CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

How many lives is it worth? Would it be more advantageous to let the Chinese have it and have it be a thorn in their side (like Hong Kong).
Thats total nonsense

china is CRUSHING all opposition in Hong Kong

and using it as a warning to people like you not to mess with them

this “We win by losing” attitude has to stop
They are absorbing Hong Kong and, like a cancer, if it doesn't kill the Chinese Communist Party it will certainly make them sick and will likely spread everywhere. The HK people have tasted freedom.

As for the “We win by losing” thing, it certainly sounds better than "lose by winning". Did we ever lose a battle in Vietnam?
 
So we should use military force to get what we want?
your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan
We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.



So don't stand up to the bully?

Let him oppress?

Remember when you got beat up on the playground every day.
If we attacked China their gov't would never stop fighting. Do they care how many Chinese we killed?

You pick your battles and it wasn't every day.
 
We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.
Agreed

we want Taiwan to be free of brutal communist occupation

which is a very worthy and sensible goal
How many lives is it worth? Would it be more advantageous to let the Chinese have it and have it be a thorn in their side (like Hong Kong).

I don't fear the Chinese since I think their form of government will fail as soon as their economy cools off. They reinvented their country 70 years ago. When our country was 70 years old we were headed for Civil War. I tend to take the long view. We're great buddies with Vietnam after losing to them. China may end up being the same.


So, just sacrifice twenty million people, to invasion and oppression, because it might give US an advantage down the line?

That is not a convincing argument to me.


YOu don't see bothered by the stupidity of the Chinese rulers, who are willing to kill people by the millions for a nationalistic fantasy of Greater China.


Do you really think Nationalism is that important that nuclear war is ok?
Will you be there risking your life?
 
Is it yours?
No

but if we have no presence there it will belong to china entirely

what America wants is free access to peaceful trading partners, not a bloc of hostile nations obedient to china
 
If we attacked China their gov't would never stop fighting.
Ok

so you are bullied by china and afraid to stand up to them

that makes an invasion of Taiwan more likely than if we stood by them
 
This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:


“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.
Like with South Africa and Apartheid------the world and the people in these two nations would have been better off left under white rule. Geebus what a mess.

China is an evil empire expanding and planning on taking everyone out-----We fight for these people or china will take them and move to ASSIMILATING another and then another and then another.\ until they get to us. The conflict is inevitable at this point unless our plan is to just roll over and let CHINA take everyone including ourselves over. Hell china is corrupting our elections to take us over----and I am sorry but Biden will do nothing to save these people from his evil puppet masters.

Like with politics, kicking the evil out---will have to start in small local areas and then build its way up if it is ever to have a chance.
 
So we should use military force to get what we want?
your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan
We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.



So don't stand up to the bully?

Let him oppress?

Remember when you got beat up on the playground every day.
If we attacked China their gov't would never stop fighting. Do they care how many Chinese we killed?

You pick your battles and it wasn't every day.


Twice a day.
 
This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:


“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. to move toward recognizing Taiwan independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.
Like with South Africa and Apartheid------the world and the people in these two nations would have been better off left under white rule. Geebus what a mess.

China is an evil empire expanding and planning on taking everyone out-----We fight for these people or china will take them and move to ASSIMILATING another and then another and then another.\ until they get to us. The conflict is inevitable at this point unless our plan is to just roll over and let CHINA take everyone including ourselves over. Hell china is corrupting our elections to take us over----and I am sorry but Biden will do nothing to save these people from his evil puppet masters.

Like with politics, kicking the evil out---will have to start in small local areas and then build its way up if it is ever to have a chance.
I can practically hear those dominos falling. Or was that the 50's?
 
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Anyway, the idea the US needs free access for trade anywhere while it levels penalties on countries trading with countries on which it has imposed sanctions is just more laughable exceptionalism. Hoho.
 
The idea that we are in an “existential” fight with a China determined to conquer the world is a paranoid fantasy. This is why analogies to “appeasement” of German fascism (and its allies) fail.

The “domino theory” once applied to “world communism.” The U.S. experience in the Cold War, containing and then defeating the Soviet Union, may appear a better analogy for the U.S. and “Free World” struggle against China.

But on closer examination this is also profoundly misleading. Here is another thoughtful article by Chas Freeman on the nature of U.S.-China geo-political and diplomatic contention. It was originally delivered as a talk to the Asia American Forum in September of 2020:

 
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What makes it more likely is the US changing the rules we play by, thank you Trump, and expecting the Chinese to back down.
China has been prevented from invading Taiwan by the US Navy for 70 years, long before trump came along

but now thanks to stupid trade policy that has grown the chinese economy and the chinese military the CCP thinks its powerful enough to invade
 

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