The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Had you read the article, you would see that it's because Iceland has done extensive testing of its people.

What difference do you think using Italy would have made?

They've tested about 3.5%. This has been gone over in the thread, catch up.

They test everyone, not just people who show symptoms. That's how you get a more accurate mortality rate.

Are you just pretending to be too stupid to understand that?

Again, fucking moron, 5% is not 100%.

Fucking moron, the discussion has progressed far beyond that issue. Try catching up before you vent your spleen so you won't look like such a dumbass.

Whoops! Too late!

 

[Muhammed]

The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.

They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.

Could you provide a source for that info so that we can scrutinize it?

Just repeating the corona virus press conferences held by the President and his team.

Sure you are

That's why you cannot provide a source, jackass.

 

[bripat9643]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.

As I said I understand your argument but I don't see any evidence that massive testing lowers the mortality rate. It sounds like it should, but in the United States when we finally got our shit together and started testing (not that we are doing enough yet 2 months later) that the mortality rate in this country has gone up, not down. I hope that trajectory changes and I'm not making a prediction one way or another but it flies in your face that the virus is "140 times smaller" than it is. How does Dan the Squirrel man account for a lack of healthcare that New York is experiencing and soon other cities and states will?

What is the general health of Icelanders and South Koreans compared to United States citizens? According to the link below Iceland and South Korea are ranked 10th and 11th respectively in Life Expectancy. The United States is 46th. So you're comparing two relatively healthy countries to one that isn't so much. For example, how is your diabetes going to play a role if/when you get COVID-19?

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2024) - Worldometer

List of countries and dependencies in the world ranked by life expectancy at birth, both sexes, males and females. World Population Life Expectancy with historical chart

www.worldometers.info

No, that isn't my argument. I don't care whether it lowers the mortality rate or not. What I care about is getting an accurate mortality rate because the phony mortality rates you and the media are using are intended to generate hysteria. Testing only people who show symptoms does not give an accurate mortality rate. Any figure based on such a method is just so much horseshit. But you know this. You're happy to push horseshit if it advances your agenda. An accurate mortality rate requires an accurate figure for the number of people who are actually infected. That's a far larger number than the one you get by testing only the people who are showing symptoms.

I keep trying to pound that into your head, but you're too stupid to get it. Or perhaps you know you're pushing bullshit and just ignoring what I say. It sure seems like you ignore whatever you are told if it disagrees with your narrative.

 

[Faun]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.

He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?

Had you read the article, you would see that it's because Iceland has done extensive testing of its people.

What difference do you think using Italy would have made?

They've tested about 3.5%. This has been gone over in the thread, catch up.

They test everyone, not just people who show symptoms. That's how you get a more accurate mortality rate.

Are you just pretending to be too stupid to understand that?

Again, fucking moron, 5% is not 100%.

Fucking moron, the discussion has progressed far beyond that issue. Try catching up before you vent your spleen so you won't look like such a dumbass.

Whoops! Too late!

Oh? Is there a statute of limitations on pointing out what a fucking moron you are? That's twice (so far) I've corrected your retarded claim that they tested "everyone" in Iceland because you didn't learn the first time.

 

[HappyJoy]

Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.

Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's

No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.

You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.

What have I posted that isn't a fact?

The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.

You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.

For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down​

​

As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.​

​

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .​

​

They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.​

As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming. ​

Wrong, asshole:

https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind​

​

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.​

248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?

You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?

No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?

You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.

As I said I understand your argument but I don't see any evidence that massive testing lowers the mortality rate. It sounds like it should, but in the United States when we finally got our shit together and started testing (not that we are doing enough yet 2 months later) that the mortality rate in this country has gone up, not down. I hope that trajectory changes and I'm not making a prediction one way or another but it flies in your face that the virus is "140 times smaller" than it is. How does Dan the Squirrel man account for a lack of healthcare that New York is experiencing and soon other cities and states will?

What is the general health of Icelanders and South Koreans compared to United States citizens? According to the link below Iceland and South Korea are ranked 10th and 11th respectively in Life Expectancy. The United States is 46th. So you're comparing two relatively healthy countries to one that isn't so much. For example, how is your diabetes going to play a role if/when you get COVID-19?

