GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014

[Nyvin]

Depends largely on how well the GOP candidates can do against the Dem incumbents in states like Arkansas, North Carolina, and Alaska.

Usually incumbents have a big advantage, even if it's just 1 term incumbents. Except for some scandal ridden senator or something.

 

[American4Americ]

Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.

Hey left wing fascist, did you know that the REAL data says that there is a 100% chance of taking the senate back?

 

[JakeStarkey]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014 only if it moderates its tone and reaches out sincerely to women, minorities, and immigrants

 

[zeke]

If Americans really, REALLY want to see a fucked up country, they will return control of the Senate to Repubs. Who cares really. You rethugs want to give all the money to the ultra rich. Fuck it. Do it.

There is one thing more important than the vaunted "freedom" that rethugs sling around like horse shit.

That one thing is "survival". Turn the entire country over to Rethugs.

I will still survive.

 

[TakeAStepBack]

If Americans really, REALLY want to see a fucked up country, they will return control of the Senate to Repubs. Who cares really. You rethugs want to give all the money to the ultra rich. Fuck it. Do it.

There is one thing more important than the vaunted "freedom" that rethugs sling around like horse shit.

That one thing is "survival". Turn the entire country over to Rethugs.

I will still survive.

You wont survive long without those meds you forgot to take.

 

[rightwinger]

The Republicans should have easily taken the Senate in the last two cycles and shot themselves in the foot

To take 6 seats this time, I give them about a 50% chance. But what are they going to run on?

1. Their achievements?
2. The economy?
3. Taking away peoples Health Insurance?

 

[JakeStarkey]

The Republicans should have easily taken the Senate in the last two cycles and shot themselves in the foot

To take 6 seats this time, I give them about a 50% chance. But what are they going to run on?

1. Their achievements?
2. The economy?
3. Taking away peoples Health Insurance?

We can win it as long as we don't have Sharon Angles or Joe Millers or other wackos running.

 

[rightwinger]

The Republicans should have easily taken the Senate in the last two cycles and shot themselves in the foot

To take 6 seats this time, I give them about a 50% chance. But what are they going to run on?

1. Their achievements?
2. The economy?
3. Taking away peoples Health Insurance?

We can win it as long as we don't have Sharon Angles or Joe Millers or other wackos running.

I honestly think the GOP will be too smart to allow another raging TeaTard (I am not a witch) to run

Next step....avoid third rail issues

- Banning abortion in cases of rape
- Gay Marriage
- Birth Control
- Any mention of Sharia Law
- Calling your opponent a socialist, communist, Nazi or Un-American

 

[freedombecki]

They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.

Demmie omeurta cheating the polls again?

 

[hangover]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014

Just what America needs, a whole senate of thugs like Grimm. Can you say fascist U.S.?

 

[billyerock1991]

Yes, the Right, including Mitt, were convinced he was winning in 2012.

its their polling they call republican known strong holds then say see we have a better chance in winning ...when even McConnell is running for his life in this next election ... that's what funny .... here is this republicans idiot who said he will vote against everything obama is for Obama and now he has fuck his on chance for reelection ... all the republicans here think they have a chance in hell, just like Romney did, I said it then and I will say it now ... the dems will take over the house and keep the senate its that simple ... Where the republicans will have melt down ...

 

[JakeStarkey]

And the liberals are generally talking stupidly today.

 

[SwimExpert]

They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.

Bookmarked.

 

[rightwinger]

If the Republicans want to take the Senate in 2014 they need to abolish the term RINO

 

[SwimExpert]

The real RINOs/CINOs are the tea party loons.

 

[007]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014 only if it moderates its tone and reaches out sincerely to women, minorities, and immigrants

That's the same lame SHIT they told Romney. How did that work out again? Oh yeah, that's right, HE LOST.

Republicans ONLY chance is to GET BACK TO IT'S ROOTS and STOP acting like DEMOCRAT LITE!

Without the conservative vote, NO republican EVER stands a chance of being elected.

I know there are leftists like you pretending to be a republican infecting boards everywhere, farkey, spreading that bull shit in hopes that you can persuade some low information voter to believe it. Well, those of us TRUE conservatives know very well... YOU, ARE FULL OF SHIT.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

If the Republicans want to take the Senate in 2014 they need to abolish the term RINO

For any state with a PVI of less than R + 10, I agree. There are a few Senators who are too liberal for Republicans given their state(Mississippi and South Carolina come to mind), but the #1 priority should be removing Democrats from office. Every single GOPer in the Senate is more conservative than every Democrat. Every replacement we get is golden for us.

 

[007]

If the Republicans want to take the Senate in 2014 they need to abolish the term RINO

Pfft... all they need to do is keep their mouths shut about everything but OBAMACARE, and they'll retake the senate with ease.

obamacare ALONE will sink the majority of dems, because THEY ALL VOTED FOR IT.

 

[JakeStarkey]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014 only if it moderates its tone and reaches out sincerely to women, minorities, and immigrants

That's the same lame SHIT they told Romney. How did that work out again? Oh yeah, that's right, HE LOST.

Romney attacked many of this group as you well know and lost.

No Republican candidate can without the middle and the con votes. The con votes won't do it, there are not just enough of them anymore.

If we have to give up the far right to get what we need and more from the sane Americans, so be it.

 

[rightwinger]

If the Republicans want to take the Senate in 2014 they need to abolish the term RINO

Pfft... all they need to do is keep their mouths shut about everything but OBAMACARE, and they'll retake the senate with ease.

obamacare ALONE will sink the majority of dems, because THEY ALL VOTED FOR IT.

Not really

Because they will be running on taking away health insurance from people covered under Obamacare and offering nothing better to replace it

Are Republicans going to run on denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions?