There will NOT be an Ukranian Peace Deal

LOL. You take a few weeks off to go fight in Ukraine?
More likely they'll send me to Mexico or Canada to support carthels with chemical and biological warfare against the USA.

Putin sees that the end is near, the price of oil is dropping and is expected to keep dropping.
Just your wishful thinking.
You better hope Putin isn't stupid enough to nuke anyone.
Why not? I mean, even from my pretty pacifistic and pro-American position, a limited counter-force strike against America is much better than allow existence of NATO bases in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
 
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The Trilateral Agreement did NOT include a proviso specifying that that the US would turn Ukraine into a CIA Colony !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


There is NO EVIDENCE that Putin sought to annex Novorossiya prior to December 2013.
Actually, Gleb Bobrov's "The Age of Deathborn" about future Russia-backed rebellion in Eastern Novorussia was published back in 2008. Fedor Berezin's "War 2010: Ukrainian front" was published in 2009.
And Konstantin Mzareulov's "The first [war] in the new century" was published back in 2000.

Yes, it's not the evidence that Putin personally was planning the war against NATO, but it's clear evidence that Russian society saw the clash with NATO over Ukraine more than just "possible".
 
Risky. So Putin says no deal, keep fighting. You make Ukraine a NATO member, and that starts WW3.
Trump doesn't want to start WW3. Trump wants out of Ukraine as cheaply as possible. I agree with that, if Russia gets some land in Ukraine, so what? Its not worth US kids nor US dollars.


RW, thinks only cowards are afraid of nuclear war. He made fun of me for being afraid of nuclear war.
 
More likely they'll send me to Mexico or Canada to support cartels with chemical and biological warfare against the USA.
Sneaky Russians and criminals, "birds of a feather".
Just your wishful thinking.
Here is a 5-year chart of oil prices, looks like its slowly dropping to me.
1745753095466.webp

Why not? I mean, even from my pretty pacifistic and pro-American position, a limited counter-force strike against America is much better than allow existence of NATO bases in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Trump wants to keep Ukraine independent of NATO, he knows that is a redline for Putin.
Please note that any nuclear strike starts a chain reaction of nuclear strikes, a very bad outcome for everyone.
The sticking point appears to be, how to guarantee Ukraine security without NATO membership?
Trump wants to mine Ukraine, so that implies a US presence, is that enough to guarantee security, or would UN "peacekeepers" be required?
 
Sneaky Russians and criminals, "birds of a feather".
Its not that I would like it, but as for me - drinking tequila, smoking Havana's and enjoying the society of exotic beauties while training local rebels to use poisons and bioweapons for good salary is a way better than get rotten in trenches for a way lower salary. And even from moral point of view, is a way better to kill Americans, who hired Ukrainians, rather than Ukrainians who are just hired muscles.

Here is a 5-year chart of oil prices, looks like its slowly dropping to me.
View attachment 1104928
Looks like as highly dependent from other events, first of all - from industrial demands. If you want make weapons - you'll buy more oil (and it gives us more money). If you don't want to make weapons, Russia and China (and other industrial states) will have more oil for lower prices, make more weapons and take whatever they want (starting with Ukraine and Taiwan) by military force.

Trump wants to keep Ukraine independent of NATO, he knows that is a redline for Putin.
Really, I don't care what he wants. What is more or less important is what he is going to do: escalate or deescalate.

Please note that any nuclear strike starts a chain reaction of nuclear strikes, a very bad outcome for everyone.
Not necessarily. It also might cause more or less mutually acceptable peace solution. Like, you know, escalation for de-escalation.

The sticking point appears to be, how to guarantee Ukraine security without NATO membership?
There is no sticking point at all. If Kievan regime continue its existence in its current anti-Russian form, there is no force on this planet that can "guarantee" Ukrainian security. Quite contrary, without equal right for Russians (and changing of Ukrainian constitution in the point of their future NATO membership) we can guarantee Ukrainian insecurity.