Life Expectancy by Country and in the World (2024) - Worldometer

List of countries and dependencies in the world ranked by life expectancy at birth, both sexes, males and females. World Population Life Expectancy with historical chart

www.worldometers.info

No, that isn't my argument. I don't care whether it lowers the mortality rate or not. What I care about is getting an accurate mortality rate because the phony mortality rates you and the media are using are intended to generate hysteria. Testing only people who show symptoms does not give an accurate mortality rate. Any figure based on such a method is just so much horseshit. But you know this. You're happy to push horseshit if it advances your agenda. An accurate mortality rate requires an accurate figure for the number of people who are actually infected. That's a far larger number than the one you get by testing only the people who are showing symptoms.

I keep trying to pound that into your head, but you're too stupid to get it. Or perhaps you know you're pushing bullshit and just ignoring what I say. It sure seems like you ignore whatever you are told if it disagrees with your narrative.

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

And yes, discussing the differences between South Korea, Iceland and the United States is relevant barbecue you brought them up. Then when you have no answers about how COVID-19 will play in countries with healthier citizens you don't want to talk about them anymore.

 

[Dana7360]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You need better sources of information.

Yesterday ONE THOUSAND people died from the virus.

It's twice the record number of 500 people dying in one day from the other 2 most deadly illnesses.

Watch out for words like "may." That's a very good indication that what the person is reporting probably isn't true. Like now with your post.

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

 

[flacaltenn]

Based on what? It's not going to take much to overwhelm many small towns that already have stretched resources on a good day. Other major cities are already reporting shortages.

Those small towns ALREADY were so stressed from the normal Healthcare debacle that they EXPORT all their critical cases to the surrounding neighborhood.. Under marketplace plans, TN already LOST about 20 rural hospitals because they couldn't afford to be on the Marketplace plans..

SO -- Around "Hillbilly Hollywood" they transport or life flight MOST of their complex cases already.. And there IS capacity to do that normally. Nashville for instance hasn't had a lot of cases.. And very few deaths. ALSO Nat guard is providing medical teams for "relieving" the current doctors of fatigue or overload.

 

[flacaltenn]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

 

[Care4all]

The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.

They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.

Could you provide a source for that info so that we can scrutinize it?

Just repeating the corona virus press conferences held by the President and his team.

Sure you are

That's why you cannot provide a source, jackass.

I told you where I heard it from, I watch the President and team daily, at their corona virus press conferences.....

I'm certain you can find them on YouTube and watch them if you want to inform yourself.

 

[bripat9643]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You need better sources of information.

Yesterday ONE THOUSAND people died from the virus.

It's twice the record number of 500 people dying in one day from the other 2 most deadly illnesses.

Watch out for words like "may." That's a very good indication that what the person is reporting probably isn't true. Like now with your post.

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

The word "may" is part of every accusation made against Trump, moron.

 

[HappyJoy]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

You're right. Where we are testing the most in New York the current mortality rate is 2.5%.

Yes the number is fluid and I expect and hope that rate to go down but just because you test more does not automatically mean the mortality rate goes down as there are other fractures to consider such as the health of the populace and availability to healthcare being two. So, just because we test more, other factors could mitigate a reduction in the rate.

EDIT: Also, I've heard that in Italy for example many elderly have died in their own homes and they haven't all been accounted for. It's another example that you can't just look at the rate of death for this disease and just assume it's going to go down. As said above, it most likely will and I hope it does but I wouldn't make assumptions to that case just to defend the president (which is the purpose of this thread).

 

[Dana7360]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You need better sources of information.

Yesterday ONE THOUSAND people died from the virus.

It's twice the record number of 500 people dying in one day from the other 2 most deadly illnesses.

Watch out for words like "may." That's a very good indication that what the person is reporting probably isn't true. Like now with your post.

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

The word "may" is part of every accusation made against Trump, moron.

That's the best you have?

Why not just admit that whoever wrote your article is wrong?

Why are you using incorrect information to try to excuse this pandemic and the hundreds of thousands trump says will die from it?

