Trump's immigration reform platform vs. Latino voter statistics

I doubt it would cost 400 billion to build the wall if the project was properly managed, and not bogged down with environmental bullshit and bureaucratic nonsense like the fence was.

Even at 10 million dollars a mile a 1933 mile long wall would be less than 20 billion dollars. Incidentally 10 million per mile is how much it costs to build a 4 lane highway through an urban area.


Illegals siphon off $4 billion dollars a year filing for fraudulent child tax credit refunds alone, that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's $40 billion over the next 10 years BOOM! Its estimated over 30% of illegals are participating in this scam already, and it gets worse every year.
 
Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.
I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.

Well of course in olden days there was the Great Wall of China to repel invading hordes. And the Berlin Wall to keep the people in.

Fast forward to now. Just off the top of my head you have the Israeli West Bank barrier. 400 plus miles.

Saudi Arabia is going to build a 600 mile barrier from Jordan to Kuwait.

There's a couple for you. Not only to barriers make sense but one needs to up the money for deportation centers that can quickly process people for deportation.

Key word is quickly.
That's the problem, you and others on the right are still stuck in the 'olden days.'

And that you would advocate for the same policy here as Israel's policy in the West Bank is both sad and telling.

Fuck you. Israel's barrier has worked. Saudi Arabia is building a 600 mile barrier.

And no right wingers aren't crazy to want to protect the country's borders.

Left wingers are madmen who want to let anyone and everyone into the country without any checks or balances.

That's fucking insane. Sheer madness.
 
Check this out.

Name Country Built Length (km) Type
Belize-Guatemala
Belize Proposed N/A Disputed Territory and Anti-illegal immigration

Botswana/Zimbabwe Botswana and Zimbabwe 2003 500 Anti-illegal immigration

Brunei/Limbang Brunei and Limbang 2005 20 Anti-illegal immigration

Bulgaria/Turkey Bulgaria and Turkey 2014 30 Anti-illegal immigration

Ceuta border fence Spain 2001 8 Anti-illegal immigration

China/Hong Kong Hong Kong 1960s -early 32 Anti-illegal immigration

Costa Rica/Nicaragua Costa Rica Proposed N/A Anti-illegal immigration

Chinese-Korean border fence China and North Korea Under construction 1,416 Anti-illegal immigration

Egypt-Gaza barrier Egypt 1979, subterranean barrier under construction 3.1 Anti-terrorism and anti-illegal immigration

Malaysia-Thailand border Thailand and Malaysia Proposed 650 Anti-terrorism

Melilla border fence Spain 1998 11 Anti-illegal immigration

Hungarian-Serbian barrier Hungary Under construction 175 Anti-illegal immigration

Indo-Bangladeshi barrier India Under construction 3,268 Anti-illegal immigration

Indo-Burma barrier India Under construction 1,624 Anti-drug smuggling and anti-terrorism

Indian Kashmir barrier India 2004 550 Anti-terrorism (disputed territory)

Iran-Pakistan barrier Iran and Pakistan Under construction 700 Anti-drug smuggling

Kazakh-Uzbekistan barrier Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2006 45 Anti-drug smuggling

Korean Demilitarized Zone North Korea and South Korea 1953 248 Conflict zone

Kruger National Park South Africa and Mozambique 1975 120 Anti-illegal immigration

South Africa/Zimbabwe Border South Africa 2000's 2900 Anti-illegal immigration, Anti-drug Smuggling, Anti Weapon Smuggling

Kuwait-Iraq barrier Kuwait and Iraq 1991 193 Conflict zone

Pakistan-Afghanistan barrier Pakistan Proposed 2,400 Anti-terrorism

Saudi-Yemen barrier Saudi Arabia and Yemen 2004 75 Anti-illegal immigration

Saudi-Iraq barrier Saudi Arabia and Iraq 2006 900 Anti-illegal immigration and Conflict zone

Turkmen-Uzbekistan barrier Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan 2001 1,700 Anti-illegal immigration

Ukraine-Russia barrier Ukraine and Russia Under construction 2,000 Anti Weapon Smuggling and Conflict zone

United Arab Emirates-Oman barrier United Arab Emirates and Oman Under construction 410 Anti-illegal immigration

United States–Mexico barrier United States Under construction 3,360 Anti-illegal immigration and drug smuggling

Uzbek-Afghanistan barrier Uzbekistan and Afghanistan 2001 209 Anti-illegal immigration

Uzbek-Kyrgyzstan barrier Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan 1999 870 Conflict zone

Border barrier - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
 
Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.
I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.

