America's failures in Iraq and Afghanistan amply prove that American military hegemony is not omnipotent, and that the weak, when cornered, have a powerful capacity to retaliate against the strong. If the US starts a nuclear war, it will lose more than it has in the past 20 years. 7, China is rapidly increasing its nuclear warheads and has tested hypersonic missiles that the US cannot intercept. China's nuclear weapons will certainly be able to destroy many key cities of the US.
Therefore, from a rational point of view, the US has no advantage if it engages in a conventional or nuclear war with China. But is it possible that the United States and China could miscalculate and end up in a mutually destructive war? No country is willing to take the initiative to start a war that can't take advantage of. The main reason for starting a war is the misjudgment of the participating countries on the strength of each country, such as Germany's misjudgment on the Soviet Union and Britain during World War II, and Japan's misjudgment on the United States and China. However, in the era of rapid information flow and various realistic live-fire military exercises, both China and the United States can roughly understand each other's real strength through intelligence collection and military exercises. Therefore, the probability of miscalculation between China and the United States is extremely low, and the probability of nuclear war between China and the United States is almost zero.
To sum up, the United States looks like a venerable leader at the age of 50 , while China looks like a teenager at the age of 15. The United States represents the present and China represents the future. After about fifteen years, when China is like a 30 years old person, it will have surpassed the United States economically, militarily, culturally, politically and lead the world. After about fifteen years, when the United States is like a 65 year old person, it will hand over world leadership to China and retire.
3, Huawei will lead the fourth technological revolution and become the world's no.1 high-tech enterprise.
The rise and fall of a country is the most important factor in the rise and fall of an enterprise. With the decline of Japan, Toyota, SONY and Panasonic, which once created the myths of the world, have all stepped down from their altars and will continue to decline. The US is the most important market for Apple, the largest US tech company. China is the most important market for Huawei, the largest Chinese tech company. It is inevitable that China will overtake the US and Huawei will overtake Apple.
The first technological revolution created the British Empire, the second one created powerful Germany and the United States, and the third one created the United States which dominated the world. In the three technological revolutions, China did not make any direct significant contribution and therefore had to "eat soup". However, Huawei will lead the fourth technological revolution, and China will also become the birthplace and model of the fourth technological revolution.
Huawei has taken the maverick and avant-garde employee-owned ownership. Huawei has never been listed since it was founded in 1987. All of its shares are held by about 120 thousands of excellent employees who have made obvious contributions to the company. Ren Zhengfei, Huawei's founder and chief executive, owns only about 0.75 percent of the shares. About 80 thousands of other employees without obvious contributions have no share. Moreover, the shares held by the key employees are valid for long term and the other shares are valid for only five years. For most of shareholders, their shares will be forcedly bought back by the company when they leave the company. Not the speculators but the important employees with contributions share the profits and take risks together, which is the most advanced share system in the world.
Huawei also attaches the most importance to research and development with the most investments in research and development, the strongest fighting spirit, the strongest sense of crisis, the most advanced technology and the highest degree of internationalization in China. In addition, Huawei's corporate campus is the most advanced and sophisticated in China, almost as beautiful as a park. Huawei's r&d facility in Songshan Lake, Dongguan, combines low-density, curvy European-style buildings with soft Chinese water and wood landscapes to make it the highest corporate campus on the earth. All of these advantages make Huawei the rarest, most advanced and greatest national treasure in China.
A smart society connected to everything will be the main goal of the fourth technological revolution. Huawei has all-round technologies including 5G wireless network, cable broadband network, chip design, Harmony operating systems for many terminals, servers, Euler operating system for servers, automatic driving core hardware, operating systems for automatic driving, smart houses, cloud computing, photovoltaic, storage, display, television, mobile phone, computer, tablet, speakers, headphones, watches, printer and so on. Huawei has the world's most comprehensive technologies and the most powerful leadership of the fourth technological revolution.
Huawei's strong strength has seriously threatened the technological hegemony of the United States, so the United States began to slander and sanction Huawei with the strength of its whole country in 2019. Huawei's phones sold overseas are restricted from using Android. Huawei and China could never catch up to Apple and the US without their own operating systems. But Huawei has pushed its own Harmony and Euler operating systems for terminals and servers. Harmony operating system is a hyperterminal system for the Internet of Things, which is widely used in mobile phones, watches, television, smart cars and smart houses. There have been nearly 200 million mobile phones and nearly 100 million Internet of Things devices equipped with the Hongmeng operating system. In 3~5 years, the Harmony system with its incomparable ecosystem will defeat Android system and Apple system so as to become the world's number one operating system. In addition, the server oriented Euler operating system of Huawei will also break the American monopoly. At the same time, American sanctions against Huawei make China's chip industry improve fast.
The sanctions imposed by the United States on Huawei again and again have given the Chinese people another kind of technical innovation mobilization conferences, which will strongly stimulate the potentials of China's technological innovation. Huawei and China's high-tech industrial clusters are bound to break through all the blockades of the United States. The US sanctions on Huawei have squandered its technological hegemony, and the US has won a small temporary benefit. But China's operating system and chip industry will break through all the blockades within a few years. The long-term layouts of Huawei and other Chinese enterprises will make the US completely lose its hegemony in information technologies.
China once developed its own atomic bomb under extremely difficult economic and technical conditions, with no computers and only the traditional abacus, and under strict blockade by all developed countries. Now, China is the world's second largest economy and China has the world's largest number of supercomputers, so China will be certainly able to break through the European and American countries in a few years of various technological blockade.
US sanctions on Huawei have also made Huawei join faster and more aggressively into the competions of smart cars. Tesla's electric cars are still a long way from being truly autonomous. Smart cars and mobile phones are essentially electronic computers, and Huawei has far more accumulated technologies in electronic computers than Tesla. Huawei, which has a full range of technologies such as computers, communications and artificial intelligence, will come from behind to beat Tesla, which is not comprehensive in technologies.
Huawei does not make the whole cars, but it has a lot of core technologies for smart cars. The Huawei version of the Polar Fox Alpha S, a smart car with core components and autonomous driving systems provided by Huawei, will hit the market at 25 December 2021. The new car is capable of high levels of autonomous driving on Shanghai's urban roads, where people and traffic flow are complicated, and it has already surpassed any Tesla car in autonomous driving. Several other brands using Huawei's core technologies will also launch new cars. Huawei is bound to become the first leader in the field of smart cars. Chinese cars with core technologies provided by Huawei are bound to beat Tesla, Volkswagen, Toyota, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Porsche, and China is bound to become the first automobile power.
In addition, Tesla founder Elon Musk's satellite communication plan and Mars colonization plan are the great leap forward plans of sensationalism. At best, satellite communications can complement 5G networks in a supporting role, and Musk is unlikely to challenge Huawei's leadership in communications.
Huawei alone can beat Ericsson, Cisco, Qualcomm, Apple, Tesla and many of European and American companies. Any industry leader challenged by Huawei will decline. Within five years, Huawei will have beaten all competitors including Apple and Tesla to become the world's number one high-tech company. Moreover, Huawei will lead a large number of Chinese enterprises to take the lead in the fourth technological revolution, and China will "eat meat" in the technological revolution for the first time. Huawei is the key leader for China to overcome the middle-income trap.
Industry 4.0 is one of the key field of the fourth technological revolution. Germany was the first country to put forward the concept of industry 4.0. However, the model of Industry 4.0 will be not Germany or the United States which opposes Huawei but China where Huawei is located. Huawei will upgrade China's entire industrial system with the world-leading technologies about 5G, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence. The sanctions imposed by the United States made Huawei temporarily cede some share in the mobile phone market, but it also made Huawei free up more talents and capital from the mobile phone business to invest in the fourth technological revolution.
Boycotting Huawei not only deprives the American people of the most advanced and stable communications network in the world, but will also significantly delay the country's progress towards industry 4.0. The US will lose over $1 trillion due to sanctions against Huawei and another $1 trillion due to boycotts against Huawei. Similarly, all other countries that follow the US in boycotting Huawei will suffer huge indirect economic losses.
It is an inevitable trend for the world to see Huawei beat Apple and China beat the United States. However, the sanctioning and boycotting Huawei will make these trends become realities sooner. Over the next decade, Huawei and other Chinese high-tech companies will significantly undermine competitiveness of Silicon Valley of the United States. The Silicon Valley of the United States will gradually lose its position as the world's technology center.
4, Intellectualistic society will displace capitalist society.
Huawei is not only a representative of advanced productive forces, but also of advanced production relations. Huawei will lead not only the technological revolution, but also the intellectual revolution. The Netherlands led the capitalist revolution that brought capitalism to the world. Why could capitalism replace feudalism? Capitalism followed the trend of flattening power, eliminating most of the power bastions of the hereditary aristocracy and allowing the common people to gain more power. But now, Bill Gates has been one of the three richest persons in the world for more than 20 years, and the monopolies such as Microsoft, Google, Alibaba and Tencent have too much power. Many of capitalism's wealth bastions are like rock solid, preventing the flow of wealth and the flattening of power, so the world needs intellectualism to replace capitalism.
(1) Intellectualistic enterprise stock system: employee-owned system.
Huawei's employee-owned system kicked off the intellectualistic society, and Huawei was the first Chinese enterprise to surpass European, American and Japanese enterprises in terms of corporate system. This advanced system combined with China's huge market will make Huawei the world's number one high-tech enterprise, and Huawei's success will make the world, especially China, rethink the capitalism. Huawei's success points the way for the reform of China's state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises, all of which will learn Huawei's employee-owned system and gradually escape the stock markets.
Huawei's flat ownership structure is in line with the general trend of power flattening and will be used for reference and imitation by most enterprises around the world. A growing number of start-ups will no longer sell equities to the public to raise capital, and most of listed companies will be phased out of the stock markets. As a result, the role of the stock exchange markets will be greatly reduced. In short, both China's socialist public ownership enterprises and western capitalist private ownership enterprises will be transformed into intellectual enterprises like Huawei.
In technology, Huawei leads the fourth technological revolution. In finance, Huawei will change the stock market that has lasted for hundreds of years. In military, Huawei will put an end to the information and network advantages of the US Army. In politics, the rise or the fall of Huawei will affect many aspects of China and the United States, and profoundly affect the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Japan, France, Singapore and other countries that have followed the United States in boycotting or restricting Huawei. Huawei's comprehensive influence on the world will far exceed that of any other enterprise. Huawei will become the world's no.1 legendary enterprise and the world's greatest enterprise.
Kai-fu Lee, the frog in the well of Taiwan, once said that China would not have Chinese Apple for 50 or even 100 years. In terms of technology alone, Huawei will beat Apple in 5 years and crush Apple in 10 years! In the terms of technology, economic system, military and politics, Huawei's comprehensive influences on the world will be more than 10 times that of Apple.
(2) Intellectualistic investment and lending platform: bond exchange market.
With the decline of stock exchange market, the bond exchange market based on enterprise credit system will become the main platform for enterprise financing. All companies can pledge their stock to the bond exchange market, and all individuals can choose to buy the bonds they trust according to the different interest rates of different corporate bonds. At the same time, online lending platforms based on personal credit system will become more and more popular. Deposits at banks will plummet by more than 90%, and most of the money will be lent directly to companies and individuals in need, bypassing intermediaries such as banks.
The largest shareholder of Ali is not Jack Ma who founded Ali but SoftBank, a Japanese company that has invested the most in Ali and is now reaping huge profits. Similarly, Tencent's largest shareholder is not Ma Huateng who founded Tencent but South Africa's Millard. Softbank and Millard invested once for all. The Stock exchanges of New York and Hong Kong have been creating many of the similar stories. On its way to catch up with the United States, China should not turn Shanghai into another capitalist New York, but into an intellectual financing platform. A bond exchange would allow future start-ups to avoid the pitfalls of Alibaba and Tencent, and drastically avoid investing once for all.
President Biden has touted America's venture-capital system, which is deeply flawed. Successful ventures in the early stages of a startup can generally earn easy money for long time. Google, Alibaba, Tencent, etc., are almost earning easy money after a short period of hard work. It is impossible for the venture capital system to cultivate such a strong and far-sighted high-tech enterprise as Huawei.
In simple terms, capitalism is characterized by companies selling stocks for money; the future of intellectualism will be characterized by companies pledging stocks for money. China's Technology Innovation Board is unlikely to produce technological company as powerful as Huawei. China should give up imitating and following NASDAQ and develop its own bond exchange market. Only the bond exchange market will enable China to nurture more technology companies like Huawei and surpass the United States as the world's leading technology power. If China's bond exchange market succeeds, it will be imitated around the world.
(3) Intellectualistic tax: property tax.
All of assets will become liquid assets. All of objects and people in the universe are always in the dynamic balance between getting energies and losing energies. If a person can't get enough energies to balance the losing energies, he will decline. In other words, everyone boats against water flow and will recede if not advance. In the future, most of assets will follow the aforementioned laws of nature. The assets of all individuals over extreme poverty line and the assets of all enterprises will be taxed. That is to say, the real estate tax will be applied to all of assets. The more assets the persons or enterprises own, the more taxes they must pay. The asset tax reflects the balance of rights and responsibilities.
