Trafalgar (Best Pollling Company) Predicts a Trump Win With 275 Electoral Votes

[JimBowie1958]

Yep, they actually dig into the numbers and balance for shy voters.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Which brings us to the punchline, and what Trafalgar sees as the outcome on Nov 3. In a nutshell, based on Trafalgar swing state polls, Trumps wins with 275 electoral votes:​

 

[candycorn]

It may happen...We'll see what happens.

One thing, I think we all can agree on is that the election is much closer than these polls are indicating. And nobody knows how the polls translate into Electoral College votes.

As for your site, it puts Michigan into Trump's column. I think that may be a mistake. But it puts VA into Biden's column...I think that may be a mistake. I have friends over there and they are incredibly active politically--they are very sure Biden loses VA. Thats a net 3 vote swing for Biden. Not enough to deliver the White House if all of the other predictions hold true.

Trump is in trouble in Arizona. He may not lose it but it's not a shoo-in for the GOP any longer.

 

[Toro]

Of course, you don't look at just one single poll to see if a polling firm is any good. You look at as many as possible.

538.com has a database of something like 300 polling firms going back decades to analyze the accuracy and statistical bias of each polling firm. They give Trafalgar a C- rating, meaning they are in the bottom quartile of polls.

Pollster Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Another polling firm ZeroMoney - after reading their financial advice for years, that's how much money you would would have if you listened to them - cited was the Democracy Institute, whose polls also have Trump in the lead. It's true that the Democracy Institute predicted Trump would win in 2016, but they were still wrong in their methodology. They said Trump would win the national popular vote by 5% when in fact he lost it by 2%, way outside the margin error. That's the blind squirrel finding the occasional nut.

https://calvinayre.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/DI-USA-election-poll-2016.pdf

Finally, on Trump Shy Voters

The "Shy Trump Voter" Theory

First, I'm not making any predictions about the election whatsoever. I'm not saying Biden or Trump is going to win. Nor am I saying that that this theory isn't true. I just want to see if there is any empirical data to suggest that this "Shy Trump Voter" theory is statistically true. The...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[kyzr]

This link shows Trump winning, 274 to 263. But if one state flips, Biden could win easily. This one will be close.
After Nancy's new "25th Amendment" push to eject Biden if he wins, I can see why voters don't trust the democrats.

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

 

[JimBowie1958]

This link shows Trump winning, 274 to 263. But if one state flips, Biden could win easily. This one will be close.
After Nancy's new "25th Amendment" push to eject Biden if he wins, I can see why voters don't trust the democrats.

View attachment 399607

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

I like your map but:
1) I think Trump will take PA, AZ and MN,
2) I would not be surprised if this turned into a 1984 Reagan landslide.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Of course, you don't look at just one single poll to see if a polling firm is any good. You look at as many as possible.
538.com has a database of something like 300 polling firms going back decades to analyze the accuracy and statistical bias of each polling firm. They give Trafalgar a C- rating, meaning they are in the bottom quartile of pol

538 ratees Marist and Qunipiac as more accurate than Traffalgar.

And yet on the few key swing states that all three did polls on Trafalgar got it right, not the other two.

If you are not a partisan shill, I shouldnt have to explain anything any further to you.

 

[Toro]

If you are not a partisan shill, I shouldnt have to explain anything any further to you.

I'm glad you don't because apparently you don't know statistics very well.

Golfer A: Four years ago shot a double-birdie on a par 5, then shot two more birdies in a row. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 20.
Golfer B: Played that game with golfer A four years ago and lost, including shooting four bogies. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 10.

Jim's conclusion: Golfer A is a better than golfer B.

Outstanding.

 

[JimBowie1958]

If you are not a partisan shill, I shouldnt have to explain anything any further to you.

I'm glad you don't because apparently you don't know statistics very well.

Golfer A: Four years ago shot a double-birdie on a par 5, then shot two more birdies in a row. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 20.
Golfer B: Played that game with golfer A four years ago and lost, including shooting four bogies. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 10.

Jim's conclusion: Golfer A is a better than golfer B.

