Ted Cruz Might Win It All

[NLT]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

You might have a point if Cruz released his long form birth certificate. Which he won't. Does Rafael Eduardo Cruz have something to hide? Obviously yes.

^^^^^^fucking libtard birfer

 

[TheOldSchool]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

You might have a point if Cruz released his long form birth certificate. Which he won't. Does Rafael Eduardo Cruz have something to hide? Obviously yes.

^^^^^^fucking libtard birfer

Rafael could clear this up in one second if he would just release his long form birth certificate.

 

[browsing deer]

So...if Cruz was born in Communist China to an American born mother and lived there for many years then came to the U.S....that's totally legit?

I would not be happy with it, neither would most folks. Bernie and Trump's major objections to her would be she was chinese. They would have no leg to stand on legally.

 

[JimBowie1958]

You really have to get off the drugs, dude.

 

[JimBowie1958]

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

You really need to take a reading comprehension class.

Her age made WHERE Obama was born relevant, and it would not have been otherwise.

 

[JimBowie1958]

So...if Cruz was born in Communist China to an American born mother and lived there for many years then came to the U.S....that's totally legit?

I would not be happy with it, neither would most folks. Bernie and Trump's major objections to her would be she was chinese. They would have no leg to stand on legally.

IF she is legal, then she is legal.

why do libtards have such a difficult time with that concept?

 

[JimBowie1958]

^^^^^^fucking libtard birfer

Unfuckingcredible.

 

[BULLDOG]

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

You really need to take a reading comprehension class.

Her age made WHERE Obama was born relevant, and it would not have been otherwise.

During all the crazy birther crap, I never heard anything about her age. It was never an issue and you're just looking for some way to justify all the crazy crap that has already been shown to be unjustifiable.

 

[JimBowie1958]

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

You really need to take a reading comprehension class.

Her age made WHERE Obama was born relevant, and it would not have been otherwise.

During all the crazy birther crap, I never heard anything about her age. It was never an issue and you're just looking for some way to justify all the crazy crap that has already been shown to be unjustifiable.

You really are full of shit, troll.

 

[cereal_killer]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

 

[BULLDOG]

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

You really need to take a reading comprehension class.

Her age made WHERE Obama was born relevant, and it would not have been otherwise.

During all the crazy birther crap, I never heard anything about her age. It was never an issue and you're just looking for some way to justify all the crazy crap that has already been shown to be unjustifiable.

You really are full of shit, troll.

You got a link from the height of the crazy birther crap that says her age had anything to do with it?

 

[JimBowie1958]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

 

[JimBowie1958]

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

You really need to take a reading comprehension class.

Her age made WHERE Obama was born relevant, and it would not have been otherwise.

During all the crazy birther crap, I never heard anything about her age. It was never an issue and you're just looking for some way to justify all the crazy crap that has already been shown to be unjustifiable.

You really are full of shit, troll.

You got a link from the height of the crazy birther crap that says her age had anything to do with it?

No, and you'r not getting one because I dont care how many fruit loops the press put up to represent Birthers. All I know is what provoked me to dig into the matter and the reasonable people I know.

The weak link was not that Obama had only one American parent, but that he had little documentation to his birth here and he went for a while claiming to be a foreign born US citizen.

 

[dannyboys]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

That's a lot of "if Trump falters". Sorry but Cruz doesn't stand a chance.
Trump will not "falter".
There's a granite solid mood in the country with REPs to repudiate the first AA President's attempts do everything he can to make his activist Communist negro father who abandoned him, try to earn his father's love by attempting to turn the US into a Socialist State.
Please put up your analysis after the first three Primaries.
We'll see what has happened.
BTW Cruz doesn't have enough "money" to buy his fucking staff Kentucky Fried for diner.

 

[BULLDOG]

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

You really need to take a reading comprehension class.

Her age made WHERE Obama was born relevant, and it would not have been otherwise.

During all the crazy birther crap, I never heard anything about her age. It was never an issue and you're just looking for some way to justify all the crazy crap that has already been shown to be unjustifiable.

You really are full of shit, troll.

You got a link from the height of the crazy birther crap that says her age had anything to do with it?

No, and you'r not getting one because I dont care how many fruit loops the press put up to represent Birthers. All I know is what provoked me to dig into the matter and the reasonable people I know.

The weak link was not that Obama had only one American parent, but that he had little documentation to his birth here and he went for a while claiming to be a foreign born US citizen.

The press didn't put that fruit loop T-rump up to represent birthers. He did it himself. If you want to continue whining about it, go ahead. It's always fun to watch a crazy spout crazy stuff.

 

[dannyboys]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

Cruz could win the Republican Primary...

Bush is banking on New Hampshire because Iowa is most likely Cruz and if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he would need South Carolina to stay in and by then I am banking Cruz take that state along with Nevada then put a nail in Trump run for the Oval Office...

Trump wins the first three Primaries and five candidates leave the race and Trump picks up 99% of those REPs supporters.

 

[BULLDOG]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

Cruz could win the Republican Primary...

Bush is banking on New Hampshire because Iowa is most likely Cruz and if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he would need South Carolina to stay in and by then I am banking Cruz take that state along with Nevada then put a nail in Trump run for the Oval Office...

Trump wins the first three Primaries and five candidates leave the race and Trump picks up 99% of those REPs supporters.

If you are gonna do all that wishing, you might as well wish for a pony too.

 

[cereal_killer]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

 

[BULLDOG]

No offense JimBowie1958 but this reminds me of Karl Rove holding up those charts saying Romney was going to win. Different set of circumstances yes, but there's no way Cruz makes it as the nominee.

Yeah, I mean it is all projection, prognostics and reading tea leaves. For all we know Jeb Bush could win Iowa and New Hampshire.

The question is what are the odds, what is the most plausible outcome?

Right now I think that it is most likely that Trump will finish second or third in Iowa with Cruz winning there, and a surprisingly strong showing by Jeb.
A Trump win in New Hampshire is very likely, but Jeb or Christi could surprise us, as well as Cruz.

The wild card here is the total lack of Trumps ground organization. That makes the whole thing very iffy, and I would not be surprized that he gets shelacked hard.

He seems to think he can win all this with no ground game and he is very wrong, IMO.

The ONLY way Trump gets shelacked is if his supporters don't show up to vote. Yeah this, that, and everything else can happen, but it's a pretty safe bet Trump is getting the nomination at this point.

And then Hillary will put out a statement thanking the GOP for their gift.

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

Cruz could win the Republican Primary...

Bush is banking on New Hampshire because Iowa is most likely Cruz and if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he would need South Carolina to stay in and by then I am banking Cruz take that state along with Nevada then put a nail in Trump run for the Oval Office...

Trump wins the first three Primaries and five candidates leave the race and Trump picks up 99% of those REPs supporters.

If you are gonna do all that wishing, you might as well wish for a pony too.

For get the pony and wish for Alicia Vikander instead... I mean a pony is possible but him getting her is beyond impossible...