Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
First, before anyone gets all too excited or gets mad and flames, just read.
Here is Trump's immigration platform:
Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President
The main points that Trump says:
-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.
That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.
-make Mexico pay for the wall.
This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:
"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."
So, let's do some math:
Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:
List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
971 million, according to Wikipedia.
Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:
Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent
7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..
And then there is this:
"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."
At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.
and this:
"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."
Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.
So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.
So, do the math:
1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose
vs.
400 BILLION to make this all happen.
Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?
There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.
That's it in a nutshell.
Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.
Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:
The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions
It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.
Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.
Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.
6 key states are also in the study.
So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.
And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.
My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.
Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?
1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.
2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.
3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.
4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.
My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.
That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.
Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.
Here is Trump's immigration platform:
Immigration Reform Donald J Trump for President
The main points that Trump says:
-there must be a wall on the Southern Border to Mexico.
That's 1,954 miles and includes 20 major railroad crossings between Mexico and the USA.
-make Mexico pay for the wall.
This is the part that is going to be hard to sell, no matter how you look at it, because the math simply does not add up. Trump says that under a Trump presidency:
"..Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."
So, let's do some math:
Amount of foreign aid to Mexico in 2014:
List of countries by foreign aid received - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
971 million, according to Wikipedia.
Cost of a potential almost 2,000 mile long wall:
Donald Trump says it is easy to build a wall between America and Mexico but is it - Americas - World - The Independent
7 BILLION has been spent on 600 miles of fencing. A wall would cost more, much, much more.
Until exact specifics are determined, assuming that a wall will be about 8 times more expensive to build than a fence, that's between 160-180 BILLION, just to build a wall, much less to maintain it..
And then there is this:
"Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally."
At an estimated cost of $11,000 to find, uproot and send an illegal aliens home, assuming 12 million illegal aliens, that comes to a price-tag of 132 BILLION dollars.
and this:
"End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reidwho said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants."
Assuming the court costs for many thousands upon thousands of cases of people who were here even before a constitutional amendments could even go through, because we are talking about changing the 14th amendment to the US Constitution, I bet we are looking at about a 100 BILLION dollar process here as well.
So, with a wall, expulsion of illegal aliens and the tort around children of illegal aliens, we are looking at about 400 BILLION USD.
So, do the math:
1 BILLION in foreign aid that Mexico would lose
vs.
400 BILLION to make this all happen.
Now, does anyone really think that Mexico would even pay a cent for any of this?
There is more at the Trump website to read about his plan for immigration reform, but those are the main points: build a huge wall, make Mexico pay for it, root up and eject all 11-12 million illegal immigrants AND their children, kill part or all of the 14th amendment.
That's it in a nutshell.
Ok, I take Trump at his word that that is what he means. And I am sure you will find a % of Americans who eat every bit of this up and love it.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, let's go to math about the Latino Vote.
Latino Decisions put out some interesting math, worth looking at:
The Latino Threshold to Win in 2016 Latino Decisions
It projects the Latino threshold that a Republican would need to achieve in order to win a national election, also broken down by key states.
Remember, Romney got only about 1/4 of the Latino vote in 2012, Obama got 71% according to exit polls and according to Latino Decisions, it was likely 74%.
Even assuming a very depressed Latino vote in 2016 (which I consider very unlikely) and the GOP at 60% of the White vote, then the GOP would still need about 43% of the Latino vote in 2016 to get over 50. If the Latino and Black vote really explode in 2016 as they did in 2012 and 2008, assuming current growth rates, the the GOP would need at least 47% of the Latino Vote to win.
6 key states are also in the study.
So, the point is clear. A look at coming Latino polling is going to tell us a lot about how close the GOP could even come to these benchmarks.
And mind you, before anyone blabs at the mouth and writes nonsense, I am not talking about illegal aliens. I am talking about US citizens of Latino descent, people who actually go out and vote.
My sense is that, with such an aggressive immigration platform that makes Mitt Romney's "self-deportation" comments look like wimpy child's play, we are going to see a lot of Latino polling in the next months.
Just to remind: the last WAPO Latino polling had Trump at 13% approval and 81% disapproval among Latinos, but the Latino subset of the poll was quite small and the MoE was about 8%, which is way too high for me. The last Univision poll, released 15 July 2015, just about one month ago, showed Clinton with a health +37 to +50 margin over Bush, Walker, Paul, Cruz, Rubio and "generic". Trump was not yet polled in this respect, but I bet he will soon. The poll also did breakdowns for the states of Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida - all critical states in the next presidential cycle, and the results are indeed eye-opening.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, putting aside personal feelings about Trump's proposal, what do we know for sure?
1.) Trump is the first one to put out a detailed proposal, one that has economic ramifications and will likely be addressed at the next GOP debate. In other words, among the GOPers, Trump again acts, forcing others to react.
2.) It is an agressive platform, no matter your leanings. As to whether it's doable or not, you all can scream at yourselves about this.
3.) Interesting that the Northern Wall to Canada is not mentioned at all.
4.) I am not going out on a limb when I remind that it's always about "intent versus perception". Indeed, Trump may even mean well with US-Latinos, but now remains to be see as to how they react.
My sense is that, once US-Latinos see the proposed attack on the 14th amendments to the US Constitution and the point blank accusations made against a sovereign state, namely, Mexico, that US-Latinos, citizens who vote, are going to react very, very negatively to this. And I mean: VERY.
That brings me to my last point: part of the crux of Trump's argument is that the country of Mexico, meaning, the Mexican government, is doing this to us vis-a-vis illegal aliens, very deliberately. That is some pretty aggressive saber rattling, to say the least.
Therefore, it will be very interesting to see what Latino polling in the next months says about this.