Seems to me it's you who is the moron. If you can't even get something that is basically common knowledge correct, you are the moron.

And way too lazy to do a simple search to find out if what you are posting is correct.

 

[HappyJoy]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You need better sources of information.

Yesterday ONE THOUSAND people died from the virus.

It's twice the record number of 500 people dying in one day from the other 2 most deadly illnesses.

Watch out for words like "may." That's a very good indication that what the person is reporting probably isn't true. Like now with your post.

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

The word "may" is part of every accusation made against Trump, moron.

That's the best you have?

Why not just admit that whoever wrote your article is wrong?

Why are you using incorrect information to try to excuse this pandemic and the hundreds of thousands trump says will die from it?

Seems to me it's you who is the moron. If you can't even get something that is basically common knowledge correct, you are the moron.

And way too lazy to do a simple search to find out if what you are posting is correct.

They're not only defending Trump, they're defending Trump from a week or two ago and dangerously ignoring him today as he slowly aligns with people who know what they are talking about.

That whole 5th Ave. murder question has been answered, they'll twist themselves in knots to defend this guy to the very end.

 

[bripat9643]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

You're right. Where we are testing the most in New York the current mortality rate is 2.5%.

Yes the number is fluid and I expect and hope that rate to go down but just because you test more does not automatically mean the mortality rate goes down as there are other fractures to consider such as the health of the populace and availability to healthcare being two. So, just because we test more, other factors could mitigate a reduction in the rate.

EDIT: Also, I've heard that in Italy for example many elderly have died in their own homes and they haven't all been accounted for. It's another example that you can't just look at the rate of death for this disease and just assume it's going to go down. As said above, it most likely will and I hope it does but I wouldn't make assumptions to that case just to defend the president (which is the purpose of this thread).

That's not the mortality rate for all people who are infected. It's the mortal only for people who are are showing symptoms and have been tested.

 

[bripat9643]

This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

https://danfromsquirrelhill.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/the-real-denominator/​

​

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.​

​

The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.​

​

But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.​

​

As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)​

​

Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%​

​

Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.​

​

The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)​

​

So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.​

​

Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.​

​

And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%​

​

You need better sources of information.

Yesterday ONE THOUSAND people died from the virus.

It's twice the record number of 500 people dying in one day from the other 2 most deadly illnesses.

Watch out for words like "may." That's a very good indication that what the person is reporting probably isn't true. Like now with your post.

More than 1,000 in US die in a single day from coronavirus, doubling the worst daily death toll of the flu

The word "may" is part of every accusation made against Trump, moron.

That's the best you have?

Why not just admit that whoever wrote your article is wrong?

Why are you using incorrect information to try to excuse this pandemic and the hundreds of thousands trump says will die from it?

Seems to me it's you who is the moron. If you can't even get something that is basically common knowledge correct, you are the moron.

And way too lazy to do a simple search to find out if what you are posting is correct.

Should I also "admit" 1 + 1 = 3?

 

[Muhammed]

The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.

They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.

Could you provide a source for that info so that we can scrutinize it?

Just repeating the corona virus press conferences held by the President and his team.

Sure you are

That's why you cannot provide a source, jackass.

I told you where I heard it from, I watch the President and team daily, at their corona virus press conferences.....

I'm certain you can find them on YouTube and watch them if you want to inform yourself.

Could you provide a link to that YouTube video?

 

[HappyJoy]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

You're right. Where we are testing the most in New York the current mortality rate is 2.5%.

Yes the number is fluid and I expect and hope that rate to go down but just because you test more does not automatically mean the mortality rate goes down as there are other fractures to consider such as the health of the populace and availability to healthcare being two. So, just because we test more, other factors could mitigate a reduction in the rate.

EDIT: Also, I've heard that in Italy for example many elderly have died in their own homes and they haven't all been accounted for. It's another example that you can't just look at the rate of death for this disease and just assume it's going to go down. As said above, it most likely will and I hope it does but I wouldn't make assumptions to that case just to defend the president (which is the purpose of this thread).

That's not the mortality rate for all people who are infected. It's the mortal only for people who are are showing symptoms and have been tested.

Did somebody say otherwise?