Outstanding.

I understand that a person or organization can do well enough on typical normal situations, then totally F it up when the situation is critical.

Why did Marist and Quinipiac get it SO wrong in two key swing states while Traffalgar nailed it if they are so much better than Traffalgar.

Answer: 538 is a bullshit Democrat run operation and they merely reinforce the gas lighting the Dems are trying to spin on the American people is why.

 

[kyzr]

This link shows Trump winning, 274 to 263. But if one state flips, Biden could win easily. This one will be close.
After Nancy's new "25th Amendment" push to eject Biden if he wins, I can see why voters don't trust the democrats.

View attachment 399607

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election

www.270towin.com

I like your map but:
1) I think Trump will take PA, AZ and MN,
2) I would not be surprised if this turned into a 1984 Reagan landslide.

1. Its not my map, that's the "270 to win" map
2. I hope you're right, but Trump needs to get more women's votes to run the table.

 

[Oldestyle]

If you are not a partisan shill, I shouldnt have to explain anything any further to you.

I'm glad you don't because apparently you don't know statistics very well.

Golfer A: Four years ago shot a double-birdie on a par 5, then shot two more birdies in a row. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 20.
Golfer B: Played that game with golfer A four years ago and lost, including shooting four bogies. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 10.

Jim's conclusion: Golfer A is a better than golfer B.

Outstanding.

As a golf professional I'd like to point out that handicaps are wonderful things...but they don't mean a golfer with a lower handicap will necessarily beat one with a higher handicap! Some people simply can't beat other individuals. If liberals are Golfer B...and Trump is Golfer A...then Golfer B needs to demonstrate that they have the GAME to beat Golfer A! Until they do...that handicap means diddly!

 

[Oddball]

Of course, you don't look at just one single poll to see if a polling firm is any good. You look at as many as possible.

538.com has a database of something like 300 polling firms going back decades to analyze the accuracy and statistical bias of each polling firm. They give Trafalgar a C- rating, meaning they are in the bottom quartile of polls.

View attachment 399596

Pollster Ratings

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Another polling firm ZeroMoney - after reading their financial advice for years, that's how much money you would would have if you listened to them - cited was the Democracy Institute, whose polls also have Trump in the lead. It's true that the Democracy Institute predicted Trump would win in 2016, but they were still wrong in their methodology. They said Trump would win the national popular vote by 5% when in fact he lost it by 2%, way outside the margin error. That's the blind squirrel finding the occasional nut.

https://calvinayre.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/DI-USA-election-poll-2016.pdf

Finally, on Trump Shy Voters

The "Shy Trump Voter" Theory

First, I'm not making any predictions about the election whatsoever. I'm not saying Biden or Trump is going to win. Nor am I saying that that this theory isn't true. I just want to see if there is any empirical data to suggest that this "Shy Trump Voter" theory is statistically true. The...

www.usmessageboard.com

This the same FiveThirtyEight that gave Hillary a 90% chance of winning?

BTW, a study by a bunch of PhDs and Pew confirmed the existence of "shy voters".....@ 5:00.

 

[kyzr]

If you are not a partisan shill, I shouldnt have to explain anything any further to you.

I'm glad you don't because apparently you don't know statistics very well.

Golfer A: Four years ago shot a double-birdie on a par 5, then shot two more birdies in a row. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 20.
Golfer B: Played that game with golfer A four years ago and lost, including shooting four bogies. Has been playing since. Handicap is now 10.

Jim's conclusion: Golfer A is a better than golfer B.

Outstanding.

As a golf professional I'd like to point out that handicaps are wonderful things...but they don't mean a golfer with a lower handicap will necessarily beat one with a higher handicap! Some people simply can't beat other individuals. If liberals are Golfer B...and Trump is Golfer A...then Golfer B needs to demonstrate that they have the GAME to beat Golfer A! Until they do...that handicap means diddly!

You don't know how that "handicap" is assigned.
In Philadelphia the cheaters make the handicap so high that they are guaranteed to win no matter what the pro does.
That's the problem. Massive cheating.