The enterprise income tax and individual income tax will be replaced by the enterprise asset tax and individual asset tax. For the individuals over extreme poverty line and most of enterprises, no matter whether they earn incomes and no matter how many incomes they earn, the tax rate for the assets of them will be same. All of assets will flow faster in the whole society. Innovative enterprises and individuals will benefit greatly.
However, the tax rate for the monopolistic enterprises with more than 50 percent of the market share, such as Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, will be far higher so as to guarantee fair market competitions. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie and Morgan ever monopolized American oil, steel and electric power, which were later curbed by the anti-monopoly law. Today some IT companies monopolize search engines, social softwares, shopping websites, operating systems and personal data so they will be curbed by high tax rate.
All of assets will flow faster among different people and the innovative people will appreciate their assets substantially. Only those who rely on sustained intellectual innovation can maintain or increase their wealth, which is the core goal of intellectualism.
It is necessary and right to curb the excessive expansion of Internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent and Didi as forcefully as the Chinese government has done before the property tax is implemented.
(4) Intellectualistic theory property rights:
We have been emphasizing patents for technological inventions, movie and song copyrights, while ignoring more important property rights of basic theories. The basic theories created by mathematicians, philosophers, physicists, chemists, biologists and economists are the basis of all technological inventions and all social laws. Science and technology, philosophy and politics all complement and influence each other, but most scientists and philosophers from ancient to modern times had much honor but little wealth. Gauss, Riemann, Maxwell, Einstein, Marx, Engels and other geniuses were generally not rich, and some were even poor. Great scientists like Copernicus and Mendel even had little honor and little wealth.
Theorists are not generally rich, and their intelligence is seriously out of whack with their wealth. About 10 million of Swedish Kronor ($1.16 million) of the Nobel Prize, were handed out like pitying beggars to the scientists. The 15, 000 Canadian dollars ($12, 000) of Fields Prize in Mathematics is more like a beggar's prize and an insult to "mathematics is the king of science" and "mathematics is the crown of the natural sciences".
However, inventors of technologies based on basic theories, such as Edison, Nobel, Ford, Bill Gates, Jobs and so on, were generally rich and honored. There are two main reasons for this phenomenon. One is that human society generally paralyzes and deceives scientists with the idea that science has no borders. Theoretical research achievements cannot become patents, while technological inventions based on theoretical research achievements are regarded as sacred and inviolable private patents. Second, scientific and philosophical research generally takes years or even decades to be recognized, while technological inventions can be quickly cashed in.
In the future, all of new theories will become patents and will no longer be quoted or used for free. All of excellent theorists will be very rich because of their paid patients. Even if the theory patents have no value or temporarily have no value to the society, the government should use fiscal policy to make the incomes of most of theorists increase by more than ten times, because the difficulty for them to create new theories is far more than the difficulty of technical innovations and the new theories often take years or even decades to be accepted.
5, China mainland will take back Taiwan within a few years.
Leading the fourth technological revolution, China mainland will quickly overtake the United States in economy and military, thus creating conditions and foundations for taking back Taiwan. Economy, military and culture are the three key factors of the Taiwan problems. The China mainland is Taiwan's father but the United States is Taiwan's godfather. Taiwan worships the United States and scorns the China mainland in economic, military and cultural respects so Taiwan has only recognized its godfather.
If Taiwan is to be completely subjugated by China mainland and willing to accept peaceful reunification, China mainland must become an economically rich, militarily powerful, liberal and democratic China mainland. But it will take the mainland a decade or two to achieve these goals.
More importantly, it is impossible for China mainland to accept a liberal and democratic political system until national unification is achieved. The mainland's promotion of liberalism and democracy must be based on a strong enough internal cohesion, which the mainland now lack because the mainland has a large number of very different ethnic groups, languages and dialects. Therefore, the mainland needs a strong central authority to integrate different ethnic groups, languages and dialects. The mainland needs to take back Taiwan first, force the Taiwanese to accept national unification, and then gradually integrate the mainland and Taiwan. When the cohesion of entire China is strong enough, liberalism and democracy will be realized in the entire China.
National reunification is a prerequisite for the mainland to promote liberalism and democracy, which are prerequisites for Taiwanese to voluntarily accept national reunification. Therefore, the mainland and Taiwan have irreconcilable contradictions on the issue of national reunification. The possibility for the majority of Taiwanese people to voluntarily accept the national peaceful reunification is zero.
The social systems of the mainland and Taiwan are very different. If the mainland takes back Taiwan too early, it will be difficult for the mainland and Taiwan to be integrated, that is to say, it will be difficult for the mainland to "digest" Taiwan. On the other hand, the Taiwan issue is a drain on Chinese resources and an obstacle to Chinese liberal and democratic reforms, so China cannot afford to let Taiwan issue drag on for long.
Therefore, China will force Taiwan to accept reunification at the right time. The mainland may force Taiwan by the following three ways: 1, Similar to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan or the US giving up its extradition request for Meng Wanzhou, the US will give up Taiwan to protect itself in the event of a serious crisis in the future. China mainland will impose a military blockade on the whole island of Taiwan and force the Taiwan government to accept reunification so as to subdue the enemy without fighting. Without American backer, Taiwan will have to accept reunification peacefully and smoothly. 2, If the Taiwanese leaders do not surrender in the face of a military blockade, the Chinese army will execute the precise decapitations of the Taiwanese leaders, overthrow the Taiwanese government and then take over Taiwan. 3, the year of 2027 will be the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Chinese army. By the year of 2027, if the US remains unwilling to give up Taiwan, China mainland will take over Taiwan with forces. China mainland will start a blitzkrieg destroying all of Taiwan's important military forces and sending marines and paratroopers to take over the whole Taiwan. At the same time, the Chinese army will use land-based medium-range missiles, navy and air power to deter or repel possible military intervention of the US.
Given the high probability of a financial crisis before 2028 that would permanently remove the US from economic hegemony, the first two low-cost ways to unification are more likely. After the mainland retakes Taiwan, the Taiwan independence elements will be dealt a heavy blow, the Taiwan independence forces will gradually disappear. Some pro-independence activists will be sent to the mainland for trial and severe punishment. Taiwanese hostility to China mainland and superstition to the US will gradually decrease. China mainland and Taiwan will slowly run in and integrate just like the mainland and Hong Kong. Within a decade or two, the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan will be thoroughly integrated economically, politically and culturally.
In the past few decades, the economic and social developments of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan generally went ahead of the mainland. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have stubbornly resisted the mainland's advanced simplified characters and stubbornly insisted on using outdated and garbage traditional characters. After the mainland recovers Taiwan, the cultural integration of the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will be greatly accelerated. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao will gradually abandon traditional Chinese characters.
On the other hand, not only the language integration of the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will be accelerated, but also the language integration of the whole China will be accelerated. All of Chinese dialects, including Cantonese, Hokkien, Shanghainese, Chengdu dialect and Dongle dialect, will gradually disappear. Minority languages all over China will disappear. For the first time, China will realize the unification of language, and the cohesion of different ethnic groups and different provinces in China will greatly increase.
The recovery of Taiwan will allow China to solve the problem of internal separation and thus greatly enhance the ability of expansion, China will gradually expand into the Western Pacific and even the whole world.
Every country that is not strong enough may face secession. China has long faced secession issues in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan. After China achieves national unification and its national strength surpasses that of the United States, the national cohesion of China will be greatly enhanced, while that of the United States and other countries will be greatly weakened. Alaska, Hawaii and Texas of the United States may become independent. Northern Ireland and the oversea islands of UK, the oversea islands of France and the oversea islands of Japan could also become independent. Huge Russia and fat India could break apart.
6. China will integrate materialism, collectivism, liberalism, socialism and democracy.
China stood up through decades of resistance and civil war; China has been becoming richer and richer through reform and opening up; China will become powerful through taking back Taiwan by force; China will become great depending on the global universal cultures that integrate Chinese and Western cultures.
China will have owned enough economic and military hard power to compete with the United States when China mainland takes back Taiwan, then China will focus on cultural soft power next.
The Taoism, Confucian and Buddhist cultures of ancient China only had a profound impact on China, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asian countries, and never had a profound impact on the world outside the above-mentioned countries. It is seriously wrong to say that Chinese traditional cultures are extensive and profound.
Chinese Taoism was probably the earliest dialectical materialism in the world, so China is probably the origin of dialectical materialism. The western ideas of individual liberalism and market economy system are similar to the ancient Chinese Taoist ideas of keeping the road simple and governing without doing anything, but the Taoist scholars have not concretized the general Taoist thoughts. Moreover, the rulers of China's feudal society since emperor Wudi of the Han Dynasty abandoned hundreds of thoughts and only respected Confucianism. Therefore, China's feudal society did not carry out individual liberalism and market economy system, China's feudal society lacked liberal and loose innovation environment.
Taoism has always been suppressed by Confucianism and has never become the mainstream ideology in China. Confucianism, which emphasizes good and evil, morality, rules, respect and hierarchy, belongs to idealism. Confucianism is about equal to the art of keeping the people in ignorance. China's feudal society, ruled by Confucianism, lacked vitality and creativity and was vulnerable to the invasion of western countries and Japan.
Although Christianity in western countries is not a scientific ideological system, it emphasizes the power of false God rather than any real individual power, and regards God as the embodiment of a powerful environmental power. Therefore, Christianity is far closer to dialectical materialism than Confucianism.
The rise of China after hundreds of years of decline does not mean that Chinese traditional cultures are rejuvenated. The main reasons for the rise of China included the popularization of Chinese simplified characters and the vernacular, the introduction of materialist dialectics and socialism of German Marxism, the introduction of western market economy system and a large number of Chinese people studying western cultures through schools, travels, foreign trades, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
However, Chinese society still excessively emphasizes various idealistic spirits and morality, and has not implemented complete dialectical materialism. Therefore, Chinese cultures are still inferior to western cultures, and Chinese production efficiency and per capita income are still inferior to those of European and American countries.
Contemporary Chinese socialism and collectivism are also non-mainstream cultures in the world. Therefore, Chinese culture is far less influential than western culture, and China has never been a world power in terms of culture. During the reign of Emperor Wudi of han dynasty, Emperor Gaozong of Tang Dynasty and Emperor Qianlong of Qing Dynasty, China was only a world power in terms of economic and military hard power. China was never a world power in terms of cultural soft power. China was never a great country. Therefore, the rejuvenation process of the Chinese nation is not great if it is only the rejuvenation of hard power. Only the double rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can be truly great rejuvenation. The double rejuvenation means that China will own both world-class hard power and soft power.
To upgrade Chinese culture, China should suppress Confucianism, promote Taoism and Marx's materialism, and appropriately absorb the social system of western countries. Among western cultures, the main characteristics of US culture are liberalism and democracy, while the German and Nordic cultures have more socialist elements than US culture. The main characteristics of Chinese culture are collectivism and socialism.
The two most powerful countries in the world today, the United States and China, defy each other, and neither represents global universal culture. America lacks collectivism and socialism, while China lacks liberalism and democracy.
The liberal and democratic systems of western countries are rooted in populism, respecting the individuality of the majority and bringing out the full potential of the majority. Collectivism and socialism in China mainland are rooted in elitism, which emphasizes heroism and idolatry. Westerners generally pursue a life suitable for themselves and a happy life, while Chinese people generally pursue a life of great wealth and success. The populism of western countries can fully stimulate the potentials of most people, while the elitism of China can only fully stimulate the potentials of a few elites. Chinese GDP is high but per capita GDP of it is far lower than that of western countries. China will overtake the US in terms of total GDP without enough liberalism and democracy. But if China wants to overtake the United States in terms of GDP per capita, it will have to embrace a liberal and democratic system, because only a liberal and democratic system is likely to unleash the full potentials of most individuals of China.
But western liberalism and democracy also have their flaws. In fighting the Novel Coronavirus crisis, Chinese collectivism was better than Western liberalism. Former president Trump's postelection antics and the hooligan intrusion of his supporters into the US Capitol have exposed serious flaws of the western world's vaunted democratic elections. Both liberalism and democracy, which the West has long preached, need to be improved; they are part of universal values, not the whole of them.
The essence of a democratic election is that a simple minority in a society is subject to the will of a simple majority, which may be 20 to 80 or 49 to 51. But the harmony and development of society cannot depend on only 51% of the population. Fairness and equality are only embodied in the voting of one person, one vote. After the vote, some people are happy and some people are worried, and there are two different and even opposite camps in the society. Socialist democracies in Germany and Northern Europe are fairer and better to unite different electoral camps, while capitalist democracies in the United States are prone to antagonism and fighting between different electoral camps.
Sometimes liberalism goes against the democratic principle of majority rule. For example, during the Novel Coronavirus pandemic, a minority of 20% of the population who persist in their freedom not to wear masks or be vaccinated can cause more than 50% of the majority of the population to be infected with the Novel Coronavirus pandemic.
Everyone's human nature is greedy, and everyone's pursuits of freedom are boundless. However, the universe is marginal, and the earth is even more so. Limited social space cannot satisfy the infinite pursuits of freedom of all people, so liberalism must be constrained by collectivism.
