Official Dow 10,000 thread

So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.

I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?


Those diamonds (DIA) I picked up at 68 are looking good! :woohoo:


And umm...........David? What's with the swapping of avatars?

Are you also Bat Boy / Mountainman? :confused:
 
edit you simply don't understand how the market works.

Okay, no argument from me on that point.

when i used to invest heavily in the markets i looked in terms of long. im pulled my money out in november i was diversified and didn't take that big of a hit. i am still relatively young and have about 20+ years before i retire. im still long in the market and the economy.

Good for you. But how does your situation make the market get healthier, exactly?


i think at this point the economy is gonna fix its self. because with the tax legislations being drafted no private investor is gonna help the government now with toxic assets.

Well I read what you wrote above, but I still don't understand it.

How does the fact that the government is going to own all those toxic debts, and no investor igoing to help the government with those toxic debts, make the market thrive, exactly?

The market will trhive because the government is stuck with a load of toxic debt?

Sorry don't get the connection.

and you know that private investors will not go in? the only reason why they are scared is because the government might change the rules half way...we will see if that happens. if they know they won't get taxed to hell they will help out.
 
Hi Editec with wimpy and David mentioned:

You appear to be the voice of reason around here today. :0)

Please go away with your conspiracy theories you fucking moron.[

Regards terral's last post?

Absolutely nothing even remotely conspiratorial about that post.

We agree. The trends forecasters (from the above post) are saying the markets will continue to go DOWN.

As long as the real estate market is unstable, and people whose majority life's saving are in real estate (and that would be far more people than stock market investors, I suspect) people are going to continue to hold back on spending.

That is Gerald Celente’s advice exactly, which makes sense in any deflationary market were prices are falling. The object of the game is still to buy low and sell high. Right? :0)

And certainly, as long as we're having increasing unemployment and underemployment, people are going to hold back on spending, too.


We agree. Just Google the words “empty malls” and look at the results . . .

Now how the market thrives under those circumstances I cannot imagine.

Wimpy and David spin their wheels around here every day talking the market up, when the trends forecasters are simply telling everybody what the data shows. Period. Now we have a battle between the Washington and Wall Street LIARS :)eusa_liar:), with a vested interest in the stock markets going up ‘and’ the trends forecasters :)eusa_hand:) who cashed out at Dow Jones 14,000 and now have their money in gold waiting for a recognizable bottom. This Geithner Housing Plan (my thread) hype has the markets going up, because too many traders are believing the LIES and everyone else is along for the ride up ‘and’ the ride back down when reality sets in that this debacle will only make the situation far worse. The reason is that nobody is doing anything to shore up the ‘fundamentals’ of the Economy, which would begin by eliminating outsourcing and slowing down the 1.5 million Foreign Nationals coming to the USA this year to ‘displace’ US workers from JOBS. We are still looking at 10,000 foreclosures every day and another 600,000 workers standing in the unemployment line by the end of this month and the next month and so forth. The problem for banks is very similar to the one facing China holding so much US Debt. If China starts dumping dollars onto the open market, then the remainder of their Trillion Dollar investment begins losing value and might even crash the system. When the banks start dumping their distressed properties back onto the open market, that will become ‘the market’ and the price you ‘can’ get for your house will go down to distressed housing levels; which means you will be underwater in no time.

Until the banks start lending, and the people start spending, again, I cannot see why the market would recover much if at all.

Banks cannot lend in deflationary market and survive! The math simply does not work. If you have money to lend, the hand that out in investment opportunities guaranteed to go UP and not down :)cuckoo:).

And if the price of real estate is going to reach pricing associated with incomes as it once was, then the median price of a home in the USA still have about $100,000 to drop, yet.

