CDZ The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

[Mac-7]

They are very xenophobic and nationalistic but, unless we provoke them, thanks Pompao, they will play the long game. Invading Taiwan would cost much and gain little.

China does not want to invade Taiwan

but they will use the threat of military force to convince the US to back off and allow them to have their way

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered by experienced U.S. Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1993-94 — Chas Freeman — to the Committee for the Republic.

It discusses the drift toward war over Taiwan and carefully reviews the history of our relations with Communist China. The writer is one of the most insistent anti-war, anti-militarist voices speaking on this issue in the U.S., but even he has little hope and few suggestions for avoiding what he calls our present bipartisan “sleepwalking” into major conflict there. The article was written a few weeks ago. Here are just a few highlights:

“Taiwan is an established American foreign policy success story that appears to be nearing the end of its shelf life. Management of the Taiwan question has long been the key to peace or war – possibly nuclear war – between the United States and China. Now, the door may be closing to peace....

“The PLA, according to some U.S. military and intelligence experts, could now destroy Taiwan at will and take it in as little as three days.... As was true of Hanoi, Beijing is a determinedly nationalist opponent that enjoys the balance of fervor in its struggle to end the American-backed division of its country.

“To normalize relations with Beijing, successive U.S. presidents gave specific commitments in three carefully negotiated joint communiqués. These documents – issued in 1972, 1979, and 1982 – are the foundation of Sino-American relations. In them, the U.S. government promised that it would no longer maintain official relations with Taipei, that it would have no troops and military installations on the island, and that it would sell only carefully selected defensive weapons to Taiwan on a restrained basis. In the third communiqué, the United States agreed to limit the quality and reduce the quantity of its arms sales to Taiwan.

“Over the succeeding decades, Washington has progressively eroded or set aside every one of these strictures.... On November 12, 2020 (nine days after the U.S. presidential election made his boss a lame duck), Secretary of State Mike Pompeo completed the trashing of the “one-China” stipulation by declaring (inaccurately) that ‘Taiwan has not been part of China.’

“By progressively going back on its word, Washington has established a reputation in China for faithlessness that precludes anyone there trusting further American commitments. Pro forma protests that the United States stands by the “three joint communiqués” fool no one but amnesiac Americans. The resulting distrust precludes new Sino-American understandings about how to manage differences over Taiwan. But without such understandings, the escalating contradictions between Chinese nationalism and Taiwanese identity politics are taking us toward conflict....

“As long as the people of Taiwan continue to believe that they have a blank check from the United States that they can fill out in American blood, they will feel free to ... push the envelope even more than they already have. Meanwhile, whatever they do, the military balance in the area will continue to shift against them. So, Taipei must decide whether to seek a negotiated accommodation with the Chinese across the Strait or risk a war with them that – even with American backing – would destroy the island’s democracy and prosperity without gaining independence for it....

“There is no advantage to dispelling the current ambiguity. But surely, we must base our management of the Taiwan issue on a considered judgment about what we are and are not prepared to do to reduce the danger of war over it, even if we keep that judgment to ourselves.

“A shifting balance of power, stiff-necked nationalism in Beijing, delusions of immunity from harm in Taipei, and a strange mixture of bravado and inattention in Washington provide all the ingredients for a tragedy. I see no easy answers for any of the participants to halt their march toward catastrophe.”

Chas Freeman Responsible Statecraft

The outgoing Pompeo State Department worked overtime putting the U.S. on a collision course with Beijing. It has just officially accused China of “genocide” in Xinjiang and gone further in treating Taiwan as an independent country than any administration since the mid-1970s. Biden’s Secretary of State has repeated the genocide charge. The U.S. is now the only country in the world to use this provocative language, though it is still possible it may be diplomatically withdrawn.

But the problem of Taiwan remains. Every act of the U.S. or Taiwan to move toward independence now makes China more likely to put an end to this question once and for all. The sanctions pressure the U.S. has imposed on Taiwan high tech chip manufacturers not to continue selling to their biggest customers in China may itself already have decided the question, with China now just awaiting the proper moment.

What do serious people here think about this issue?
Please read the whole article before responding.
Please don’t make this into a partisan issue.
It is truly one of the great geo-political problems of our times.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to
secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving
their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any
Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right
of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,
laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in
such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and
Happiness."

Why not help?

What if the French did not help us?

Yorktown....

“Why not help?” — What kind of “help” are you proposing?

The author believes — and I agree with him here — that open military moves or recognition by the U.S. of Taiwan independence will lead to a devastating conflict in which Taiwan will be destroyed. Such a war cannot be won. Taiwan is a small island just off the coast of China, which is a nuclear and industrial power of 1.4 billion people. The 13 colonies sat on the edge of a huge continent across an ocean from Britain in the 18th Century of sailing ships. The Founding Fathers were practical men who knew they had a chance to win.

Today in any serious military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan the U.S. will almost inevitably lose, and it will quite possibly lead to nuclear exchanges. Who will that “help”?

What would Thomas Paine thing about the plight of the Tiawanese and the hands of the Red Communist Chinese Despots? They should submit?

It is Common Sense.

Accordingly, you should change your ID as you do The Father of the American Revolution a great dis-service.

The Taiwan question is more about the fate of America than Taiwan

if we allow china to get what it wants by the threat of military force there will be no end to just as there was with hitler

South China Sea claims.

Red Communist China will then settle all these border disputes to their satisfaction:

It's not just India, China has border disputes with 18 countries. Here's the list

The border clash between the Indian Army and the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has sparked an anti-China sentiment in the country. Calls to boycott Chinese goods and reduce import from China can be heard loud and clear from up top in the political elite, to the streets next to our...

www.indiatvnews.com

leftists admire this garbage.

