GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014

[JakeStarkey]

I don't see either chamber changing hands in '14. House stays red, Senate stays blue.

That will be the outcome if there are any more HuckFuck outbreaks of the mouth.

 

[Redfish]

I don't see either chamber changing hands in '14. House stays red, Senate stays blue.

That will be the outcome if there are any more HuckFuck outbreaks of the mouth.

we all know that complete dem control of the government is what you want, jake.

its no secret who and what you are.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I don't see either chamber changing hands in '14. House stays red, Senate stays blue.

That will be the outcome if there are any more HuckFuck outbreaks of the mouth.

we all know that complete dem control of the government is what you want, jake.

its no secret who and what you are.

You can't even tell time much figure out what someone else wants, Redfish.

The mainstream GOP wants to win, and your way has failed. Huh.

 

[bendog]

Well if the gop's plan is the Hatch proposal to tax my HC benefits as income to pay for Obamacare light, I think I'll be avoiding the R guys.

So, I'm not really convinced the mainstream of the gop has anything beneficial to offer the middle class. It may actually be that bad.

 

[billyerock1991]

Well if the gop's plan is the Hatch proposal to tax my HC benefits as income to pay for Obamacare light, I think I'll be avoiding the R guys.

So, I'm not really convinced the mainstream of the gop has anything beneficial to offer the middle class. It may actually be that bad.

glad to see some body is paying attention ...

 

[billyerock1991]

The Tea Party movement is the reason why Republicans will never put forth a workable Healthcare alternative. The TeaTards will fight anyone who proposes a universal healthcare plan....so will rightwing talk radio

Universal healthcare i.e. socialized medicine----------is NOT the answer, ask the Brits or Canadians------it sucks.

Neither the Brits or Canadian would agree to our system of healthcare

actually I have asked them ... my very first girl friend lives in Canada ..she and her husband, US citizens, retired their because of the health care ... she has serious medical issues and she said one of the reason she and her husband didn't come back to the states was nobody would insure them at the time.... she loves it ... in England one of the guys that I work here with on recordings artist, he goes back to England every year because that's where he gets all of his medical issues taken care of... he too loves it .. the people I personally know they both love their health care ... strait from the horses mouth ....

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The Republicans should take back the Senate unless they nominate another Todd Akin or Christine "I'm Not a Witch" McDonnell

 

[The2ndAmendment]

America is sick of Teddy Cruzer and friends shutting down the Government.

R.I.P. GOP 2014 midterms.

???

Ted Cruz did a single unofficial filibuster, meanwhile your Democrat thugs have the Senate and the White House.

If you're blaming a single man, for a single event that had no legal result, in the minority sect of a minority party --- you are sir are delusional.

Also, anyway flying the Gay colors with the Islamic colors is delusional to being with.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

 

[RandomVariable]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Ha ha you suck. Kidding. Thought you might find this interesting.
Republicans have a 44% chance of taking the Senate. But it may be much higher.

As is noted in the article your number is fully justified. Your method seems to be more intuitive than theirs and perhaps better in that aspect. The GOP isn't getting or keeping either but don't me ruin the speculating fun.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Ha ha you suck. Kidding. Thought you might find this interesting.
Republicans have a 44% chance of taking the Senate. But it may be much higher.

As is noted in the article your number is fully justified. Your method seems to be more intuitive than theirs and perhaps better in that aspect. The GOP isn't getting or keeping either but don't me ruin the speculating fun.

That's an interesting approach, but if we gave Pryor a 25% chance of reelection as opposed to that study's 75%, the results would be pretty similar to mine. Pryor's down significantly in the polls, and he is the only member of Congress(House or Senate) in Arkansas who is a Democrat. Historical precedent doesn't work well in a state which has just recently trended very Republican.

 

[rightwinger]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Six seats is tough, but I think 50% may be about right for now

Problem is, nobody is actively campaigning and the lights are not on. Once Republican candidates are given a chance to touch the third rail, they can't pass it up

My money says Democrats take 51 seats

 

[RandomVariable]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Ha ha you suck. Kidding. Thought you might find this interesting.
Republicans have a 44% chance of taking the Senate. But it may be much higher.

As is noted in the article your number is fully justified. Your method seems to be more intuitive than theirs and perhaps better in that aspect. The GOP isn't getting or keeping either but don't me ruin the speculating fun.

