Thank you, Contumacious for this nice lecture. At least it was a nice attempt of more or less sober explanation, you know, like a whisper of a reasonable voice in the orchestrated chorus of meaningless rage howling, which is the bulk of American and European reaction on the topic (at least from my point of view). Of course he just took the problem out of important wider contex (historical, military, economic, etc..), which is the only way to tell the story to the totally ignorant listeners, some of his statements are simply ridiculous (or may be I just didn't get them), but, at least, we can argue with this point of view. I mean we can't argue with the meaningless Biden's or Trump's statements, we just keep telling "bad doggie" or "good doggie", loading cartridges in our shotgun.
There will NOT be an Ukranian Peace Deal
- Thread starter Contumacious
- Start date
Thank you, Contumacious for this nice lecture. At least it was a nice attempt of more or less sober explanation, you know, like a whisper of a reasonable voice in the orchestrated chorus of meaningless rage howling, which is the bulk of American and European reaction on the topic (at least from my point of view). Of course he just took the problem out of important wider contex (historical, military, economic, etc..), which is the only way to tell the story to the totally ignorant listeners, some of his statements are simply ridiculous (or may be I just didn't get them), but, at least, we can argue with this point of view. I mean we can't argue with the meaningless Biden's or Trump's statements, we just keep telling "bad doggie" or "good doggie", loading cartridges in our shotgun.
Stick with Russia and have cheap oil from both Russia and the USA, plus have total safety, or stick with America, work for the bowl of rice per day and be unsafe? Of course they sided with Russia.
You need - you stop. We are pretty happy with its continuation and with the pretty achivable decisive victory.
4% per year? And more in energy-dependent branches (like chemical industry) or if you count not in euro's, but in number of tanks produced?Down 4% is hardly a disaster. My wife is German by ancestry, they don't stop or slow down. I'm not worried, getting rid of Merkel was the cure.Germany Industrial Production
Industrial Production in Germany decreased 4 percent in February of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This page provides the latest reported value for - Germany Industrial Production - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction...tradingeconomics.com
There is no "Ukrainian DNA" as there is no "Hillbilly DNA". (While there are statistical differences between American and Hillbilly DNA).
kyzr
Diamond Member
Summarizing my takeaways from the lecture:
1. James Baker or some other American strategist came up with the idea to promote Ukraine independence from Russia, knowing the strategic complications that would create for Russia.
2. The Ukrainians liked the idea, and rebelled against Russia, thinking they would be like Poland.
3. Putin didn't see Ukraine like Poland but as a part of Russia that he could not let gain independence, like if a US state wanted to leave the US, it simply could not be allowed for Russia's national security.
4. Ukrainians fought a lot harder than Putin and his generals thought possible, and the 3-day war is now a 3-year war, with no end in sight. That was a strategic blunder by Russia, it had to capture Ukraine quickly but failed.
5. Putin now has two options, keep fighting until he captures all of Ukraine, totally destroying it in the process, or take as much territory as possible and take a peace deal that requires Ukraine to never join NATO, but to remain an independent country economically part of the EU.
This assumes that Putin would even allow a much smaller Ukraine to become independent.
I'm assuming that between 2014 and today that Ukraine is totally independent of Russia, so the separation would not be difficult.
Zelensky also needs to accept the much smaller Ukraine as part of any peace deal.
The alternative is WW3, not a good option.
The US & EU & NATO always try to help countries become "democracies", and oppose dictators as a general rule, even if those countries, like Ukraine, have no strategic significance. Its just what we do throughout the world.
kyzr
Diamond Member
Did they? We'll see how it plays out.
Years from now Russia may achieve total victory, but at what cost? A totally destroyed Ukraine and a bankrupt and militarily depleted Russia. You might call it a victory, but we'd say it was a lose-lose for Russia and Ukraine.
Germany can either make tanks or buy them. They could do either. They do have one of the best tanks in the world.
I'm sorry, but my DNA report says otherwise. There is a Ukrainian DNA. Research if you disagree.