Or more. :0) If nobody is going to begin protecting the JOBS of the very least among the American workers, and Illegal Aliens by the MILLIONS are allowed to stomp around EVERYWHERE, then you will NEVER see a housing bottom; because the price that real Americans ‘can’ afford to pay will continue to go DOWN. This is like putting a band aid on a patient convulsing from every orifice, when you have no inclination to stop the bleeding from everywhere else. Why bother? :0) This Plan represents just another way for the illegal FED and their U.S. Treasury co-conspirators to hand more money to banks (their buddies) while the regular guy gets the shaft. The details of the Plan say:

PoliticalTicker

Under the new so-called "Public-Private Investment Program", taxpayer funds will be used to seed partnerships with private investors that will buy up so-called toxic assets backed by mortgages and other loans :)cuckoo:).

The goal is to buy up at least $500 billion of bad assets — such as ‘subprime mortgages’ that are ‘now’ in danger of default. Doing so would help cleanse the balance sheets of many of the nation's largest banks, which continue to suffer billions of dollars in losses.
We are talking about ‘subprime’ mortgages that are ‘now’ in danger of default. What about the millions of Americans who already lost their homes and have already gone into foreclosure and the 10,000 going into foreclosure today? Since when will getting ‘subprime’ mortgages off the bank balance sheet help ‘cleanse’ anything, because as of November 2008 only 6.89 percent of mortgages fall into the ‘subprime’ category (story) and represent less than half of the current foreclosures (43 percent in 2007). This Plan does nothing for the situations where the people are underwater and simply walk away. At an average of 250,000 dollars, and 10,000 foreclosures every day, that equals 2.5 billion dollars every day or 75 billion dollars every month in potential bank losses. That means 500 billion dollars is enough money to buy up all the foreclosed properties in the USA for a grand total of 6.6 months or about half of one year. :0) Then the problem is finding a 'qualified' buyer for the distressed property that might have all the walls knocked out and need 100,000 dollars in repairs. If anybody thinks this kind of Plan will work :)disagree:), then simply go down to the local driver’s license office and stand in line to see the kind of service you should expect. Obama’s Plan still creates no JOBS and still hands billions and billions and billions in ‘borrowed’ dollars to the BANKS, just like TARP 1 under Senor Bushie ‘and’ the 10,000 foreclosures taking place ‘yesterday, today and tomorrow’ will go right on the unbalanced balance sheet . . .

The government will then run auctions between the banks selling the assets and the investors buying them, hoping to effectively create a market for these assets.
Now we are going to spend billions and billions and billions of our children’s money and ‘hope’ that something good happens, when the housing market is caught in a deflationary tailspin ‘and’ prices are continuing to go LOWER. Somebody guess what happens when you loan 200,000 borrowed dollars against a house that you ‘know for a fact’ is going DOWN in value to 100,000 dollars in three years? The value of your mortgage-backed security portfolio goes DOWN by 50 percent and you are a loser. If the market is willing to buy up these troubled assets, then we do not need the Gov’t to even be involved.

These bankers do not live in boxes somewhere and they all know plenty of investors, but those investors are NOT IDIOTS and they would rather stay liquid until the bottom falls out of the housing market and they can get three houses for the price of one at the Gov’t Auction. Instead, these bankers are looking for ‘new money suckers’ willing to assume possession of these properties, so ‘they’ (the bankers) can sit on the sidelines and remain liquid ‘and’ buy these same distressed properties back at a MUCH lower price later down the road . . .

To kickstart things, the administration said it will commit $75 billion to $100 billion and would consider how the program is progressing before committing more money.
75 billion dollars is enough to buy up the combined mortgages of US houses going into foreclosure for just 30 days, which is a drop in the proverbial bucket in relation to the SIZE of this problem. We are not even talking about the 8 Trillion-dollar commercial real estate market (story) that is now in jeopardy, the ‘student loan crisis’ (story) and the Credit Card Crisis (story). And all of that does not even begin to address the continuing saga of the AIG Crisis (links) for being stupid enough to insure everybody headed for a ‘Crisis.’ :0)

And THAT would put most mortgages under water, and make most homeowners feel VERY poor, indeed.