So, there could be only three things that might (not necessarily) chance for Ukrainian security: 1) denazification (including regime change, recognition of past and future referendums, elimination of Banderovci and so on) 2) demilitarization (including decrease of Ukrainian forces to acceptable level, end of forced mobilisation and open borders), no foreign forces; 3) neutral status of Ukraine, written in Ukrainian constitution and accepted by other NATO members (no any stupid tricks like a "government in exile").

Those three things may make peace in Ukraine.

Trump wants to mine Ukraine, so that implies a US presence, is that enough to guarantee security, or would UN "peacekeepers" be required?
No. While the USA is a member of NATO, there will be no US forces in Ukraine (only until the next cruise missile income in their barracks).
 
Actually, Gleb Bobrov's "The Age of Deathborn" about future Russia-backed rebellion in Eastern Novorussia was published back in 2008. Fedor Berezin's "War 2010: Ukrainian front" was published in 2009.
And Konstantin Mzareulov's "The first [war] in the new century" was published back in 2000.

Yes, it's not the evidence that Putin personally was planning the war against NATO, but it's clear evidence that Russian society saw the clash with NATO over Ukraine more than just "possible".
Reason they signed the Minsk 1 and 2 Agreements

But Obama's henchperson Victoria Nuland is overheard on a tapped phone stating "Fuck the Minsks agreements the US is not a signatory"
 
Its not that I would like it, but as for me - drinking tequila, smoking Havana's and enjoying the society of exotic beauties while training local rebels to use poisons and bioweapons for good salary is a way better than get rotten in trenches for a way lower salary. And even from moral point of view, is a way better to kill Americans, who hired Ukrainians, rather than Ukrainians who are just hired muscles.
Keep dreaming.
Looks like as highly dependent from other events, first of all - from industrial demands. If you want make weapons - you'll buy more oil (and it gives us more money). If you don't want to make weapons, Russia and China (and other industrial states) will have more oil for lower prices, make more weapons and take whatever they want (starting with Ukraine and Taiwan) by military force.
Trump will keep driving the price of oil lower.
Really, I don't care what he wants. What is more or less important is what he is going to do: escalate or deescalate.
There is no sticking point at all. If Kievan regime continue its existence in its current anti-Russian form, there is no force on this planet that can "guarantee" Ukrainian security. Quite contrary, without equal right for Russians (and changing of Ukrainian constitution in the point of their future NATO membership) we can guarantee Ukrainian insecurity.
So, there could be only three things that might (not necessarily) chance for Ukrainian security: 1) denazification (including regime change, recognition of past and future referendums, elimination of Banderovci and so on) 2) demilitarization (including decrease of Ukrainian forces to acceptable level, end of forced mobilisation and open borders), no foreign forces; 3) neutral status of Ukraine, written in Ukrainian constitution and accepted by other NATO members (no any stupid tricks like a "government in exile"). Those three things may make peace in Ukraine.
One day Trump says he's walking away from Ukraine, the next day he says he's turning up the heat on Russia with banking and tougher sanctions. Zelensky doesn't want to give up Crimea, Trump wants him to for peace. Ukraine is a democracy, so whoever wins without Russian interference rules Ukraine. There are no Nazis. Russia has no other conditions that will be accepted. Either peace happens or it doesn't.
No. While the USA is a member of NATO, there will be no US forces in Ukraine (only until the next cruise missile income in their barracks).
Russia does not want a war with NATO. Ukraine is not part of Russia, after 3-years of war you guys should know that by now.
 
Keep dreaming.

Trump will keep driving the price of oil lower.
And how he do it? Magically or just by decreasing oil demand by decreasing industrial capabilities? Less oil consumed by America and Europe - more oil consumed by China and India. Lesser oil prices for industrial countries - lesser prices for industrial goods. Russia was exchanging one barrel of oil for one UAV, Russia continue exchange one barrel of oil for one UAV.

