Trump's immigration reform platform vs. Latino voter statistics

[Statistikhengst]

Illegals don't vote-- at least they shouldn't

So, you didn't read the OP, and instead, you just write stupid stuff.

 

[Statistikhengst]

You see folks. ALL the left/Democrats cares about is VOTES. they don't care what is BEST for you and our country. as we've seen the PEOPLE are fed up with being fed this lies and ILLEGAL immigrants being put ABOVE us legal citizens in this country

vote out this Progressive/democrat/commie party in 2016

So, you didn't read the OP, and instead, you just write stupid stuff.

 

[gipper]

Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.

I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.

There was a wall built centuries ago that worked well for a long time. While not entirely impregnable from military attack, it did keep nomadic peoples out. You might of heard of it...the Great Wall of China.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.

This is half way true. Walls have been built to keep people out. How long have those walls lasted?

 

[Statistikhengst]

I doubt it would cost 400 billion to build the wall if the project was properly managed, and not bogged down with environmental bullshit and bureaucratic nonsense like the fence was.

Even at 10 million dollars a mile a 1933 mile long wall would be less than 20 billion dollars. Incidentally 10 million per mile is how much it costs to build a 4 lane highway through an urban area.

Usual horseshit from the right

USA
According to MI DOT
Quote:
A mile of freeway through an urban area costs approximately $39 million, while a mile of freeway through a rural area costs approximately $8 million.

Make the illegals dig a border trench and wall

How are you going to enforce that? Are we going to build forced-labor camps for illegal aliens we round up? Is that what you suggest?

 

[Statistikhengst]

I doubt it would cost 400 billion to build the wall if the project was properly managed, and not bogged down with environmental bullshit and bureaucratic nonsense like the fence was.

Even at 10 million dollars a mile a 1933 mile long wall would be less than 20 billion dollars. Incidentally 10 million per mile is how much it costs to build a 4 lane highway through an urban area.

Usual horseshit from the right

USA
According to MI DOT
Quote:
A mile of freeway through an urban area costs approximately $39 million, while a mile of freeway through a rural area costs approximately $8 million.

Make the illegals dig a border trench and wall

and Make Mexico pay for it. they have no DESIRES to keep their own people in their shithole

And exactly how is anyone going to make Mexico pay for anything? If you think that reducing or eliminating foreign aid is going to make them pay for such a huge project on OUR side of the border, think again.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Funny how the Left gets in a tizzy over deportations of illegals and the building of a wall on the border, but has no problem with PP selling murdered baby parts....well 'funny' is a poor word choice.

Who on the Left is getting in a "tizzy" about any of this? I'm not.
Please point to the sentence in the OP where I say that I am against a wall.

I just doubt that such a wall will be very successful.

Thanks.

 

[gipper]

With the 14th Amendment 'repealed,' the states would be at liberty to deny a criminal defendant his 6th Amendment right to counsel, his 5th Amendment right to due process, and the states would be at liberty to enact a complete and comprehensive ban on all firearms.

The 14th Amendment is much, much more than just 'birth right' citizenship, it acknowledges, codifies, and safeguards our inalienable rights from attack by all manifestations of government.

Since when does the Left consider the Constitution when making or changing laws?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Funny how the Left gets in a tizzy over deportations of illegals and the building of a wall on the border, but has no problem with PP selling murdered baby parts....well 'funny' is a poor word choice.

It is not only that, but how vehemently they support lawlessness for fucking votes...

I don't need any votes to decide to fuck...

 

[candycorn]

First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.

Here is Trump's immigration platform:

Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President

The main points that Trump says:

-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.

That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.

-make Mexico pay for the wall.

This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:

"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

So, let's do some math:

Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:

List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

971 million, according to Wikipedia.

Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:

Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent

7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..


And then there is this:

"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."

At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.

and this:

"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."

Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.

So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.


So, do the math:

1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose

vs.

400 BILLION to make this all happen.

Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?

There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.

That's it in a nutshell.

Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.

Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:

The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions

It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.

Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.

Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.

6 key states are also in the study.


So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.

And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.

My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.

Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?

1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.

2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.

3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.

4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.

My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.

That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.

Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.

Basically what we saw was the beginning of the end of the Trump candidacy. The Latino vote is not key to winning the GOP nomination but it would be for winning the General. Nobody would win the women's vote vs. Clinton so the vote of Hispanics and other Minorities becomes even more important. This plan puts it out of reach for Trump.

I'll expand on it further when he finally goes away but it underscores that politics is a profession.

That was a good breakdown by the way. One thing I would add is that the additional hurdles he's placing on hiring means higher operating costs (taxes if you will) for small businesses.

 

[gipper]

Funny how the Left gets in a tizzy over deportations of illegals and the building of a wall on the border, but has no problem with PP selling murdered baby parts....well 'funny' is a poor word choice.

It is not only that, but how vehemently they support lawlessness for fucking votes...

I don't need any votes to decide to fuck...

NOW you have a sense of humor???

 

[Statistikhengst]

First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.

Here is Trump's immigration platform:

Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President

The main points that Trump says:

-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.

That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.

-make Mexico pay for the wall.

This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:

"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

So, let's do some math:

Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:

List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

971 million, according to Wikipedia.

Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:

Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent

7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..


And then there is this:

"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."

At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.

and this:

"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."

Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.

So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.


So, do the math:

1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose

vs.

400 BILLION to make this all happen.

Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?

There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.

That's it in a nutshell.

Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.

Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:

The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions

It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.

Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.

Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.

6 key states are also in the study.


So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.

And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.

My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.

Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?

1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.

2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.

3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.

4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.

My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.

That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.

Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.

Jeb just came out against the 14th amendment, so as far as latino (non Cuban) voters go, I doubt the gop is going to get more than 10% regardless of whom they run.

