The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

HappyJoy

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Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.
Cool. Does it carry more weight if it's coming from epidemiology experts including Dr. Fauci, and published in the New England Journal of Medicine?


A fatality rate like that of "a severe influenza... considerably less than 1%" -- Dr. Fauci's words, not Danfromsquirrelhill's
No, it doesn't carry any more weight. Facts are facts.
You should maybe have your chubby little fingers post facts for a change.
What have I posted that isn't a fact?
The premise of this thread that by looking at Iceland alone and ignoring the rest of the world we can deduce the mortality rate.
You get a more accurate number than going by figures where not all the people who have the disease have been tested. That means the rest of the world, dumbass.
For the record, South Korea also did extensive testing, and had something like a .77% mortality rate.
As of this week, South Korea had just over 9,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, which puts it among the top 10 countries for total cases. But South Korea has another distinction: Health experts are noting that recently the nation has managed to significantly slow the number of new cases. And the country appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed elsewhere in the world.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
They've used testing aggressively to identify cases — not only testing people who are so sick that they're hospitalized but also mild cases and even suspected cases. They've quarantined tens of thousands of people who may have been exposed to confirmed cases.
As of March 17th South Korea tested about 5200 out of a million or .52%.


In the meantime the United States has tested more yet the mortality rate has increased from about 1.3% in early March to around 2% now. Pretty sure the overall percentage will go down but more testing hasn't made that happen so far.

EDIT: COVID-19 Mortality Rate: A Grim Update | National Review

According to the Worldometer statistics (which are consistent with those compiled by Johns Hopkins University), the U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China — see Jim Geraghty’s nonpareil reporting on that, here and here, as well as our Zachary Evans’s report this morning). Nevertheless, the uptick is alarming.
Wrong, asshole:

As of Saturday, South Korea had tested more than 248,000 people and identified 8,086 cases.
248,000 people. The population is about 51.47 million. That's less than .5% of the population.

At what point do you not question your own intelligence?
You claimed 5000 people were tested. Why should we believe anything else you say about Korea?
No, 5,200 per million. Man, you are so dumb, did you not understand the source?
You are correct, I overlooked the qualifier. However, that doesn't matter. What matters is that S. Korea doesn't limit its testing only to people who show symptoms. It tests everyone that may have been exposed to the virus or who wants a test. That means it uncovers a lot of people wouldn't be detected by the U.S testing policy. You don't seem to get that.
As I said I understand your argument but I don't see any evidence that massive testing lowers the mortality rate. It sounds like it should, but in the United States when we finally got our shit together and started testing (not that we are doing enough yet 2 months later) that the mortality rate in this country has gone up, not down. I hope that trajectory changes and I'm not making a prediction one way or another but it flies in your face that the virus is "140 times smaller" than it is. How does Dan the Squirrel man account for a lack of healthcare that New York is experiencing and soon other cities and states will?

What is the general health of Icelanders and South Koreans compared to United States citizens? According to the link below Iceland and South Korea are ranked 10th and 11th respectively in Life Expectancy. The United States is 46th. So you're comparing two relatively healthy countries to one that isn't so much. For example, how is your diabetes going to play a role if/when you get COVID-19?

The reason why the mortality rate has gone up in the U.S. in spite of more testing is our healthcare system is overwhelmed, and it’s only going to get worse.
I agree, that could be at least in part the reason why. Now please explain to Bripat why simply just looking at mortality rates in Iceland alone isn't really indicative of our own COVID-19 mortality rate.
why only Italy?
Why only Italy what?
 

flacaltenn

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
 

flacaltenn

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I know this would be lethal to about 40% of you -- but if you're NOT WATCHING the 2 or 3 Daily Briefings out of WH -- you'll NEVER be informed...

Can't imagine that politics would PREVENT YOU from watching the BEST source of news about the COVID response and how these numbers are arrived at...

But if you want to put politics AHEAD of actual knowledge and PERSONAL preparedness and be a victim of 3rd class news and politically filtered analysis -- that's your burden -- not mine...
 

Sun Devil 92

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
If you take total cases, remove deaths and recovered, you have about 700,000 cases globally.