One day Trump says he's walking away from Ukraine, the next day he says he's turning up the heat on Russia with banking and tougher sanctions. Zelensky doesn't want to give up Crimea, Trump wants him to for peace. Ukraine is a democracy, so whoever wins without Russian interference rules Ukraine. There are no Nazis. Russia has no other conditions that will be accepted. Either peace happens or it doesn't.
As you wish. It means, that there will be no peace. If you denie existence of the problem - you won't be able to find solution.

Russia does not want a war with NATO.
Who told you this?

Ukraine is not part of Russia, after 3-years of war you guys should know that by now.
Ukraine is a part of Russia, just temporarily controlled by NATO backed separatists. Just believe me. We know better.
 
And how he do it? Magically or just by decreasing oil demand by decreasing industrial capabilities? Less oil consumed by America and Europe - more oil consumed by China and India. Lesser oil prices for industrial countries - lesser prices for industrial goods. Russia was exchanging one barrel of oil for one UAV, Russia continue exchange one barrel of oil for one UAV.
Trump will enable more oil production to keep the price low.
As you wish. It means, that there will be no peace. If you deny existence of the problem - you won't be able to find solution.
Ok, keep fighting the Ukrainians then. I don't have a dog in that fight, Europe does.
Who told you this?
History, since NATO was formed informs me that Russia does not want a war with NATO.
Ukraine is a part of Russia, just temporarily controlled by NATO backed separatists. Just believe me. We know better.
Ukraine is a separate independent country, it has been since the breakup of the USSR. After 3-years of war you should know that by now. Here is what AI says about it:
"Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union on August 24, 1991, following a referendum in which about 90% of voters supported independence. This declaration marked a significant step in Ukraine's long struggle for sovereignty and was a key event leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union later that year."
 
Trump will enable more oil production.

Really? By lowering oil prices? Are you kidding? The oil market doesn't work this way. Oil production isn't a charity, it's a hard work, and it is responsible work. You can't use cheap prisoners or illegal migrants for it. And for hard work people should be well payed. And if the prices are high enough to feed American oil-producers, they are more than high enough to feed Russian oil-producers.
But even if you wish to achieve short-term advantage (by the price of the long-term disadvantage) and make some financial trick (like targeted zero-percent credits for oil producers) the only result of those artificially decreased oil prices will be additional super-profit for China, and at least the half of this extra-prifit China will invest in Russia (to keep her fighting and keeping the prices relatively low).

History since NATO was formed says Russia does not want a war with NATO.
As far as I read NATO books, it's vice versa, the only wish of "evil Ruskies" was (and still is) to attack innocent Europe for no reason

Ukraine is a separate independent country, it has been since the breakup of the USSR.
It's not enough to declare independence. A state needs to prove its ability to be the independent state. Ukraine tried, Ukraine failed, Ukraine died mostly because of the mental infection "ideology of hatred". Now, what we can see is the dead and rotten body moving and fighting exclusively because of the foreign support. Something like a Hollywood zombie.

Sad, but true.
 
Really? By lowering oil prices? Are you kidding? The oil market doesn't work this way. Oil production isn't a charity, it's a hard work, and it is responsible work. You can't use cheap prisoners or illegal migrants for it. And for hard work people should be well payed. And if the prices are high enough to feed American oil-producers, they are more than high enough to feed Russian oil-producers.
But even if you wish to achieve short-term advantage (by the price of the long-term disadvantage) and make some financial trick (like targeted zero-percent credits for oil producers) the only result of those artificially decreased oil prices will be additional super-profit for China, and at least the half of this extra-profit China will invest in Russia (to keep her fighting and keeping the prices relatively low).
Trump can allow tax write-offs and other "subsidies" to get oil companies to produce more oil.
Trump wants to lower inflation so the Fed lowers interest rates which helps US consumers.
Trump wants the KeystoneXL pipeline to finish, which gets a quick 300,000 bbls a day more.
So if Trump wants to hurt Putin's cash flow he can do it.
As far as I read NATO books, it's vice versa, the only wish of "evil Ruskies" was (and still is) to attack innocent Europe for no reason
I still remember the "Iron Curtain" and how miserable life was in East Germany. I remember the Prague Spring in 1968. Most countries like Poland, and the other Warsaw Pact countries wanted their independence from Russia. Ukraine wants to be like Poland, free of Russia.
It's not enough to declare independence. A state needs to prove its ability to be the independent state. Ukraine tried, Ukraine failed, Ukraine died mostly because of the mental infection "ideology of hatred". Now, what we can see is the dead and rotten body moving and fighting exclusively because of the foreign support. Something like a Hollywood zombie. Sad, but true.
Not true, Russia doesn't own Ukraine any more than they now own Poland. What is "sad but true" is that Putin is an evil dictator who rules Russia with an iron fist. I prefer the better presidents like Gorbachev or Yeltsin. Medvedev is Putin's sock puppet.
 
