The "Art of the Deal".... Ukraine... when they give Putin everything he wants before they've even started

[Mac1958]

I thought healthy relationships should be mutually profitable. Like "We defend you - you pay us". Your current relationships seems really toxic. Some even call them "strategic parasitism".

As if he is wrong. They should be more interested in alliance with the USA, and, for this, they should do what the USA said them to do.

There are many ways to maintain important relationships that are better than "we're bigger than you, you need us more than we need you, so what we say goes".

That is the behavior of a child, an adversary, not a world leader. Demonstrating fundamental respect and decency is not weakness, regardless of what Trump thinks.

So, Europe is understandably looking at other options. It's already happening.

 

[Zavulon]

How many times has Putin threatened a nuclear war? I think it's more than 50 times since 2022.

But if the UK openly and officially declared war to Russia, then Russia won't have a choice but nuke HMNB Clyde and destroy 75% of British nuclear arsenal and then blackmail the UK in peace in Russian terms.

He's not going to do it. China would shun him, Russia would suffer way more than other countries. It's not worth it for Putin, it's just his play book.

If the UK already declared war, he has no choice between war and peace. He have choice between situations in which he, after the proper preparations, attack first and then demanded the UK to surrender (in which the UK can retaliate and destroy not Moscow, but may be Saint-Petersbourg or other large city):

• optimistic scenario, Russia doesn't suffer civilian losses at all,
• realistic scenario, Russia suffer some thousands of civilians casualties;
• pessimistic scenario, Russia suffer lesser than 1 mln of civilian losses.

and between situation in which the UK attack first with all their three SSBNs in the moment of their choice and minimal Russian preparedness (of course, after such attack Russia will totally annihilate Britain, but who knows, may be British Toffs already have shelters in New Zealand and they simply don't care about ordinary Brits).

• optimistic scenario, Russia suffer few million civilian causualties;
• realistic scenario, Russia suffer five million casualties;
• pessimistic scenario, Russia suffer twenty million casualties. (Plus there is possibility of escalation).

Facing this choice Russia simpy won't care about position of China, India, America or whoever else. War is war, and other countries may be allied, neutral or choose escalation and try to do something stupid. (That is exactly why in the described situation Russia will eliminate British nuclear forces immediately).

 

[Zavulon]

And why not? Should US allies not be protected?

It depends on how useful are they and how badly this protection can turns out. And no, Georgia saw how you "protected" Ukraine and their question is not "Should we ask Americans to protect us?", the answer is clear "no". Their question is "What can we do to not allow Americans protect us?".

 

[Zavulon]

There are many ways to maintain important relationships that are better than "we're bigger than you, you need us more than we need you, so what we say goes".

That is the behavior of a child, an adversary, not a world leader. Demonstrating fundamental respect and decency is not weakness, regardless of what Trump thinks.

So, Europe is understandably looking at other options. It's already happening.

And this is really primitive manipulation in toxic relationships (behaviour of a spoiled hysterical female teenager). "We depends on you, we can't survive without you, so you should do what we said you to do. You should give us a lot of money, you should send us a lot of goods, you should send your soldiers in another meaningless meatgrinder and you should endanger you own cities and civilians".
Basically it is all lie. Europe can survive if they pay proper price for their own defence. There is a lot of fat to be melted in muscles. Ukrainians can live in Russia (they did it for centuries). Sending soldiers in another meaningless meatgrinder (and leaving your own civilians in danger) won't add you any points of respect (even among Western Ukrainians, who will call you occupants and shoot in your backs), and the stupidiest thing to imagine is to start nuclear confrontation with Russia for the right of some expired East-European dictator to discriminate, abuse and kill his own civilians (say nothing about some mineral deposits, not as big as they want to convince you).

 

[frigidweirdo]

But if the UK openly and officially declared war to Russia, then Russia won't have a choice but nuke HMNB Clyde and destroy 75% of British nuclear arsenal and then blackmail the UK in peace in Russian terms.


