The real death rate of COVID-19 in the U.S. may be 140 times smaller than what is being reported

bripat9643

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
 

Golfing Gator

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
you realize that the same issue is there for everything we claim a death rate on? We claim a death rate from the Flu but nobody knows how many were sick with it and did not get an official test...yet you people never talk about how those numbers are wrong...why is that?
 

Golfing Gator

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martybegan

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
you realize that the same issue is there for everything we claim a death rate on? We claim a death rate from the Flu but nobody knows how many were sick with it and did not get an official test...yet you people never talk about how those numbers are wrong...why is that?
The thing is with the flu there is decades of data that can be used to extrapolate overall infection rate. The Flu data isn't deaths/confirmed cases, it's deaths/assumed cases.

For COVID-19 we are using deaths/confirmed cases. For the flu we are using deaths/assumed cases.

The way to get extrapolation data is to blindly test the populace, to get a current infected/non-infected ratio, and apply this to the known case data to create the extrapolation.
 

martybegan

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toobfreak

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
I was going to say that one problem with testing (the alive and dead) is the problem of FALSE POSITIVES: You may test people who test positive who have have some Covid in their lungs, etc., but are not even sick, have no symptoms, won't ever get sick and will never become contagious. Then you might have people with flu-like symptoms who die and test positive as well, but Covid was not the primary cause of death.

THERE IS NO WAY of truly knowing the extent or spread of SARS-2 Covid-19 in the population unless you took a sampling of the population BEFORE the infection started as your base reference. There is a good chance a fair number of people would test positive for Covid a year ago anyway even before the infection started, either due to RANDOM ERRORS in the testing itself or due to other viruses similar enough to Covid to fool the test.
 

HappyJoy

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Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.
Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.
He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?
Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.
Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.
 

martybegan

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Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.
Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.
He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?
Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.
Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.
Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.
 

HappyJoy

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Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.
Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.
He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?
Because Iceland is doing studies via testing on infected/non-infected population counts.
Great. How has that early and vast testing benefited Iceland in preventing the spread? You know, the exact opposite of what we did. We kind of followed the Italian head up the ass model in fighting this disease.
Iceland is a far smaller country, and probably doesn't have the FDA/CDC red tape we have regarding approval of medical devices and treatments.
Some would call Iceland's healthcare system socialist too, but that would be inconvenient right now, wouldn't it?

Iceland for the most part is a rural country, even their biggest city is rather small. Even though they got hit pretty hard (probably due to heavy importation of goods and tourism) their mortality rate is far less than most other countries, including us. We recently surpassed them on the number of dead per capita. Iceland has taken social distancing more seriously as well as using testing to track the virus spread. These are things we are lacking in. The only benefit to comparing Iceland to us is to paint an unfounded and most likely false narrative to protect Dear Leader's reputation.
 

Rambunctious

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Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.
Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.
He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?
then he would not have had anything to write about and the sheep like the OP would not have been giving his BS clicks
:badgrin: :auiqs.jpg: :laughing0301:
 

HappyJoy

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Neat.

Danfromsquirrelhill has an opinion and a Wordpress page.
Unlike TDS morons, he can do simple math.
He picked a single country (Iceland) to compare to the US population to determine the COVID-19 mortality rate. Why Iceland? Why not Italy?
then he would not have had anything to write about and the sheep like the OP would not have been giving his BS clicks
:badgrin: :auiqs.jpg: :laughing0301:
It's the only reason dingleberry boi posted the wordpress article here.
 

Winco

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yet you people never talk about how those numbers are wrong...why is that?
Simple, doesn't fit their agenda.

There are poster here that claim the numbers are way lower, such an overweight person with a heart issue gets Corona and dies, they want that death recorded to 'Heart Disease' rather than Coronavirus,
Unbelievable the depths they will go to try to protect trump.
 

Care4all

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The NIH and the CDC do presume who has been infected vs the tests given for confirmation, and they estimate, based on model predictions and data from all other countries, that the USA mortality rate could settle at around 1%, almost half of the mortality rate being reported now on the actual test takers.

They do not predict it will be 140 times less than now, as Danny the squirrel does.
 

mikegriffith1

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
I hope this doesn't seem snobbish, but the name of the site just doesn't inspire much confidence.
 
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bripat9643

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bripat9643

bripat9643

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This should drive the hysteria mongers crazy. How are they going to generate hysteria about a disease that is less serious than the flu?

It’s possible that the number of people in the U.S. who are infected with COVID-19 is much bigger than the number that is being currently reported, but many of those people haven’t gotten substantially sick, and so haven’t gotten tested.
The death rate is calculated by dividing the number of people who die by the number who get infected.
But while we do have accurate information about the numerator, we really have no idea what the denominator is. It’s possible that the real denominator is magnitudes bigger than what is being reported, because most infected people have either no symptoms or minor symptoms, and thus, don’t get tested. If this is indeed the case, then it’s possible that the real death rate is far, far lower than the one that is being reported.
As of this writing (early March 30, 2020), in the U.S., 142,735 people have tested positive for COVID-19, and of those, 2,489 have died from it. (I got those numbers from this link, which is continuously being updated.)
Based on these numbers, the fatality rate in the U.S. is 1.744%
Meanwhile, Iceland tested a large segment of its population, including people with no symptoms, and found that 6.3% of them have COVID-19.
The U.S. has 328 million people. If we extrapolate Iceland’s figure of 6.3% to the U.S., it would suggest that more than 20 million people in the U.S. have COVID-19. (I realize that extrapolating Iceland’s test results to the U.S. is not the ideal way to determine the rate of infection in the U.S. But given the absence of this particular type of widespread testing in the U.S., it’s probably the most accurate guess that we can make at this point in time. Hopefully, such widespread testing will be done in the U.S., and we will then have a more accurate number.)
So for the U.S., the real denominator may be 140 times bigger than the one that is being reported.
Which, if true, would indicate that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is more than two magnitudes smaller than what is being reported.
And, if true, would mean that the estimated real death rate in the U.S. is 0.01246%
I hope this doesn't seem snobbish, but the name of the site just doesn't inspire much confidence.
True, but I've done the same calculation myself and posted it numerous times.
 

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