Retirement: Where do you stand?

[william the wie]

October 1992? That's when those who turned 16 during the meltdown were born. When they tried to get a first job so they could buy cool clothes and/or a car they got a reality check hard and fast. That kind of lesson lasts.

Edit I've been making a lot of arithmetic errors lately. I've booked 12.5% returns in the last two months and 75% annualized returns gets me looking out for what I am missing sight of. I am quite nervous.

 

[antagon]

that shit's brilliant, william.


edit: 1992... which i'm more comfortable with... on the cusp of gen z who i know nothing about.

 

[Toro]

Doing fine.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

yeah. it is a dangerous game which isn't for everyone.

i'm not likely to be operating the same business as i am now by the time i retire, although that is possible. my hope would be to expand and diversify my portfolios in each of business equity and real estate such that it is of reasonable worth 20 years from now when i'm in my 50s. partial or silent ownership is a potential retirement option, should i get that right. for the time being most of that effort is invested in earning more. later on, it might be wise to make it more about building equity if that's the basis of my retirement.

i've got a feeling that saving dollars for retirement is a dangerous game, too. it scares me more at least. somehow i think dollars are worth more now than 20-30 years down the line, particularly with the ability to invest in my own enterprises at my disposal in the short term.

I can't argue your points here.
I have been thinking about alot of this lately.
At this moment I have only about $4500 in the market, although I have done exceptionally well since 2007 when this all began by timing the ups and downs with uncanny luck really. I pulled out all funds in March. The $4500 is just what I have put into a 401k account since then.
Right now I have a distinct belief that the markets are absolutely destined for a more serious decline than what occurred two years ago - this 11,400 is ludicrous...downright insanity. And if people thought they lost money in the last few years...if they are still in when this market adjusts...I really feel for them.
However this limbo I am in cannot continue, I am far too liquid with a declining dollar value. I waited too long to by up gold (yeah I know Trajan you tried to tell me) and buying it now would not be wise.
I really don't know what to do at this moment. I only owe about $60k now on our home, I should just go ahead and pay it off...but boy I should be able to take that same $60k and do far better than the interest savings.

pheh.

As for retirement, barring unforseen disasters - I will at the very least be comfortable.

i'm kinda allergic to marketized investment, so i affirm your skepticism. the only way i'll get involved in that shit would be a public offering of a business of mine that i didn't really care about or care to own a significant share of.

the best investment is one which you are able to compound with your time. i think 'your money working for you' is overrated for this reason. if you have vast excesses of money, or are trying to retire, then it makes sense, however. i'm just not there yet.

if i were looking to dump $60k on real estate, it would be on another piece of real estate. yummy market at the moment. waiting for that bottom.

Oh no doubt there is some amazingly cheap property out there.
As an example, a property just north of here was on the market for 3 years...during most of that time it was listed at $1.3 mil....it sold I think it was in September for $507,000...man oh man...now there is misery for one.

I use to own some rental properties, but I hated it. It can be enormously stressful. To be honest some of the most lucrative activity I have ever done was when I was in my mid twenties and did...oh...maybe 20-30 roofing jobs. (I actually knew what I was doing and was insured...not some guy with a pickup truck and a magnet on the side) I had 5 employees. I made a TONNNN of money...serious money, it is what I used to buy the rental properties and what I used to put a pot down on our home a long time ago.

Me and a buddy almost went into business together in 2006, thank GOD we didn't.

 

[antagon]

Oh no doubt there is some amazingly cheap property out there.
As an example, a property just north of here was on the market for 3 years...during most of that time it was listed at $1.3 mil....it sold I think it was in September for $507,000...man oh man...now there is misery for one.

I use to own some rental properties, but I hated it. It can be enormously stressful. To be honest some of the most lucrative activity I have ever done was when I was in my mid twenties and did...oh...maybe 20-30 roofing jobs. (I actually knew what I was doing and was insured...not some guy with a pickup truck and a magnet on the side) I had 5 employees. I made a TONNNN of money...serious money, it is what I used to buy the rental properties and what I used to put a pot down on our home a long time ago.