If the UK already declared war, he has no choice between war and peace. He have choice between situations in which he, after the proper preparations, attack first and then demanded the UK to surrender (in which the UK can retaliate and destroy not Moscow, but may be Saint-Petersbourg or other large city):

• optimistic scenario, Russia doesn't suffer civilian losses at all,
• realistic scenario, Russia suffer some thousands of civilians casualties;
• pessimistic scenario, Russia suffer lesser than 1 mln of civilian losses.

and between situation in which the UK attack first with all their three SSBNs in the moment of their choice and minimal Russian preparedness (of course, after such attack Russia will totally annihilate Britain, but who knows, may be British Toffs already have shelters in New Zealand and they simply don't care about ordinary Brits).

• optimistic scenario, Russia suffer few million civilian causualties;
• realistic scenario, Russia suffer five million casualties;
• pessimistic scenario, Russia suffer twenty million casualties. (Plus there is possibility of escalation).

Facing this choice Russia simpy won't care about position of China, India, America or whoever else. War is war, and other countries may be allied, neutral or choose escalation and try to do something stupid. (That is exactly why in the described situation Russia will eliminate British nuclear forces immediately).

That's total nonsense.

Putin is a bluffer and not a very good one.

 

[frigidweirdo]

It depends on how useful are they and how badly this protection can turns out. And no, Georgia saw how you "protected" Ukraine and their question is not "Should we ask Americans to protect us?", the answer is clear "no". Their question is "What can we do to not allow Americans protect us?".

Some countries are screwed, they're not important enough to get proper protection, but they live too close to a country with a leader who's a total asshole.

 

[Mac1958]

And this is really primitive manipulation in toxic relationships (behaviour of a spoiled hysterical female teenager). "We depends on you, we can't survive without you, so you should do what we said you to do. You should give us a lot of money, you should send us a lot of goods, you should send your soldiers in another meaningless meatgrinder and you should endanger you own cities and civilians".
Basically it is all lie. Europe can survive if they pay proper price for their own defence. There is a lot of fat to be melted in muscles. Ukrainians can live in Russia (they did it for centuries). Sending soldiers in another meaningless meatgrinder (and leaving your own civilians in danger) won't add you any points of respect (even among Western Ukrainians, who will call you occupants and shoot in your backs), and the stupidiest thing to imagine is to start nuclear confrontation with Russia for the right of some expired East-European dictator to discriminate, abuse and kill his own civilians (say nothing about some mineral deposits, not as big as they want to convince you).

Europe is free to operate in what it decides is in its best interests. Period.

America is no longer a trusted ally for Europe, and now Europe knows it. As does Canada. And Russia, China, Iran & North Korea.

 

[Zavulon]

That's total nonsense.

Putin is a bluffer and not a very good one.

If Putin is bluffer - the EU doesn't need American support at all. They overwhelm Russia as 3:1 in population (say nothing about total wealth) and can defeat Russia by themselves, even if America is absolutely and really neutral.

 

[Zavulon]

Europe is free to operate in what it decides is in its best interests. Period.

Yrs, they are free. But their "free actions" should not endanger American civilians. If they want to fight the war against Russians - they are free to do it without American protection.

America is no longer a trusted ally for Europe, and now Europe knows it. As does Canada. And Russia, China, Iran & North Korea.

America is pragmatical and always have been.

 

[frigidweirdo]

If Putin is bluffer - the EU doesn't need American support at all. They overwhelm Russia as 3:1 in population (say nothing about total wealth) and can defeat Russia by themselves, even if America is absolutely and really neutral.

Yeah, maybe. The problem is these politicians are worried. Putin bluffs, they don't call his bluff.

But, Putin won't use nukes. He doesn't dare.

 

[Mac1958]

Yrs, they are free. But their "free actions" should not endanger American civilians. If they want to fight the war against Russians - they are free to do it without American protection.

America is pragmatical and always have been.

If American civilians are over there, they are on their own. Europe is not responsible for them.

If we're going to separate from Europe, and we clearly are, then it's a new world. Nobody owes America anything. AND, America can't pick and choose who is on our side and when.

