Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[MarcATL]

What are the loons of the far right radical fringe, aka today's average Republican, going to do when Obama wins?

lol.

What. are. they. going. to. do?

i think what republicans will do depends on how obama wins - assuming he wins (which at the moment i still think he will)

Suppose he wins an electoral victory but loses the political war? By that i mean he gets 270 (270-290 is best case) but Romney gets a majority of the popular vote and maybe wins the popular vote by a fullpercent or even alittle more.

What does obama do then? Yes he has won the presdency but he has no ability even in the worlld of political BS to claim any type of vote in favor of his policies. To the contrary. The republicans will be able to claim very credibly that a few people in ohio and wisconsin may be able to decide who is the president but they dont speak for the electorate as to how they want the counrty governed. if anything such a mixed result will enable Republicans to say the vote was in support of their policies -- against taxes, obamacare etc.

As i said Obama will be president but there will be nothing in that kind of result that should tell Rebublicans they need to compromise with him. If anything such results would support the opposite conclusion

Meh... Bush lost the popular vote, probably lost Florida, was put in office by a court decision and lost control of the Senate. He STILL acted like he was the president and had a mandate to do things.

Since Republicans argued to the hilt that Bush was legitimate despite the fishy way he was elected, they really wouldn't have a leg to stand on if Romney won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.

Exactly. One of the many problems with the Republicans is that they ALWAYS act and govern as if they have some mandate. They ALWAYS overreach...always. They are sick w/power.

 

[Amazed]

i think what republicans will do depends on how obama wins - assuming he wins (which at the moment i still think he will)

Suppose he wins an electoral victory but loses the political war? By that i mean he gets 270 (270-290 is best case) but Romney gets a majority of the popular vote and maybe wins the popular vote by a fullpercent or even alittle more.

What does obama do then? Yes he has won the presdency but he has no ability even in the worlld of political BS to claim any type of vote in favor of his policies. To the contrary. The republicans will be able to claim very credibly that a few people in ohio and wisconsin may be able to decide who is the president but they dont speak for the electorate as to how they want the counrty governed. if anything such a mixed result will enable Republicans to say the vote was in support of their policies -- against taxes, obamacare etc.

As i said Obama will be president but there will be nothing in that kind of result that should tell Rebublicans they need to compromise with him. If anything such results would support the opposite conclusion

Meh... Bush lost the popular vote, probably lost Florida, was put in office by a court decision and lost control of the Senate. He STILL acted like he was the president and had a mandate to do things.

Since Republicans argued to the hilt that Bush was legitimate despite the fishy way he was elected, they really wouldn't have a leg to stand on if Romney won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.

Exactly. One of the many problems with the Republicans is that they ALWAYS act and govern as if they have some mandate. They ALWAYS overreach...always. They are sick w/power.

Hence AIDS and Crack eh Malcolm, we injected them into the black community, correct?

 

[Zander]

i think what republicans will do depends on how obama wins - assuming he wins (which at the moment i still think he will)

Suppose he wins an electoral victory but loses the political war? By that i mean he gets 270 (270-290 is best case) but Romney gets a majority of the popular vote and maybe wins the popular vote by a fullpercent or even alittle more.

What does obama do then? Yes he has won the presdency but he has no ability even in the worlld of political BS to claim any type of vote in favor of his policies. To the contrary. The republicans will be able to claim very credibly that a few people in ohio and wisconsin may be able to decide who is the president but they dont speak for the electorate as to how they want the counrty governed. if anything such a mixed result will enable Republicans to say the vote was in support of their policies -- against taxes, obamacare etc.

As i said Obama will be president but there will be nothing in that kind of result that should tell Rebublicans they need to compromise with him. If anything such results would support the opposite conclusion

Meh... Bush lost the popular vote, probably lost Florida, was put in office by a court decision and lost control of the Senate. He STILL acted like he was the president and had a mandate to do things.

Since Republicans argued to the hilt that Bush was legitimate despite the fishy way he was elected, they really wouldn't have a leg to stand on if Romney won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.

Exactly. One of the many problems with the Republicans is that they ALWAYS act and govern as if they have some mandate. They ALWAYS overreach...always. They are sick w/power.

We gonna put you back in chains!!!



I think I'd prefer being placed in real chains; over the chains the black community voluntarily dons when they support Democrats......Ya'll need to wake up!

 

[Old Rocks]

At present, I would say that the election is pretty much in the bag for the President. 300+ electorial votes, a weak + is my prediction.

Romney's statements on FEMA are returning to haunt him. In fact, the whole 'Conservative' spiel on disaster relief is looking luduicris in the light of the massive damage in this storm. And the sight of the President and state Governors working together nearly seamlessly definately is impressive.

 

[Amazed]

At present, I would say that the election is pretty much in the bag for the President. 300+ electorial votes, a weak + is my prediction.

Romney's statements on FEMA are returning to haunt him. In fact, the whole 'Conservative' spiel on disaster relief is looking luduicris in the light of the massive damage in this storm. And the sight of the President and state Governors working together nearly seamlessly definately is impressive.

Well of course except that nothing backs that up.

Carry on.