About 30 percent of homeowners in San Diego were under water as of Christmas last year (story), which is up to 20 percent nationally (story) and those numbers are only going to get worse (all about the fundamentals again . . . ).

Is the stock market REALLY so disconnected from the financial state of the average American people that it can thrive while they all go broke?

No! The stock market is tied to the housing market and the health of the consumer base that all rise and fall together. When you allow too much Outsourcing of JOBS and allow Foreign Nationals to continue ‘displacing’ US workers from identities and JOBS, then what you are seeing (falling markets) is what you get (and what you deserve). Some Americans have deluded themselves into believing that hiring Illegal Aliens is good for business, when in reality they ‘displaced’ good-paying Americans from among their own customers. Obama’s next move will be to make everyone legal, so the next 20 million Illegal Aliens can come here in the middle of the night to steal ‘our identities and JOBS’ from this current batch.

The amount of money I currently have invested in the housing and stock markets is . . . ZERO. Remember that the smart money got out of the stock market when the Dow was at 14,000. :0) You guys hold onto that depreciating junk until we see the real bottom, then I will come along and pick things up for pennies on the dollar . . .

GL,

Terral
 
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The Buffett Meter is the best way to judge stocks.

That and the P/E.
 
again to lazy to make separate thread. the futures are down almost 80 i know its early but i wonder what they are responding too?
 
Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!
 
Hi David:

Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!

Yes. The Obama Deception (link) is working and more 'new money' suckers are being lured back into the markets that will definitely IMPLODE this fall. Tim Geithner holds the key (link) and the DUPES (pic) are running to his Obama dung like flies . . . and DavidS is Obama's cheerleader . . .

GL,

Terral
 
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Hi Manu:

Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!

didn't the dow do something like this right before it tanked in the 30's.....

Yes. History refers to the event as the 'Spring Rally of 1930.'

Futurecasts.com

This was the "spring rally" of 1930. The stock market remained determinedly over optimistic - bouncing back vigorously after each selling climax - rising in expectation of each possible trade turning point - and falling back only when disillusionment became inevitable.
That noise coming down the tracks is the sound of inevitability from the coming Economic Collapse and the Greatest Depression . . .

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4zL8l0NTe4"]YouTube - Gerald Celente The Greatest Depression is still to come 18 Mar 2009[/ame]

GL,

Terral
 
is it possible that all the financial institutions that just got a trillion dollars in tax payer funds are driving this rally in an attempt to re-create the wealth they lost ......

i mean if a group of investors had a trillion dolloars couldn't they drive the market....

a group like say.....

Group of Thirty - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The current members of the Group of Thirty are:

Paul Volcker - Chairman of the Board of Trustees; former Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Jacob A. Frenkel - Chairman; Vice Chairman, American International Group
Geoffrey L. Bell - Executive Secretary; President Geoffrey Bell and Company
Leszek Balcerowicz - Former President, National Bank of Poland
Jaime Caruana - Counselor and Director, MCM Department, International Monetary Fund
Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. - Chief Executive, TIAA-CREF
Stanley Fischer - Governor, Bank of Israel
Mervyn Allister King - Governor of the Bank of England
Guillermo Ortiz Martinez - Governor, Banco de México
Jean-Claude Trichet - President, European Central Bank
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa - Minister of Economy and Finance, Italy
Zhou Xiaochuan - Governor, People's Bank of China
Yutaka Yamaguchi - Former Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan
E. Gerald Corrigan - Managing Director, Goldman Sachs, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Andrew Crockett - President, JP Morgan Chase
Sir David Walker - Senior Advisor Morgan Stanley
Guillermo de la Dehesa - Director and Member of the Executive Committee, Grupo Santander
Arminio Fraga Neto - Partner, Gávea Investimentos; former President of the Central Bank of Brazil
Domingo Cavallo - Chairman and CEO, DFC Associates, LLC
Martin Feldstein - President, National Bureau of Economic Research
Paul Krugman - Professor of Economics, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
Lawrence Summers - Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University
Ernesto Zedillo, Director, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, Yale University, and former President of Mexico
Gerd Häusler - Vice-Chairman Lazard International
Abdulatif Al-Hamad - Chairman, Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development
Montek Singh Ahluwalia - Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, India
Mario Draghi - Governor, Bank of Italy
Philipp Hildebrand, Vice-Chairman, Swiss National Bank
Kenneth Rogoff, Professor,Harvard University
Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Minister of Finance, Singapore
Tim Geithner, Current United States Secretary of the Treasury