Well of course in olden days there was the Great Wall of China to repel invading hordes. And the Berlin Wall to keep the people in.

Fast forward to now. Just off the top of my head you have the Israeli West Bank barrier. 400 plus miles.

Saudi Arabia is going to build a 600 mile barrier from Jordan to Kuwait.

There's a couple for you. Not only to barriers make sense but one needs to up the money for deportation centers that can quickly process people for deportation.

Key word is quickly.
That's the problem, you and others on the right are still stuck in the 'olden days.'

And that you would advocate for the same policy here as Israel's policy in the West Bank is both sad and telling.

Fuck you. Israel's barrier has worked. Saudi Arabia is building a 600 mile barrier.

And no right wingers aren't crazy to want to protect the country's borders.

Left wingers are madmen who want to let anyone and everyone into the country without any checks or balances.

That's fucking insane. Sheer madness.
I don't object to a fence, so long as it's paid for without raising my taxes. However, even with a fence, they'll keep coming if they can find work, and the gop chooses not to address that because inevitably they'll piss off either the chambers of commerce or the "deport em" groups.
 
Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.
I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.

Well of course in olden days there was the Great Wall of China to repel invading hordes. And the Berlin Wall to keep the people in.

Fast forward to now. Just off the top of my head you have the Israeli West Bank barrier. 400 plus miles.

Saudi Arabia is going to build a 600 mile barrier from Jordan to Kuwait.

There's a couple for you. Not only to barriers make sense but one needs to up the money for deportation centers that can quickly process people for deportation.

Key word is quickly.
That's the problem, you and others on the right are still stuck in the 'olden days.'

And that you would advocate for the same policy here as Israel's policy in the West Bank is both sad and telling.

Fuck you. Israel's barrier has worked. Saudi Arabia is building a 600 mile barrier.

And no right wingers aren't crazy to want to protect the country's borders.

Left wingers are madmen who want to let anyone and everyone into the country without any checks or balances.

That's fucking insane. Sheer madness.
I don't object to a fence, so long as it's paid for without raising my taxes. However, even with a fence, they'll keep coming if they can find work, and the gop chooses not to address that because inevitably they'll piss off either the chambers of commerce or the "deport em" groups.

Your point about the GOP not wanting to piss off the Chambers of COmmerce is true.

But addressing "work" won't piss off the "deport them" groups.
 
Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.
I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.

Well of course in olden days there was the Great Wall of China to repel invading hordes. And the Berlin Wall to keep the people in.

Fast forward to now. Just off the top of my head you have the Israeli West Bank barrier. 400 plus miles.

Saudi Arabia is going to build a 600 mile barrier from Jordan to Kuwait.

There's a couple for you. Not only to barriers make sense but one needs to up the money for deportation centers that can quickly process people for deportation.

Key word is quickly.
That's the problem, you and others on the right are still stuck in the 'olden days.'

And that you would advocate for the same policy here as Israel's policy in the West Bank is both sad and telling.

Fuck you. Israel's barrier has worked. Saudi Arabia is building a 600 mile barrier.

And no right wingers aren't crazy to want to protect the country's borders.

Left wingers are madmen who want to let anyone and everyone into the country without any checks or balances.

That's fucking insane. Sheer madness.
I don't object to a fence, so long as it's paid for without raising my taxes. However, even with a fence, they'll keep coming if they can find work, and the gop chooses not to address that because inevitably they'll piss off either the chambers of commerce or the "deport em" groups.

Valid point, BOTH the establishment parties have their reasons for siding with illegals from foreign countries vs the American citizens they were elected to serve and protect and vs the laws and constitution they swore to uphold and defend. That's why BOTH establishment parties Dem and Rep are freaking out over Trump whacking this hornets nest of an issue. The people are fed up with this, Trump knows this, that's why he's leading in the polls.
 
The amount of RWNJ stupid on this thread is nothing less than mind-numbing.

Are you yahoos even capable of reading anything before you scream like banshees?

Again, conservatism = laziness. It's a condition that takes over when you stop engaging, stop caring, and stop seeking solutions and just give up.
Exactly.

Lazy, disengaged, uncaring.

Build a wall!

Round 'em up!

Deport 'em all!

No thinking, no consideration, no reflection – just mindless knee-jerk responses from the right.


