GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014

Hoosier4Liberty

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Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.
 

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Hoosier4Liberty

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I would put it at 90%
My probabilities factor in the fact that the candidate could Akin or Mourdock himself with a stupid comment. For instance, if the election were held today, polling shows that Kay Hagan and Mark Pryor would both get crushed. However, I'm giving them 40% and 25% chances respectively of holding on due to the possibility of their opponents saying something stupid or some unforeseen event.
 

candycorn

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I would put it at 90%
My probabilities factor in the fact that the candidate could Akin or Mourdock himself with a stupid comment. For instance, if the election were held today, polling shows that Kay Hagan and Mark Pryor would both get crushed. However, I'm giving them 40% and 25% chances respectively of holding on due to the possibility of their opponents saying something stupid or some unforeseen event.
The US electorate have a very long tradition of "rewarding" the party not in the Oval at the midterm. When you mix that in with the Dems having more seats to defend; the GOP should at least get 51 Senators.
 

HenryBHough

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Too many variables to reliably predict.

For example, is it really impossible that, by executive order, there may be NO elections for congress in 2014?

No, really????
 

hazlnut

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America is sick of Teddy Cruzer and friends shutting down the Government.

R.I.P. GOP 2014 midterms.
 

Political Junky

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Yes, the Right, including Mitt, were convinced he was winning in 2012.
 

hazlnut

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Hoosier4Liberty

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They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.
Name one time in which at the 6th year of an incumbent president, the opposing party has lost a chamber. Hint: it's never happened.

Also: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 House

We've never had a black President and a Tea Party extreme manipulated by Koch bros.

It's time to break precedent.
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2014 Generic Congressional Vote

The polls say otherwise. Only Rasmussen, notoriously unreliable, has the Dems up in the generic ballot(Rassy used to bias R until Scott left; now it's biased D).
 

bripat9643

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I would put it at 90%
My probabilities factor in the fact that the candidate could Akin or Mourdock himself with a stupid comment. For instance, if the election were held today, polling shows that Kay Hagan and Mark Pryor would both get crushed. However, I'm giving them 40% and 25% chances respectively of holding on due to the possibility of their opponents saying something stupid or some unforeseen event.
Never discount the ability of the Republican Party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
 

Interpol

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According to the right-wing spreadsheets, President Romney had a pretty terrific first year in office, too.

Voters are more careful when it comes to electing Senators.

A Todd Akin type can get elected to the House, but not so much the Senate, and as long as the Republicans keep putting up weirdos like him who say things that gross women out, I just don't see how the GOP will take back the Senate this year.

You need to sound like a reasonable person to voters and Republicans don't these days, so we'll have to see what happens when the late summer and early fall comes around for all these Tea Party weirdos to step on every rake in the yard and to lose these races all by their own dumb selves.
 

007

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America is sick of Teddy Cruzer and friends shutting down the Government.

R.I.P. GOP 2014 midterms.
I know saying that makes you feel good, but your lies as well as obama's don't make anyone else feel good. It just makes you sound like the bubble headed moron you are.

This is what people are really sick of...

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg9m1F8B2_c]65 Outrageous Lies by President Obama - YouTube[/ame]

 
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R.D.

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They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.
Name one time in which at the 6th year of an incumbent president, the opposing party has lost a chamber. Hint: it's never happened.

Also: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 House

We've never had a black President and a Tea Party extreme manipulated by Koch bros.

It's time to break precedent.
Yeah, race and hate gave us gridlock

Time for the cyclical fix
 

racewright

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They ain't even going to hold the House.

It's over Johnny B.
Name one time in which at the 6th year of an incumbent president, the opposing party has lost a chamber. Hint: it's never happened.

Also: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2014 House

We've never had a black President and a Tea Party extreme manipulated by Koch bros.

It's time to break precedent.
You have it wrong--Because of Obama is the reason Dems will lose the senate unless the left runs more blacks against the republicans. Will not mater his policy only that he is black
racism is in control of all things in todays politics.
 

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