Obama is the first president in our history whose margin of victory for reelection was smaller than his first one.
Indeed, his margin of victory dropped by over 60% and he lost many demographic groups that he won handily the first time around.
For example, Romney handily beat Obama among every income group except the bottom two: the poor and lower middle income ($0 to $25K and $25K to $50K). Romney won soundly among voters who earn $50K or more, i.e., the middle class, the affluent, the rich, and the super rich ($50K-$99K, $100K-$199K, $200K-$249K, $250K and above). Romney's margins of victory in those groups were 6%, 10%, 5%, and 13% respectively.
Romney also carried independents by a margin of 5%, 50% to 45%.
On the other hand, Obama soundly beat Romney among high school dropouts, winning that sad demographic by nearly 2 to 1 (64% to 35%). By the way, those uneducated voters accounted for about 3% of all votes cast, so we're not talking about some insignificant number. By any measure, a group that makes up 2-3% of the electorate is important, especially when the election is decided by less than 3%.
If low-income and lower-middle-income voters had not gone so overwhelmingly for Obama--63% to 35% and 57% to 42%--Romney would have won.
So, in a very real sense, one can say that Obama owes his victory to the two bottom income groups and high school dropouts, the two least-successful demographic groups among us.
Indeed, his margin of victory dropped by over 60% and he lost many demographic groups that he won handily the first time around.
For example, Romney handily beat Obama among every income group except the bottom two: the poor and lower middle income ($0 to $25K and $25K to $50K). Romney won soundly among voters who earn $50K or more, i.e., the middle class, the affluent, the rich, and the super rich ($50K-$99K, $100K-$199K, $200K-$249K, $250K and above). Romney's margins of victory in those groups were 6%, 10%, 5%, and 13% respectively.
Romney also carried independents by a margin of 5%, 50% to 45%.
On the other hand, Obama soundly beat Romney among high school dropouts, winning that sad demographic by nearly 2 to 1 (64% to 35%). By the way, those uneducated voters accounted for about 3% of all votes cast, so we're not talking about some insignificant number. By any measure, a group that makes up 2-3% of the electorate is important, especially when the election is decided by less than 3%.
If low-income and lower-middle-income voters had not gone so overwhelmingly for Obama--63% to 35% and 57% to 42%--Romney would have won.
So, in a very real sense, one can say that Obama owes his victory to the two bottom income groups and high school dropouts, the two least-successful demographic groups among us.
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