More or less yes, but basically it wasn't his idea anyway. The West has a long history of usage South-West Russians (Ukrainians) as a leverage against Russia. CIA just took Banderovci (German assets) as a trophy after WWII. Nothing really new. Even in the post-Soviet period the USA used Banderovci as anti-Russian assets in Chechnya and Georgia.
Not all Ukrainians, of course. Many citizens of Ukraine were (and still are) actively pro-Russian or just neutral. But, mostly because of great sums of invested western money Banderovci because very influencial minority, and even overthroned legally elected president.
It's not just Putin, if course. Most of Russian people, especially those who have Ukrainian friends and relatives (or even was born in Ukraine) don't see Ukraine as "independent" and, especially, hostile state. And no, even Putin doesn't see Poland "as Poland". Poland was allowed to be more or less independent only until its wasn't a threat to Russia. Like, say, Americans can allow independence of Cuba (without Soviet missiles). More NATO forces in Poland - more chances of Russian decision to finish Polish independence.
It is simply not true. Even if Kievan regime unconditionally surrendered in the very first days of the Special Military Operation, there was no any reason to think that Banderovci might cease their resistance anyway. And unconditional surrender and regime change in Kiev would only mean the start of anti-guerilla warfare in the Western Ukraine. It might be lesser expensive in human lifes, but definitely much more time and money demanding.
But, anyway, given that the main reason for the start of SMO was great involvement of NATO in Ukraine, it would be very optimistic to count on that NATO won't be involved.
Actually he has more than two options. And no, if we kill all the Banderovci in the field, we can capture Ukrainian cities more or less undamaged (as it had happened with, say, Melitopol).
Putin can allow a much smaller Ukraine to become more or less independent, only if there is a wider peace and weapons-control treaty (including demilitarization of the Eastern Europe). If, say, the USA deploy Dark Eagle missiles in Poland, Russia has no other option but demilitarize Poland, too. And to fight Poland or Germany Russia needs Ukraine and Ukrainians.
You are wrong.
For Zelenskiy words "peace" and "death sentence" are totally equal. He will continue to fight until he is killed. The only question is about how more money you can afford to lose in Ukraine and what level of nuclear war (and death of millions of Americans) risk are you ready to take
Of course it not "always", quite often they are fighting against democratically elected leaders to establish anarchy or even worse tyranny.
You already saw. Russia won the war of attrition against the whole West. It couldn't be possible without significant support of the Global South.
Cost doesn't matter. The price of defeat might be much more terrible.
I don't think so. It is the USA who are forced to cut the losses even in strategically important things.
Really? And where are all those "German tanks"? In the Russian exhibitions of trophies?
They could say that there is "Hillbilly DNA", for there is statistically important DNA differences between Hillbillies and Americans.
kyzr
Diamond Member
The US CIA was very busy during the cold war years. Today I don't see as many coups and assassinations as before. I'm still not sure if the CIA was involved in the assassination attempts on Trump. Here in the US super-spy movies are very popular. We have Jason Bourne, John Wick, "The Equalizer", James Bond 007, The IMF (mission impossible), an British MI-6 movies. The Russians or Russian mob are always the bad guys.
The Maidan Revolution showed that the majority of Ukrainians did not want the Russian stooge.
Poland is part of NATO, so Putin is not a threat to them, he can rattle swords all he wants but he knows his boundary.
If Putin captured Kiev in the 1st 3-days his legacy would have been much grander, as it is now he looks weak and struggling to keep power. Someone will end his time in office before he does irreparable harm.
Putin is sending missiles and bombs into Ukrainian cities killing civilians. He cemented his legacy as a butcher like Stalin.
This paragraph translates poorly. Eastern Europe needs to defend against Russian aggression. Putin proved that by invading Georgia and Ukraine. Peace in Ukraine means Ukraine is free from Russia. If Russia doesn't want to fight NATO, don't attack a NATO country. IF Russia wants to reduce the number of nuclear weapons to save money, fine.
How am I wrong? Can you prove that Russia and Ukraine are doing business normally? I think Ukraine wants nothing to do with Russia, I'm not wrong.