The wise choice for China in the future would be to absorb the advantages of western cultures so as to integrate western liberalism and democracy into Chinese socialism and collectivism. When will it be realized in mainland China? After taking back Taiwan, it is impossible for China mainland to abolish Taiwan's original liberal democratic system, which will in turn drive China mainland more or less to carry out liberal democracy. However, taking back Taiwan is only a necessary condition for the mainland to promote liberal democracy, not a sufficient condition. The recovery of Taiwan to achieve national reunification, full integration of all ethnic groups, ethnic groups and provinces, and the world's strongest economic and military strength are all necessary conditions for China to promote liberalism and democracy.
It may take another 10 to 15 years for all these conditions to be met. China has always insisted that centralized power is the right choice in accordance with its national conditions. Western countries should have more patience and confidence in China's liberal and democratic reforms. In about 10 to 15 years, China will become the most powerful country in the world, integrating materialism, collectivism, liberalism, socialism and democracy. The mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao will be integrated economically, politically and culturally.
In order to integrate different parts of China as soon as possible, the teaching and broadcasting of minority languages and Chinese dialects should be stopped in all schools, buses, subway trains, passenger stations and other public places throughout China as soon as possible.
Before it has the conditions to promote liberalism and democracy, China mainland can first carry out Singapore's high salary corruption system to make up for the defects of the existing system and reduce the corruption and bribery of civil servants. Singapore has the most advanced civil service system in the world. Only fat salary, power restriction and power supervision can cultivate clean-fingered and excellent civil servants.
By the way, the government workers were always called as civil servants, which is completely hypocritical and deceitful, because everyone knows that government workers are the managers and rulers with the highest social status. Government workers do not need to receive ascetic meagre wages on the surface and lots of hidden income and free benefits under the table. Government workers should be really regarded as the managers and rulers of the society and receive high salaries and benefits with open hands.
7. Single-family houses will replace apartments as Chinese main houses.
Chinese urban residents generally live in multi-storey or high-rise apartments, while American urban residents generally live in detached or semi-detached villas. The difference in housing between China and the United States is not only due to the difference of lands and populations, but also due to the cultural difference between individualism in the United States and collectivism in China. Many Chinese are obsessed with crowded high-rise buildings so as to regard Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou as representatives of prosperity. In big cities with many tall buildings, people share crowded buses, subways, elevators and garages, and they also share the green space in the community. Too much shared space and too little exclusive space lead to the lack of distinct personality differences among people, which is one of the important reasons for the weak innovation ability of Chinese people. The large amount of exclusive space in the United States is very conducive to the cultivation of independent personality and innovation ability.
The crowded high-rises buildings, almost sunless subways and huge viaducts of China are not advanced things at all. Low-rise office blocks like those in Europe and large villas like those in The United States are a higher, freer flourish. The Tallest building in China, Shanghai Tower, is definitely not the highest level of corporate office area in China. The Huawei R&D base, which is located on the side of Songshan Lake in Dongguan and composed of low-rise European-style buildings and landscape gardens, is the highest level of corporate office area in China and worthy of being learned by other enterprises in China and around the world.
After the implementation of liberalism and democracy in China, the thinking mode of most Chinese people will change from collectivism to individualism, and most Chinese people will pursue low-rise villas of American style, which will help most Chinese people show their individuality and give full play to their personal potentials, and improve China's per capita GDP. But individualists need more living space than collectivists, and China needs to address its shortage of good land.
First of all, Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai hold about 50 percent of China's land, but they only have about 4 percent of China's population. In the future, these areas will be developed and utilized to a greater extent and will receive many populations from other provinces of China.
Second, China's limited territory cannot accommodate 1.4 billion individualistic Chinese, so about 0.7 to 1 billion Chinese will gradually migrate to different parts of the world. The world is always shuffling the deck frequently, and every country's spheres of influence are always changing frequently. However, unlike the United Kingdom and the United States, which rely on military aggression and territorial expansion, China will rely on its strong economic and cultural attraction to make a large number of countries actively attached to and follow China, that is to say, China will have a large number of satellite countries. About 0.7 ~ 1 billion Chinese immigrants to countries all over the world especially in China's satellite countries, so China's per capita land area will greatly increase, most Chinese people will give up crowded skyscrapers, most Chinese people will be like the majority of Americans now have spacious villa, and most of the office space in China will be low-rise buildings similar to those in Europe.
By the way, China will have more and more architectures of European styles. Beauty is based on regular and complex changes, and beauty is best achieved by complex and graceful curves. European architectures, with a large number of curves of arches, domes and arc-shaped supports, are the most beautiful architectures in the world. European-style architectures far outshine traditional Chinese architectures and contemporary Chinese high-rise buildings, and are bound to become more and more popular in China.
8, Females will overall surpass males and dominate the world.
As we all know, social status of females has been rising, the ratio of power between males and females has been decreasing, there are more and more females in positions of power, but overall females are still weaker than males. In other words, the power balance between males and females has been changing quantitatively, but not qualitatively. So, will this qualitative change happen and under what conditions?
Why could light humans defeat heavy lions, tigers, elephants, whales, crocodiles and polar bears and become the rulers on the earth? Because the main axis and the key to the evolution of animals and humans are not muscles or bones but the brains, and human brains are far smarter than the brains of any kind of animals.
Why haven't light females overall defeated heavy males since thousands of years ago? Females are physically and intellectually weaker than males generally. Why are females intellectually weaker than males generally? Intelligence depends on more knowledge and experiences and more complex experiences. For a long time, females generally have fewer opportunities than males to learn knowledge in school. Moreover, the males with better physical fitness and greater security dare to experience more complex lives in many kinds of complex environments, such as dangerous, dark, sunny, cold or dirty environments. As a result, men are generally more intelligent than females.
But the opportunities for females to learn in school are rapidly catching up with males, and the number of females in American colleges has even surpassed that of males. On the other hand, the budding fourth technological revolution will create an intelligent society where everything is interconnected. People can perceive and control the external complex world through communication network, Internet, computers, AR and VR without leaving home. In the intelligent society of the future, too many bones and muscles will become liability and negative asset of males and hinder their brain development, while females will gain an intellectual advantage.
After females gain the intellectual advantages, they also need to overcome their physical weaknesses. Humans can isolate the animals such as tigers and lions so as to make them only live in the wild or in zoos, while females must have close contacts with males. Men's strong bones and muscles can protect themselves and threaten females. Only under the condition that females gain the full ability to defend themselves, can females really gain the dominant position in society. Strong protective clothing and light weapons are necessary for females to get full self-defense ability.
Many scenes in American sci-fi movies like Star Wars and Star Trek lack high technologies. The main characters in the movies often don't wear protective suits with helmets when they fight at close range, and the lightsabers they use aren't effortless, long-range weapons. Even worse, sometimes the main characters fight with aliens with their bare hands. The weapons, protective suits, and fighting scenes of Korean Animated Series Miniforce are closer to the future than Star Wars and Star Trek.
The biggest beneficiaries of gun legalization are females. The gun legalization is the key reason why the social status of females in the western countries such as the United States, France and Germany is much higher than that of the females in the eastern countries such as China, Japan and South Korea. Western females who own guns are much less in awe of males than their non-gun-owning eastern counterparts, who lack the weapons to deter males.
But the females with guns in the west countries still lack critical protective suits and are wary of using lethal guns. In the future, some technology companies will invent powerful protective suits and non-lethal light weapons that will help females fully defend themselves. The protective suits will be similar to the suits of the Iron Man and Ultraman so as to protect the whole bodies of females. The protective suits will help females resist physical violence, metal knives, bludgeon, hotness and coldness. And the suits will be equipped with rearview mirror and night-vision device so as to give females day-and-night and 360-degree protection. And all of the suits will be smart devices connected to the Internet of Things for public security so that the policemen can quickly receive the wireless signal for help from most places. The protective suits and the non-lethal light weapons that can intercept enemies from more than 10 meters away, together form the high-tech protective equipments for the future. And the non-lethal light weapons will replace lethal guns.
Will the protective suits make females hard to move quickly? Yes, more or less. However, nothing is more important than body safety and the protective suits will make it possible for females to turn over the weak status lasting thousands of years. It is worthy for them to endure a little of inconveniences. Moreover, Internet shopping, home office and Internet teaching will become more and more popular and population and population density will both reduce greatly, which will greatly reduce necessity for people to contact at short range. Thus, the females need to wear protective suits just at few dangerous cases. And protective suits will become more and more powerful, lighter and lighter, cheaper and cheaper with progress of science and technologies, which is similar to the development course of computers and mobile phones.
In the future, many males of politicians and the rich will also need such protective equipments besides females. The powerful protective equipments will become important guarantee and symbol of their social status. And they will greatly reduce dependence on bodyguards. The protective equipments on our bodies are more reliable than any policeman or bodyguard.
People will not adore and aspire for tall and strong body shape any longer. The only purpose of physical training will be to maintain physical fitness so all of professional sports tournaments such as Football World Cup, NBA, Olympic Games will disappear. The "heavy" sports of high intensity will be greatly changed or disappear. For example, the height of basketry for basketball will reduce. The "light" sports of low intensity, such as table tennis and badminton, will be more popular. Thus bones and muscles of our bodies will shrink. Height and weight of our bodies will reduce. Consumption quantity of human foods will reduce, which is conducive to environment protection.
Human body trends will favor shorter and smaller Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Koreans, Vietnamese, etc., against taller and bigger Europeans, Americans, Africans, Central Asians, West Asians, etc.
There will be a transition from now to the time when females overall surpass males. During this transition, short, thin, powerful and excellent males like Chinese Jack Ma, He Jiong, Guo Jingming and Hua Chenyu will be more and more. Japanese people's stature and eating habits will become more and more popular around the world, while American people's stature and eating habits will become more and more unpopular. Humans will eat more foods rich in vitamins and protein, and fewer foods rich in fat.
Gongfu novels by Chinese Jin Yong, Gu Long and others seriously violate the truths of science and technology. They are garbage culture with Chinese characteristics and will be completely eliminated.
9, Marriages and families will gradually disappear.
Long ago, humans had to live like apes in tribal families because abilities of most individuals were too weak. Later, with the growth of individual abilities and the development of power flattening, people got married and had children and lived a small family life. In the future, abilities of individuals will continue growing, humans will greatly break away from the dependence on stable families, and both dynamic families and solitary life will be common.
Mutual love is based on mutually meeting the lover's needs. But needs of everyone change constantly with time and space because everyone always stay in ever-changing environments. No one can always keep up with dynamic needs of one's lovers so love is easy to deteriorate and disappear. We can easily lose old love and easily get new love again. All kinds of emotions between lovers or family members or friends follow the above rules. Some people often ask their lovers:"Do you truly love me?" In fact, difference between all kinds of loves is not "true or false" but different shelf life. Thus, marriages are fragile and there will be more and more extramarital loves and divorces until all of marriages disintegrate completely.
And family seriously hinders optimal allocation of resources. Some clever children live in bad families but some foolish children live in good families. Poorness, quarrel, fight, divorce and death of parents could hinder development of children; and children's trouble could also hinder lives and work of parents. In short, family is baggage of both parents and children. Giving up family will liberate both parents and children, and will improve society efficiency greatly.
In addition, fostering children is essentially one kind of strategic investment of long time. The average rate of return on this investment will continue declining in the future because of human selfishness and the aging population, which is also an important reason why marriages and families will disappear.
Therefore, future lovers will be dynamic and temporary couples based on their dynamic needs and desires. The free society completely based on individuals will appear. Current interpersonal relationship is just like time-consuming dinners but future interpersonal relationship will be like brief snacks. The society without marriage and family would run as follows:
(1) Women in the future will not endure much pain to gratis give birth to the society so governments will reward all of puerperae. And governments will dynamically change quantity of rewards to avoid too many or too few populations. Perhaps, in vitro fertilization and artificial uterus will completely replace the role of pregnant women.
(2) Temporary couples give their babies to governments. Then the parents will be not the sociological parents any longer but the biological parents of the babies. There will be not any of direct rights and obligation between parents and children. Legacy of everyone will be completely confiscated by governments.
(3) All newborn babies with major defects will be euthanized to avoid wasting limited resources on babies with no potential. The anti-abortion laws in the United States are a kind of pseudo-compassionate stupidity.
(4) Governments will set up some special organizations at densely populated areas and hire some professional nurses and teachers to raise and teach children. All of working people must pay the fostering taxes but they will never directly foster children so as to have more time to work and play. In today's society, the rights and obligations between parents and children are very vague, and some parents and children have almost endless responsibilities and obligations. In the future, the rights and obligations between parents and children are very clear.
(5) The influences of rich or poor families on children will be completely eliminated and school bullying will be greatly reduced, which is conducive to creating a better learning environment and a more harmonious campus atmosphere.
These methods not only take individualism and liberalism to the extreme, but also perfectly integrate socialism. The basic units of human society will change from families to individuals. Everyone can give up the family and become freer, and everyone's potentials can be brought into full play. The disappearance of families would allow power to flow more freely across society without being blocked by family walls. The above ways to raise and educate children are like the upgraded versions of Nordic socialism, which optimizes the allocation of resources and greatly improves the overall efficiency of society.
10, World population will reduce greatly.
World population will soon reach the peak because more and more people are not willing to marriage and foster child, more and more people dislike the crowded society, and machines and robots replace more and more workers and farmers. World population will never reach 10 billion predicted by the United Nations. The turning point will appear before population reach to 8 billion and then population will reduce about 50 percent in the decades and then gradually reduce to less than 1 billion.