That's an interesting approach, but if we gave Pryor a 25% chance of reelection as opposed to that study's 75%, the results would be pretty similar to mine. Pryor's down significantly in the polls, and he is the only member of Congress(House or Senate) in Arkansas who is a Democrat. Historical precedent doesn't work well in a state which has just recently trended very Republican.

I fully agree which why I give your number the nod. Trends can produce a straight line but with the length of their span there could be several cycles within there. Like a sine wave there is a center line it but could oscillate greatly. Considering that your conclusion suggests the tangent is in the conservative direction which I don't think the mood of the country bears out.

 

[RandomVariable]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Six seats is tough, but I think 50% may be about right for now

Problem is, nobody is actively campaigning and the lights are not on. Once Republican candidates are given a chance to touch the third rail, they can't pass it up

My money says Democrats take 51 seats

Not exactly true. The early money is in and the early money is from the right wing PACs. Bring out your crazy! Bring out your crazy!

 

[Toro]

In the long history of the last two Senatorial elections, I expect the Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating some candidate conservatives love who will say something retarded in the general election and lose an otherwise very winnable race.

 

[Antares]

Antares is just pissed his industry is killing the golden goose. Tuff that.

LOL, I'm not pissed about anything, you have me confused with you jake...you on the other hand are angry at everything...look I'm sorry your life sucks.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Six seats is tough, but I think 50% may be about right for now

Problem is, nobody is actively campaigning and the lights are not on. Once Republican candidates are given a chance to touch the third rail, they can't pass it up

My money says Democrats take 51 seats

Pick ups in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana are almost a done deal at this point, unless the GOP finds a way to screw one of those up with some stupid sound byte. That's three of the six seats they need right there. Defeating incumbents in both Arkansas and North Carolina is looking very good at this point. That's two more. They then only need to win one of the following: Louisiana, Alaska, New Hampshire, Iowa, or Michigan. The Republican candidate in Michigan has been polling slightly ahead of the Democrat.

I agree with the 60% prediction at this point in time, but there is plenty of time for dynamics to shift.

 

[Nyvin]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Six seats is tough, but I think 50% may be about right for now

Problem is, nobody is actively campaigning and the lights are not on. Once Republican candidates are given a chance to touch the third rail, they can't pass it up

My money says Democrats take 51 seats

Pick ups in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana are almost a done deal at this point, unless the GOP finds a way to screw one of those up with some stupid sound byte. That's three of the six seats they need right there. Defeating incumbents in both Arkansas and North Carolina is looking very good at this point. That's two more. They then only need to win one of the following: Louisiana, Alaska, New Hampshire, Iowa, or Michigan. The Republican candidate in Michigan has been polling slightly ahead of the Democrat.

I agree with the 60% prediction at this point in time, but there is plenty of time for dynamics to shift.

It's totally reasonable to expect the three open seats to go to the GOP, they are red states in a midterm election that are all open seats. Thats about as favorable of a pickup that you could possibly get in the GOP. Also the GOP has solid candidates in West Virginia and Montana, being House Reps from the states, Steve Daines in Montana is also popular in the state.

Arkansas and North Carolina aren't "looking good". Arkansas is a toss-up, nearly every polling has it as toss up. North Carolina is leaning democrat, Kay Hagan is beating all "seven" GOP candidates, plus the GOP primary is almost certainly going to be bloody and expensive, probably will leave whoever the winner is pretty knocked up and broke.

Also the races in Kentucky and Georgia could certainly be won by the Democrats, Georgia in particular. It's looking like the Tea Party will flop that race for the GOP more and more. Even just 1 pickup for the democrats could keep the majority for them.

I strongly expect the absolute max the GOP's majority will be is 52 Senators. Note that's the Max...something in the range of 48-51 is probably more likely.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Antares is just pissed his industry is killing the golden goose. Tuff that.

LOL, I'm not pissed about anything, you have me confused with you jake...you on the other hand are angry at everything...look I'm sorry your life sucks.

Not at all. I signed a fat contract for product work today. Consulting is great when one is retired. One are you going to get to retire?

 

[JakeStarkey]

No liberal here is disputing my spreadsheets or probability simulations.

Not one has poked even the smallest hole in my methodology. I think that's worth pointing out. I'd like to see them construct their own probability simulations before saying "Ha ha you suck".

Spreadsheets and probability papers can be used in the bathroom if Christine the Witch or Sharon the Edge or a Joe Miller is running for the Senate.

Run your spreads again after primaries, and you might have a point then.