 

[Annie]

At present, I would say that the election is pretty much in the bag for the President. 300+ electorial votes, a weak + is my prediction.

Romney's statements on FEMA are returning to haunt him. In fact, the whole 'Conservative' spiel on disaster relief is looking luduicris in the light of the massive damage in this storm. And the sight of the President and state Governors working together nearly seamlessly definately is impressive.

Well of course except that nothing backs that up.

Carry on.

As someone said earlier, this will be a great post to refer back to on the 7th.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We still have a few days until the vote, but I heard this morning that the Romney camp may be thinking of shifting resources to Pennsylvania, if Ohio appears lost. Again, anything can happen at this point, but that comment caught me by surprise...

Silver's numbers have been going up and down. I expect to see the same in the coming days. This is still a very tight race.

There’s really nowhere for Romney to ‘shift resources,’ the president will win Pennsylvania, Ohio as well.

Remember also that the president had held consistent leads in most of the battleground states.

 

[buckeye45_73]

You guys kill me......signs.... in gay areas will have more obama support

And nytimes polls? Didnt they just endorse obama?

You seem to have this obsession with gays. Is that because you are a closet gay yourself? It seems that every other post you make has some reference to gays.

Nope, I just love how uncomfortable liberals are with gays, yet the love to promote their radical agenda.....it's quite funny

 

[buckeye45_73]

yeah Auditor, Romney never led in Ohio, except with Rassmussen..


How is he going to lead with +8% democrats? do you guys have any critical thinking skills?

 

[SniperFire]

Isn't Joe the one who tried the "Dear God" schtick? Yeah, real moderate there.

Anyway, I'll play. In 2008 FL was D+3; Quinnipiac has it D+7 this year. In 2008 Virginia was D+6; Quinnipiac has it D+8 this year. And finally, in 2008 Ohio was D+8; still a D+8. You believe that'll occur this year? Especially with Republicans far more enthusiastic this year than are Democrats?

Exactly. The turnout will be Republican +1 or so.

These polls assume the '08 'hopey changey' turnout.

Romney in a landslide.

 

[tinydancer]

It's tight. This is from the Plain Dealer right in Ohio. Polls are at the link. Most are all within the margin of error.

New polls show President Obama tied or slightly ahead in Ohio, Sherrod Brown doing better

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney's and President Barack Obama's campaigns both claim they will win Ohio, and either outcome is possible Nov. 6. Several polls released over the past few days suggest Obama is ahead, although still within the margin of error in several of the surveys.

New polls show President Obama tied or slightly ahead in Ohio, Sherrod Brown doing better | cleveland.com[/B]

 

[JimH52]

I expect that now that Obama has Governor Christie's support, he will begin to pull away.

 

[bripat9643]

A Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll? That's about as credible as Pravda was during the cold war.

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

 

[Nova78]

I live in Ohio and if signs are an indication...Obama is winning about 3 to 1.

Like Obama really gives a rats ass about Ohio ....

 

[JimH52]

How would Romney be crushing Obama in independents, which make up 1/3 of the electorate, but losing? The + Dem turnout would have to be huge and that's not gonna happen this year. Use some critical thinking when looking at these polls.

The pollsters are far better prepared to use "critical thinking" than any of us. This is their job, their profession, their livelihood. Numbers are being honeslty portrayed by people who are using math and science. Tuesday will tell the tale...

 

[Bigfoot]

Jim, it is likely that you are delusional.

 

[JimH52]

A Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll? That's about as credible as Pravda was during the cold war.

Polls Show Two Swing-State Dems Leading - Hotline On Call

Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe used the word "desperation" for the first time, since Willard won the first debate. I expect many of you to call him another Democratic Hack, but he is one of the more reasonable Republicans out there.

In Ohio, Brown leads GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 9 points: 51 percent support to Mandel's 42 percent. Mandel leads among independent voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. Their previous poll, conducted the week prior, also had the race at 51 percent to 42 percent.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the state. The poll was conducted Oct. 23-28 and surveyed 1,110 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in the same poll, with the president ahead, 48 percent to 47 percent. Mack has consistently underperformed Romney in public polling. The poll of 1,073 likely Florida voters was conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error for the survey is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac is well known for its accuracy.

OKAY, YOU CAN BEGIN TELLING ME THIS POLL IS SKEWED NOW!

Can't wait to find out how close they are? Can you?

 

[jillian]

This poll shows this. That poll shows that. We won't know untill next week.

Except when the polls are Gallup or Rasmussen

 

[JimH52]

Jim, it is likely that you are delusional.

You look at numbers by a reliable polling professional and you call me delusional...

Tuesday is coming...

 

[Bigfoot]

Jim, it is likely that you are delusional.

You look at numbers by a reliable polling professional and you call me delusional...

Tuesday is coming...

I think that you may be kidding yourself a bit. Yes Tuesday is coming and no matter how the election turns out Wednesday will be coming along shortly after and we will all still be putting one foot in front of the other grinding out a living. I'm not going to waste too much energy on worrying about how the election is going to turn out. I like Romney's message much more then Obama's more government message but either way my family and I will continue to enjoy life. I also hope that you and your family are safe, sound and happy.