Moreover, microorganisms, plants, animals and humans together form a big biological family, among which they maintain a dynamic balance. Serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, bubonic Plague, and Spanish flu are all rooted in cosmic forces that suppress excessive population growth and human greed to reshape the ecological balance.
The urbanization lasting few hundreds of years will be reversed. The population of crowded cities will greatly reduce and the population of suburbs and rural areas with better ecological environment will greatly increase. The number of tourists to Antarctica, the Arctic Circle, the virgin forests and the savannas will increase greatly.
Humans will live or play all over the earth and the entire earth's desolate places will be fully utilized, which is more realistic and meaningful than human landing on the moon and Mars. Antarctica, the Arctic Circle, the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Amazon forest, the Sahara desert, the Mongolian steppes and other places will become human high-grade residence, high-grade park and high-grade vacation area. Residents or tourists in these places will greatly increase.
In order to make the desolate places of the earth be the safe and beautiful places, the harmful animals in these places, such as polar bears, whales, crocodiles, sharks, poisonous snakes, tigers, lions, bears, leopards, wolves, scorpions, will be completely destroyed by human beings. Since ancient times, there have been a large number of species extinction in nature, and the ecological balance has been changing dynamically, but human beings have been evolving and progressing. Therefore, the extinction of these harmful animals will be just like the extinction of dinosaurs and do more good than harm to human beings.
Most of the white-collar workers will have their own independent office, per-capita area of offices will gradually increase, and per-capita area of single residence will gradually reach to more than 1000 square meter. Most of high buildings in New York, Tokyo, Singapore, HongKong and Shanghai will become slums or disappear. There will be not a city with more than 1 million populations. Thus we will not need harsh measures to reduce carbon emission.
Faster and better Internet and the Internet of things will support low-density and dispersive society in the future. Bandwidth of Internet will be increased by dozens of times to hundreds of times. Video phone, network shopping, network education, network meeting will be popularized gradually. The necessity of contact between people at short range will reduce greatly. Except for experiments of physics and chemistry, all of theory lessons of natural science and social science will spread through Internet. Many middle-aged and old people will get the degrees of famous universities through the network schools. The Internet of things will enable people to remotely control a large number of living and producing equipment through mobile phones and computers, which will greatly reduce the needs for transportation.
As the population reduces, the problem of ageing is bound to get worse, and government-managed pension systems will become harder to sustain. The government will gradually withdraw from the endowment insurance system, and the endowment insurance will be thoroughly personalized and commercialized. It will take a long time for the government to withdraw from the pension system. During the transition period, the government can start by cutting off pensions for those who live longer than life expectancy, leaving them to fend for themselves and freeing up money for others to make society fairer. Those who live longer than life expectancy are the luckiest people in human society. They have consumed more resources than others but most of them have lost value for society. Therefore, the government should not only pay attention to the wealth gap between people, but also pay attention to the life span gap between people. To be as fair as possible, the government and society should reduce the social resources occupied by the long-lived. For example, the elderly people over life expectancy taking public transport should not only be denied discounts but also pay more money than others.
From another point of view, everyone's time for making contribution to society should be roughly balanced with the time for enjoying social welfare. If somebody starts working for society at the age of 22, retires at 60, and dies at 100, then he only works for 38 years out of her 100 years of life. He wins but the society loses. Moreover, the cost of supporting the elderly should never be inverted over the cost of raising minors.
When populations reduce greatly, humans will not need to make harsh measures to cope with climate warming. It's very wise for America to quit the Paris Agreement because the most effective way for environmental protection is to reduce the populations in the world.
1, Technological progress and power flattening will continue spiraling forward.
2, China will surpass USA and lead the world.
3, Huawei will lead the fourth technological revolution and become the world's no.1 high-tech enterprise.
4, Intellectualistic society will displace capitalist society.
5, China mainland will take back Taiwan within a few years.
6, China will integrate materialism, collectivism, liberalism, socialism and democracy.
7, Single-family houses will replace apartments as Chinese main houses.
8, Females will overall surpass males and dominate the world.
9, Marriages and families will gradually disappear.
10, World population will greatly reduce.
11, The universe will be in overall balance as it was and is.
12, Mathematics will describe all of things in the universe.
13, Human natural attribute will remain unchanged while human social attribute will change dynamically.
14, Homosexuality, drugs and euthanasia will be legalized.
15, Whole world will give up all kinds of religions.
16, The Gregorian calendar will be greatly simplified.
17, Summer and winter vacations for students and teachers will be abolished.
18, English will be greatly simplified and become the universal language of the world.
19, China will unite whole world to be United States of the World.
20, Molecular foods will become the staple foods of mankind.
The full contents are as follows:
1. Technological progress and power flattening will continue spiraling forward.
Technological progress and power flattening are two basic clues of the developments of human society, which respectively represent productive forces and productive relations. They complement and promote each other.
From slave society to feudal society, from the monarchy to a constitutional monarchy, from the bourgeois revolution of the Netherlands to the French revolution, from the October revolution to China's socialist revolution, the political theme of human history is power flattening, as for Julius Caesar restored dictatorship, napoleon restoration, yuan shikai restoration, and so on centralized political events are short interludes of main melody.
Before the industrial revolution, backward productivity and information barriers led to the solidification of power. The slave owner could execute his slaves, the emperor could execute anyone else, and wives were just vassals of their husbands. The status of emperors and nobles could not be inherited, and some nobles' power could last for hundreds of years. The fortresses of power were as solid as rocks. In other words, the pyramid of power in the past was very sharp and the shifts between the higher layers and the lower layers were very slow.
After the industrial revolution, tractors, bulldozers, excavators, harvesters, cranes and other mechanical products greatly reduced the male advantages, greatly contributed to the development of power flattening. Technological inventions such as paper, books, trains, automobiles, airplanes, telephones, computers, mobile phones and social software have made it easier for the general public to obtain information and wisdom and thus gain more power, making the distribution of social power more and more flat. The rise and fall of families changed rapidly, and the feudal hereditary system was abolished; the powers of rulers greatly reduced and the powers of wives greatly increased. The pyramid of power is flatter than it used to be and the shifts between the higher layers and the lower layers are quicker than it used to be.
On the other hand, the power flattening can in turn promote technological progress. One of the key reasons why the first industrial revolution originated in Britain is that Britain took the lead in implementing constitutional monarchy before the industrial revolution, which greatly weakened the power of the monarch and greatly promoted the development of power flattening.
Technological progress and power flattening are not only two clues of social developments, but also two standards to measure the degree of social developments. The United States, Europe and Japan are the most developed regions in the world today, and overall they score highest in both technological progress and the power flattening.
The budding fourth technological revolution based on 5G network, Internet of everything and artificial intelligence will further accelerate the flow of information, wisdom and power, and further flatten the distribution of social power.
2. China will surpass USA and lead the world.
As mentioned above, power flattening is a global trend. It is difficult for the United States to promote power flattening in homeland and around the world, as it cannot solve the racial conflicts and the huge wealth gap in homeland, and cannot lead and help the development of backward Africa and South America. Only China has the power to bring Africa and other backward regions along to promote the flattening of power in the world. On the other hand, the United States has long led the world as a beacon. But that beacon is getting darker and harder to lead the world. And China will gradually become a beacon for the world and lead the world.
The history of human development is a history of continuous integration of people from different regions, races and nationalities. Long ago, the largest social organization on the earth was a small clan, which expanded into the small states of Ancient Babylon and Egypt, and then into the great Han Empire, the Ancient Roman Empire, the Tang Empire, the Mongol Empire, the British Empire, the Soviet Union, the United States, China and so on.
I will explain why the integration capacity of China has surpassed that of the United States from the five aspects of geography, population, culture, technology and science. At last, I will talk about the war risk between China and the United States.
(1) Geography:
Any kind of people must take the appropriate geographical environment as the place of growth and development, so the geographical environment is the basic aspect that affects national strength. Geographical factors include land area, land location, land resources and land climate and so on. Any political advantage of any country originates from geographical factors, so geopolitics is the most basic politics.
Good river basins became the first places to nurture and integrate large numbers of people and large numbers of genes. The two rivers valley in Ancient Babylon, the Nile Valley in ancient Egypt and the Yellow River Valley in ancient China were the major cradles of civilization in the world, because agriculture was the most important industry at that time and agriculture depended heavily on water resources.
Then, as human mobility increased, the Mediterranean coast, where Asia, Europe and Africa met, became the perfect place for human genetic fusion, a hub for goods and ideas from the three continents. It is clear that the Mediterranean coast has played a far greater role in mixing the genes of different human populations than any other river Basin. Maritime traffic in the Mediterranean is far greater than the traffic of the ancient Chinese land Silk Road, which was fraught with difficulties. Ancient Greece was divided into many peninsulas and islands by the sea, and it was difficult for any peninsula or island to become a central region with absolute power. Therefore, the relatively independent and polycentric ancient Greece became the birthplace of democratic election system. Ancient Greece also integrated the cultural essence of West Asia, North Africa and southern Europe to become the world's first maritime civilization.
Since then, sea transportation became the best way for human genes to cross borders, and Marine civilization gradually expanded from the narrow Mediterranean to the vast Atlantic. Earlier Greece and Rome were examples of inland civilizations based on the narrow Mediterranean Sea, but later Spain and Britain were examples of offshore civilizations based on the vast Atlantic Ocean. Britain was positively influenced by The Mediterranean civilization and was the only island country among the above countries, so it had the strongest nautical motivation and reached the highest level of Marine civilization. Spain and Britain brought their languages and cultures across oceans to the Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania, greatly facilitating the genetic mixing of people across the globe.
Later, with the large-scale use of automobiles, trains and airplanes, land transportation and sea transportation played roughly the same role. The United States, which has vast land and coastline and inherited European culture, began to surpass Britain. Britain, known as the Empire on which the sun never set, once had the largest area of land in human history, but those lands were not joined together, and it was difficult for these scattered lands to integrate with each other. With the world's largest road and rail networks, with immigrants from many European countries, with whites, blacks, Indians, Jews, Chinese and more people, The United States became the best place in the 20th century for the intermingling of different human genes.
Britain lost out to the United States which has vaster domestic lands because British integration with her overseas colonies through the sea was superficial, while the continental United States was deeply integrated through its domestic lands. But the United States will lose out to China which has the vaster and better lands, because the North American continent including the United States is the integration of fewer populations and smaller and worse lands, while the Eurasian continent including China will have the integration of more populations and larger and better lands. Cold North America has only a few hundred million people, while warm Eurasia has several billion people.
With the world's largest infrastructure capacity, China is bound to use expressways, high-speed railways and energy pipelines to cross mountains, deserts and rivers across the Eurasian continent. Due to the poor transportation conditions and the closed policy, ancient China had only narrow internal integration. In the future, China will be deeply integrated with the rest of the Eurasian continent by virtue of its well-connected transnational transportation. The Belt and Road initiative advocated by the Chinese government will bring economic integration to the Eurasian continent and is the most ambitious transnational strategy in the world today.
Is Russia, the world's largest country straddling Eurasia, better geographically than China? Extremely cold weather has severely hampered Russia's population, which is only about one-tenth of China's. Extremely cold weather and large amounts of frozen soil also seriously hamper the development of transportation in Russia, which has a large number of no man's land. In Russia, the integration of autonomous republics such as Chechnya with other regions, the integration of the parts of Europe with the parts of Asia, the integration of different religions and the integration of different ethnic groups is fragile. Russia, unable to integrate fully at home, simply cannot promote integration across Eurasia.
Highway networks, high-speed rail networks and high-speed communication networks will enliven the land genes that have been repressed in China for thousands of years, and repress the sea genes that have been lively in the West for thousands of years. Similar to the United States, other island regions such as the United Kingdom, Japan, Ireland, Singapore and China Taiwan will decline greatly.
(2) Population:
The second key reason for the decline of Britain and America is that they have too few populations. With only about 4.3% of the world's population, the United States is simply not big enough to support its ambition to dominate the world. China has about 18.6 percent of the world's population, which is larger than the total population of all European countries and the United States. In the past several thousand years, Chinese genes have been trapped by natural barriers such as the Himalayas and the policy of isolation. Therefore, Chinese genes are narrow and introverted. The weakness of Chinese genes outweighs the strength of Chinese genes in quantity. After the Opium War, especially after the reform and opening up, the genes of more and more Chinese people became extroverted genes, which made China's national strength grow rapidly. In the future, China will attract the elite of the world, and the surplus 0.7~1 billion of the 1.4 billion population of China will gradually spread to every corner of the world. China's influence will spread to every corner of the world, which is impossible for the United States to do.
Perhaps Indian population will surpass Chinese population , but its geographical conditions are far weaker than China's in terms of land area, land resources and climate diversity. China's population density has reached the limit of what it will allow to become the world's number one power because overcrowded living space inhibits innovation of its citizens. India's population density has far exceeded this limit. Moreover, China's move to expand abroad will greatly squeeze the space for Indian expansion, and Indian genes will not be able to upgrade from introverted genes to extroverted genes.
