GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014

[Antares]

Not really

Because they will be running on taking away health insurance from people covered under Obamacare and offering nothing better to replace it

Are Republicans going to run on denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions?

They do have a better plan, it will be introduced next week. NO ONE will be denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions--------will you ever stop lying?

speaking of taking away insurance--------obamacare has already taken insurance from 5 million and will take it from up to 100 million if the employer mandate is allowed to kick in.

We have seen the Republican shell game with Health Insurance Plans in the 90s

Cancel your plan and we will come up with a better plan....trust us

If the Republicans are going to ensure that people with pre-existing conditions are covered, how are they going to pay for it?
Obmacare used the mandate that Republicans hate....how do Republicans do it?

Uhhhh no.

The Senate voted 98-0 against Hillary Care.

 

[rightwinger]

They do have a better plan, it will be introduced next week. NO ONE will be denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions--------will you ever stop lying?

speaking of taking away insurance--------obamacare has already taken insurance from 5 million and will take it from up to 100 million if the employer mandate is allowed to kick in.

We have seen the Republican shell game with Health Insurance Plans in the 90s

Cancel your plan and we will come up with a better plan....trust us

If the Republicans are going to ensure that people with pre-existing conditions are covered, how are they going to pay for it?
Obmacare used the mandate that Republicans hate....how do Republicans do it?

Uhhhh no.

The Senate voted 98-0 against Hillary Care.

And Republicans offered an alternative (surprisingly similar to Obamacare) if Hillarycare was killed

Once Healthcare was killed, they made sure it didn't come up again

 

[rightwinger]

As much as you wish it was, the tea party movement is not tainted, it is strong and growing every day.

sound fiscal policy, smaller less intrusive government, individual freedom, lower taxes, sane international policy, balanced budgets are mainstream values and views.

the Tea party movement is real america, you and your left wing socialist cronies are not.

The Tea Party movement is the reason why Republicans will never put forth a workable Healthcare alternative. The TeaTards will fight anyone who proposes a universal healthcare plan....so will rightwing talk radio

Universal healthcare i.e. socialized medicine----------is NOT the answer, ask the Brits or Canadians------it sucks.

Neither the Brits or Canadian would agree to our system of healthcare

 

[JakeStarkey]

As much as you wish it was, the tea party movement is not tainted, it is strong and growing every day.

sound fiscal policy, smaller less intrusive government, individual freedom, lower taxes, sane international policy, balanced budgets are mainstream values and views.

the Tea party movement is real america, you and your left wing socialist cronies are not.

The Tea Party movement is the reason why Republicans will never put forth a workable Healthcare alternative. The TeaTards will fight anyone who proposes a universal healthcare plan....so will rightwing talk radio

Universal healthcare i.e. socialized medicine----------is NOT the answer, ask the Brits or Canadians------it sucks.

That's why they overwhelmingly support it? It sucks?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Antares is just pissed his industry is killing the golden goose. Tuff that.

 

[Duped]

America is sick of Teddy Cruzer and friends shutting down the Government.

R.I.P. GOP 2014 midterms.

Drop the Hazl - keep the nut! Obama shut the government down by refusing to negociate.

If the sick ass liberals lose the Senate, it will be great! I don't think the they can appreciate the disgust the American people have for Obamacare, and by the way it was underhandedly thrust upon them. The more voters lose their coverages, or have to pay extortionate increases for lesser policies, the more they will take it out on the liberals in 14!

 

[bendog]

United States Senate elections, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2014 doesn't really matter because the dems will still have the veto power. If Hill wins 330 EVs, the dems will control the sup ct for a decade.

 

[oreo]

Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.

If you can get the far right social nut-cases out of the process--that only want to talk about abortion--birth control pills--rape victims and what they should and should not do--while bashing gays--Republicans would easily win back the senate--gain seats in the house--and take the Presidency in 2016.

 

[bendog]

Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.

If you can get the far right social nut-cases out of the process--that only want to talk about abortion--birth control pills--rape victims and what they should and should not do--while bashing gays--Republicans would easily win back the senate--gain seats in the house--and take the Presidency in 2016.