And meanwhile, US-Latinos who are legal citizens, who vote and who participate in oh so many ways in our culture, in our being, are watching this kind of rhetoric with horror.

And if Republicans think that this will have no repercussions, well then, think again.

Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" stuff was enough to get him down to 25% in the Latino vote. Imagine what this stuff from Trump will do to the eventual nominee come late Fall 2016.


Why should they be horrified?

Do they not want what is best for America?

Or do they want what is best for Mexico?

You certainly cannot have both on this issue.
You missed the point.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk
 
The amount of RWNJ stupid on this thread is nothing less than mind-numbing.

Are you yahoos even capable of reading anything before you scream like banshees?

Again, conservatism = laziness. It's a condition that takes over when you stop engaging, stop caring, and stop seeking solutions and just give up.


Yepp.

Even the most basic of math goes right over their heads.

Building a 1,954 mile long wall is going to take a helluva lot of time, manpower and energy. I don't doubt that it's physically possible to do. It's possible. But it will cost far more than people can imagine, it will take far longer to do than people can imagine and there is no way in hell that we or any other nation could force Mexico to pay for something that is not its own project. The rhetoric is almost borderline national-socialistic rhetoric as from 1933-1945. That really IS disturbing and I bet that Latinos all over the place within and outside of the USA are displeased at what they read.

And Trump did not mention the northern border to Canada at all.

I think the wall is money well spent myself. In this age of you being able to make a bomb in your country and drive it into mine, its stupid to have the border be so open. Anyone thinking we can round up 12 million people, have 12 million hearings, and get 12 million deportions is an idiot. And amazingly, a guy who was thought of as ultra liberal inside of 90 days ago, has hurled a few insults, got the rednecks behind him, insulted a few other people got more rednecks, proposed a plan that is 1/3 of the defense budget in size, totally unworkable, and he is being defended by the same people who didn't want to spend a dime to extend voting hours past 12 hours.

Again, if you were to have gone to Hollywood back in March and pitched such a thing, you would have gotten laughed out of the meeting because your thesis was too far fetched.
 
I doubt it would cost 400 billion to build the wall if the project was properly managed, and not bogged down with environmental bullshit and bureaucratic nonsense like the fence was.

Even at 10 million dollars a mile a 1933 mile long wall would be less than 20 billion dollars. Incidentally 10 million per mile is how much it costs to build a 4 lane highway through an urban area.


Usual horseshit from the right

USA
According to MI DOT
Quote:
A mile of freeway through an urban area costs approximately $39 million, while a mile of freeway through a rural area costs approximately $8 million.

Make the illegals dig a border trench and wall

and Make Mexico pay for it. they have no DESIRES to keep their own people in their shithole

Someone should dig a mote around your trailer park
It would keep her in her shit hole.
 
Illegals siphon off $4 billion dollars a year filing for fraudulent child tax credit refunds alone, that's just the tip of the iceberg. There's $40 billion over the next 10 years BOOM! Its estimated over 30% of illegals are participating in this scam already, and it gets worse every year.

Seems to me a wall would pay for itself in the short term.

150811165239-trump-shrug-gif-custom-1.gif
 
First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.

Here is Trump's immigration platform:

Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President

The main points that Trump says:

-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.

That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.

-make Mexico pay for the wall.

This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:

"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

So, let's do some math:

Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:

List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

971 million, according to Wikipedia.

Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:

Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent

7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..


And then there is this:

"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."

At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.

and this:

"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."

Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.

So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.


So, do the math:

1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose

vs.

400 BILLION to make this all happen.

Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?

There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.

That's it in a nutshell.

Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.

Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:

The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions

It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.

Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.

Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.

6 key states are also in the study.


So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.

And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.

My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.

Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?

1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.

2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.

3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.

4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.

My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.

That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.

Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.

Jeb just came out against the 14th amendment, so as far as latino (non Cuban) voters go, I doubt the gop is going to get more than 10% regardless of whom they run.

And these guys think they will have a chance in a General Election...

Too funny.
 
The amount of RWNJ stupid on this thread is nothing less than mind-numbing.

Are you yahoos even capable of reading anything before you scream like banshees?

Again, conservatism = laziness. It's a condition that takes over when you stop engaging, stop caring, and stop seeking solutions and just give up.


Yepp.

Even the most basic of math goes right over their heads.

Building a 1,954 mile long wall is going to take a helluva lot of time, manpower and energy. I don't doubt that it's physically possible to do. It's possible. But it will cost far more than people can imagine, it will take far longer to do than people can imagine and there is no way in hell that we or any other nation could force Mexico to pay for something that is not its own project. The rhetoric is almost borderline national-socialistic rhetoric as from 1933-1945. That really IS disturbing and I bet that Latinos all over the place within and outside of the USA are displeased at what they read.

And Trump did not mention the northern border to Canada at all.

I think the wall is money well spent myself. In this age of you being able to make a bomb in your country and drive it into mine, its stupid to have the border be so open. Anyone thinking we can round up 12 million people, have 12 million hearings, and get 12 million deportions is an idiot. And amazingly, a guy who was thought of as ultra liberal inside of 90 days ago, has hurled a few insults, got the rednecks behind him, insulted a few other people got more rednecks, proposed a plan that is 1/3 of the defense budget in size, totally unworkable, and he is being defended by the same people who didn't want to spend a dime to extend voting hours past 12 hours.

Again, if you were to have gone to Hollywood back in March and pitched such a thing, you would have gotten laughed out of the meeting because your thesis was too far fetched.


Bingo.
 
Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.
I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.
There was a wall built centuries ago that worked well for a long time. While not entirely impregnable from military attack, it did keep nomadic peoples out. You might of heard of it...the Great Wall of China.
I've seen and walk on that wall. Centuries ago? Good lord. This 2015 FCOL (for crying out loud).
 
First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.

Here is Trump's immigration platform:

Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President

The main points that Trump says:

-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.

That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.

-make Mexico pay for the wall.

This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:

"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

So, let's do some math:

Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:

List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

971 million, according to Wikipedia.

Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:

Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent

7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..


And then there is this:

"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."

At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.

and this:

"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."

Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.

So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.


So, do the math:

1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose

vs.

400 BILLION to make this all happen.

Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?

There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.

That's it in a nutshell.

Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.

Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:

The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions

It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.

Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.

Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.

6 key states are also in the study.


So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.

And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.

My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.

Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?

1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.

2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.

3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.

4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.

My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.

That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.

Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.

Jeb just came out against the 14th amendment, so as far as latino (non Cuban) voters go, I doubt the gop is going to get more than 10% regardless of whom they run.
One assumes you mean Bush opposes the Citizenship Clause of the 14th Amendment, as well as its jurisprudence – which in of itself is ignorant idiocy.

Of course, if Bush or any republican were to oppose the 14th Amendment in its entirety, one wouldn't be surprised.
 
TL;DR <<you need to work on that

Let me break it down for you stat with very few words. He'll do what the other cowards who have held office won't or never will do. Enforce the current laws and build a wall. That simple act (enforcing current laws) will have a tremendous impact on illegal immigration alone.

There it is. When he gets in office this is what you will see. Forget the other things. Can't work. But at least he'll be a leader and actually do something that will have an impact.
 
Hey think of the wall as an amazing infrastructure project!

btw other countries have built walls and fences to keep out illegals. This is not unheard of.
I traveled many countries and I have not seen a real wall to keep illegals out. Maybe 2 or 3. Can you name one or 2 such countries? Exclude North and s Korea.
There was a wall built centuries ago that worked well for a long time. While not entirely impregnable from military attack, it did keep nomadic peoples out. You might of heard of it...the Great Wall of China.
I've seen and walk on that wall. Centuries ago? Good lord. This 2015 FCOL (for crying out loud).
Your point is since it is old it can't work today. That is not logical.
 
because he is destroying the GOP
It deserves to be destroyed. They betrayed their constituents with becoming bedfellows with Dems. Then, as party of principles again, would rise as Phoenix from the ashes.
;

What GOP values were there in the first place?

The GOP bays at the Moon about "Not Wanting Government Involved in Health Care", then wants to pass a Constitutional Amendment Banning a Constitutionally Protected Medical procedure?

The GOP demands that "The Government Not Between a Doctor and Patient", but at the same time wants a law that ban contraception. A medicial decision reached between a doctor and his/her patient.

Or how about how the Republicans want to "Get to the bottom of Hilary Clinton's Private Email Server", Karl Rove used a Private Server during his time at the White House and did not shit about it.

Or how all those missing Hilary Clinton emails that the Republicans are so sure contain secure communication? Not one goddamn word, no fucking action taking on the Twenty-Two Million Missing Emails from the Bush43 White House.

Love those Republican Values.
 

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