Vote Fraud Allegations Gathers Steam

Discussion in 'Politics' started by CivilLiberty, Nov 13, 2004.

  1. CivilLiberty
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    CivilLiberty Active Member

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    As I often say on my blog About Civil Liberties,</a> the right to vote is among the most important civil rights we have. But that right is meaningless if the vote is not counted accurately.

    I have avoided falling into the community of conspiracy theorists by claiming "vote fraud" just because I am personally unhappy with the election results. I'm not interested in what aluminum - foil - hat wearing kooks have to say on the subject. However, in view of mounting evidence, vote fraud is coming mainstream, and it's important that we discuss this topic.

    First of all, let's consider exit polls. How could they be so wrong in certain battleground states? Either the exit polls were very wrong, or the vote count was very wrong. Wrong by <i> more than the margin of error</i> of the polls.

    In Florida, the exit poll was off by 5% in Bush's favor, and in Ohio, the exit poll was off by 6.7% in Bush's favor. 6.7% is a huge difference, and far far past the margin of error for the poll.

    So then, are the exit polls valid? What could account for such a statistical difference? A recent examination of exit polls in light of this election is presented <a href="http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/The_unexplained_exit_poll_discrepancy_v00k.pdf"> here by Dr. Steven Freeman </a> of the University of Pennsylvania. In his study, Dr. Freeman shows that exit polls have historically been a very accurate indicator of election results.

    If polls have been historically accurate, what then accounts for the many discrepancies in this election? And why were these discrepancies isolated to specific key battleground states?

    In the 10 key battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Bush received an average of 4.7% more votes than the exit polls indicated. In NH it was a whopping 9.5%. In 8 of these states the poll was off by more than the margin of error. On the other hand, the swing state of Wisconsin, and in many other states, the exit poll was exactly accurate.

    In some of the battleground states, the difference would not change the election outcome. But in Florida, Ohio, and <i>many others</i>, the difference swings Kerry into the winner's seat - and in a big way.

    Now, perhaps one could dismiss these 8 very unusual anomalies where the poll was off by more than the margin of error as some sort of statistical freak accident. Perhaps one could, were it not for the many thousands of reports of malfeasance relating to the vote in these states.

    In both Ohio and Florida, computer touch screen machines <a href="http://www.infozine.com/news/stories/op/storiesView/sid/4154"> miscast votes for Bush</a>, which were intended for Kerry. A machine in an Ohio precinct awarded Bush an <a href="http://ilcaonline.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=919"> additional 3,893 votes</a>, Thousands of votes were lost by machines <a href="http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1713242,00.asp?kc=EWRSS03119TX1K0000594"> in North Carolina, </a>and Florida machines <a href="http://www.palmbeachpost.com/politics/content/news/epaper/2004/11/05/a29a_BROWVOTE_1105.html"> miscounted absentee ballots. </a>And these are just a few of the problems we know about today.

    A second oddity is that in many of these states, Diebold electronic voting machines are used. These machines do not leave a paper trail of verifiable votes. More curious is that the CEO of Diebold said that he'd "give Ohio to Bush". While it may be inconceivable that such a bold fraud would actually be perpetrated, there have been reports that Diebold machines came "pre-loaded" with 2000 votes for Bush.

    And a final concern is over the manner that the elections were carried out. As an example, in Ohio's more Democratic precincts, voter lines were 10 hours long. This is because Democratic leaning precincts were given only 1 voting machine per 1000 voters, while Republican precincts had 1 voting station per 184 voters.

    So then, where is Kerry in all of this? He made his concession speech, sure - but a concession speech is not legally binding in any way. What if a recount in Ohio or Florida gave Kerry a majority of the electoral college? Then yes, he would become president.

    So is Kerry walking away? I wouldn't be so sure. As <a href="http://www.moderateindependent.com/v2i21election.htm"> Betsy Vasquez writes</a>, Kerry is waging a smarter war on the recount issue - instead of falling into the trap that Al Gore did, igniting the passions of the nation in 2000, Kerry and his team are quietly gathering evidence and seeking the truth. Meanwhile, Nader and Cobb are calling for recounts. With third parties calling for recounts, the focus is shifted off Kerry, who will not come forward unless there is evidence that will change the out come of the election. And if there is, then you can bet that Kerry will become <i>very</i> visible indeed.

