Ted Cruz Might Win It All

[BULLDOG]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

Cruz could win the Republican Primary...

Bush is banking on New Hampshire because Iowa is most likely Cruz and if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he would need South Carolina to stay in and by then I am banking Cruz take that state along with Nevada then put a nail in Trump run for the Oval Office...

Trump wins the first three Primaries and five candidates leave the race and Trump picks up 99% of those REPs supporters.

If you are gonna do all that wishing, you might as well wish for a pony too.

For get the pony and wish for Alicia Vikander instead... I mean a pony is possible but him getting her is beyond impossible...

If it's only a fruitless wish anyway, wish big.

 

[cereal_killer]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

And then Hillary will put out a statement thanking the GOP for their gift.

Trump is the last person Hillary wants to face in a debate. He doesn't give a fuck and THAT makes him very dangerous. She hasn't seen the likes of Trump on the war path....he's tame right now. Bet your ass that she and her handlers will not be prepared for the onslaught that is coming her way. It will be ugly for her.....watch and see.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

"Ted Cruz Might Win It All"

Republicans should hope not, he'd lose the GE.

Americans have always rejected extremism, be it left or right.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Obungles sure helped the republicans today, people are pissed off

 

[jc456]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

deja vu for me

 

[Moonglow]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

deja vu for me

Ahhh, you were born in Kenya also...

 

[BULLDOG]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

And then Hillary will put out a statement thanking the GOP for their gift.

Trump is the last person Hillary wants to face in a debate. He doesn't give a fuck and THAT makes him very dangerous. She hasn't seen the likes of Trump on the war path....he's tame right now. Bet your ass that she and her handlers will not be prepared for the onslaught that is coming her way. It will be ugly for her.....watch and see.

Hillary won't be the one casting all the votes. Trump has done well pandering to all the crazies, but when the majority of sane people start paying attention in the general, his rhetoric won't be nearly as useful. His childish tantrums and claims won't be an asset to him then.

 

[LoneLaugher]

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

As long as the Mom is 18, as always. When Obama was born I think the law was the mom had to be 21, hence the claims of many birthers that Obama was not born a US citizen. I think the more important issue is that the GOP did not do due diligence in vetting their opposition.

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

What? You don't remember that being the real issue? What's wrong with you????

 

[Toro]

I put £20 down at 8:1 odds Cruz will win.

I'm hoping Canadian Ted pulls it off because I'll be $250 richer!

Then, of course, he'll get crushed in the general, in a Goldwaterian sort of way.

 

[Votto]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

You tell 'em Silh. I demand a birth certificate! What's Cruz so scared of?!

If I were Ted, I would take a photo copy of Obama's birth certificate and white out Obama's name and date and put my own just for laughs.

 

[TheOldSchool]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

You tell 'em Silh. I demand a birth certificate! What's Cruz so scared of?!

If I were Ted, I would take a photo copy of Obama's birth certificate and white out Obama's name and date and put my own just for laughs.

It's probably not a bad idea, since he has no official birth certificate of his own.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

You tell 'em Silh. I demand a birth certificate! What's Cruz so scared of?!

If I were Ted, I would take a photo copy of Obama's birth certificate and white out Obama's name and date and put my own just for laughs.

Toothless snark always plays well with the GOP base.

 

[LoneLaugher]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

And then Hillary will put out a statement thanking the GOP for their gift.

Trump is the last person Hillary wants to face in a debate. He doesn't give a fuck and THAT makes him very dangerous. She hasn't seen the likes of Trump on the war path....he's tame right now. Bet your ass that she and her handlers will not be prepared for the onslaught that is coming her way. It will be ugly for her.....watch and see.

Yessir. Trump has proven to be an awesome debater. She should be shaking in her boots.

 

[jc456]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

deja vu for me

Ahhh, you were born in Kenya also...

Hahahaha, yeah, funny. Deja by that's the second time you posted the statement.

 

[rcfieldz]

Your next Presiident?

 

[rcfieldz]

Sorry wrong pic...

my mistake.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

That's a lot of "if Trump falters". Sorry but Cruz doesn't stand a chance.
Trump will not "falter".
There's a granite solid mood in the country with REPs to repudiate the first AA President's attempts do everything he can to make his activist Communist negro father who abandoned him, try to earn his father's love by attempting to turn the US into a Socialist State.
Please put up your analysis after the first three Primaries.
We'll see what has happened.
BTW Cruz doesn't have enough "money" to buy his fucking staff Kentucky Fried for diner.

Cruz has more money on hand than any other candidate that is not self funded, bubba.

 

[JimBowie1958]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

I wish I could whole heartedly agree, but all candidates need organizational staff on the ground.

Trump cant win everything like a Beauty Contest for the Oval Office.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The press didn't put that fruit loop T-rump up to represent birthers. He did it himself. If you want to continue whining about it, go ahead. It's always fun to watch a crazy spout crazy stuff.

You have stated nothing in that whole shit pile that even remotely resembles something called 'Truthful', not that you would care, being a libtard as you are.

So, Troll, can you go fuck off or do I have to put yet another Sorosbot on ignore?

Fuck it, welcome to my ignore list. I dont have time for bullshit like you.

 

[cereal_killer]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

I wish I could whole heartedly agree, but all candidates need organizational staff on the ground.

Trump cant win everything like a Beauty Contest for the Oval Office.

Trump quietly builds a data juggernaut