If you add New York and New Jersey active cases....you have 100,000 activer cases.

1/7th of active cases globally....are in NY+NJ
 

Sun Devil 92

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Plenty of people would be dying NOW. Even if there were no virus.
I'm just thinking to myself "Has anybody said anything more stupid on this thread." I'm thinking "no, not yet".
TC is not wrong.

In the time it's taken us to reach 5,000 deaths.....about 500,000 people have died in the U.S. from other causes.

You may not like it, but it is the case.

It may not be relevant, but it is the case.
 

flacaltenn

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
If you take total cases, remove deaths and recovered, you have about 700,000 cases globally.

If you add New York and New Jersey active cases....you have 100,000 activer cases.

1/7th of active cases globally....are in NY+NJ
Hey man.. That's only because the data out of China is ridiculous on its face... I WAS giving them some benefit of the doubt. But NOW -- they are just not owning up the tragedy in their country -- YET....
 

Sun Devil 92

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
If you take total cases, remove deaths and recovered, you have about 700,000 cases globally.

If you add New York and New Jersey active cases....you have 100,000 activer cases.

1/7th of active cases globally....are in NY+NJ
Hey man.. That's only because the data out of China is ridiculous on its face... I WAS giving them some benefit of the doubt. But NOW -- they are just not owning up the tragedy in their country -- YET....
Not sure it would look different if the Chinese data is removed. They show very few active cases.

I have no doubt people are dying by the hundreds in N. Korea.
 

flacaltenn

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
If you take total cases, remove deaths and recovered, you have about 700,000 cases globally.

If you add New York and New Jersey active cases....you have 100,000 activer cases.

1/7th of active cases globally....are in NY+NJ
Hey man.. That's only because the data out of China is ridiculous on its face... I WAS giving them some benefit of the doubt. But NOW -- they are just not owning up the tragedy in their country -- YET....
Not sure it would look different if the Chinese data is removed. They show very few active cases.

I have no doubt people are dying by the hundreds in N. Korea.
They probably haven't cleared the bodies out of Wuhan yet.. Big metro area.. Big tyrannical govt CONFINED them to quarters. Shut down other sources of information.. Even the folks in Wuhan and the province probably don't know status of family/friends..

Ejecting the Western media and shutting down their social media doesn't build confidence in their reporting.. Can't IMAGINE that their mortality is about 3000... Got to be 20 or 40 times HIGHER than that..

HOWEVER -- It's just NOT that province.. And we know that that MANY of the factories are STILL OPEN in places that had just started to bubble up infections.. So I'm pretty sure our Intel Community is making some better guesses on their COVID stats than anyone else..
 

flacaltenn

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Question is in China -- are they gonna count the fatalities that occurred because folks ran out meds or care for the elderly? And stuff like that..

It's like the way we count people falling off ladders PREPARING for hurricanes as hurricane victims.
 

Sun Devil 92

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
If you take total cases, remove deaths and recovered, you have about 700,000 cases globally.

If you add New York and New Jersey active cases....you have 100,000 activer cases.

1/7th of active cases globally....are in NY+NJ
Hey man.. That's only because the data out of China is ridiculous on its face... I WAS giving them some benefit of the doubt. But NOW -- they are just not owning up the tragedy in their country -- YET....
Not sure it would look different if the Chinese data is removed. They show very few active cases.

I have no doubt people are dying by the hundreds in N. Korea.
They probably haven't cleared the bodies out of Wuhan yet.. Big metro area.. Big tyrannical govt CONFINED them to quarters. Shut down other sources of information.. Even the folks in Wuhan and the province probably don't know status of family/friends..

Ejecting the Western media and shutting down their social media doesn't build confidence in their reporting.. Can't IMAGINE that their mortality is about 3000... Got to be 20 or 40 times HIGHER than that..

HOWEVER -- It's just NOT that province.. And we know that that MANY of the factories are STILL OPEN in places that had just started to bubble up infections.. So I'm pretty sure our Intel Community is making some better guesses on their COVID stats than anyone else..
So, just clear them out of the analysis.

They are not part of the model anyway if they are not social distancing.

Their data would throw off the curves.
 