    For an additional point of view, see <a href="http://www.opednews.com/swanson_111004_media_black_out.htm"> this story from David Swanson.</a>



    Best Regards,

    Andy Somers
     
  2. Mr. P
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    Mr. P Senior Member

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    Mr. P smells another one.
     
  3. pegwinn
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    pegwinn Top of the Food Chain

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    I am pretty open minded and can concede the possibility of a machine being out of whack. I can even wrap my brain around the idea of a hacker trying to deliberatly get a machine or two to go south. But I would have bet on the DNC folks getting that gravy.

    Then there is this:

    First of all, let's consider exit polls. How could they be so wrong in certain battleground states? Either the exit polls were very wrong, or the vote count was very wrong. Wrong by more than the margin of error of the polls.

    Very simply put, THEY LIED when questioned. Many committed to Kerry and turned at the last moment. The same question was asked about Bill Clinton. How'd he win, no one admitted to voting for him.
     
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  4. CivilLiberty
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    CivilLiberty Active Member

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    I highly doubt any recount will alter the outcome of this election - but that's not the point. the point is that we need to be assured of a fair and accurate count, and a fair execution of the election process.

    Regards

    Andy
     
  5. CivilLiberty
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    CivilLiberty Active Member

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    I'm not sure I buy the hacker bit - for a hacker to do their work, then need access - in the form of a terminal connection, or being at the machine itself. This is improbable due to the fact that these machines are separately locked and not connected to the internet. Without access, there is no hacking.

    I do agree though that an outside hacker would probably lean toward Kerry - but an inside hacker may not.


    As far as the exit polls, sure, people could lie, but there is no reason to assume that some Bush voters are equally likely to lie in polls. Having worked in audience research, I can tell you that disingenuous answers are a pretty small fraction, and not enough to describe the results in only these particular states, and not others.

    Nevertheless, I cannot believe that there was enough fraud of any type to swing this election - for if there were, America is in far more trouble that it appears.


    Regards


    Andy
     
  6. CivilLiberty
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    CivilLiberty Active Member

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    Okay - links removed


    Andy
     
  7. Zhukov
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    Zhukov VIP Member

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    First, as your link concerning the exit poll data itself indicates, those polls were never intended to predict a winner.

    Second, it would be quite easy for DNC supporters to be leaked information regarding which locations would be exit polled and then to pack those polls to skew them, either to discourage voters from voting for President Bush or in an attempt to lend an air of illegitimacy to the ultimate results should the President be elected.


    The first link does not indicate that votes for Kerry were counted for Bush like you say. Is this a mistake or a lie?

    The second link clearly indicates that the excess number of votes was immeadiately discovered and not counted. Nor was their any evidence of tampering.

    I didn't bother to read any other links.
     
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  8. jimnyc
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    jimnyc ...

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    Welcome to the board, Andy. :)

    I agree with you about a fair election process. But I also believe this election went exactly that route. Like you said, any recounts won't alter the outcome. In fact, they won't even come close.

    ALL citizens should demand a fair election process and make sure the newer technology is not breaking down the system. This shouldn't be about Dems trying to look for any little nuance or loophole to try to weasel the election. Bottom line - Bush won the electoral vote and nothing will change that. I just hope those complaining are reaching for a better election process rather than looking foolish like they did in 2000 by claiming the election was stolen.
     
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  9. Zhukov
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    Zhukov VIP Member

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    If this is the case, I wonder how he is taking the fact that many in his party and in the media have already gone on the record complaining about how awful a candidate he was, further marginalizing him, and how he has already vanished from the spotlight faster the Dukakis.

    What you describe is, however appropriate it may be for Sen. Kerry, a losing strategy.
     
  10. CivilLiberty
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    CivilLiberty Active Member

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    Now *that* sounds like a conspiracy theory. Again, here I'm not sure of the answer - Dr Freeman's study discusses various possibilities, but my point is not that I put much or any faith into these anomalies, but that they occurred at all is worth discussing.


    Regards


    Andy
     

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