GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014

[HenryBHough]

Is it at all surprising that a closet Democrat (borderline Marxist?)^^^ might respond that way?

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Six seats is tough, but I think 50% may be about right for now

Problem is, nobody is actively campaigning and the lights are not on. Once Republican candidates are given a chance to touch the third rail, they can't pass it up

My money says Democrats take 51 seats

Pick ups in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana are almost a done deal at this point, unless the GOP finds a way to screw one of those up with some stupid sound byte. That's three of the six seats they need right there. Defeating incumbents in both Arkansas and North Carolina is looking very good at this point. That's two more. They then only need to win one of the following: Louisiana, Alaska, New Hampshire, Iowa, or Michigan. The Republican candidate in Michigan has been polling slightly ahead of the Democrat.

I agree with the 60% prediction at this point in time, but there is plenty of time for dynamics to shift.

It's totally reasonable to expect the three open seats to go to the GOP, they are red states in a midterm election that are all open seats. Thats about as favorable of a pickup that you could possibly get in the GOP. Also the GOP has solid candidates in West Virginia and Montana, being House Reps from the states, Steve Daines in Montana is also popular in the state.

Arkansas and North Carolina aren't "looking good". Arkansas is a toss-up, nearly every polling has it as toss up. North Carolina is leaning democrat, Kay Hagan is beating all "seven" GOP candidates, plus the GOP primary is almost certainly going to be bloody and expensive, probably will leave whoever the winner is pretty knocked up and broke.

Also the races in Kentucky and Georgia could certainly be won by the Democrats, Georgia in particular. It's looking like the Tea Party will flop that race for the GOP more and more. Even just 1 pickup for the democrats could keep the majority for them.

I strongly expect the absolute max the GOP's majority will be is 52 Senators. Note that's the Max...something in the range of 48-51 is probably more likely.

Kay Hagan is TRAILING all her opponents.
Public Policy Polling: Kay Hagan
Election 2014: North Carolina Senate - Rasmussen Reports?

KY/GA are unlikely but possible for Dems.

 

[JakeStarkey]

HBH has trouble telling a boy scout from a Hitler Youth from a Red Pioneer.

When the primaries are over and the final set of candidates are selected, the thinking public can pay attention to Hoosier4Liberty's stats and probability tables. Once again, the TPM candidates are the jokers in the desk.

 

[HenryBHough]

That may be true. But I have no trouble telling a closet Marxist from a mere RINO.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yes, you are a RINO of the far right reactionary order.

I am a mainstream Republican that some how you freaks believe are commie democrat Marxist pinko junior lenins. Grow up.

 

[HenryBHough]

Nope.

Proven a thousand times over. Started out as a "moderate" Republican, progressed to RINO, and finally emerged as a closet Marxist. When's the coming out party?

Yurt?

Far too kind; far too gentle.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Six seats is tough, but I think 50% may be about right for now

Problem is, nobody is actively campaigning and the lights are not on. Once Republican candidates are given a chance to touch the third rail, they can't pass it up

My money says Democrats take 51 seats

Pick ups in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana are almost a done deal at this point, unless the GOP finds a way to screw one of those up with some stupid sound byte. That's three of the six seats they need right there. Defeating incumbents in both Arkansas and North Carolina is looking very good at this point. That's two more. They then only need to win one of the following: Louisiana, Alaska, New Hampshire, Iowa, or Michigan. The Republican candidate in Michigan has been polling slightly ahead of the Democrat.

I agree with the 60% prediction at this point in time, but there is plenty of time for dynamics to shift.

It's totally reasonable to expect the three open seats to go to the GOP, they are red states in a midterm election that are all open seats. Thats about as favorable of a pickup that you could possibly get in the GOP. Also the GOP has solid candidates in West Virginia and Montana, being House Reps from the states, Steve Daines in Montana is also popular in the state.

Arkansas and North Carolina aren't "looking good". Arkansas is a toss-up, nearly every polling has it as toss up. North Carolina is leaning democrat, Kay Hagan is beating all "seven" GOP candidates, plus the GOP primary is almost certainly going to be bloody and expensive, probably will leave whoever the winner is pretty knocked up and broke.

Also the races in Kentucky and Georgia could certainly be won by the Democrats, Georgia in particular. It's looking like the Tea Party will flop that race for the GOP more and more. Even just 1 pickup for the democrats could keep the majority for them.

I strongly expect the absolute max the GOP's majority will be is 52 Senators. Note that's the Max...something in the range of 48-51 is probably more likely.

North Carolina is not leaning Democrat. Hagan has been losing more ground with each poll. She's now losing to two of her potential opponents, one of them outside the margin of error. Pryor could hang on, but given what happened to Lincoln in 2010, I don't think things will go in his favor in the end.