Very true. Zelensky now understands he needs to give up land for peace. If Putin wants to keep fighting the NATO countries can keep funding Ukraine until Russia or Ukraine run out of dead bodies.
kyzr
Diamond Member
The war is not over yet. Attrition is still happening every day.
So the CIA won the strategic war, by keeping Russia and Ukraine fighting to the last man.
Who wins with a destroyed Ukraine and a depleted Russia? The US has to deal with China, the EU can handle Russia.
You can google it. France, Germany and Britain are replacing their older tanks with new modern Leopard 2 tanks.
kyzr
Diamond Member
The Biden Crime Family's connection to Burisma corruption is well documented.
Comber
Comer Demands Suspicious Activity Reports Related to Burisma and Alleged Biden Bribery Scheme - United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountability
United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountability
Fire prosecutor Shokin or don't get $billion. Obvious extortion protecting Hunter's cash cow.
Biden pardoned Hunter and other members of his crime family, that's as corrupt as it gets.
Contumacious
Radical Freedom
- Thread starter
- #330
The Biden Crime Family's connection to Burisma corruption is well documented.
Comber
Comer Demands Suspicious Activity Reports Related to Burisma and Alleged Biden Bribery Scheme - United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountability
United States House Committee on Oversight and Accountabilityoversight.house.gov
Fire prosecutor Shokin or don't get $billion. Obvious extortion protecting Hunter's cash cow.
Biden pardoned Hunter and other members of his crime family, that's as corrupt as it gets.
Ukaine PM Poroshenko was installed by Biden reason he was able to manipulate Burisma !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know. It's not that I'm a big fun of American spy movies (they are pretty hilarious), I prefer scy-fi and fantasy (and, sometimes, history), but I do know that much.
No. It just showed that Yanukovich was a coward. A raging mob never represents a true will of people. Only elections do (not always, of course, but it's much better than nothing).
Russia is no threat to them, only if they are not threat to Russia. If there are significant forces or IRBMs deploy ed - ok, then nothing can protect them NATO or not NATO. And if we do predict that there will be those forces in few years - we have to secure all the territory of the former Ukraine now. There are simply no other option, even if we don't like it (for securing territory with 20 mln population fast, means bloody fratricidal mess).
Of course no. It's Putin's metastrategy - "Better bend them than broke them" it worked well before, and it might as well work now. Capturing capital and raising your flags without actual elimination of the enemies - ok, that's how you had acted in Iraq, and look what you have there now.
In some way yes, he is playing Stalin, as Stalin played Ivan the Terrible, and Ivan the Terrible played Vlad Dracula. I know, western propaganda depicted him as a monster, but, actually, in Russia "The Story of Warchief Dracula" plays the same role as Machiavelli's "The Prince" played in the Western Europe.
And no, both Russia and Ukraine together have killed less children in three years than Israel had killed in Gaza in two months.
Who told you this? How badly they need that protection, or, in other words - how much money they are ready to pay for it? Watching their actual behaviour, it seems to me that America is more scared of Russia than Poland or Hungary.
No. Peace in Ukraine means that there is no discrimination of Russians (and other ethnic and religious groups) and there is no NATO forces. Denazification, demilitarization and neutral status. Everything else means the war.
But the Russians want to fight NATO. That's the problem.
Of course no. What is need in money, if you don't have enough weapons to defend them? You are going to lose them anyway.
It depends mostly on your definition of "normally", but, for the times of civil war - yes, its quite normal. "The Whites come, they robe us, the Reds come, they robe us. What can do a poor peasant?" But on the "new" (as you call them - "occupied") territories the Russians sell local farmers fuel and fertilisers for relatively low prices and buy their production for good prices (and often allow farmers to sell their grain themselves).
And in the wider picture, Russia is doing business quite well. Like, you know, the World Bank now placed Russia in the list of countries with high incomes.
Ukraine is a territory. It can't "want" anything. There are people who want to do some business - and they can live, and there are people who don't want to make a business - and can leave.
No. Zelenskiy does understand that if he makes peace - he is dead.