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

They are very xenophobic and nationalistic but, unless we provoke them, thanks Pompao, they will play the long game. Invading Taiwan would cost much and gain little.

China does not want to invade Taiwan

but they will use the threat of military force to convince the US to back off and allow them to have their way

They have said it is coming back eventually.

Right time.

Semicounductor industry:

Would China Invade Taiwan for TSMC?

The second piece of a two-part analysis focusing on semiconductors and cross-strait geopolitics.

thediplomat.com

 

[alang1216]

if we allow china to get what it wants by the threat of military force there will be no end to just as there was with hitler

So we should use military force to get what we want?

 

[Mac-7]

So we should use military force to get what we want?

your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan

 

[alang1216]

So we should use military force to get what we want?

your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

 

[Mac-7]

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

Agreed

we want Taiwan to be free of brutal communist occupation

which is a very worthy and sensible goal

 

[alang1216]

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

Agreed

we want Taiwan to be free of brutal communist occupation

which is a very worthy and sensible goal

How many lives is it worth? Would it be more advantageous to let the Chinese have it and have it be a thorn in their side (like Hong Kong).

I don't fear the Chinese since I think their form of government will fail as soon as their economy cools off. They reinvented their country 70 years ago. When our country was 70 years old we were headed for Civil War. I tend to take the long view. We're great buddies with Vietnam after losing to them. China may end up being the same.

 

[Mac-7]

How many lives is it worth? Would it be more advantageous to let the Chinese have it and have it be a thorn in their side (like Hong Kong).

Thats total nonsense

china is CRUSHING all opposition in Hong Kong

and using it as a warning to people like you not to mess with them

this “We win by losing” attitude has to stop

 

[Correll]

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,
that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights,
that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Why not help?

Because slavery showed the Declaration to be bullshit. You want to go to war for bullshit?

No, it didn't.

The nation went to war for Independence and won, founding a nation that became one the best nations this world has ever seen, so far.


That you find fault with that course of events, does not reflect well on you.

 

[Correll]

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

Agreed

we want Taiwan to be free of brutal communist occupation

which is a very worthy and sensible goal

How many lives is it worth? Would it be more advantageous to let the Chinese have it and have it be a thorn in their side (like Hong Kong).

I don't fear the Chinese since I think their form of government will fail as soon as their economy cools off. They reinvented their country 70 years ago. When our country was 70 years old we were headed for Civil War. I tend to take the long view. We're great buddies with Vietnam after losing to them. China may end up being the same.

So, just sacrifice twenty million people, to invasion and oppression, because it might give US an advantage down the line?

That is not a convincing argument to me.


YOu don't see bothered by the stupidity of the Chinese rulers, who are willing to kill people by the millions for a nationalistic fantasy of Greater China.


Do you really think Nationalism is that important that nuclear war is ok?

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

So we should use military force to get what we want?

your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

So don't stand up to the bully?

Let him oppress?

Remember when you got beat up on the playground every day.

 

[Correll]

So we should use military force to get what we want?

your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

So don't stand up to the bully?

Let him oppress?

Remember when you got beat up on the playground every day.

They threaten military force because they want to conquer and oppress people.

We threaten military force because we want to help keep people free.


Liberals can see no distinction between the two.

 

[Mac-7]

Liberals can see no distinction between the two.

I think liberals are bright enough to see the difference but they just dont care

China is their god

 

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

So we should use military force to get what we want?

your question is unclear

America has not threatened to invade Taiwan

We have threatened to use military force to keep the Chinese from occupying Taiwan because that is what we want.

So don't stand up to the bully?

Let him oppress?

Remember when you got beat up on the playground every day.

They threaten military force because they want to conquer and oppress people.

We threaten military force because we want to help keep people free.


Liberals can see no distinction between the two.

North Africa
France
Philippines
Germany
Japan
Korea
Panama
Kosovo
Iraq
Afghanistan


The US GI should be the all time nobel peace prize winner

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The Taiwan question is more about the fate of America than Taiwan

The fate of the United States of America will be decided by the wisdom of its own people and by the wisdom of its elected leaders.

Right now the U.S. can barely defend its own Capitol, its own Republican institutions. The U.S. cannot “save” Taiwan, anymore than it could save China in 1949, or later ... Vietnam, Iraq, Syria or Libya.

Our leaders should clearly reiterate pledges we repeatedly made to China over the course of 4-5 decades. We owe it to the Taiwanese not to mislead them. We should help them to understand that we will not and cannot go to war with China in order to “save” them. We should reiterate that we recognize only “One China,” and that we have no intention to unilaterally recognize an independent Taiwan. This is the minimum necessary corrective action we should take. Only in this way do I believe there is a decent chance China (and Taiwan) can be persuaded to reiterate their own previous long-standing very useful “diplomatic fiction” that they recognize a goal of eventual “peaceful unification.”

China does not want to violently take over the island. Why should we or our political leaders be following foolish policies that only make such a move more likely? Because we just enjoy sounding like tough guys? Because our elected officials need to sound like tough guys to curry favor with voters here?

 

[cnm]

Because our elected officials need to sound like tough guys to curry favor with voters here?

Well, with posters here, at least.

 

[Mac-7]

We should reiterate that we recognize only “One China,” and that we have no intention to unilaterally recognize an independent Taiwan.

Why must there be only one china when the people of Taiwan want no part of a brutal communist dictatorship?

If we abandon Taiwan we will lose all of asia to dominion by china

eventually we will be dominated by china ourselves

 

[cnm]

So we aren't independent?

Independent hypocrites. Hypocrisy is nothing to go to war over.

What hypocracy?

The hypocrisy of waving the Declaration while ignoring that it was not applied to slaves.

 

[cnm]

If we abandon Taiwan we will lose all of asia

Really?

Is it yours?