Global warming increases hurricane intensity, right?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by DavidS, Sep 9, 2009.

  1. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    So, right now, Hurricane Fred is the strongest hurricane "on record" that has ever been this far South East in the Atlantic Ocean.

    According to Al Gore and GW alarmists, global warming is INCREASING the SST (sea surface temperatures) and this is causing hurricanes to grow stronger, right?

    The fact that he leaves out so many other factors such as wind shear, steering patterns, pressure, upper level lows, cold core surface lows, dry air and Saharan dust (which has been a huge problem this year for hurricane development) is alarming.

    Getting back to Fred, the problem with the first sentence is "on record." Why? Because according to someone who does this for a living, there is no way we would have been able to "see" how strong a hurricane was without satellites back in the very late 1960s and early 1970s. So, up until then, it would be nearly impossible, unless you had a ship with accurate instrumentation that traveled directly into the core of the hurricane and take pressure and wind readings, there is absolutely no way that a ship would ever know (or survive for that matter) how strong a hurricane is. What this means is that every single record for non-landfalling hurricanes before satellites were available to weather forecasters, is inaccurate, which completely throws Al Gore's theory out the window.

    Here's the discussion:

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 091442
    TCDAT2
    HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
    1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009

    FRED HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW A
    MAJOR HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
    DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS AND REMAINS
    EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE LATEST DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 102 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS NEAR
    115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING FRED
    THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.

    ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR
    AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS CAUSE FRED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.
    THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS COOLER
    AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
    WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR. THE LATEST NHC
    FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS
    FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE LESS
    SENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS
    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

    THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT
    305/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AS MOST
    GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
    NORTHEAST DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
    ATLANTIC. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
    DECELERATES FRED AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING
    CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
    OF FRED BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
    CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
    SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...THEN ENDS UP
    SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
    TAKE A MORE WESTWARD PATH. THE TWO BIGGEST OUTLIERS TO THIS
    FORECAST ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH THAN
    MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP IT AS A DEEP
    CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.

    IT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN
    THE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF
    35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO
    FAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD. THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...
    HOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE
    BEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.



    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.9N 32.4W 105 KT
    12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.9N 33.5W 110 KT
    24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.3W 105 KT
    36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.2N 34.7W 90 KT
    48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.6W 80 KT
    72HR VT 12/1200Z 18.7N 34.0W 60 KT
    96HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 34.2W 45 KT
    120HR VT 14/1200Z 23.5N 36.0W 30 KT

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  2. k2skier
    Offline

    k2skier Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Messages:
    713
    Thanks Received:
    48
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Ratings:
    +50
    Temperature IS one the major ingredients for huricanes...
     
  3. CrusaderFrank
    Online

    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    81,258
    Thanks Received:
    14,919
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Ratings:
    +37,053
    Thou shall not question the veracity of ManMade GlobalWarming Climate Change Great Climatic Googly Moogly
     
  4. k2skier
    Offline

    k2skier Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Messages:
    713
    Thanks Received:
    48
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Ratings:
    +50
    no one has, you're just spewing repub mantra
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2009
  5. DavidS
    Offline

    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    9,811
    Thanks Received:
    766
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    New York, NY
    Ratings:
    +767
    That's like saying flour is one of the ingredients for cake. Flour alone does not a hurricane make.
     
  6. k2skier
    Offline

    k2skier Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Messages:
    713
    Thanks Received:
    48
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Ratings:
    +50
    Correct, but without the right temperatures it's impossible for a hurricane to form.
    So as I posted, it's the main ingredient for a hurricane....or the starting one...
     
  7. CrusaderFrank
    Online

    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    81,258
    Thanks Received:
    14,919
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Ratings:
    +37,053
    So my SUV is not only warming Jupiter, Saturn, Mars but it's also causing more powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic.

    Is that about, right?
     
  8. KittenKoder
    Offline

    KittenKoder Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2008
    Messages:
    23,281
    Thanks Received:
    1,711
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Nowhere
    Ratings:
    +1,714
    Okay, so now the world is cooling and they can't claim it's getting hot anymore ... what are they using as the boogieman? Hurricanes. Yep ... another failed prediction which was shifted to something else.
     
  9. CrusaderFrank
    Online

    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    81,258
    Thanks Received:
    14,919
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Ratings:
    +37,053
    It's now called "ManMade GlobalWarming GlobalWarmerCoolering GlobalCoolerWarmering Climate Change Great Climatic Googly Moogly", just so we catch it all
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  10. k2skier
    Offline

    k2skier Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Messages:
    713
    Thanks Received:
    48
    Trophy Points:
    51
    Ratings:
    +50
    Really? You should fact check before posting...2009 is just below average...

    2 cool years does not make a trend.

    Data @ NASA GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: Graphs
     

Share This Page