funny they all got bailout money and or gave money to each other....
 
Dow 8,000! We've risen 1,500 points in one month - so we're inching closer and closer to 10,000!

didn't the dow do something like this right before it tanked in the 30's.....

Yes, I think it did.

I think we're basically in uncharted waters though. I hope the market recovers, but I'm clueless about what will make it do that.

Certainly the cconomy on Maine Street isn't driving it up.



1929
Sept. 03 -- Reaches its closing peak for the bull market of the 1920's, at 381.17.

Oct. 28
Plummets 38.33 points, cutting 12.8 percent of the DJIA value, closing at 260.64. See greatest DJIA Gains and Losses of all time here: DJIA Gains and Losses

1929

Oct. 29 -- Falls 30.57 to 230.07 cutting 11.7 percent of the DJIA. These 2 days total 24.5 percent.

Oct. 30
Rises 28.40 to close at 258.47, second largest percentage gain of the DJIA, up 12.34%.

1931

Oct 06 -- Rises 12.86 to close at 99.34, largest percentage gain of the DJIA, up 14.87%.

1932

Jul. 08 -- Falls .59 to close at 41.22.

This decline from Sep. 03 1929 totaled 339.95 for a percentage drop of 89.19%

source
 
So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.

I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?


Those diamonds (DIA) I picked up at 68 are looking good! :woohoo:


And umm...........David? What's with the swapping of avatars?

Are you also Bat Boy / Mountainman? :confused:


Thu Apr 2, 2009 5:51pm BST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global stocks rose sharply on Thursday and the price of government debt fell on optimism over efforts by world leaders meeting in London to solve the economic crisis and a change in U.S. accounting rules that will help troubled banks.

Oil prices surged more than 8.0 percent to above $52 a barrel after world leaders at the G20 summit agreed to pump an additional $1 trillion (678 billion pounds) into the ailing global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund.

The positive tone coming from the G20 summit raised the risk appetite for many asset classes by raising hopes among investors that a coordinated effort was underway to tackle the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

U.S. government bonds extended losses as investors piled into equities while euro zone government bonds slid after the European Central Bank cut interest rates a less-than-expected one-quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent.

The euro soared to nearly $1.35 after the ECB confounded expectations for a deeper cut to 1.0 percent. But the euro eased a bit after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet refused to rule out additional rate cuts in the future.

The G20 news and the change in FASB accounting rules more than offset data which showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to the highest in more than 26 years in the latest week.

Stock markets in Europe, on Wall Street and an index for global stocks all rose more than 4.0 percent and an equities index for emerging markets surged more than 6.0 percent.

Financial shares, a sector that led stocks deep into bear territory but a key driver behind a recent equity rally, surged on bets for an improving global economy and the easing of U.S. accounting rules that have battered their balance sheets. Continued...
Global stocks surge on G20 optimism | Reuters
 
It's amazing what competent leadership can do.

Eight more years of Republican whinning.

I love it!
 
So, the market is rallying beyond all hopes and dreams and is up 10%+ since last week, which means we're well on our way to DOW 10,000.

I believe we'll see DOW 10,000 sometime during the summer. So, any of you believe we'll see DOW 10,000 this year?


Those diamonds (DIA) I picked up at 68 are looking good! :woohoo:


And umm...........David? What's with the swapping of avatars?