When/if the estimation of possible losses comes to one million kiled - Russia will, highly likely, nuke the UK and/or the USA. Even for now Trump already lost the great opportunity to leave this conflict almost scot-free.
And no, more money you print, more you use dollar as a weapon - lesser it is usable as a currency. And dedollarisation of the world trade means economic collapse and, likely, a civil war in the USA.
Yep. And now the World Bank place Russia in the list of countries with high incomes. And, talking about the wealth of people - how many Americans are true owners of their houses? How many Americans don't have debts and have more or less significant savings? How many Americans can afford decent schools for their children?
Of course no. We are fighting up to the last Banderlog, the survivors will join Russia. And even now Russia has more men than in 2022.
Who wins when Russia won? Of course wins Russia, but also Russian allies, including China, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela. And who is going to lose? You can accept your defeat and try to minimise the damage (and keep as much as still possible) or you can raise the stakes and lose much more (including Alaska and California).
That poor metal scrap? Are you kidding? And how many tanks they can produce with their energy system destroyed? Do you really believe that it was an accident in the Spain? After all, if "unknown Ukrainian divers" could destroy underwater pipelines, why "unknow Ukrainian hackers" couldn't hack the power system servers, or blast LNG-terminals?
kyzr
Diamond Member
For whatever reason the Ukrainians wanted to join the EU and NATO, not Russia. That should be their choice.
NATO is a defensive alliance. I doubt they would be dumb enough deploy first strike weapons on the border.
We call that reply <<<spin>>>. Putin blundered by not capturing Kiev in a few days.
Gaza is a mess. That's what happens when you support terrorists.
Actually China is a bigger threat to the US than Russia.
We'll see how this war plays out.
Very bad outcome for both.
Reducing the number of nuclear weapons to save money was Putin's idea. Trump agreed with it.
This article says that trade between Russia and Ukraine has almost stopped
How has conflict with Russia affected Ukraine’s trade?
Ukraine’s trade with Russia and other ex-Soviet republics shows no sign of bouncing back six years after the Euromaidan Revolution began
eurasianet.org
Not dead, maybe replaced in an election.
Why blame the UK or US for Putin's blunder? The war was a good idea from Russia's perspective, but poorly executed.
Very true. If the morons in Washington keep borrowing and printing dollars, sooner or later the dollar will collapse. Trump need to thread the needle by cutting spending and keeping the economy growing.
kyzr
Diamond Member
About half of Americans can afford all those things, and the bottom half of incomes struggle to get them.
Russia VS America: Real Income Comparison
A Russian monthly salary of $1,600 gives at least the same standard of living as $6,000 in America. A more competitive market economy and socially just society gives Russians much more value for money.
www.awaragroup.com
Still too many needless deaths, 112,000 Russians and 46,000 Ukrainians.
"As of March 31, 2025, the total estimated death toll from the ongoing war in Ukraine, including both military and civilian casualties, is approximately 158,341, with over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers reported killed since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Civilian deaths are reported to be around 12,910 according to the United Nations."
No offense, but Russia has villains for allies, all brutal vicious dictators, which makes Russia a villain. Russia should have sided with the democracies. History will judge Russia harshly for being on the wrong side.
This paragraph translates poorly. My statement that the new German tanks are good stands. They will be the NATO standard.
Russia has good tanks too. So does the US. You are attributing acts of terror to Ukraine. I don't think they are that capable.
Actually, at the last more or less free elections in 2010 more people voted for joining Russia's Custom Union than for EU and NATO. And, you know, people may change their opinion.
They were dumb enough to expand eastward, they were dumb enough to deploy forces, they were even dumb enough to sponsor murdering the Russians. They are obviously dumb enough to deploy first strike weapons in Poland and Germany.
To capture the city of 3 mln population in few days by pretty limited forces? It's hardly possible even with the minimal resistance.
Kievan regime also support terrorists, but the Russians don't do mess.
It depends. China with Russian support is a threat. China without Russian support is a half-colony with the cheapest workforce.
It's definitely very bad outcone for NATO, but, highly likely, it's a possible very good outcome for Russia. The final elimination of the European threat may provide great opportunities to Russia.
