RhodyPatriot
Diamond Member
- Aug 28, 2022
- 12,289
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So everyone, across the entire political spectrum, can generally concur upon one simple fact:
The polls are often wrong.
Where they frequently lose the plot (and by "they" I mean Leftists and Doomers) is that this does not mean we can't paint a pretty lucid picture of where things are headed.
And this is due to the plain truth that, despite an abundance of irregularities, there are also reliable trendlines that have been quite consistent ever since 2016 - as least as far as The Don's specific performance is concerned.
And that is polls perpetually underrate him.
CNN's Harry Enten knows it, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver recognizes it, and of course the Right leaning media sphere acknowledges it.
Trump always under polls.
So, how could we utilize this basic metric, to assist us in predicting a potential 2024 outcome?
Well, we could take the underestimations of 2020, and apply them to what they mean in terms of the '24 contest.
For example, let's take my Blue State of Rhode Island.
They originally estimated a Biden victory of 30 points.
His actual win?
17 points.
Hardly a tight race, but a significant deficit from how he was expected to perform.
Now, interestingly, Rhode Island hasn't been polled since October - but that poll showed Biden with an 18 point advantage.
But if one "course corrects" based on 2020 polling errors?
His lead is whittled down to a shockingly minimalist 5 points.
And this dynamic exists in virtually every single state.
In other words - across the board, even in states he won, Biden vastly underperformed his polling in 2020.
Of course, Leftists will scoff at this and dismiss it because they have to in order to get through their ennui-infested existences.
But this post is for the Doomers.
To impress upon you that this will be too big to rig - IF YOU VOTE.
If you don't?
You will have ushered in another four years of bumbling Biden and his communist clown show.
Act accordingly.
The polls are often wrong.
Where they frequently lose the plot (and by "they" I mean Leftists and Doomers) is that this does not mean we can't paint a pretty lucid picture of where things are headed.
And this is due to the plain truth that, despite an abundance of irregularities, there are also reliable trendlines that have been quite consistent ever since 2016 - as least as far as The Don's specific performance is concerned.
And that is polls perpetually underrate him.
CNN's Harry Enten knows it, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver recognizes it, and of course the Right leaning media sphere acknowledges it.
Trump always under polls.
So, how could we utilize this basic metric, to assist us in predicting a potential 2024 outcome?
Well, we could take the underestimations of 2020, and apply them to what they mean in terms of the '24 contest.
For example, let's take my Blue State of Rhode Island.
They originally estimated a Biden victory of 30 points.
His actual win?
17 points.
Hardly a tight race, but a significant deficit from how he was expected to perform.
Now, interestingly, Rhode Island hasn't been polled since October - but that poll showed Biden with an 18 point advantage.
But if one "course corrects" based on 2020 polling errors?
His lead is whittled down to a shockingly minimalist 5 points.
And this dynamic exists in virtually every single state.
In other words - across the board, even in states he won, Biden vastly underperformed his polling in 2020.
Of course, Leftists will scoff at this and dismiss it because they have to in order to get through their ennui-infested existences.
But this post is for the Doomers.
To impress upon you that this will be too big to rig - IF YOU VOTE.
If you don't?
You will have ushered in another four years of bumbling Biden and his communist clown show.
Act accordingly.