Are you also Bat Boy / Mountainman? :confused:


Thu Apr 2, 2009 5:51pm BST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global stocks rose sharply on Thursday and the price of government debt fell on optimism over efforts by world leaders meeting in London to solve the economic crisis and a change in U.S. accounting rules that will help troubled banks.

Oil prices surged more than 8.0 percent to above $52 a barrel after world leaders at the G20 summit agreed to pump an additional $1 trillion (678 billion pounds) into the ailing global economy through extra funding for groups like the International Monetary Fund.

The positive tone coming from the G20 summit raised the risk appetite for many asset classes by raising hopes among investors that a coordinated effort was underway to tackle the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

U.S. government bonds extended losses as investors piled into equities while euro zone government bonds slid after the European Central Bank cut interest rates a less-than-expected one-quarter percentage point to 1.25 percent.

The euro soared to nearly $1.35 after the ECB confounded expectations for a deeper cut to 1.0 percent. But the euro eased a bit after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet refused to rule out additional rate cuts in the future.

The G20 news and the change in FASB accounting rules more than offset data which showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to the highest in more than 26 years in the latest week.

Stock markets in Europe, on Wall Street and an index for global stocks all rose more than 4.0 percent and an equities index for emerging markets surged more than 6.0 percent.

Financial shares, a sector that led stocks deep into bear territory but a key driver behind a recent equity rally, surged on bets for an improving global economy and the easing of U.S. accounting rules that have battered their balance sheets. Continued...
Global stocks surge on G20 optimism | Reuters


Is the train leaving the station? :popcorn:

Looking back at the last five US recessions dating back to the early 1970s. Three of the five recessions saw the unemployment rate continue to rise even after the recession was officially over. This is why the number is often referred to as a lagging economic indicator. Today’s reading of 6.5% unemployment is the highest since the 1990’s, but well below the 10.8% reading in November 1982. I do believe we will see the reading rise to the mid-7% level before we top out, however the market will likely be well off the lows by the time this occurs.

During all five recessions the stock market (S&P 500) bottomed months before the worst unemployment reading was released. When the worst news hits the news wires, the S&P 500 was up on average 30% from the lows over the last five years. For example if the unemployment rate decides to climb another 1% and peaks early next year, there is a good chance the stock market would have already bottomed months earlier.
Correlation Between The Unemployment Rate And Actions Of The Stock Market | Daily Markets
 
It's amazing what competent leadership can do.

Eight more years of Republican whinning.

I love it!

Hey traitor,

did you give bush credit when it hit 14,000?

Dear Elvis:

Under my leadership, the Dow went from 3300 to 13000.

Signed,

Bill Clinton


Perhaps he was just in the right place at the right time? :eusa_whistle:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^DJI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=

Just when you think it will get even worse

On March 9th, 2009, the Wall Street Journal featured the following article: 'Dow 5,000? There's a case for it.' Ironically, the Dow (NYSEArca: DIA - News) and other indexes bottomed that day and rallied 20% or more since. By the definition of many common Wall Street guidelines, this 20% bounce technically reigned in a new bull market.

The government's recent plans to tackle the economic crisis are commonly credited for sparking this rally. MarketWatch reported on March 26th, 'faster than Geithner seemed to be going down with the financial ship, he now appears to be confidently leading us to shore. Geithner is the face of this week's market rally.'

In actuality, the market had started to rally two weeks before President Obama, Mr. Geithner or anyone else offered any significant suggestions. The market's rally is in full harmony with the January 15th ETF Profit Strategy outlook: 'The best target for a low is 6,700 for the Dow and 700 for the S&P 500. Extreme pessimistic sentiment may drive the indexes even towards Dow 6,000 and S&P 600. Once the new lows are reached, the markets should stage the biggest rally seen since October 2007.'

According to Birinyi Associates, this 20% rebound within 13 trading days was the fastest 20% rebound from a bear market low since 1938. Yet, bears are concerned that this rally will prove to be just another decoy rally like the one seen late last year.