Kentucky and Georgia could go Dem, but I just don't see it happening, not in a mid term election when the political winds are looking to favor the opposition party. Believe me, I would love to see McConnell lose, but they couldn't knock him off in 2008 during the Obama wave, so I just don't see if happening in a year that will be far more favorable to the GOP, even if it is short of expectations.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Nope.

Proven a thousand times over. Started out as a "moderate" Republican, progressed to RINO, and finally emerged as a closet Marxist. When's the coming out party?

Yurt?

Far too kind; far too gentle.

Yurt just Yurtles, gets his feelings hurt because he can't take what he dishes out.

You, Henry, are getting better at it. You don't whine as much.

 

[HenryBHough]

Now let's see.....what will be shakey's next step once he out-Marxes Karl? I can't see "him" as a Stalin - far too skinny.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Now let's see.....what will be shakey's next step once he out-Marxes Karl? I can't see "him" as a Stalin - far too skinny.

While I do think Jake is a fake GOPer, he's not a Marxist. He's just a big-government liberal slightly less socialist than Obama.

 

[Nyvin]

Pick ups in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana are almost a done deal at this point, unless the GOP finds a way to screw one of those up with some stupid sound byte. That's three of the six seats they need right there. Defeating incumbents in both Arkansas and North Carolina is looking very good at this point. That's two more. They then only need to win one of the following: Louisiana, Alaska, New Hampshire, Iowa, or Michigan. The Republican candidate in Michigan has been polling slightly ahead of the Democrat.

I agree with the 60% prediction at this point in time, but there is plenty of time for dynamics to shift.

It's totally reasonable to expect the three open seats to go to the GOP, they are red states in a midterm election that are all open seats. Thats about as favorable of a pickup that you could possibly get in the GOP. Also the GOP has solid candidates in West Virginia and Montana, being House Reps from the states, Steve Daines in Montana is also popular in the state.

Arkansas and North Carolina aren't "looking good". Arkansas is a toss-up, nearly every polling has it as toss up. North Carolina is leaning democrat, Kay Hagan is beating all "seven" GOP candidates, plus the GOP primary is almost certainly going to be bloody and expensive, probably will leave whoever the winner is pretty knocked up and broke.

Also the races in Kentucky and Georgia could certainly be won by the Democrats, Georgia in particular. It's looking like the Tea Party will flop that race for the GOP more and more. Even just 1 pickup for the democrats could keep the majority for them.

I strongly expect the absolute max the GOP's majority will be is 52 Senators. Note that's the Max...something in the range of 48-51 is probably more likely.

North Carolina is not leaning Democrat. Hagan has been losing more ground with each poll. She's now losing to two of her potential opponents, one of them outside the margin of error. Pryor could hang on, but given what happened to Lincoln in 2010, I don't think things will go in his favor in the end.

Kentucky and Georgia could go Dem, but I just don't see it happening, not in a mid term election when the political winds are looking to favor the opposition party. Believe me, I would love to see McConnell lose, but they couldn't knock him off in 2008 during the Obama wave, so I just don't see if happening in a year that will be far more favorable to the GOP, even if it is short of expectations.

McConnell does have huge funding, something like 17 million right now. Plus outside groups are probably going to spend double that in favor of him. Money will probably buy him the election, sadly.

Georgia is more a real deal for the Dems. Although Hagan has dropped recently I don't expect it to be long lasting.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

It's totally reasonable to expect the three open seats to go to the GOP, they are red states in a midterm election that are all open seats. Thats about as favorable of a pickup that you could possibly get in the GOP. Also the GOP has solid candidates in West Virginia and Montana, being House Reps from the states, Steve Daines in Montana is also popular in the state.

Arkansas and North Carolina aren't "looking good". Arkansas is a toss-up, nearly every polling has it as toss up. North Carolina is leaning democrat, Kay Hagan is beating all "seven" GOP candidates, plus the GOP primary is almost certainly going to be bloody and expensive, probably will leave whoever the winner is pretty knocked up and broke.

Also the races in Kentucky and Georgia could certainly be won by the Democrats, Georgia in particular. It's looking like the Tea Party will flop that race for the GOP more and more. Even just 1 pickup for the democrats could keep the majority for them.

I strongly expect the absolute max the GOP's majority will be is 52 Senators. Note that's the Max...something in the range of 48-51 is probably more likely.

North Carolina is not leaning Democrat. Hagan has been losing more ground with each poll. She's now losing to two of her potential opponents, one of them outside the margin of error. Pryor could hang on, but given what happened to Lincoln in 2010, I don't think things will go in his favor in the end.