Ukraine is a separate independent country
Incorrect.

Ukraine CEASED being a sovereign independent Country when in February 2014 one Barack Hussein Obama removed Ukraine's duly elected President Viktor Yanukovych from power and installed CIA AGent Victoria Nuland as the new PM in charge.
 
Incorrect. Ukraine CEASED being a sovereign independent Country when in February 2014 one Barack Hussein Obama removed Ukraine's duly elected President Viktor Yanukovych from power and installed CIA Agent Victoria Nuland as the new PM in charge.
That's not what happened.
Hint:
 
Trump can allow tax write-offs and other "subsidies" to get oil companies to produce more oil.
Its not much comparing with oil prices and decreasing productivity of American oil fields.
Trump wants to lower inflation so the Fed lowers interest rates which helps US consumers.
Lower interest rates means more money on the market (with the same amount of goods) and higher (not lower) prices.

Trump wants the KeystoneXL pipeline to finish, which gets a quick 300,000 bbls a day more.
He wants - he pays.

So if Trump wants to hurt Putin's cash flow he can do it.
No. If he increase Chinese economy by lowering oil prices - he increase Putin's cash flow.


I still remember the "Iron Curtain" and how miserable life was in East Germany. I remember the Prague Spring in 1968. Most countries like Poland, and the other Warsaw Pact countries wanted their independence from Russia.
Bla-bla-bla. It has nothing with the answer on the simple question - were Russian wishing to destroy NATO during Cold War? And answer is simple, "yes, they were".
Back in the times of Cold War many guys in many countries saw Moscow's rule as "ineffective", they didn't want it. Now, many people see Brussel's rule as ineffective. They don't like it and, say, the UK has already left it, whike Hungary and Poland sabotage its actions.


Ukraine wants to be like Poland, free of Russia.
Some Ukrainians (we call them Banderlogs) want to be free of Russia. But they can't, mostly because they are Russians. Like a man can't really become a woman (while he can mitigate himself), same way, Russian person can't stop being Russian. Tarasistion (from popular Ukrainian name Taras and Transition) only mitigate person.

Not true, Russia doesn't own Ukraine any more than they now own Poland.
Of course it's true. Russia is the land of Russians. Ukrainians are Russians as Hillbillies are Americans.


What is "sad but true" is that Putin is an evil dictator who rules Russia with an iron fist.
He isn't "evil" and "iron fist" isn't evil either. "Iron fist" is more a part of his image, rather than an actual description of his ruling style.

I prefer the better presidents like Gorbachev or Yeltsin.
No problem. You want them - you elect them. Allow them to dismantle NATO and USA, and, may be, Russia won't repeat your mistake and won't try to take control over Alaska or arm Californian separatists or bomb England to force it to recognise independence of Scotland.

Medvedev is Putin's sock puppet.
Presidents like Gorbachev and Eltsin were possible when you stayed beyond Elbe. You have bombed Serbia - Russia choosed Putin and started preparations for the war. You declared in 2007 that Ukraine and Georgia will be NATO members - the war became inevitable. You make preparations to attack us, we make our preparations to attack you.
Return NATO's military infrastructure back to 1997 borders - and, may be, we'll talk about possible measures for keeping peace between Russian Federation and the USA.
 
