The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

g5000

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The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported
Gosh, if only there was a test and everybody who wants a test could get a test. Then we wouldn't have to guess.

If only we had a President who didn't make shit up, put it in your head, and then you excrete that shit out of your mouth in its pure and unfiltered form.

"Let's pretend there are forty-...no...sixty million people infected!"
 
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bripat9643

bripat9643

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The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported
Gosh, if only there was a test and everybody who wants a test could get a test. Then we wouldn't have to guess.

If only we had a President who didn't make shit up, put it in your head, and then you excrete that shit out of your mouth in its pure and unfiltered form.
You can't just pretend your mortality rate is accurate because you don't have the necessary evidence, shit for brains.

You're attack on Trump only shows that you know you're a dumbass.
 

HappyJoy

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I'm going to deposit this here:


I don't find this surprising. Are people who do not show signs of the virus never tested? Sure, because of a shortage of tests we aren't able to do this and accurately track the virus.

Across the globe to include the United States there are concerns that people have died from COVID-19 however those deaths have not yet been counted. In Spain for example deaths in retirement homes haven't been counted and in Italy they are findng people who have passed away at home.

I'm pretty sure this is under consideration with projection models and why we have a current prediction that has 100k+ variable outcome. Understanding that even then this prediction isn't meant to be the finally count for COVID-19, only the current go around.
 

Baron

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
Covid-19 is a Fake epidemic invented by NWO for destroying of goyim states.
 

MindWars

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%

LOL I knew a little kid that looked exactly like the kid in your avatar his name was Butch LOL>
 

Fort Fun Indiana

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As a scientist/engineer I evaluate ESTIMATES in a very calm analytical way.. The numbers the MEDIA want to run with are WORST CASE ESTIMATES..
Bullshit. Give examples. The real hoax here is the goobers parroting the media hype talking point.
 

Fort Fun Indiana

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As a scientist/engineer I evaluate ESTIMATES in a very calm analytical way.. The numbers the MEDIA want to run with are WORST CASE ESTIMATES..
Bullshit. Give examples. The real hoax here is the goobers parroting the media hype talking point.
That would be you, dumbass.
That doesn't make sense, crybaby. I don't think the media is over hyping. You do. Good grief, pay attention, whiner...
 
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bripat9643

bripat9643

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As a scientist/engineer I evaluate ESTIMATES in a very calm analytical way.. The numbers the MEDIA want to run with are WORST CASE ESTIMATES..
Bullshit. Give examples. The real hoax here is the goobers parroting the media hype talking point.
That would be you, dumbass.
That doesn't make sense, crybaby. I don't think the media is over hyping. You do. Good grief, pay attention, whiner...
In other words, you're parroting the media hysteria. I'm not. Do I have to draw you a diagram?
 

HappyJoy

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As a scientist/engineer I evaluate ESTIMATES in a very calm analytical way.. The numbers the MEDIA want to run with are WORST CASE ESTIMATES..
Bullshit. Give examples. The real hoax here is the goobers parroting the media hype talking point.
That would be you, dumbass.
That doesn't make sense, crybaby. I don't think the media is over hyping. You do. Good grief, pay attention, whiner...
In other words, you're parroting the media hysteria. I'm not. Do I have to draw you a diagram?
No, you're parroting Danfromsquirrelhill.
 

NotfooledbyW

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“As of two days ago,[around - April 19] the COVID19 mortality rate in New York City for the entire population was between .11% and .16%, depending on whether you count only lab confirmed COVID19 fatalities or those diagnosed on the basis of symptoms are “ see link beloe

. Go search for Stanford and COVID mortality..
A study without peer review versus the actual crisis going on in NYC:

Not taking sides on COVID19’s mortality rate but must point out there are plenty more sides to come:
Have Fatality Numbers From New York Already Debunked the Santa Clara Serology Study?​

Bhattacharya has also been making the rounds of conservative media. Here he is on Tucker Carlson a week ago saying that the COVID19 death rate is ‘likely orders of magnitude lower’ than previously thought.​

The problem with this estimate is that, as I explained here, the actual mortality data out of New York City seems to make that estimate all but impossible.​

To put that differently, for something in the range of Bhattacharya’s IFR to be accurate, literally the entire population of New York City would have to have been infected already.​

The numbers are straightforward: as of two days ago, there were 9,101 lab confirmed cases and 4,582 presumptive diagnosed cases for a total of 13,683 fatalities In New York City. The population of New York City is 8,398,748. That comes to either .11% or .16% depending on which death toll number is used.​

I do not think anyone thinks 100% exposure is at all possible. Even if we assume what I think most experts would consider the highly unlikely possibility that 50% of New Yorkers have been infected with COVID19 that would mean a .33% IFR. To be generous, let’s say a third of the population of New York City had already been infected with COVID19 – very high but not inconceivable. That would mean a IFR of .49%.​

Needless to say, I’m no epidemiologist and I’m no statistician. I can’t tell you what the actual infection fatality rate is. But the actual death toll from New York City appears to place a hard lower bound on the numbers that is significantly higher than what the Stanford group’s serology studies suggest.​

 

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