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
New Orleans ought to be a good sample. They know how many were there. How many are sick . How many left and were sick quickly? Not really hard.?
 

WEATHER53

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Plenty of people would be dying NOW. Even if there were no virus.
I'm just thinking to myself "Has anybody said anything more stupid on this thread." I'm thinking "no, not yet".
TC is not wrong.

In the time it's taken us to reach 5,000 deaths.....about 500,000 people have died in the U.S. from other causes.

You may not like it, but it is the case.

It may not be relevant, but it is the case.
It’s testimony to what it’s like to live on planet earth and the deadly things that can be out there
 

HappyJoy

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..
It's a model based prediction utilizing more data than from a single country. Several...really all the states' numbers are increasing. Florida, Louisiana, California (though the bay area thanks to early isolation is looking better) Massachusetts, Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania are on the cusp of breaking wide open and are all now finding more than 1k cases per day. Since this thread started there have been about 52k more cases. Tomorrow we'll be close to 80k.

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...
Based on what? It's not going to take much to overwhelm many small towns that already have stretched resources on a good day. Other major cities are already reporting shortages.

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
Man, are you in for surprises. Are you bummed out Easter? I bet you didn't see that coming.
 

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TC is not wrong.

In the time it's taken us to reach 5,000 deaths.....about 500,000 people have died in the U.S. from other causes.

You may not like it, but it is the case.

It may not be relevant, but it is the case.
so if you could 'catch' cancer by coughing on somebody you would be okay with that? Or diabetes? Or hypertension? Or heart disease? Or_________ fill in disease here.

Don't get me wrong. I think there has been a massive over reaction. However, as with any of these things you have to play to the lowest common denominator - ie the dumbest person in the room. And for a while there, it has been Donald Trump.
 

HappyJoy

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Plenty of people would be dying NOW. Even if there were no virus.
I'm just thinking to myself "Has anybody said anything more stupid on this thread." I'm thinking "no, not yet".
TC is not wrong.

In the time it's taken us to reach 5,000 deaths.....about 500,000 people have died in the U.S. from other causes.

You may not like it, but it is the case.

It may not be relevant, but it is the case.

Yet hospitals aren't overwhelmed when we're not having a pandemic. Really lame logic, "people are already dying anyway, enjoy the plague" (paraphrasing)
 

HappyJoy

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This is great thread to keep alive.. Because it's the most asked question that has a bearing on the worried and scared population..

Just to keep it going, there is the Stanford Study that came out about 10 days ago, but 2 more studies I've read talking about "SLIGHTLY" lower "death rates"...

Too many of these papers are based on VERY questionable China data.. And we would EXPECT a higher death rate in China just from the shorter time they had to prepare protocols and procedures for triage. Here are 2 of them besides the Stanford study..



And to link what I said above about CALCULATING a death rate -- here's a link... BTW -- the PRESS and many in leadership are STILL not doing it correctly in MANY cases of bad news...


However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died.

That last link arrived at a HIGHER death rate than CDC, but was "reading into" the very questionable data from China "official reporting"...
I don't think anyone recently has said the mortality rate is going to end up being 3.5%. Not sure if you are aware or not but that100k-240k fatality range is actually based on less than 1%.

Whether or not it means anything now or later the current number of deaths is over 5% globally of those infected.
Not sure if YOU understand that Dr Fauci and Birx BOTH explained today that the 100K to 240K RANGE is predicated on GUESSES about WHERE the virus hit... So FAR, NY metro area is the ONLY region (other than the morons that let Mardi Gras go on in N'Orleans) that has been hit..

#deaths DOES go up with #infections... But the RATE of death is a measure of the disease LETHALITY.. And what matters to the death rate is the STRESS put on local Medical responses. You won't SEE that in the large majority of America...

So to GET that guesstimate accurately -- you'd have to know where EXACTLY all the FUTURE "bubbles" occur... And NOBODY knows that right now...
New Orleans ought to be a good sample. They know how many were there. How many are sick . How many left and were sick quickly? Not really hard.?
They know where all the sick people are after flying out of MSY?
 

Care4all

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The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.

They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.
Could you provide a source for that info so that we can scrutinize it?
Just repeating the corona virus press conferences held by the President and his team.
 

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