Indians are eager to be senior workers in US tech companies, while Chinese are eager to beat all US tech companies to lead the world, so the Indian pattern is far inferior to the Chinese pattern. American companies watch over the Chinese employees all the time and don't trust the Chinese completely. No matter how good the Chinese are, it is difficult for a Chinese, especially a mainland Chinese, to become a senior executive in an American company. But India will never be able to produce high-tech companies or brands like China's Huawei, Tiktok, Alibaba, Tencent.
(3) Culture:
The important reason for the rise of China and the decline of the United States is that China has been selectively and periodically absorbing the essence of western culture including American culture since the Opium War, while the United States has hardly absorbed the essence of Chinese culture. That is to say, the Chinese culture genes have been gradually incorporating the western culture genes, while the American culture genes have almost no Chinese culture gene.
European countries are generally allies of the United States, but no European country is willing to completely imitate American social system and culture, and no European country is willing to be transformed by the United States, let alone the Middle East countries and Afghanistan. Therefore, American culture has huge defects. It is impossible for the United States to lead the world only by virtue of the cultural banner of freedom and democracy. The values of freedom and democracy are parts of universal culture, but not the whole of it.
The United States has ostensibly absorbed a large number of Chinese immigrants and students, but has been reluctant to absorb the best elements of Chinese culture. Thus, American culture, like ancient Egyptian culture, Ancient Greek culture, Ancient Roman culture and British culture in history, is a regional culture rather than a global universal culture. What's more, the US has increased restrictions on foreign students and immigrants in recent years, which will make the American culture more and more conservative and make the American culture in the process of retrogression.
It is difficult for the United States to learn Chinese culture humbly when it has been in prosperity for a long time. After the Civil War, The United States has not experienced the baptism of negation, so the United States will be negated and given up by the world outside the United States and gradually decline. The United States had reached the peak of its power in 2000 before 9/11, and then entered a period of gradual decline.
China's feudal society, far from the center of the world, fostered ancient Chinese culture that lacked international competitiveness. Ancient Chinese culture mainly includes Taoism, Confucianism and Buddhism, which were all weak cultures.
The Opium War completely opened the door of China. After the Opium War, the Chinese mainland absorbed the Western Marxist-Leninist culture and established the new Socialist China. After the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution, mainland China absorbed part of capitalist culture. Hong Kong and Macau, under British and Portuguese rule, were forced to absorb capitalist culture early on. Taiwan, which was ruled by Japan and then supported by the United States, absorbed capitalism and liberal democracy. Therefore, Chinese contemporary culture, which includes mainland culture, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan culture, has covered various mainstream cultures of the eastern and western world, and Chinese contemporary culture has become the most extensive and broadest culture in the world. However, the mainland culture and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan cultures have not been deeply integrated, so the extensive contemporary Chinese culture is not profound culture yet.
But hundreds of millions of Mainland Chinese have studied, travelled, done business, worked and visited families in the West, and within a few years China will be retaking Taiwan, already a part of western culture. In the future, the number of open Chinese people will increase from several hundred million to one billion, and quantitative changes will produce qualitative changes. The culture of mainland China will thoroughly integrate the essence of western culture, and the culture of mainland China will become a global universal culture combining Chinese and western cultures.
(4) Technologies:
In the past few decades, the United States not only has the strongest innovation ability in the world, but also has the largest consumer market in the world to cultivate innovation achievements. Therefore, the technological innovation of the United States can be quickly transformed into productivity in the United States, thus the emergence of Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook and other technological innovation myth enterprises. Now many people routinely believe that Musk's Tesla and SpaceX will be America's next innovation myth.
However, China's innovation capacity is rapidly approaching that of the United States and even has surpassed that of the United States in some key fields. China's consumer market is also approaching that of the United States and will surpass that of the United States in one or two years. Therefore, Tesla cannot continue leading and will be surpassed by Huawei, China's no. 1 high-tech enterprise, within three or five years. China's space prowess and achievements will gradually surpass those of the United States, and Musk's SpaceX will decline in the face of China's space prowess.
Although the United States remains overall ahead in technology, China is catching up faster and faster. In 2021, Huawei's Harmony operating system was officially commercialized, China's space station was successfully put into operation, and China's rover has successfully landed. All these have greatly made up for China's technological gap and broken the technology monopoly of the United States. In August, China was the first to test-fire a hypersonic missile that circled the earth, much to the concern of the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of US. China has become the country with the most complete range of technologies and the broadest industrial base in the world. The United States still have the strongest technical capacity, but China has the strongest technical potential. In about 5-10 years, China will lead the world by surpassing the United States in cutting-edge technologies, and in about 10-15 years, China will surpass the United States in all of important technologies.
Technology is the primary productive force so China's technological progress will rapidly drive China's economic growth. The Novel Coronavirus crisis and the US technology embargo on China will both accelerate China's pace of catching up. Moreover, the US national debt is increasing rapidly, and the US is squandering its hegemony by issuing excess dollars. Within 5 years, the dollar will be substantially devalued and its hegemony will be ended by China's RMB. In about five years, China will overtake the US in GDP. In about a decade, China's Belt and Road strategy will reap the rewards, and the Eurasian continent covered by the Belt and Road will marginalize the U.S. economy.
The speed of decline of US economic and military power based on technological hegemony is underestimated by more than 90% of the world and 99% of the Western countries because they do not know that the leader of the fourth technological revolution is not the US but China. The US, UK and Australia naively and arrogantly plan to deliver nuclear powered submarines for the Australian Navy in 2040. They don't know that by 2040 China's economic and military strength will exceed that of the US, UK and Australia combined. The nuclear submarines delivered in 2040 will pose no threat to China.
The conceited Buffett once said, "In its brief 232 years of existence, however, there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America." and "Never bet against America." America has only unleashed the potential of hundreds of millions of people, especially westerners. Now, I say: "No country except China will be able to integrate all the resources of the world, unleash the potential of billions of people, and unite all the people of the world".
Both the Chinese and American economies have problems with the future. The US uses huge national debt to prop up its military hegemony while Chinese local governments use huge debt to build infrastructure like roads and subways. But the rising China has the capacity to absorb debt and bubbles, while the declining America will be dragged down by them.
(5) Science:
Technology is based on science. In terms of technology, the Chinese used to lead the technological trend of the world with the four great inventions, porcelain and silk in ancient times, but they basically never discovered the scientific theory that could lead the world. Archimedes' law, Euclid's geometry, Newton's law, Gauss's theorem, Einstein's relativity and other western scientific theories have left the Chinese in the dust. All this is because the ancient Chinese lived in an almost closed country and had little academic exchange with foreigners. In the past several thousand years, the scientific capacity of Chinese people was very weak, and very few Chinese people have won the Nobel Prize in physics.
However, the development of science in the West has reached a bottleneck that cannot be broken, and science now needs to integrate philosophical thinking to discover the basic laws of the whole universe. Chinese scientists who have been influenced by Taoism for a long time are generally good at holistic thinking and balanced thinking of philosophy. While the west scientists generally lack the holistic thinking and balanced thinking of philosophy, they are generally bound by religious ideas. With the western scientific theories and eastern philosophical thinking, the Chinese scientists will surely surpasse the Western scientists and climb to the future scientific peak.
(6) Possible war between China and the United States:
The biggest factor affecting China's ability to surpass the United States is the so-called Thucydides's trap, specifically the war between China and the United States. No fight, no friendship, China and the United States have already broken out in trade wars and technology wars. When former US President Donald Trump started the trade wars with arrogance, the Chinese people, especially Chinese investors, were terrified. But now it turns out that The American people's dependence on Chinese goods has increased rather than decreased. The US trade deficit with China has increased rather than decreased, and punitive tariffs on Chinese goods have actually punished US consumers. The US has lost the trade wars and will lose the technology wars again. The plot of the technological wars would resemble that of the trade wars, with the US temporarily triumphant, China temporarily frustrated and then reversed.
But the US may not want China to overtake it. The US, with its military superiority, may provoke a conventional naval war with China. Although the US has overall naval and air superiority, China will prevail at its doorstep in the South China Sea, Taiwan Sea, East China Sea, Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, which are within range of a large number of Chinese land-based missiles. To say the least, even if China loses, a naval war with conventional weapons will not harm China's national identity or curb its overall development.
So will the US be the first to strike China's land with nuclear weapons? The United States will face the following seven obstacles if it provokes a nuclear war: 1, China is bound to displace the United States as the world leader and the United States is bound to lose its hegemony in the world, but this is a matter of leadership rather than survival for the American people. China has far fewer nuclear weapons than the United States but enough to destroy large numbers of American people and property. Thus, the United States will have more to lose from Chinese fighting back with nuclear weapons than from being overtaken by China. 2, The US nuclear strike cannot completely wipe out over a billion Chinese people all over the world, and China has a large number of mountains capable of more or less resisting nuclear strike. The total population of China that survived the nuclear strike is likely to still exceed that of the US. The surviving Chinese will retaliate against the Americans in various ways around the world. 3, The whole world depends on China as the factories of the world. If the United States initiates a nuclear war, the whole world including the United States will face a crisis of severe shortage of industrial products. 4, China has become the biggest drivers of globalization so China has a lot of friends on a global scale. The alliance that the US has drawn up against China does not represent the most people of the world so the United States will lack of broad public support around the world if it provokes a nuclear war. Even if United States wins the nuclear war, it will lose the base of public opinion and moral to continue leading the world. So winning the nuclear war would not prevent the US from losing its world leadership. 5, The United States is now fighting against both China and Russia. In the case of the United States attacking China with nuclear weapons, if Russia Allies with China, the United States will lose certainly; if Russia sits on its hands, it will emerge as a world leader after China and the US both lose. 6, The terrorist attacks at September 11th in 2001 and America's failures in Iraq and Afghanistan amply prove that American military hegemony is not omnipotent, and that the weak, when cornered, have a powerful capacity to retaliate against the strong. If the US starts a nuclear war, it will lose more than it has in the past 20 years. 7, China is rapidly increasing its nuclear warheads and has tested hypersonic missiles that the US cannot intercept. China's nuclear weapons will certainly be able to destroy many key cities of the US.
Therefore, from a rational point of view, the US has no advantage if it engages in a conventional or nuclear war with China. But is it possible that the United States and China could miscalculate and end up in a mutually destructive war? No country is willing to take the initiative to start a war that can't take advantage of. The main reason for starting a war is the misjudgment of the participating countries on the strength of each country, such as Germany's misjudgment on the Soviet Union and Britain during World War II, and Japan's misjudgment on the United States and China. However, in the era of rapid information flow and various realistic live-fire military exercises, both China and the United States can roughly understand each other's real strength through intelligence collection and military exercises. Therefore, the probability of miscalculation between China and the United States is extremely low, and the probability of nuclear war between China and the United States is almost zero.
To sum up, the United States looks like a venerable leader at the age of 50 , while China looks like a teenager at the age of 15. The United States represents the present and China represents the future. After about fifteen years, when China is like a 30 years old person, it will have surpassed the United States economically, militarily, culturally, politically and lead the world. After about fifteen years, when the United States is like a 65 year old person, it will hand over world leadership to China and retire.
3, Huawei will lead the fourth technological revolution and become the world's no.1 high-tech enterprise.
The rise and fall of a country is the most important factor in the rise and fall of an enterprise. With the decline of Japan, Toyota, SONY and Panasonic, which once created the myths of the world, have all stepped down from their altars and will continue to decline. The US is the most important market for Apple, the largest US tech company. China is the most important market for Huawei, the largest Chinese tech company. It is inevitable that China will overtake the US and Huawei will overtake Apple.
The first technological revolution created the British Empire, the second one created powerful Germany and the United States, and the third one created the United States which dominated the world. In the three technological revolutions, China did not make any direct significant contribution and therefore had to "eat soup". However, Huawei will lead the fourth technological revolution, and China will also become the birthplace and model of the fourth technological revolution.
Huawei has taken the maverick and avant-garde employee-owned ownership. Huawei has never been listed since it was founded in 1987. All of its shares are held by about 120 thousands of excellent employees who have made obvious contributions to the company. Ren Zhengfei, Huawei's founder and chief executive, owns only about 0.75 percent of the shares. About 80 thousands of other employees without obvious contributions have no share. Moreover, the shares held by the key employees are valid for long term and the other shares are valid for only five years. For most of shareholders, their shares will be forcedly bought back by the company when they leave the company. Not the speculators but the important employees with contributions share the profits and take risks together, which is the most advanced share system in the world.
Huawei also attaches the most importance to research and development with the most investments in research and development, the strongest fighting spirit, the strongest sense of crisis, the most advanced technology and the highest degree of internationalization in China. In addition, Huawei's corporate campus is the most advanced and sophisticated in China, almost as beautiful as a park. Huawei's r&d facility in Songshan Lake, Dongguan, combines low-density, curvy European-style buildings with soft Chinese water and wood landscapes to make it the highest corporate campus on the earth. All of these advantages make Huawei the rarest, most advanced and greatest national treasure in China.
A smart society connected to everything will be the main goal of the fourth technological revolution. Huawei has all-round technologies including 5G wireless network, cable broadband network, chip design, Harmony operating systems for many terminals, servers, Euler operating system for servers, automatic driving core hardware, operating systems for automatic driving, smart houses, cloud computing, photovoltaic, storage, display, television, mobile phone, computer, tablet, speakers, headphones, watches, printer and so on. Huawei has the world's most comprehensive technologies and the most powerful leadership of the fourth technological revolution.