 

[Zavulon]

Some countries are screwed, they're not important enough to get proper protection, but they live too close to a country with a leader who's a total asshole.

Bad for them, but I failed to see why America should care about it, or get involved and make the things much worse.

 

[Zavulon]

Yeah, maybe. The problem is these politicians are worried. Putin bluffs, they don't call his bluff.

But, Putin won't use nukes. He doesn't dare.

European politicians (and not only politicians) are worried. American politicians (and not only politicians) are worried. And I do understand their sources of information and reasons to be worried. What kind of magic crystal do you posses and how reliable, you think, it is?

 

[Dragonlady]

That's what he wants Putin to think. Then ... Wham! Trump rips open his shirt and goes superhero on his ass.

Doc thinks you’re serious!!!

He believes Trump is a great negotiator. The guy who never prepares, who just walks in, reads the room and goes with his gut instincts.

These are the same gut instincts that lead Trump to go bankrupt seven times, being involved in over 4000 lawsuits, being arrested, being convicted on multiple counts, and being impeached - twice. Trump has LOST more money than any businessman in the history of the world.

So maybe Trump isn’t so good at reading the room and his gut instincts have never worked.

But Doc is a true believer.

 

[Zavulon]

If American civilians are over there, they are on their own. Europe is not responsible for them.

America is responsible for them (whereever they are). And no, I meant first of all American civilians in America. Nuclear war with Russia will cause death and injury for many of them.

If we're going to separate from Europe, and we clearly are, then it's a new world. Nobody owes America anything. AND, America can't pick and choose who is on our side and when.

I think they still owe the USA for long years of peace. And, America can choose on whose side she is or even choose not to choose sides.

 

[Dragonlady]

Bad for them, but I failed to see why America should care about it, or get involved and make the things much worse.

It’s called “enlightened self-interest”. What you don’t deal with in foreign countries, will come home to bite you in the ass.

AIDS, Ebola, Covid - all came to the USA.

If the USA had dealt with MS 13 violence at home, instead of exporting it to El Salvador, you wouldn’t be having mass migration from El Salvador.

MS 13 is an American gang, formed and headquartered in Los Angeles. The US deported this violent offenders back to El Salvador, where they hadn’t lived since they were children and they took over the country.

 

[Dragonlady]

America is responsible for them (whereever they are). And no, I meant first of all American civilians in America. Nuclear war with Russia will cause death and injury for many of them.

I think they still owe the USA for long years of peace. And, America can choose on whose side she is or even choose not to choose sides.

You ungrateful little shit. You profited off You ungrateful little shit. You profited off of those wars you made billions off those wars and then you came in and cleaned up the mess you left.

And then you profited again and made billions more rebuilding Europe after you let the Nazis destroy it.

Added to which all of NATO came to your aid after 9/11 in Iraq and Afghanistan. For which we got nothing in return.

You ungrateful little shit. You profited off of those wars you made billions off those wars and then you came in and cleaned up the mess you left.

And then you profited again and made billions more rebuilding Europe after you let the Nazis destroy it.

Added to which all of NATO came to your aid after 9/11 in Iraq and Afghanistan. For which we got nothing in return.

Nobody owes you anything you selfish prick.

 

[TimFitz]

Where's the recording of that conversation? Or is the sucking sound of Trump going down on Pooty too

No NATO. Having no NATO up against Russia's border was part of the original treaty with Russia, when they put NATO and everything all together.
Besides, Russia has so much border, no matter where you put NATO, there will always be somewhere else to pick on.

There was no treaty with Russia.

 

[Zavulon]

It’s called “enlightened self-interest”. What you don’t deal with in foreign countries, will come home to bite you in the ass.

And when you deal with something in foreign countries - it is also coming America to bite you in the ass. Wrong foreign policy cause problems at home. Sometimes not getting involved is the best choice.

 

[Dragonlady]

And when you deal with something in foreign countries - it is also coming America to bite you in the ass. Wrong foreign policy cause problems at home. Sometimes not getting involved is the best choice.

But Trump is getting involved in all the wrong places and for all the wrong reasons.