As more are tested the mortality rate has been going up. New York which has tested more `people by far than any other state has a 2.5% mortality rate.

Are you prepared for where the numbers are going?

 

[bripat9643]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

You're right. Where we are testing the most in New York the current mortality rate is 2.5%.

Yes the number is fluid and I expect and hope that rate to go down but just because you test more does not automatically mean the mortality rate goes down as there are other fractures to consider such as the health of the populace and availability to healthcare being two. So, just because we test more, other factors could mitigate a reduction in the rate.

EDIT: Also, I've heard that in Italy for example many elderly have died in their own homes and they haven't all been accounted for. It's another example that you can't just look at the rate of death for this disease and just assume it's going to go down. As said above, it most likely will and I hope it does but I wouldn't make assumptions to that case just to defend the president (which is the purpose of this thread).

That's not the mortality rate for all people who are infected. It's the mortal only for people who are are showing symptoms and have been tested.

Did somebody say otherwise?

As more are tested the mortality rate has been going up. New York which has tested more `people by far than any other state has a 2.5% mortality rate.

Are you prepared for where the numbers are going?

You've been saying it for about a week now, moron. You just said it again. New York is still testing only the people who show symptoms. No matter how many times I explain it you refuse to get it. I think you're congenitally stupid.

 

[HappyJoy]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

You're right. Where we are testing the most in New York the current mortality rate is 2.5%.

Yes the number is fluid and I expect and hope that rate to go down but just because you test more does not automatically mean the mortality rate goes down as there are other fractures to consider such as the health of the populace and availability to healthcare being two. So, just because we test more, other factors could mitigate a reduction in the rate.

EDIT: Also, I've heard that in Italy for example many elderly have died in their own homes and they haven't all been accounted for. It's another example that you can't just look at the rate of death for this disease and just assume it's going to go down. As said above, it most likely will and I hope it does but I wouldn't make assumptions to that case just to defend the president (which is the purpose of this thread).

That's not the mortality rate for all people who are infected. It's the mortal only for people who are are showing symptoms and have been tested.

Did somebody say otherwise?

As more are tested the mortality rate has been going up. New York which has tested more `people by far than any other state has a 2.5% mortality rate.

Are you prepared for where the numbers are going?

You've been saying it for about a week now, moron. You just said it again. New York is still testing only the people who show symptoms. No matter how many times I explain it you refuse to get it. I think you're congenitally stupid.

I'd like to remind you again that Iceland has only tested 1/2 a percent.

 

[bripat9643]

We're doing more testing now than ever before and the mortality rate is going up. It's now over 2% in the United States.

Not really.. Certainly not for the entire country.. And the number is fluid because of statistical uncertainty in any one LOCAL area..

You're right. Where we are testing the most in New York the current mortality rate is 2.5%.

Yes the number is fluid and I expect and hope that rate to go down but just because you test more does not automatically mean the mortality rate goes down as there are other fractures to consider such as the health of the populace and availability to healthcare being two. So, just because we test more, other factors could mitigate a reduction in the rate.

EDIT: Also, I've heard that in Italy for example many elderly have died in their own homes and they haven't all been accounted for. It's another example that you can't just look at the rate of death for this disease and just assume it's going to go down. As said above, it most likely will and I hope it does but I wouldn't make assumptions to that case just to defend the president (which is the purpose of this thread).

That's not the mortality rate for all people who are infected. It's the mortal only for people who are are showing symptoms and have been tested.

Did somebody say otherwise?

As more are tested the mortality rate has been going up. New York which has tested more `people by far than any other state has a 2.5% mortality rate.

Are you prepared for where the numbers are going?

You've been saying it for about a week now, moron. You just said it again. New York is still testing only the people who show symptoms. No matter how many times I explain it you refuse to get it. I think you're congenitally stupid.

I'd like to remind you again that Iceland has only tested 1/2 a percent.

I'd like to remind you that they test everyone who has been exposed to the virus, and anyone who asks for a test. They don't test just those who are showing symptoms. All your numbers are based on the later policy. They don't show the mortality rate for everyone infected.

You keep repeating the same idiocies. Inability to learn is an indication of brain damage.