Obviously dead. He knows too much about Biden and other western leaders and he commited a way too many warcrimes.
Why? It's going quite well. I thought it might be a way worse.
And if you cutting spending even for Sentinel program - Ukraine and Europe are definitely a dead weight.
kyzr
Diamond Member
The last 3-years the Ukrainians are 100% for independence, which is why their military is so formidable. Many Russian men left to avoid military service, which is why Putin is using North Koreans to fight.
I hope not.
The Russians never even got to Kiev.
You threaten nuclear terror all the time.
Are your eyes slanted? Got any Chinese DNA?
Survival rates will be similar, so don't think otherwise.
Biden is history, we all know he and his family are corrupt, no news there.Zelensky will be revered as a national hero saving Ukraine from Russia.
Its stalemated, "zugzwang". Just dying for nothing.
We told the EU they need to defend themselves, Ukraine either gets a peace deal or not. NATO has lots of money.
Upgrading the ICBM deterrent is a necessary cost. Not sure how many Oreshnik missiles Russia is planning to deploy?
Of course no. They are "100% for independence" only when they are under control of SBU. When they come under control of FSB they are "100% for reintegration with Russia". And no, Ukrainian borders are closed so they just don't have a lot of choice.
Do you mean, that Americans used Ukrainians (and other allies) in Afghanistan only because America was running out of young men?
Your hope is not enough. Russia needs guarantees.
Russians have been capturing Kiev many times.
Its the only way to make business with America. The only thing that can make you hear - is to threat you with total annihilation.
No, my eyes are not slanted. Depends on your definition of "Chinese DNA". It's not really scientific, you know. Say, the most typical "Chinese" Y-chromosome O-M122 has only 50% of Chinamen, and it's not rare among other groups, like, say, Naiman Kazakhs.
Of course they won't be similar. We have more nukes and we have better civil defence.
And you know, that Clinton is a pedophile. It didn't save Epstein, as far as I know. Details are important. And hundreds of billions of stolen money are important enough to force Democrats and their CIA thugs to kill Zelenskiy.
Of course no. There will be pro-Russian regime in Kiev, and for this regime, as well as for Ukrainian people he'll be a war criminal who killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians just for his personal profit.
It's not stalemate. It's slowly but steadily moving to victory.
You need to upgrade it, of course, but you simply don't have enough of money, say nothing about sentinel became obsolete even before coming in service.
Air Force Orders Halt to Some Work on Sentinel ICBM
The Air Force is pausing work on launch facilities for its new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program (ICBM).
www.airandspaceforces.com
Oreshnik is more a demostrator of already existing technologies rather than actual weapon. It had demonstrated that Russia can hit targets as precise as one meter (3 feet) from the targeting point and penetrate concrete walls and ceilings. And it makes American siloed ICBMs more or less obsolete (both Mintemen III and Sentinel).
kyzr
Diamond Member
Looks like Ukrainians also have a "better dead than red" mentality.
Actually the US had many NATO allies join us in AFG. Russia's war in Ukraine is not popular with most Russians. Why die for another Stalin?
So what happens when Zelensky signs the "rare earth" agreement whereby US companies can come into Ukraine and mine rare metals?
I was poking fun at Putin siding with the Chinese and North Koreans over the Europeans. Russian culture is closer to European than to Chinese or North Korean cultures.
We have roughly the same number of nukes, but what counts are the number that get to their targets.
There are ways to follow the money. Republicans are hot on the trail.
Zelensky is a very popular leader and the Ukrainians fight to the death for him.
With a long trail of dead bodies and a destroyed Ukraine.
From the article. No big deal. They found an issue with the launch facility design that needs fixing.
"The order to halt work covers the “LF Standard Design,” which is the baseline design for all planned operational Sentinel launch facilities. The directive also covers work on several sites used for testing, evaluation, and training, the spokesperson said."
You were bragging that the Oreshnik was an unstoppable first strike weapon and that we had to give Russia California and Alaska. What happened?
