DarthTrader
Diamond Member
- Mar 29, 2022
- 1,495
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- #1
If debating, I'd take the "Russia is winning" side of the debate in a who is winning a new cold war, Russia or the US; type of question.
I want to try and condense a lot of concepts to explain why and then discuss them.
I think Putin expected a set of responses from the US/West in the event of Ukraine invasion. I think he was forced by blundering statements about UA joining NATO but that also could have been just his excuse rather than giving benefit of the doubt. Because, Russia intends to pry the reserve currency away from the US Dollar into a basket of currencies. Depriving the US the ability to denominate its debt in its own currency, forcing the US to have a debt crisis and diminished ability to maintain deficit spending.
US EMPIRE - Basically the US uses the Dollar to draw capital from the world, it's happening now in the "milkshake effect" with rate hikes (look it up). Capital is draining from Emerging economies into the US Dollar. This allows the US to make the world pay for its deficit spending to maintain its military advantage. Classic Empire.
Russia seeks to break that and it counted on the US weaponizing SWIFT and splitting the EU from NATO/US objectives and soon it will smash the EU on an anvil with ruble payments for oil/gas.
Russia is playing a long game and it looks like the US made some significant blunders.
Only military defeat in Ukraine could change this course now.
I want to try and condense a lot of concepts to explain why and then discuss them.
- Russia's bonds are trading at a premium which means they are in demand
- I am still studying this one; I trade commodities, oil, uranium and gold mostly. But; I understand the basics of US central banking, IRRPs, repo, reverse repo, asset-for-asset swaps, credit swaps, etc. If I've read the basics about Russia's bond par values, Russia's bonds are trading at a very extreme premium, meaning very high demand.
- Russia demands EU pay in Rubles
- EU can't pay in Rubles because EU doesn't have Rubles.
- This is important to the Russian bond situation - Russia WILL without a doubt demand that EU pays in Rubles. The result is that EU will have to convert asset-to-asset swaps or credit swaps for Russian bonds at an EXTREME PREMIUM. Russia will make 20%+ on this investment. An amazing return on investment.
- Most likely the holders of these bonds are Russia Central Bank and People's Bank of China and etc.
- Militarily Russia is winning
- Just looking at a map and anyone can tell that Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv (except for one artery), Mariupol and the entire Joint Operations Center, and Kiev (except for one artery) is entirely surrounded.
- Russia just sits back and artillery barrages anything they want, they choose the tempo of the engagement, they control all food and all weapons shipments to the conflict zone. It's irrelevant if weapons make it to the west, there is no way to get those weapons to the bulk of the Ukrainian Army.
- I argue against Michael Kofman who states that Russia's invasion was "bizarre".
- Instead I think Russia's invasion was brilliantly cheap.
- Example: Ukraine claims destroying 10-30 Ka-2# type helicopters. Russia has 700+. Only 5 more years and Ukraine should destroy them all...
- Russia sent in soviet junk that has a current cost of about $10,000 per T72-B3. Russian soldiers are told to abandon old equipment on disadvantageous contact with the UA military.
- Most all of Russian vehicle losses are old Soviet junk that is worthless.
- Russia's tactics have been one of shrewd capitalist business sense.
- Russia's war fighting would be exactly how Britain won its empire from 1700s-1900s. Very shrewd business sense. Waste not a penny, spill the blood, lives are cheap. The best Russian equipment has been preserved. Damage is to older-type soviet equipment.
- I'm not arguing that Russia has been executing a flawless war. Rather it's just executing a much smarter war than the US which left some $billions of dollars of ammunition and weapons for the Taliban when it left unceremoniously in defeat.
- Economically Russia holds all the cards
- Predominantly in food and fertilizer. Russia will have a long list of "allies" who beg for food or face destruction or revolution. US is not in a position to offset this advantage.
- EV vehicles use Russian Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt, etc. The Automotive Industry uses resources sourced in Russia, palladium/platinum etc.
- Steel - The best Nickel (stainless steel) in the world comes from Russia.
- Uranium - Russia does about 40% of the processing of global Uranium.
- Oil - Obviously a powerhouse here. EU can't even spare a drop of Russian oil.
- Gas - Same as oil. EU imports 40% of its gas from Russia. US pledges to offset a meager 1% of Russian Gas imports.
- 39% of Titanium used in Global Aircraft production comes from Russia.
- Ukraine
- Russia costs of war including sanctions (if they even are applied, currently they are ineffective); would be approximately $186B USD.
- Ukraine if conquered = $286B USD in revenues for Russia.
- Ukraine is sitting on $7.2 Trillion USD in Gold, Uranium, hydrocarbons, farm lands and coal plus some other minerals.
- Russia clearly - if wins militarily - wins a lot of treasure in invading Ukraine.
I think Putin expected a set of responses from the US/West in the event of Ukraine invasion. I think he was forced by blundering statements about UA joining NATO but that also could have been just his excuse rather than giving benefit of the doubt. Because, Russia intends to pry the reserve currency away from the US Dollar into a basket of currencies. Depriving the US the ability to denominate its debt in its own currency, forcing the US to have a debt crisis and diminished ability to maintain deficit spending.
US EMPIRE - Basically the US uses the Dollar to draw capital from the world, it's happening now in the "milkshake effect" with rate hikes (look it up). Capital is draining from Emerging economies into the US Dollar. This allows the US to make the world pay for its deficit spending to maintain its military advantage. Classic Empire.
Russia seeks to break that and it counted on the US weaponizing SWIFT and splitting the EU from NATO/US objectives and soon it will smash the EU on an anvil with ruble payments for oil/gas.
Russia is playing a long game and it looks like the US made some significant blunders.
Only military defeat in Ukraine could change this course now.
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