The mere suspicion connected with the recent bounce means that this rally has further to go. The rally will likely exhaust itself once the general belief sets in that March 9th marked the end of this bear market.

Just in time for the biggest profits, ETF Profit Strategy subscribers received a Trend Change Alert notice on March 2nd outlining ETF profit strategies for conservative, moderate and aggressive investors.

Our recommendations ranged from plain vanilla ETFs such as the iShares Russell 3000 (NYSEArca: IWV - News), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News) and Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSEArca: VCR - News) to aggressive plays such as the Ultra Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: UYG - News) and Ultra S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SSO - News).

As mentioned earlier, investors commonly believe that a 20% rise in the Dow or S&P signals a new bull market. More often than not, a new bull market tends to back up a 20% bounce. However, there are occasions where a 20% rally was followed by lower lows. From November 1929 to April 1930, the Dow Jones rallied 48%. This rally however was followed by an 85% drop from the April 1929 highs to the July 1932 lows.

An analysis of more than just investor sentiment is needed to determine whether this rally, however powerful it may be, will reign in a new bull market. An analysis of dividend yields and P/E ratios shows that major market bottoms always go hand in hand with dividend yields and P/E ratios reaching certain levels.

In fact, a study of those two indicators lets you pin-point a target range for the ultimate market bottom

.

The March issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter contains a detailed study of the four most powerful long-term gauges (including dividend yields and P/E ratios) along with specific target ranges for the end of this bear market.

Knowledge is the most important asset when it comes to protecting your wealth, however as Sudie Back put it, 'Be curious always! For knowledge will not acquire you; you must acquire it.'
Is It Time To Put Your Cash To Work? - Yahoo! Finance


APRIL 1, 2009, 6:25 P.M. ET

Direct Edge Argues Against Bringing Back Short-Selling Rule


By Jacob Bunge

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Electronic equities platform Direct Edge urged financial regulators to maintain and strengthen current short-selling rules, following calls from U.S. stock exchanges to reinstate limits on the practice.

In a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission, Direct Edge general counsel Eric W. Hess said that bringing back the uptick rule, a repealed regulation that limited short sales, is an "ineffective and potentially harmful" approach to stemming rapid declines in share prices.

The Direct Edge letter comes after a joint statement last week from NYSE Euronext (NYX), Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ), BATS Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, which urged SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro to implement a "modified uptick rule."

That proposal would restrict short selling when a stock declines by 10% or more in a single session.

Direct Edge hit out at that plan Wednesday, suggesting that putting a price restriction on short selling would create price distortions, while continuing to allow "synthetic short activity" in the same stocks with the potential for greater market abuses.

Instead, Direct Edge supports further disclosure obligations around short interest, which would help regulators watch for abusive trading patterns.

The SEC last fall imposed a temporary ban on short selling, a practice in which traders seek to profit from a declining stock price, as part of efforts to curb volatility in equities markets.

A reinstatement of the uptick rule is intended to answer the concerns of listed companies that worry that short-sellers could drive down their shares.

Direct Edge has been vying with BATS for the title of third-largest U.S. equities platform, behind NYSE Euronext and Nasdaq OMX.

Article - WSJ.com

Traders are cautiously backing a modified uptick rule proposal the exchanges are pushing to the Securities and Exchange Commission. The proposal from the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq OMX Group, BATS Exchange and the National Stock Exchange, first reported on wallstreetletter.com on March 24, limits short selling when a threshold is reached.


Several Congressmen have been calling for a reinstatement of the old uptick rule, which allows shorting only when a security’s price is going up (WSL, 3/20). Although traders say the exchanges’ proposal leaves more short sales wiggle room than the previous uptick rule, they have concerns about the rule’s implementation.


Under this modified rule, a circuit breaker would let short orders through only when the security’s price is above the highest prevailing national bid. The circuit breaker would be triggered when a security’s price has gone down a certain ...

Traders Back Exchange Push On Uptick Rules : Wall Street Letter
 
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