Of course no. When the Russian forces come, Ukrainian civilians don't shout: "Russians, go home!" (few fools in Melitopol tried, but they got arrested and disappeared), they shout "Welcome, Russian brothers! Thank you, that you saved us from Banderlogs' occupation!"
Both Russians and Ukrainians has "Better dead than arrested by SBU/FSB" mentality.
Yep. As well as Russia has, not very official, a lot of allies (including some US groups) joined Russia in former Ukraine. Ever heard of Michael Gloss, son of Juliane Gallina (Deputy Director of CIA) who recently heroically died, saving his Russian comrades? He didn't sacrifice his life for Putin. He fought against Ukrainian Nazies because, he believed that it is the right thing to do.
They don't die for another Stalin. They do it because it is right thing to do, and because it is well payed job.
Actually, nothing interesting happenes. Zelenskiy got himself killed, new Ukrainian government cancel the deal. End of story.
Ukrainians (in absolute majority) don't see the situation as "Russians are our etheral and existencial enemies and we should pay Americans for defending us." No. They see it more in a way "Russians are not a threat, we can live with them, we can even serve them, but if the Americans/Europeans pay good money - we can fight against them". Not "We pay NATO for defending us", but "NATO countries pay us for defending them". And, of course, they see situation in which they lose money as totally unjustified.
Europeans want to discriminate and genocide us (and it is what they actually do) and Chinese and North Koreans are our situative allies. May be Americans might become our situative allies, too.
Really? What do you know about Russian culture (especially the modern Russian culture)? I was raised in Russian culture, I've studied English (mostly American), French (and other Roman) and Japanese cultures, right now I'm studying Chinese. And I have strong impression that, at least, Japanese culture is much more close to American culture than to Russian (may be, its because I mostly studied "Americanised" or "adoptated for tourists" parts of Japanese culture). And North Koreans much more easily getting assimilated into Russian culture than, say, Middle Asia Muslims.
Yep. The number of nukes that survive the first counter-force strike, penetrating ABD and getting to their targets (evacuated, sheltered or unsheltered). And if we strike first (and we strike first) you are deeply f#cked.
Republicans are as corrupt as Democrats. And they make agreements. And it mean, that it won't be very easy to protect the witness, especially when Dems and Reps strike the deal.
Of course no. Zelenskiy is hated by Banderlogs because he is a Jew, and Vatniks hate him because he betrayed Russian-speaking people. American money rating is still high, and this is the only thing that keeps him in more or less power.
Its quite traditional thing.
Oreshnik is an IRBM, it can give us California and Alaska only if deployed in Canada, Mexico or Cuba (which deployment you'll try to prevent by literally all costs including the threat of a nuclear war, as well as the Russian are trying to prevent deployment of Dark Eagle missiles in Europe). But the technologies of the precision targeting especially applied to SLBMs - they gave the great opportunity of the first strike. Right now, when Russian forces didn't come in Canada yet, you might not worry about Oreshnik IRBMs. But you should worry about Bulava SLBMs. If Bulava warheads are more or less that precise - even one SSBN launched missiles from Canadian waters can take out Minuteman control centers (all forty of them) by the first salvo, prevent "lauch under attack" and buy more than enough time to destroy silos themselves by more traditional missiles.
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Rigby5
Diamond Member
Wrong.
1. Satellites have nothing to do with a nuclear defensive perimeter. Satellites are constantly moving and they have to be re-aimed constantly on a very small area, so can't be used to detect nuclear launches towards Russia. And while radar works fine, it does not exist between the Ukraine and Russia.
2. The whole point of Zelensky trying to join NATO is to get US nukes on Russia's border, just like the US did when Turkey and Poland joined NATO. But realizing the risk, both Turkey and Poland forced the US to remove them.
3. Putin has to get control over the Ukraine, not only because it is of great historic and cultural importance to Russia, but because Zelensky has already committed criminal acts that require him to now be removed from office.
4. There is no "peace deal" with Zelensky in office, since he committed crimes, like approving the murder of 30k ethnic Russian citizens of the Ukraine, attempting to block Russian use of Sevastopol, trying to join NATO, etc.
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