Huawei's strong strength has seriously threatened the technological hegemony of the United States, so the United States began to slander and sanction Huawei with the strength of its whole country in 2019. Huawei's phones sold overseas are restricted from using Android. Huawei and China could never catch up to Apple and the US without their own operating systems. But Huawei has pushed its own Harmony and Euler operating systems for terminals and servers. Harmony operating system is a hyperterminal system for the Internet of Things, which is widely used in mobile phones, watches, television, smart cars and smart houses. There have been nearly 200 million mobile phones and nearly 100 million Internet of Things devices equipped with the Hongmeng operating system. In 3~5 years, the Harmony system with its incomparable ecosystem will defeat Android system and Apple system so as to become the world's number one operating system. In addition, the server oriented Euler operating system of Huawei will also break the American monopoly. At the same time, American sanctions against Huawei make China's chip industry improve fast.
The sanctions imposed by the United States on Huawei again and again have given the Chinese people another kind of technical innovation mobilization conferences, which will strongly stimulate the potentials of China's technological innovation. Huawei and China's high-tech industrial clusters are bound to break through all the blockades of the United States. The US sanctions on Huawei have squandered its technological hegemony, and the US has won a small temporary benefit. But China's operating system and chip industry will break through all the blockades within a few years. The long-term layouts of Huawei and other Chinese enterprises will make the US completely lose its hegemony in information technologies.
China once developed its own atomic bomb under extremely difficult economic and technical conditions, with no computers and only the traditional abacus, and under strict blockade by all developed countries. Now, China is the world's second largest economy and China has the world's largest number of supercomputers, so China will be certainly able to break through the European and American countries in a few years of various technological blockade.
US sanctions on Huawei have also made Huawei join faster and more aggressively into the competions of smart cars. Tesla's electric cars are still a long way from being truly autonomous. Smart cars and mobile phones are essentially electronic computers, and Huawei has far more accumulated technologies in electronic computers than Tesla. Huawei, which has a full range of technologies such as computers, communications and artificial intelligence, will come from behind to beat Tesla, which is not comprehensive in technologies.
Huawei does not make the whole cars, but it has a lot of core technologies for smart cars. The Huawei version of the Polar Fox Alpha S, a smart car with core components and autonomous driving systems provided by Huawei, will hit the market at 25 December 2021. The new car is capable of high levels of autonomous driving on Shanghai's urban roads, where people and traffic flow are complicated, and it has already surpassed any Tesla car in autonomous driving. Several other brands using Huawei's core technologies will also launch new cars. Huawei is bound to become the first leader in the field of smart cars. Chinese cars with core technologies provided by Huawei are bound to beat Tesla, Volkswagen, Toyota, Mercedes Benz, BMW and Porsche, and China is bound to become the first automobile power.
In addition, Tesla founder Elon Musk's satellite communication plan and Mars colonization plan are the great leap forward plans of sensationalism. At best, satellite communications can complement 5G networks in a supporting role, and Musk is unlikely to challenge Huawei's leadership in communications.
Huawei alone can beat Ericsson, Cisco, Qualcomm, Apple, Tesla and many of European and American companies. Any industry leader challenged by Huawei will decline. Within five years, Huawei will have beaten all competitors including Apple and Tesla to become the world's number one high-tech company. Moreover, Huawei will lead a large number of Chinese enterprises to take the lead in the fourth technological revolution, and China will "eat meat" in the technological revolution for the first time. Huawei is the key leader for China to overcome the middle-income trap.
Industry 4.0 is one of the key field of the fourth technological revolution. Germany was the first country to put forward the concept of industry 4.0. However, the model of Industry 4.0 will be not Germany or the United States which opposes Huawei but China where Huawei is located. Huawei will upgrade China's entire industrial system with the world-leading technologies about 5G, Internet of Things and artificial intelligence. The sanctions imposed by the United States made Huawei temporarily cede some share in the mobile phone market, but it also made Huawei free up more talents and capital from the mobile phone business to invest in the fourth technological revolution.
Boycotting Huawei not only deprives the American people of the most advanced and stable communications network in the world, but will also significantly delay the country's progress towards industry 4.0. The US will lose over $1 trillion due to sanctions against Huawei and another $1 trillion due to boycotts against Huawei. Similarly, all other countries that follow the US in boycotting Huawei will suffer huge indirect economic losses.
It is an inevitable trend for the world to see Huawei beat Apple and China beat the United States. However, the sanctioning and boycotting Huawei will make these trends become realities sooner. Over the next decade, Huawei and other Chinese high-tech companies will significantly undermine competitiveness of Silicon Valley of the United States. The Silicon Valley of the United States will gradually lose its position as the world's technology center.
4, Intellectualistic society will displace capitalist society.
Huawei is not only a representative of advanced productive forces, but also of advanced production relations. Huawei will lead not only the technological revolution, but also the intellectual revolution. The Netherlands led the capitalist revolution that brought capitalism to the world. Why could capitalism replace feudalism? Capitalism followed the trend of flattening power, eliminating most of the power bastions of the hereditary aristocracy and allowing the common people to gain more power. But now, Bill Gates has been one of the three richest persons in the world for more than 20 years, and the monopolies such as Microsoft, Google, Alibaba and Tencent have too much power. Many of capitalism's wealth bastions are like rock solid, preventing the flow of wealth and the flattening of power, so the world needs intellectualism to replace capitalism.
(1) Intellectualistic enterprise stock system: employee-owned system.
Huawei's employee-owned system kicked off the intellectualistic society, and Huawei was the first Chinese enterprise to surpass European, American and Japanese enterprises in terms of corporate system. This advanced system combined with China's huge market will make Huawei the world's number one high-tech enterprise, and Huawei's success will make the world, especially China, rethink the capitalism. Huawei's success points the way for the reform of China's state-owned enterprises and collective enterprises, all of which will learn Huawei's employee-owned system and gradually escape the stock markets.
Huawei's flat ownership structure is in line with the general trend of power flattening and will be used for reference and imitation by most enterprises around the world. A growing number of start-ups will no longer sell equities to the public to raise capital, and most of listed companies will be phased out of the stock markets. As a result, the role of the stock exchange markets will be greatly reduced. In short, both China's socialist public ownership enterprises and western capitalist private ownership enterprises will be transformed into intellectual enterprises like Huawei.
In technology, Huawei leads the fourth technological revolution. In finance, Huawei will change the stock market that has lasted for hundreds of years. In military, Huawei will put an end to the information and network advantages of the US Army. In politics, the rise or the fall of Huawei will affect many aspects of China and the United States, and profoundly affect the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Japan, France, Singapore and other countries that have followed the United States in boycotting or restricting Huawei. Huawei's comprehensive influence on the world will far exceed that of any other enterprise. Huawei will become the world's no.1 legendary enterprise and the world's greatest enterprise.
Kai-fu Lee, the frog in the well of Taiwan, once said that China would not have Chinese Apple for 50 or even 100 years. In terms of technology alone, Huawei will beat Apple in 5 years and crush Apple in 10 years! In the terms of technology, economic system, military and politics, Huawei's comprehensive influences on the world will be more than 10 times that of Apple.
(2) Intellectualistic investment and lending platform: bond exchange market.
With the decline of stock exchange market, the bond exchange market based on enterprise credit system will become the main platform for enterprise financing. All companies can pledge their stock to the bond exchange market, and all individuals can choose to buy the bonds they trust according to the different interest rates of different corporate bonds. At the same time, online lending platforms based on personal credit system will become more and more popular. Deposits at banks will plummet by more than 90%, and most of the money will be lent directly to companies and individuals in need, bypassing intermediaries such as banks.
The largest shareholder of Ali is not Jack Ma who founded Ali but SoftBank, a Japanese company that has invested the most in Ali and is now reaping huge profits. Similarly, Tencent's largest shareholder is not Ma Huateng who founded Tencent but South Africa's Millard. Softbank and Millard invested once for all. The Stock exchanges of New York and Hong Kong have been creating many of the similar stories. On its way to catch up with the United States, China should not turn Shanghai into another capitalist New York, but into an intellectual financing platform. A bond exchange would allow future start-ups to avoid the pitfalls of Alibaba and Tencent, and drastically avoid investing once for all.
President Biden has touted America's venture-capital system, which is deeply flawed. Successful ventures in the early stages of a startup can generally earn easy money for long time. Google, Alibaba, Tencent, etc., are almost earning easy money after a short period of hard work. It is impossible for the venture capital system to cultivate such a strong and far-sighted high-tech enterprise as Huawei.
In simple terms, capitalism is characterized by companies selling stocks for money; the future of intellectualism will be characterized by companies pledging stocks for money. China's Technology Innovation Board is unlikely to produce technological company as powerful as Huawei. China should give up imitating and following NASDAQ and develop its own bond exchange market. Only the bond exchange market will enable China to nurture more technology companies like Huawei and surpass the United States as the world's leading technology power. If China's bond exchange market succeeds, it will be imitated around the world.
(3) Intellectualistic tax: property tax.
All of assets will become liquid assets. All of objects and people in the universe are always in the dynamic balance between getting energies and losing energies. If a person can't get enough energies to balance the losing energies, he will decline. In other words, everyone boats against water flow and will recede if not advance. In the future, most of assets will follow the aforementioned laws of nature. The assets of all individuals over extreme poverty line and the assets of all enterprises will be taxed. That is to say, the real estate tax will be applied to all of assets. The more assets the persons or enterprises own, the more taxes they must pay. The asset tax reflects the balance of rights and responsibilities.
The enterprise income tax and individual income tax will be replaced by the enterprise asset tax and individual asset tax. For the individuals over extreme poverty line and most of enterprises, no matter whether they earn incomes and no matter how many incomes they earn, the tax rate for the assets of them will be same. All of assets will flow faster in the whole society. Innovative enterprises and individuals will benefit greatly.
However, the tax rate for the monopolistic enterprises with more than 50 percent of the market share, such as Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, will be far higher so as to guarantee fair market competitions. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie and Morgan ever monopolized American oil, steel and electric power, which were later curbed by the anti-monopoly law. Today some IT companies monopolize search engines, social softwares, shopping websites, operating systems and personal data so they will be curbed by high tax rate.
All of assets will flow faster among different people and the innovative people will appreciate their assets substantially. Only those who rely on sustained intellectual innovation can maintain or increase their wealth, which is the core goal of intellectualism.
It is necessary and right to curb the excessive expansion of Internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent and Didi as forcefully as the Chinese government has done before the property tax is implemented.
(4) Intellectualistic theory property rights:
We have been emphasizing patents for technological inventions, movie and song copyrights, while ignoring more important property rights of basic theories. The basic theories created by mathematicians, philosophers, physicists, chemists, biologists and economists are the basis of all technological inventions and all social laws. Science and technology, philosophy and politics all complement and influence each other, but most scientists and philosophers from ancient to modern times had much honor but little wealth. Gauss, Riemann, Maxwell, Einstein, Marx, Engels and other geniuses were generally not rich, and some were even poor. Great scientists like Copernicus and Mendel even had little honor and little wealth.
Theorists are not generally rich, and their intelligence is seriously out of whack with their wealth. About 10 million of Swedish Kronor ($1.16 million) of the Nobel Prize, were handed out like pitying beggars to the scientists. The 15, 000 Canadian dollars ($12, 000) of Fields Prize in Mathematics is more like a beggar's prize and an insult to "mathematics is the king of science" and "mathematics is the crown of the natural sciences".
However, inventors of technologies based on basic theories, such as Edison, Nobel, Ford, Bill Gates, Jobs and so on, were generally rich and honored. There are two main reasons for this phenomenon. One is that human society generally paralyzes and deceives scientists with the idea that science has no borders. Theoretical research achievements cannot become patents, while technological inventions based on theoretical research achievements are regarded as sacred and inviolable private patents. Second, scientific and philosophical research generally takes years or even decades to be recognized, while technological inventions can be quickly cashed in.
In the future, all of new theories will become patents and will no longer be quoted or used for free. All of excellent theorists will be very rich because of their paid patients. Even if the theory patents have no value or temporarily have no value to the society, the government should use fiscal policy to make the incomes of most of theorists increase by more than ten times, because the difficulty for them to create new theories is far more than the difficulty of technical innovations and the new theories often take years or even decades to be accepted.
5, China mainland will take back Taiwan within a few years.
Leading the fourth technological revolution, China mainland will quickly overtake the United States in economy and military, thus creating conditions and foundations for taking back Taiwan. Economy, military and culture are the three key factors of the Taiwan problems. The China mainland is Taiwan's father but the United States is Taiwan's godfather. Taiwan worships the United States and scorns the China mainland in economic, military and cultural respects so Taiwan has only recognized its godfather.
If Taiwan is to be completely subjugated by China mainland and willing to accept peaceful reunification, China mainland must become an economically rich, militarily powerful, liberal and democratic China mainland. But it will take the mainland a decade or two to achieve these goals.
