Wall Street Is Updating Its Recession Predictions. They're Extremely Bleak

[g5000]

JPMorgan now believes that China's economy will shrink by 40% compared to the previous quarter between January and March, the biggest contraction recorded over the past 50 years at least. That will reverberate across Asia.

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The bank thinks US GDP will shrink an annualized rate of 14% in the second quarter, far worse than in the fourth quarter of 2008, which yielded the steepest contraction of the Great Recession.

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The situation looks even worse in Europe, which is now the epicenter of the pandemic. The eurozone economy is forecast to shrink 22% during the second quarter, while the UK economy is expected to contract 30%.

I am glad I was able to refinance at the beginning of the crash and get 2.65%. Rates have risen from their bottom since then since demand has surged.

I hope you are all taking precautions for an economy in recession.

Don't look at your 401(k). I have not looked at mine since before the crash. I'm leaving it alone. I don't want to know how down I am right now. There is nothing you can do about your losses in your 401(k)s anyway. If you cash out, you get a huge tax hit. So leave it alone. Don't even look at it.

Something I did many years ago was buy three deep freezers. I also have a pantry I keep well stocked. I buy stuff in bulk when it goes on sale. Something to think about for the future. While everyone was running around panic buying, I was able to sit back and relax. I'm not on the level of the end-of-the-world preppers, I just observe what I was taught by my grandparents who used to be snowed in for the winters in Maine back in the day.

 

[Toro]

If the entire country took the next two weeks off and went home, this would be nearly over, and the economy would fall by ~4-5%. However, the way GDP is reported in this country, it will say that the economy contracted by 16%-20%. That's obviously misleading to what's actually happening.

Then, in Q3 or Q4 when the virus is a manageable issue, GDP will rebound sharply, and we'll see numbers like "13% GDP growth in the third quarter." That's misleading too.

This is a demand shock. Demand shocks shock the economy. So it's no surprise that the headline numbers look so bad.

FTR, most of the domestic economy in China is operating not far from normal. It's the export markets that are hurting Chinese companies at the moment.

 

[lennypartiv]

More fear mongering from the Democrats.

 

[Bootney Lee Farnsworth]

Something I did many years ago was buy three deep freezers. I also have a pantry I keep well stocked. I buy stuff in bulk when it goes on sale. Something to think about for the future. While everyone was running around panic buying, I was able to sit back and relax. I'm not on the level of the end-of-the-world preppers, I just observe what I was taught by my grandparents who used to be snowed in for the winters in Maine back in the day.

You must be Mormon. Only Mormons behave this way.

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