Kentucky and Georgia could go Dem, but I just don't see it happening, not in a mid term election when the political winds are looking to favor the opposition party. Believe me, I would love to see McConnell lose, but they couldn't knock him off in 2008 during the Obama wave, so I just don't see if happening in a year that will be far more favorable to the GOP, even if it is short of expectations.

McConnell does have huge funding, something like 17 million right now. Plus outside groups are probably going to spend double that in favor of him. Money will probably buy him the election, sadly.

Georgia is more a real deal for the Dems. Although Hagan has dropped recently I don't expect it to be long lasting.

Recent polling in Georgia does worry me, but I think the PPP poll, which shows R/D at the same %s, it a bit skewed. Hagan's in deep trouble due to Obamacare. Tillis is up 7. It's hard to make up such a deficit.

Nunn has a big problem though. Nathan Deal, a very weak candidate, beat a rather strong Dem in Roy Barnes quite handily. Midterm turnout = bad, bad, bad for Dems.

 

[Truthmatters]

Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.

Supreme Court denies RNC bid to end voter fraud consent decree - Los Angeles Times




your party cant cheat enough to win this go arround

 

[Yurt]

Hello fellow USMBers.

I did some analysis of the US Senate race using some handy Excel spreadsheets.
Using the following rankings, based off of Sabato Crystal Ball and polling data:

Long story short, I have cumulative probabilities on one of the files of the % chance the GOP can get so many seats. It shows the chances are 58% that the GOP will get at least 21 seats, which is +6 from what have now in that class, enough to take back the Senate.


EDIT: The first attachment should be self-explanatory. In the 2nd attachment, I'm showing the raw data. I ran about 1500 simulations using Excel's random function of how the election would go. I have probabilities of the GOP winning each seat presented as decimals in the column after the name of the state. After that, each column is one of the simulations. I aggregated the results of the simulations and performed analyses on them in the 1st spreadsheet.

Supreme Court denies RNC bid to end voter fraud consent decree - Los Angeles Times




your party cant cheat enough to win this go arround

are you a drug addict?

 

[Truthmatters]

why do you deny cold hard FACTS????

 

[Contumacious]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014
.

Irrelevant.

Assuming that the figure is correct, the GOP will do so by adopting the democrats policies - more welfare/warfare police state tactics.

So they are not an opposition party - the Republican Party Surrender Caucus will merge - NOT OPPOSE - the democrats.

If they were to become an actual opposition party then their chances of taking the Senate will be reduced from slim to none.

.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Georgia is more a real deal for the Dems.

Well, again, in a year that looks to be favoring the opposition party in power, as most mid-terms do, I just find it unlikely a Democrat will pick up an open seat in a red state. Not saying it won't happen, just not likely in my opinion.

Although Hagan has dropped recently I don't expect it to be long lasting.

It's very rare that an incumbent who is trailing in the polls comes back to win and those that do usually do so because their challenger makes some kind of embarrassing gaffe (ie. Todd Akin) or some scandal breaks.

 

[rightwinger]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014
.

Irrelevant.

Assuming that the figure is correct, the GOP will do so by adopting the democrats policies - more welfare/warfare police state tactics.

So they are not an opposition party - the Republican Party Surrender Caucus will merge - NOT OPPOSE - the democrats.

If they were to become an actual opposition party then there chances of taking the Senate will be reduced from slim to none.

.

Nobody will vote for an extreme conservative or libertarian.....get over it

 

[Redfish]

GOP has 60% chance of taking back Senate in 2014
.

Irrelevant.

Assuming that the figure is correct, the GOP will do so by adopting the democrats policies - more welfare/warfare police state tactics.

So they are not an opposition party - the Republican Party Surrender Caucus will merge - NOT OPPOSE - the democrats.

If they were to become an actual opposition party then there chances of taking the Senate will be reduced from slim to none.

.

Nobody will vote for an extreme conservative or libertarian.....get over it

probably not, and that is too bad, because the country is going down the tubes with both parties leaning left.

there is more to this than winning elections. This is about saving our country. It may be too late, but we should not give up.

 

[rightwinger]

Irrelevant.

Assuming that the figure is correct, the GOP will do so by adopting the democrats policies - more welfare/warfare police state tactics.

So they are not an opposition party - the Republican Party Surrender Caucus will merge - NOT OPPOSE - the democrats.

If they were to become an actual opposition party then there chances of taking the Senate will be reduced from slim to none.

.

Nobody will vote for an extreme conservative or libertarian.....get over it

probably not, and that is too bad, because the country is going down the tubes with both parties leaning left.

there is more to this than winning elections. This is about saving our country. It may be too late, but we should not give up.

Actually, the country is going down the tubes because radical conservatives are bullying the moderates in their party and driving "No concessions" policies and gridlock