More importantly, it is impossible for China mainland to accept a liberal and democratic political system until national unification is achieved. The mainland's promotion of liberalism and democracy must be based on a strong enough internal cohesion, which the mainland now lack because the mainland has a large number of very different ethnic groups, languages and dialects. Therefore, the mainland needs a strong central authority to integrate different ethnic groups, languages and dialects. The mainland needs to take back Taiwan first, force the Taiwanese to accept national unification, and then gradually integrate the mainland and Taiwan. When the cohesion of entire China is strong enough, liberalism and democracy will be realized in the entire China.
National reunification is a prerequisite for the mainland to promote liberalism and democracy, which are prerequisites for Taiwanese to voluntarily accept national reunification. Therefore, the mainland and Taiwan have irreconcilable contradictions on the issue of national reunification. The possibility for the majority of Taiwanese people to voluntarily accept the national peaceful reunification is zero.
The social systems of the mainland and Taiwan are very different. If the mainland takes back Taiwan too early, it will be difficult for the mainland and Taiwan to be integrated, that is to say, it will be difficult for the mainland to "digest" Taiwan. On the other hand, the Taiwan issue is a drain on Chinese resources and an obstacle to Chinese liberal and democratic reforms, so China cannot afford to let Taiwan issue drag on for long.
Therefore, China will force Taiwan to accept reunification at the right time. The mainland may force Taiwan by the following three ways: 1, Similar to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan or the US giving up its extradition request for Meng Wanzhou, the US will give up Taiwan to protect itself in the event of a serious crisis in the future. China mainland will impose a military blockade on the whole island of Taiwan and force the Taiwan government to accept reunification so as to subdue the enemy without fighting. Without American backer, Taiwan will have to accept reunification peacefully and smoothly. 2, If the Taiwanese leaders do not surrender in the face of a military blockade, the Chinese army will execute the precise decapitations of the Taiwanese leaders, overthrow the Taiwanese government and then take over Taiwan. 3, the year of 2027 will be the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Chinese army. By the year of 2027, if the US remains unwilling to give up Taiwan, China mainland will take over Taiwan with forces. China mainland will start a blitzkrieg destroying all of Taiwan's important military forces and sending marines and paratroopers to take over the whole Taiwan. At the same time, the Chinese army will use land-based medium-range missiles, navy and air power to deter or repel possible military intervention of the US.
Given the high probability of a financial crisis before 2028 that would permanently remove the US from economic hegemony, the first two low-cost ways to unification are more likely. After the mainland retakes Taiwan, the Taiwan independence elements will be dealt a heavy blow, the Taiwan independence forces will gradually disappear. Some pro-independence activists will be sent to the mainland for trial and severe punishment. Taiwanese hostility to China mainland and superstition to the US will gradually decrease. China mainland and Taiwan will slowly run in and integrate just like the mainland and Hong Kong. Within a decade or two, the mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan will be thoroughly integrated economically, politically and culturally.
In the past few decades, the economic and social developments of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan generally went ahead of the mainland. Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan have stubbornly resisted the mainland's advanced simplified characters and stubbornly insisted on using outdated and garbage traditional characters. After the mainland recovers Taiwan, the cultural integration of the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will be greatly accelerated. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao will gradually abandon traditional Chinese characters.
On the other hand, not only the language integration of the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan will be accelerated, but also the language integration of the whole China will be accelerated. All of Chinese dialects, including Cantonese, Hokkien, Shanghainese, Chengdu dialect and Dongle dialect, will gradually disappear. Minority languages all over China will disappear. For the first time, China will realize the unification of language, and the cohesion of different ethnic groups and different provinces in China will greatly increase.
The recovery of Taiwan will allow China to solve the problem of internal separation and thus greatly enhance the ability of expansion, China will gradually expand into the Western Pacific and even the whole world.
Every country that is not strong enough may face secession. China has long faced secession issues in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan. After China achieves national unification and its national strength surpasses that of the United States, the national cohesion of China will be greatly enhanced, while that of the United States and other countries will be greatly weakened. Alaska, Hawaii and Texas of the United States may become independent. Northern Ireland and the oversea islands of UK, the oversea islands of France and the oversea islands of Japan could also become independent. Huge Russia and fat India could break apart.
6. China will integrate materialism, collectivism, liberalism, socialism and democracy.
China stood up through decades of resistance and civil war; China has been becoming richer and richer through reform and opening up; China will become powerful through taking back Taiwan by force; China will become great depending on the global universal cultures that integrate Chinese and Western cultures.
China will have owned enough economic and military hard power to compete with the United States when China mainland takes back Taiwan, then China will focus on cultural soft power next.
The Taoism, Confucian and Buddhist cultures of ancient China only had a profound impact on China, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asian countries, and never had a profound impact on the world outside the above-mentioned countries. It is seriously wrong to say that Chinese traditional cultures are extensive and profound.
Chinese Taoism was probably the earliest dialectical materialism in the world, so China is probably the origin of dialectical materialism. The western ideas of individual liberalism and market economy system are similar to the ancient Chinese Taoist ideas of keeping the road simple and governing without doing anything, but the Taoist scholars have not concretized the general Taoist thoughts. Moreover, the rulers of China's feudal society since emperor Wudi of the Han Dynasty abandoned hundreds of thoughts and only respected Confucianism. Therefore, China's feudal society did not carry out individual liberalism and market economy system, China's feudal society lacked liberal and loose innovation environment.
Taoism has always been suppressed by Confucianism and has never become the mainstream ideology in China. Confucianism, which emphasizes good and evil, morality, rules, respect and hierarchy, belongs to idealism. Confucianism is about equal to the art of keeping the people in ignorance. China's feudal society, ruled by Confucianism, lacked vitality and creativity and was vulnerable to the invasion of western countries and Japan.
Although Christianity in western countries is not a scientific ideological system, it emphasizes the power of false God rather than any real individual power, and regards God as the embodiment of a powerful environmental power. Therefore, Christianity is far closer to dialectical materialism than Confucianism.
The rise of China after hundreds of years of decline does not mean that Chinese traditional cultures are rejuvenated. The main reasons for the rise of China included the popularization of Chinese simplified characters and the vernacular, the introduction of materialist dialectics and socialism of German Marxism, the introduction of western market economy system and a large number of Chinese people studying western cultures through schools, travels, foreign trades, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
However, Chinese society still excessively emphasizes various idealistic spirits and morality, and has not implemented complete dialectical materialism. Therefore, Chinese cultures are still inferior to western cultures, and Chinese production efficiency and per capita income are still inferior to those of European and American countries.
Contemporary Chinese socialism and collectivism are also non-mainstream cultures in the world. Therefore, Chinese culture is far less influential than western culture, and China has never been a world power in terms of culture. During the reign of Emperor Wudi of han dynasty, Emperor Gaozong of Tang Dynasty and Emperor Qianlong of Qing Dynasty, China was only a world power in terms of economic and military hard power. China was never a world power in terms of cultural soft power. China was never a great country. Therefore, the rejuvenation process of the Chinese nation is not great if it is only the rejuvenation of hard power. Only the double rejuvenation of the Chinese nation can be truly great rejuvenation. The double rejuvenation means that China will own both world-class hard power and soft power.
To upgrade Chinese culture, China should suppress Confucianism, promote Taoism and Marx's materialism, and appropriately absorb the social system of western countries. Among western cultures, the main characteristics of US culture are liberalism and democracy, while the German and Nordic cultures have more socialist elements than US culture. The main characteristics of Chinese culture are collectivism and socialism.
The two most powerful countries in the world today, the United States and China, defy each other, and neither represents global universal culture. America lacks collectivism and socialism, while China lacks liberalism and democracy.
The liberal and democratic systems of western countries are rooted in populism, respecting the individuality of the majority and bringing out the full potential of the majority. Collectivism and socialism in China mainland are rooted in elitism, which emphasizes heroism and idolatry. Westerners generally pursue a life suitable for themselves and a happy life, while Chinese people generally pursue a life of great wealth and success. The populism of western countries can fully stimulate the potentials of most people, while the elitism of China can only fully stimulate the potentials of a few elites. Chinese GDP is high but per capita GDP of it is far lower than that of western countries. China will overtake the US in terms of total GDP without enough liberalism and democracy. But if China wants to overtake the United States in terms of GDP per capita, it will have to embrace a liberal and democratic system, because only a liberal and democratic system is likely to unleash the full potentials of most individuals of China.
But western liberalism and democracy also have their flaws. In fighting the Novel Coronavirus crisis, Chinese collectivism was better than Western liberalism. Former president Trump's postelection antics and the hooligan intrusion of his supporters into the US Capitol have exposed serious flaws of the western world's vaunted democratic elections. Both liberalism and democracy, which the West has long preached, need to be improved; they are part of universal values, not the whole of them.
The essence of a democratic election is that a simple minority in a society is subject to the will of a simple majority, which may be 20 to 80 or 49 to 51. But the harmony and development of society cannot depend on only 51% of the population. Fairness and equality are only embodied in the voting of one person, one vote. After the vote, some people are happy and some people are worried, and there are two different and even opposite camps in the society. Socialist democracies in Germany and Northern Europe are fairer and better to unite different electoral camps, while capitalist democracies in the United States are prone to antagonism and fighting between different electoral camps.
Sometimes liberalism goes against the democratic principle of majority rule. For example, during the Novel Coronavirus pandemic, a minority of 20% of the population who persist in their freedom not to wear masks or be vaccinated can cause more than 50% of the majority of the population to be infected with the Novel Coronavirus pandemic.
Everyone's human nature is greedy, and everyone's pursuits of freedom are boundless. However, the universe is marginal, and the earth is even more so. Limited social space cannot satisfy the infinite pursuits of freedom of all people, so liberalism must be constrained by collectivism.
The wise choice for China in the future would be to absorb the advantages of western cultures so as to integrate western liberalism and democracy into Chinese socialism and collectivism. When will it be realized in mainland China? After taking back Taiwan, it is impossible for China mainland to abolish Taiwan's original liberal democratic system, which will in turn drive China mainland more or less to carry out liberal democracy. However, taking back Taiwan is only a necessary condition for the mainland to promote liberal democracy, not a sufficient condition. The recovery of Taiwan to achieve national reunification, full integration of all ethnic groups, ethnic groups and provinces, and the world's strongest economic and military strength are all necessary conditions for China to promote liberalism and democracy.
It may take another 10 to 15 years for all these conditions to be met. China has always insisted that centralized power is the right choice in accordance with its national conditions. Western countries should have more patience and confidence in China's liberal and democratic reforms. In about 10 to 15 years, China will become the most powerful country in the world, integrating materialism, collectivism, liberalism, socialism and democracy. The mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao will be integrated economically, politically and culturally.
In order to integrate different parts of China as soon as possible, the teaching and broadcasting of minority languages and Chinese dialects should be stopped in all schools, buses, subway trains, passenger stations and other public places throughout China as soon as possible.
Before it has the conditions to promote liberalism and democracy, China mainland can first carry out Singapore's high salary corruption system to make up for the defects of the existing system and reduce the corruption and bribery of civil servants. Singapore has the most advanced civil service system in the world. Only fat salary, power restriction and power supervision can cultivate clean-fingered and excellent civil servants.
By the way, the government workers were always called as civil servants, which is completely hypocritical and deceitful, because everyone knows that government workers are the managers and rulers with the highest social status. Government workers do not need to receive ascetic meagre wages on the surface and lots of hidden income and free benefits under the table. Government workers should be really regarded as the managers and rulers of the society and receive high salaries and benefits with open hands.
7. Single-family houses will replace apartments as Chinese main houses.
Chinese urban residents generally live in multi-storey or high-rise apartments, while American urban residents generally live in detached or semi-detached villas. The difference in housing between China and the United States is not only due to the difference of lands and populations, but also due to the cultural difference between individualism in the United States and collectivism in China. Many Chinese are obsessed with crowded high-rise buildings so as to regard Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou as representatives of prosperity. In big cities with many tall buildings, people share crowded buses, subways, elevators and garages, and they also share the green space in the community. Too much shared space and too little exclusive space lead to the lack of distinct personality differences among people, which is one of the important reasons for the weak innovation ability of Chinese people. The large amount of exclusive space in the United States is very conducive to the cultivation of independent personality and innovation ability.
The crowded high-rises buildings, almost sunless subways and huge viaducts of China are not advanced things at all. Low-rise office blocks like those in Europe and large villas like those in The United States are a higher, freer flourish. The Tallest building in China, Shanghai Tower, is definitely not the highest level of corporate office area in China. The Huawei R&D base, which is located on the side of Songshan Lake in Dongguan and composed of low-rise European-style buildings and landscape gardens, is the highest level of corporate office area in China and worthy of being learned by other enterprises in China and around the world.
After the implementation of liberalism and democracy in China, the thinking mode of most Chinese people will change from collectivism to individualism, and most Chinese people will pursue low-rise villas of American style, which will help most Chinese people show their individuality and give full play to their personal potentials, and improve China's per capita GDP. But individualists need more living space than collectivists, and China needs to address its shortage of good land.
First of all, Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai hold about 50 percent of China's land, but they only have about 4 percent of China's population. In the future, these areas will be developed and utilized to a greater extent and will receive many populations from other provinces of China.