Possibly, but the Duck Dynasty Dynamos may be the party's base, now.

 

[bripat9643]

We have seen the Republican shell game with Health Insurance Plans in the 90s

Cancel your plan and we will come up with a better plan....trust us

If the Republicans are going to ensure that people with pre-existing conditions are covered, how are they going to pay for it?
Obmacare used the mandate that Republicans hate....how do Republicans do it?

Uhhhh no.

The Senate voted 98-0 against Hillary Care.

And Republicans offered an alternative (surprisingly similar to Obamacare) if Hillarycare was killed

Once Healthcare was killed, they made sure it didn't come up again

As a result, we had 20 more years of prosperity.

 

[Sarah G]

They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.

If we can find a way to get passed districting, we'll be good. Although we did turn Va from red to Blue.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.

If you can get the far right social nut-cases out of the process--that only want to talk about abortion--birth control pills--rape victims and what they should and should not do--while bashing gays--Republicans would easily win back the senate--gain seats in the house--and take the Presidency in 2016.

Just so.

 

[JakeStarkey]

They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.

If we can find a way to get passed districting, we'll be good. Although we did turn Va from red to Blue.

Even if you don't do a thing while the GOP are not reaching out to women, minorities, and immigrants, Texas and some of the southern states will move to Blue by 2020.

 

[g5000]

I would put it at 90%

As would anyone else who lives in the Land of Magical Thinking.

 

[bendog]

They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.

If we can find a way to get passed districting, we'll be good. Although we did turn Va from red to Blue.

Even if you don't do a thing while the GOP are not reaching out to women, minorities, and immigrants, Texas and some of the southern states will move to Blue by 2020.

No diss intended, because "gop reach out" is the catch phrase de jour, but the relevancy of a right to center party doens't depend on reach out as much as just alienating them for no damn good reason. We've used public dollars for decades to help make contraception affordable to women because that is the fiscally conservative thing to do as unplanned pregnancies tend to be costly. We've used illegal immigrants for decades to harvest our cheap fruits and veggies and slaughter our meat supply.

Reach out implies, to me, that we only need to fine tune our message. We're whistling fking Dixie in the dark.

 

[RandomVariable]

Name one time in which at the 6th year of an incumbent president, the opposing party has lost a chamber. Hint: it's never happened.

Also: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 House

We've never had a black President and a Tea Party extreme manipulated by Koch bros.

It's time to break precedent.

OMG, are you really that stupid?

obama is half black, his mother was as white as Ann Coulter

The tea party is not controlled by the Koch brothers, where do you get this shit?

BTW, which party is controlled and funded by Soros?

Brendan DeMelle: Study Confirms Tea Party Was Created by Big Tobacco and Billionaire Koch Brothers

A new academic study confirms that front groups with longstanding ties to the tobacco industry and the billionaire Koch brothers planned the formation of the Tea Party movement more than a decade before it exploded onto the U.S. political scene.

Far from a genuine grassroots uprising, this astroturf effort was curated by wealthy industrialists years in advance. Many of the anti-science operatives who defended cigarettes are currently deploying their tobacco-inspired playbook internationally to evade accountability for the fossil fuel industry's role in driving climate disruption.

The study, funded by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institute of Health, traces the roots of the Tea Party's anti-tax movement back to the early 1980s when tobacco companies began to invest in third party groups to fight excise taxes on cigarettes, as well as health studies finding a link between cancer and secondhand cigarette smoke.

 

[RandomVariable]

The biggest challenge the Democrats have is getting mainstream media to report that there really is a difference between the parties in Congress. The prime example is the unemployment insurance extension. Besides one Senator, a straight party vote, Republicans against. If anyone can find a single media source that reported it as such I would like to see it.

 

[RandomVariable]

I thought that the Rep. Rodgers came on really heavy with the religious message. Is the Republican party going to run on 'Protect God' for the midterm? Would it be a winning strategy to taking back the Senate?

 

[candycorn]

I would put it at 90%

As would anyone else who lives in the Land of Magical Thinking.

I am the first to say that I hope I am wrong.

 

[baker001]

I don't see either chamber changing hands in '14. House stays red, Senate stays blue.