Me and a buddy almost went into business together in 2006, thank GOD we didn't.

i'm scared to death of partners, but i love construction. better living than i'd manage as an engineer in the labor market. it puts people to work. it's responsible for work we could be proud of and which is real and useful.

me and the biz rent a house and a dirt lot to park my shit on. i have a small block of flats in the ghetto that i used to live/work out of, now it's just for rents. it is a sumbitch dealing with renters, but i run it like a business too. that way the renters are just customers with all the love/hate that comes with.

customers/renters are awful in this economy. deadbeats. i've turned to the teet with government contracts and section 8. its been ok. more paperwork; less sales. i wish things were like 05... except for them house prices. they'll get worse(better) yet.

 

[william the wie]

The real difference in economic returns is simple accounting.
Assets should always be held on your personal books at cost or market whichever is lower. Therefore paper losses is an oxymoron and paper profits do not exist. The stock you own will come back just about the same time as 8 track tapes so get rid of it. Ace Greenberg the guy who built up Bear Stearns before Cayne blew it up had and may still have a three weeks rule: a loss must be recognized within three weeks. A .400 batter gets a hit off of less then 10% of the pitches thrown in his at bats and many batters can force errors and walks so often that they can be an offensive threat with a 1% success rate, the same is true of speculation and investing.

Better yet the foibles forced on the professionals by convention, regulation and size. For example I made exceptional returns in 2000 and 2001 that beat Berkshire Hathaway not because I am smarter than either Buffet or Munger which I am not but because they could not shift the fourth decimal place of their ROI by competing with me in the DRIP/DSP market. Even looking at something where they cannot put together at least a $200 million stake is not worth their time. My stakes can be 10,000 times smaller and still be significant in my portfolio. I would not advise anyone to invest the Warren Buffet way unless they have at least $10 billion in liquid assets and controlling interest in their investment vehicle.

 

[LiberalNut]

I'm 45 and I'm effectivey retired. I live off my capital investments and have been buying more real estate of late. I never really took SS seriously and still regard it only as gravy that's coming in 17 years or so.

Retiring early is easy. My wife an I saved at least 25% of our income every year. We paid off the mortgage ASAP. We made some good moves in the stock market, getting in and out of techs at the right time and investing heavilly in emerging markets, especially South Korea. We invested the max in series I bonds back in the late 90s and those puppies have been returning like 7.5% a year. We both have maxed out contributions to IRAs.

Next year my wife will be able to retire from her 20 hours a week at the hospital (she's a nurse) and we can buy into her union healthcare plan for like $70 a week.

Then we sit back, relax and live off the rentals till we can start collecting SS and withdrawing from the IRAs. If all works out as planned, i should be able to leave my son like 3 million worth of real estate free and clear when I kick the bucket.

All that said, we don't really have to gut Social Security or Medicare. People just refuse to think outside the box. Just let in a wave of immigration to take care of the worker to recipient ratio.

 

[william the wie]

I'm 45 and I'm effectivey retired. I live off my capital investments and have been buying more real estate of late. I never really took SS seriously and still regard it only as gravy that's coming in 17 years or so.

Retiring early is easy. My wife an I saved at least 25% of our income every year. We paid off the mortgage ASAP. We made some good moves in the stock market, getting in and out of techs at the right time and investing heavilly in emerging markets, especially South Korea. We invested the max in series I bonds back in the late 90s and those puppies have been returning like 7.5% a year. We both have maxed out contributions to IRAs.

Next year my wife will be able to retire from her 20 hours a week at the hospital (she's a nurse) and we can buy into her union healthcare plan for like $70 a week.

Then we sit back, relax and live off the rentals till we can start collecting SS and withdrawing from the IRAs. If all works out as planned, i should be able to leave my sone line 3 million worth of real estate free and clear when I kick the bucket.

All that said, we don't really have to gut Social Security or Medicare. People just refuse to think outside the box. Just let in a wave of immigration to take care of the worker to recipient ratio.

I have long advocated a greencard auction to increase the quality of immigrants and reduce the xenophobia. A guy who puts up $xx K to get in here has committed to this country and is not trying to get rich and go home. That attitude is annoying.