Its not much comparing with oil prices and decreasing productivity of American oil fields.
Lower interest rates means more money on the market (with the same amount of goods) and higher (not lower) prices.
If he increase Chinese economy by lowering oil prices - he increase Putin's cash flow.
Trump is expanding oil fields and oil production, like ANWR in Alaska and off-shore fields.
Lower oil prices means less cash for Putin.
Bla-bla-bla. It has nothing with the answer on the simple question - were Russian wishing to destroy NATO during Cold War? And answer is simple, "yes, they were". Back in the times of Cold War many guys in many countries saw Moscow's rule as "ineffective", they didn't want it. Now, many people see Brussel's rule as ineffective. They don't like it and, say, the UK has already left it, while Hungary and Poland sabotage its actions.
NATO is stronger now than before thanks to Putin reminding everyone why they spend 3% on their militaries. Hungary and Poland especially appreciate and need NATO, they are not sabotaging it. (are you conflating NATO and the EU?)
Some Ukrainians (we call them Banderlogs) want to be free of Russia. But they can't, mostly because they are Russians. Like a man can't really become a woman (while he can mitigate himself), same way, Russian person can't stop being Russian. Tarasistion (from popular Ukrainian name Taras and Transition) only mitigate person. Of course it's true. Russia is the land of Russians. Ukrainians are Russians as Hillbillies are Americans.
If you look at the DNA differences, and there are slight differences, Ukrainians are Ukrainian, and Russians are Russian.
"...both nations retain the ethnic specificity of their gene pools: Ukrainian populations are similar to the rest of Ukraine, and Russian populations are similar to the south of the European part of Russia. The genetic differences may be due to the spatial characteristics of marriage migration and the predominant ethnic environment."
He isn't "evil" and "iron fist" isn't evil either. "Iron fist" is more a part of his image, rather than an actual description of his ruling style.
No problem. Allow them to dismantle NATO and USA, and, may be, Russia won't repeat your mistake and won't try to take control over Alaska or arm Californian separatists or bomb England to force it to recognise independence of Scotland.
Presidents like Gorbachev and Eltsin were possible when you stayed beyond Elbe. You have bombed Serbia - Russia chose Putin and started preparations for the war. You declared in 2007 that Ukraine and Georgia will be NATO members - the war became inevitable. You made preparations to attack us, we make our preparations to attack you. Return NATO's military infrastructure back to 1997 borders - and, may be, we'll talk about possible measures for keeping peace between Russian Federation and the USA.
Time moves forward not backward, 1997 is long gone. True, NATO lied to Russia when they said "not one inch eastward" after allowing German unification. That was unfortunate, because NATO kept moving eastward. I don't want to rehash how we got here. Russia attacked Georgia to keep them, and now is attacking Ukraine to keep it. The US and NATO don't capture territory we admit members who ask to join to prevent being captured by Russia. Russia threatening war just makes NATO stronger by adding member states. Maybe Russia should stop invading other countries and spend oil money (and lives) more wisely?
 
That's not what happened.
Hint:
THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT HAPPENED:

"Ukraine on Fire"

Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer​



If you need more sources let me know
 
Trump is expanding oil fields and oil production, like ANWR in Alaska and off-shore fields.
Lower oil prices means less cash for Putin.
Trump is not a magian. He can't just add oil to oil fields. If the prices are high - drilling in Alaska is profitable. If the prices are low - drilling in Alaska is non-profitable. And what is worse (for you) low oil prices boost Chinese and Indian economy and mean more cash for Putin.

NATO is stronger now than before thanks to Putin reminding everyone why they spend 3% on their militaries.
Of course no. You can't fight with percentages of GDP. You need actual weapons and vechicles. And Biden sanctions decreased Germany's industrial capabilities more drastically than Truman's carpet bombing campaigns.

Hungary and Poland especially appreciate and need NATO, they are not sabotaging it. (are you conflating NATO and the EU?)
Really? Ok. We'll see.