I predicted last year that Hillary is going to get 80% of the Latino vote. I may have to adjust that figure upwards.

Righties just don't get it.

They scream and they holler, but they just don't get it.

Oh, and they don't know how to read an OP.

 

[Statistikhengst]

First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.

Here is Trump's immigration platform:

Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President

The main points that Trump says:

-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.

That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.

-make Mexico pay for the wall.

This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:

"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

So, let's do some math:

Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:

List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

971 million, according to Wikipedia.

Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:

Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent

7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..


And then there is this:

"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."

At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.

and this:

"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."

Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.

So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.


So, do the math:

1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose

vs.

400 BILLION to make this all happen.

Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?

There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.

That's it in a nutshell.

Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.

Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:

The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions

It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.

Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.

Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.

6 key states are also in the study.


So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.

And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.

My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.

Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?

1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.

2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.

3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.

4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.

My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.

That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.

Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.

Basically what we saw was the beginning of the end of the Trump candidacy. The Latino vote is not key to winning the GOP nomination but it would be for winning the General. Nobody would win the women's vote vs. Clinton so the vote of Hispanics and other Minorities becomes even more important. This plan puts it out of reach for Trump.

I'll expand on it further when he finally goes away but it underscores that politics is a profession.

That was a good breakdown by the way. One thing I would add is that the additional hurdles he's placing on hiring means higher operating costs (taxes if you will) for small businesses.

Thanks. I left out some of his plan, hoping that people will read it, as you did.

Some of the things he proposes are really BIG, BIG GOVERNMENT solutions.

Fascinating.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The amount of RWNJ stupid on this thread is nothing less than mind-numbing.

Are you yahoos even capable of reading anything before you scream like banshees?

 

[candycorn]

The amount of RWNJ stupid on this thread is nothing less than mind-numbing.

Are you yahoos even capable of reading anything before you scream like banshees?

Again, conservatism = laziness. It's a condition that takes over when you stop engaging, stop caring, and stop seeking solutions and just give up.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The amount of RWNJ stupid on this thread is nothing less than mind-numbing.

Are you yahoos even capable of reading anything before you scream like banshees?

Again, conservatism = laziness. It's a condition that takes over when you stop engaging, stop caring, and stop seeking solutions and just give up.

Yepp.

Even the most basic of math goes right over their heads.

Building a 1,954 mile long wall is going to take a helluva lot of time, manpower and energy. I don't doubt that it's physically possible to do. It's possible. But it will cost far more than people can imagine, it will take far longer to do than people can imagine and there is no way in hell that we or any other nation could force Mexico to pay for something that is not its own project. The rhetoric is almost borderline national-socialistic rhetoric as from 1933-1945. That really IS disturbing and I bet that Latinos all over the place within and outside of the USA are displeased at what they read.

And Trump did not mention the northern border to Canada at all.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I could actually envision, with the right President, an agreement with Mexico where a joint wall could be built on both sides of the border, at least for long stretches, with a form of DMZ between the two countries. But Trump's contention here is that Mexico wishes us ill and is deliberately sending the worst of its criminals across the border as illegal aliens. Essentially, Trump is accusing another sovereign nation of an invasion.

 

[gipper]

First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.

Here is Trump's immigration platform:

Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President

The main points that Trump says:

-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.

That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.

-make Mexico pay for the wall.

This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:

"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

So, let's do some math:

Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:

List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

971 million, according to Wikipedia.

Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:

Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent

7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..


And then there is this:

"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."

At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.

and this:

"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."

Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.

So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.


So, do the math:

1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose

vs.

400 BILLION to make this all happen.

Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?

There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.

That's it in a nutshell.

Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.

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Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.

Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:

The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions

It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.

Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.

Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.

6 key states are also in the study.


So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.

And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.

My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.

Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.


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So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?

1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.

2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.

3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.

4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.

My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.

That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.

Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.

Basically what we saw was the beginning of the end of the Trump candidacy. The Latino vote is not key to winning the GOP nomination but it would be for winning the General. Nobody would win the women's vote vs. Clinton so the vote of Hispanics and other Minorities becomes even more important. This plan puts it out of reach for Trump.

I'll expand on it further when he finally goes away but it underscores that politics is a profession.

That was a good breakdown by the way. One thing I would add is that the additional hurdles he's placing on hiring means higher operating costs (taxes if you will) for small businesses.

Thanks. I left out some of his plan, hoping that people will read it, as you did.

Some of the things he proposes are really BIG, BIG GOVERNMENT solutions.

Fascinating.

Of course it is big government. Trump is a progressive like so many Rs and Ds....and you.

So tell me again why you dislike him so much?

 

[whitehall]

Is it about the cost of a wall on the southern border? How about a well maintained fence? Three or four of Barry Hussein's elaborate apology trips would have paid for it. Lefties are always promoting jobs that result from infrastructure repair and maintenance but for some reason the ignorant leftie hypocrites don't seem to care about the government jobs that would be created from building a freaking fence across the southern border..

 

[guno]

I doubt it would cost 400 billion to build the wall if the project was properly managed, and not bogged down with environmental bullshit and bureaucratic nonsense like the fence was.

Even at 10 million dollars a mile a 1933 mile long wall would be less than 20 billion dollars. Incidentally 10 million per mile is how much it costs to build a 4 lane highway through an urban area.

Usual horseshit from the right

USA
According to MI DOT
Quote:
A mile of freeway through an urban area costs approximately $39 million, while a mile of freeway through a rural area costs approximately $8 million.

Make the illegals dig a border trench and wall

and Make Mexico pay for it. they have no DESIRES to keep their own people in their shithole

Someone should dig a mote around your trailer park