Second, China's limited territory cannot accommodate 1.4 billion individualistic Chinese, so about 0.7 to 1 billion Chinese will gradually migrate to different parts of the world. The world is always shuffling the deck frequently, and every country's spheres of influence are always changing frequently. However, unlike the United Kingdom and the United States, which rely on military aggression and territorial expansion, China will rely on its strong economic and cultural attraction to make a large number of countries actively attached to and follow China, that is to say, China will have a large number of satellite countries. About 0.7 ~ 1 billion Chinese immigrants to countries all over the world especially in China's satellite countries, so China's per capita land area will greatly increase, most Chinese people will give up crowded skyscrapers, most Chinese people will be like the majority of Americans now have spacious villa, and most of the office space in China will be low-rise buildings similar to those in Europe.
By the way, China will have more and more architectures of European styles. Beauty is based on regular and complex changes, and beauty is best achieved by complex and graceful curves. European architectures, with a large number of curves of arches, domes and arc-shaped supports, are the most beautiful architectures in the world. European-style architectures far outshine traditional Chinese architectures and contemporary Chinese high-rise buildings, and are bound to become more and more popular in China.
8, Females will overall surpass males and dominate the world.
As we all know, social status of females has been rising, the ratio of power between males and females has been decreasing, there are more and more females in positions of power, but overall females are still weaker than males. In other words, the power balance between males and females has been changing quantitatively, but not qualitatively. So, will this qualitative change happen and under what conditions?
Why could light humans defeat heavy lions, tigers, elephants, whales, crocodiles and polar bears and become the rulers on the earth? Because the main axis and the key to the evolution of animals and humans are not muscles or bones but the brains, and human brains are far smarter than the brains of any kind of animals.
Why haven't light females overall defeated heavy males since thousands of years ago? Females are physically and intellectually weaker than males generally. Why are females intellectually weaker than males generally? Intelligence depends on more knowledge and experiences and more complex experiences. For a long time, females generally have fewer opportunities than males to learn knowledge in school. Moreover, the males with better physical fitness and greater security dare to experience more complex lives in many kinds of complex environments, such as dangerous, dark, sunny, cold or dirty environments. As a result, men are generally more intelligent than females.
But the opportunities for females to learn in school are rapidly catching up with males, and the number of females in American colleges has even surpassed that of males. On the other hand, the budding fourth technological revolution will create an intelligent society where everything is interconnected. People can perceive and control the external complex world through communication network, Internet, computers, AR and VR without leaving home. In the intelligent society of the future, too many bones and muscles will become liability and negative asset of males and hinder their brain development, while females will gain an intellectual advantage.
After females gain the intellectual advantages, they also need to overcome their physical weaknesses. Humans can isolate the animals such as tigers and lions so as to make them only live in the wild or in zoos, while females must have close contacts with males. Men's strong bones and muscles can protect themselves and threaten females. Only under the condition that females gain the full ability to defend themselves, can females really gain the dominant position in society. Strong protective clothing and light weapons are necessary for females to get full self-defense ability.
Many scenes in American sci-fi movies like Star Wars and Star Trek lack high technologies. The main characters in the movies often don't wear protective suits with helmets when they fight at close range, and the lightsabers they use aren't effortless, long-range weapons. Even worse, sometimes the main characters fight with aliens with their bare hands. The weapons, protective suits, and fighting scenes of Korean Animated Series Miniforce are closer to the future than Star Wars and Star Trek.
The biggest beneficiaries of gun legalization are females. The gun legalization is the key reason why the social status of females in the western countries such as the United States, France and Germany is much higher than that of the females in the eastern countries such as China, Japan and South Korea. Western females who own guns are much less in awe of males than their non-gun-owning eastern counterparts, who lack the weapons to deter males.
But the females with guns in the west countries still lack critical protective suits and are wary of using lethal guns. In the future, some technology companies will invent powerful protective suits and non-lethal light weapons that will help females fully defend themselves. The protective suits will be similar to the suits of the Iron Man and Ultraman so as to protect the whole bodies of females. The protective suits will help females resist physical violence, metal knives, bludgeon, hotness and coldness. And the suits will be equipped with rearview mirror and night-vision device so as to give females day-and-night and 360-degree protection. And all of the suits will be smart devices connected to the Internet of Things for public security so that the policemen can quickly receive the wireless signal for help from most places. The protective suits and the non-lethal light weapons that can intercept enemies from more than 10 meters away, together form the high-tech protective equipments for the future. And the non-lethal light weapons will replace lethal guns.
Will the protective suits make females hard to move quickly? Yes, more or less. However, nothing is more important than body safety and the protective suits will make it possible for females to turn over the weak status lasting thousands of years. It is worthy for them to endure a little of inconveniences. Moreover, Internet shopping, home office and Internet teaching will become more and more popular and population and population density will both reduce greatly, which will greatly reduce necessity for people to contact at short range. Thus, the females need to wear protective suits just at few dangerous cases. And protective suits will become more and more powerful, lighter and lighter, cheaper and cheaper with progress of science and technologies, which is similar to the development course of computers and mobile phones.
In the future, many males of politicians and the rich will also need such protective equipments besides females. The powerful protective equipments will become important guarantee and symbol of their social status. And they will greatly reduce dependence on bodyguards. The protective equipments on our bodies are more reliable than any policeman or bodyguard.
People will not adore and aspire for tall and strong body shape any longer. The only purpose of physical training will be to maintain physical fitness so all of professional sports tournaments such as Football World Cup, NBA, Olympic Games will disappear. The "heavy" sports of high intensity will be greatly changed or disappear. For example, the height of basketry for basketball will reduce. The "light" sports of low intensity, such as table tennis and badminton, will be more popular. Thus bones and muscles of our bodies will shrink. Height and weight of our bodies will reduce. Consumption quantity of human foods will reduce, which is conducive to environment protection.
Human body trends will favor shorter and smaller Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, Koreans, Vietnamese, etc., against taller and bigger Europeans, Americans, Africans, Central Asians, West Asians, etc.
There will be a transition from now to the time when females overall surpass males. During this transition, short, thin, powerful and excellent males like Chinese Jack Ma, He Jiong, Guo Jingming and Hua Chenyu will be more and more. Japanese people's stature and eating habits will become more and more popular around the world, while American people's stature and eating habits will become more and more unpopular. Humans will eat more foods rich in vitamins and protein, and fewer foods rich in fat.
Gongfu novels by Chinese Jin Yong, Gu Long and others seriously violate the truths of science and technology. They are garbage culture with Chinese characteristics and will be completely eliminated.
9, Marriages and families will gradually disappear.
Long ago, humans had to live like apes in tribal families because abilities of most individuals were too weak. Later, with the growth of individual abilities and the development of power flattening, people got married and had children and lived a small family life. In the future, abilities of individuals will continue growing, humans will greatly break away from the dependence on stable families, and both dynamic families and solitary life will be common.
Mutual love is based on mutually meeting the lover's needs. But needs of everyone change constantly with time and space because everyone always stay in ever-changing environments. No one can always keep up with dynamic needs of one's lovers so love is easy to deteriorate and disappear. We can easily lose old love and easily get new love again. All kinds of emotions between lovers or family members or friends follow the above rules. Some people often ask their lovers:"Do you truly love me?" In fact, difference between all kinds of loves is not "true or false" but different shelf life. Thus, marriages are fragile and there will be more and more extramarital loves and divorces until all of marriages disintegrate completely.
And family seriously hinders optimal allocation of resources. Some clever children live in bad families but some foolish children live in good families. Poorness, quarrel, fight, divorce and death of parents could hinder development of children; and children's trouble could also hinder lives and work of parents. In short, family is baggage of both parents and children. Giving up family will liberate both parents and children, and will improve society efficiency greatly.
In addition, fostering children is essentially one kind of strategic investment of long time. The average rate of return on this investment will continue declining in the future because of human selfishness and the aging population, which is also an important reason why marriages and families will disappear.
Therefore, future lovers will be dynamic and temporary couples based on their dynamic needs and desires. The free society completely based on individuals will appear. Current interpersonal relationship is just like time-consuming dinners but future interpersonal relationship will be like brief snacks. The society without marriage and family would run as follows:
(1) Women in the future will not endure much pain to gratis give birth to the society so governments will reward all of puerperae. And governments will dynamically change quantity of rewards to avoid too many or too few populations. Perhaps, in vitro fertilization and artificial uterus will completely replace the role of pregnant women.
(2) Temporary couples give their babies to governments. Then the parents will be not the sociological parents any longer but the biological parents of the babies. There will be not any of direct rights and obligation between parents and children. Legacy of everyone will be completely confiscated by governments.
(3) All newborn babies with major defects will be euthanized to avoid wasting limited resources on babies with no potential. The anti-abortion laws in the United States are a kind of pseudo-compassionate stupidity.
(4) Governments will set up some special organizations at densely populated areas and hire some professional nurses and teachers to raise and teach children. All of working people must pay the fostering taxes but they will never directly foster children so as to have more time to work and play. In today's society, the rights and obligations between parents and children are very vague, and some parents and children have almost endless responsibilities and obligations. In the future, the rights and obligations between parents and children are very clear.
(5) The influences of rich or poor families on children will be completely eliminated and school bullying will be greatly reduced, which is conducive to creating a better learning environment and a more harmonious campus atmosphere.
These methods not only take individualism and liberalism to the extreme, but also perfectly integrate socialism. The basic units of human society will change from families to individuals. Everyone can give up the family and become freer, and everyone's potentials can be brought into full play. The disappearance of families would allow power to flow more freely across society without being blocked by family walls. The above ways to raise and educate children are like the upgraded versions of Nordic socialism, which optimizes the allocation of resources and greatly improves the overall efficiency of society.
10, World population will reduce greatly.
World population will soon reach the peak because more and more people are not willing to marriage and foster child, more and more people dislike the crowded society, and machines and robots replace more and more workers and farmers. World population will never reach 10 billion predicted by the United Nations. The turning point will appear before population reach to 8 billion and then population will reduce about 50 percent in the decades and then gradually reduce to less than 1 billion.
Moreover, microorganisms, plants, animals and humans together form a big biological family, among which they maintain a dynamic balance. Serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, bubonic Plague, and Spanish flu are all rooted in cosmic forces that suppress excessive population growth and human greed to reshape the ecological balance.
The urbanization lasting few hundreds of years will be reversed. The population of crowded cities will greatly reduce and the population of suburbs and rural areas with better ecological environment will greatly increase. The number of tourists to Antarctica, the Arctic Circle, the virgin forests and the savannas will increase greatly.
Humans will live or play all over the earth and the entire earth's desolate places will be fully utilized, which is more realistic and meaningful than human landing on the moon and Mars. Antarctica, the Arctic Circle, the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, the Amazon forest, the Sahara desert, the Mongolian steppes and other places will become human high-grade residence, high-grade park and high-grade vacation area. Residents or tourists in these places will greatly increase.
In order to make the desolate places of the earth be the safe and beautiful places, the harmful animals in these places, such as polar bears, whales, crocodiles, sharks, poisonous snakes, tigers, lions, bears, leopards, wolves, scorpions, will be completely destroyed by human beings. Since ancient times, there have been a large number of species extinction in nature, and the ecological balance has been changing dynamically, but human beings have been evolving and progressing. Therefore, the extinction of these harmful animals will be just like the extinction of dinosaurs and do more good than harm to human beings.
Most of the white-collar workers will have their own independent office, per-capita area of offices will gradually increase, and per-capita area of single residence will gradually reach to more than 1000 square meter. Most of high buildings in New York, Tokyo, Singapore, HongKong and Shanghai will become slums or disappear. There will be not a city with more than 1 million populations. Thus we will not need harsh measures to reduce carbon emission.
Faster and better Internet and the Internet of things will support low-density and dispersive society in the future. Bandwidth of Internet will be increased by dozens of times to hundreds of times. Video phone, network shopping, network education, network meeting will be popularized gradually. The necessity of contact between people at short range will reduce greatly. Except for experiments of physics and chemistry, all of theory lessons of natural science and social science will spread through Internet. Many middle-aged and old people will get the degrees of famous universities through the network schools. The Internet of things will enable people to remotely control a large number of living and producing equipment through mobile phones and computers, which will greatly reduce the needs for transportation.
As the population reduces, the problem of ageing is bound to get worse, and government-managed pension systems will become harder to sustain. The government will gradually withdraw from the endowment insurance system, and the endowment insurance will be thoroughly personalized and commercialized. It will take a long time for the government to withdraw from the pension system. During the transition period, the government can start by cutting off pensions for those who live longer than life expectancy, leaving them to fend for themselves and freeing up money for others to make society fairer. Those who live longer than life expectancy are the luckiest people in human society. They have consumed more resources than others but most of them have lost value for society. Therefore, the government should not only pay attention to the wealth gap between people, but also pay attention to the life span gap between people. To be as fair as possible, the government and society should reduce the social resources occupied by the long-lived. For example, the elderly people over life expectancy taking public transport should not only be denied discounts but also pay more money than others.
From another point of view, everyone's time for making contribution to society should be roughly balanced with the time for enjoying social welfare. If somebody starts working for society at the age of 22, retires at 60, and dies at 100, then he only works for 38 years out of her 100 years of life. He wins but the society loses. Moreover, the cost of supporting the elderly should never be inverted over the cost of raising minors.
When populations reduce greatly, humans will not need to make harsh measures to cope with climate warming. It's very wise for America to quit the Paris Agreement because the most effective way for environmental protection is to reduce the populations in the world.