If you look at the DNA differences, and there are slight differences, Ukrainians are Ukrainian, and Russians are Russian.
"...both nations retain the ethnic specificity of their gene pools: Ukrainian populations are similar to the rest of Ukraine, and Russian populations are similar to the south of the European part of Russia. The genetic differences may be due to the spatial characteristics of marriage migration and the predominant ethnic environment."
First of all, the differences are more statistical - northern genes are more often in North, South genes are more often in South. But it is one claster of genes, there is no any specific "Russian" or "Ukrainian" genes. Second - being Russian or being Ukrainian is not about genes at all. My own Y-chromosome has Middle-East origin and is the most often in Saudi Arabia.


Time moves forward not backward, 1997 is long gone.
Yep. Now its time to return what is rightfully ours.

True, NATO lied to Russia when they said "not one inch eastward" after allowing German unification. That was unfortunate, because NATO kept moving eastward. I don't want to rehash how we got here.
It was your mistake and you have to undone it. One way, or another. You can do it by yourself or we can help you a little.

Russia attacked Georgia to keep them, and now is attacking Ukraine to keep it. The US and NATO don't capture territory we admit members who ask to join to prevent being captured by Russia. Russia threatening war just makes NATO stronger by adding member states.
No. It's just putting all bad eggs in one basket. And now, its time to drop the basket.

Maybe Russia should stop invading other countries and spend oil money (and lives) more wisely?
What can be more wise than investing money and lives in your own safety, elimination of your enemies and returning of your lands and your property? Especially if we live in the world with the only one international law - "Might is right"?
 
Russia's view of Ukraine?
I just listened to this lecture from post #316. Its probably how you look at the causes and outcomes for Ukraine?



The lecturer says:
Putin's position is that Ukraine stays Russian or he destroys it.
The Ukraine War was caused by the west by enticing Ukraine to join NATO.
His recommendation is to keep Ukraine neutral and independent and prosperous but never part of NATO or Russia because Ukraine is not strategically important to NATO countries, keep it as a buffer like Belarus.
 
Trump is not a magician. He can't just add oil to oil fields. If the prices are high - drilling in Alaska is profitable. If the prices are low - drilling in Alaska is non-profitable. And what is worse (for you) low oil prices boost Chinese and Indian economy and mean more cash for Putin.
China and India need to choose sides. Either Russian oil or business with the US. We need to stop the war one way or another.
Of course not. You can't fight with percentages of GDP. You need actual weapons and vehicles. And Biden's sanctions decreased Germany's industrial capabilities more drastically than Truman's carpet bombing campaigns.
Down 4% is hardly a disaster. My wife is German by ancestry, they don't stop or slow down. I'm not worried, getting rid of Merkel was the cure.
Really? Ok. We'll see.
Hungary and Poland are meeting their NATO commitments.
First of all, the differences are more statistical - northern genes are more often in North, South genes are more often in South. But it is one class of genes, there is no any specific "Russian" or "Ukrainian" genes. Second - being Russian or being Ukrainian is not about genes at all. My own Y-chromosome has Middle-East origin and is the most often in Saudi Arabia.
My ancestor's country of origin is Austria with some Ukrainian DNA, and 0.01% Ashkenazi?!
Yep. Now its time to return what is rightfully ours. It was your mistake and you have to undo it. One way, or another. You can do it by yourself or we can help you a little. No. It's just putting all bad eggs in one basket. And now, its time to drop the basket.
What can be more wise than investing money and lives in your own safety, elimination of your enemies and returning of your lands and your property? Especially if we live in the world with the only one international law - "Might is right"?
Post #318 and this video explains a lot. Let me know if you agree. I think there is a Russian option.
 
I just listened to this lecture from post #316. Its probably how you look at the causes and outcomes for Ukraine?



The lecturer says:
Putin's position is that Ukraine stays Russian or he destroys it.
The Ukraine War was caused by the west by enticing Ukraine to join NATO.
His recommendation is to keep Ukraine neutral and independent and prosperous but never part of NATO or Russia because Ukraine is not strategically important to NATO countries, keep it as a buffer like Belarus.

Please Listen to Magadonian Michael Caputo

 

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