There will NOT be an Ukranian Peace Deal

[Rigby5]

Looks like Ukrainians also have a "better dead than red" mentality.

Actually the US had many NATO allies join us in AFG. Russia's war in Ukraine is not popular with most Russians. Why die for another Stalin?

So what happens when Zelensky signs the "rare earth" agreement whereby US companies can come into Ukraine and mine rare metals?

I was poking fun at Putin siding with the Chinese and North Koreans over the Europeans. Russian culture is closer to European than to Chinese or North Korean cultures.

We have roughly the same number of nukes, but what counts are the number that get to their targets.

There are ways to follow the money. Republicans are hot on the trail.

Zelensky is a very popular leader and the Ukrainians fight to the death for him.

With a long trail of dead bodies and a destroyed Ukraine.

From the article. No big deal. They found an issue with the launch facility design that needs fixing.
"The order to halt work covers the “LF Standard Design,” which is the baseline design for all planned operational Sentinel launch facilities. The directive also covers work on several sites used for testing, evaluation, and training, the spokesperson said."

You were bragging that the Oreshnik was an unstoppable first strike weapon and that we had to give Russia California and Alaska. What happened?

Wrong.
The Ukraine was Russian since 900 AD up until the Treaty of Versailles illegally stole it from Russia.
Most Ukrainians are pro-Russia.
The only ones who are not pro-Russia, as the ethnic Polish descendants of the Old Polish Empire invasion attempt that was defeated around 1700 AD.
That is why the honest election of 2012 voted in a government that was pro-Russia.
And the Maidan Coup of 2014 was bribed by money Hunter Biden delivered.

 

[Rigby5]

Summarizing my takeaways from the lecture:
1. James Baker or some other American strategist came up with the idea to promote Ukraine independence from Russia, knowing the strategic complications that would create for Russia.
2. The Ukrainians liked the idea, and rebelled against Russia, thinking they would be like Poland.
3. Putin didn't see Ukraine like Poland but as a part of Russia that he could not let gain independence, like if a US state wanted to leave the US, it simply could not be allowed for Russia's national security.
4. Ukrainians fought a lot harder than Putin and his generals thought possible, and the 3-day war is now a 3-year war, with no end in sight. That was a strategic blunder by Russia, it had to capture Ukraine quickly but failed.
5. Putin now has two options, keep fighting until he captures all of Ukraine, totally destroying it in the process, or take as much territory as possible and take a peace deal that requires Ukraine to never join NATO, but to remain an independent country economically part of the EU.

This assumes that Putin would even allow a much smaller Ukraine to become independent.
I'm assuming that between 2014 and today that Ukraine is totally independent of Russia, so the separation would not be difficult.
Zelensky also needs to accept the much smaller Ukraine as part of any peace deal.
The alternative is WW3, not a good option.

The US & EU & NATO always try to help countries become "democracies", and oppose dictators as a general rule, even if those countries, like Ukraine, have no strategic significance. Its just what we do throughout the world.

Wrong.
Since the Ukraine already promised many times to never try to join NATO, and they violated that promise half a dozen times, the current Ukraine government can not be trusted and has to go.

And no, the Ukrainians did not "fight harder" but instead had hundreds of billions worth of the latest US weapons that the Russians were not prepared for.

The EU and NATO are the worse colonial imperialists in the world, and do not allow democracies at all when they have influence.

 

[kyzr]

Wrong.
1. Satellites have nothing to do with a nuclear defensive perimeter. Satellites are constantly moving and they have to be re-aimed constantly on a very small area, so can't be used to detect nuclear launches towards Russia. And while radar works fine, it does not exist between the Ukraine and Russia.

Satellites can see if offensive weapons are moved closer to Russia's border. Satellites can also have a geosynchronous orbit, over the same area. I call bullshit that Russia has no radar between Ukraine and Russia. Even if not, they can put some there.

2. The whole point of Zelensky trying to join NATO is to get US nukes on Russia's border, just like the US did when Turkey and Poland joined NATO. But realizing the risk, both Turkey and Poland forced the US to remove them.

Wrong. There will be no nukes in Ukraine either.

3. Putin has to get control over the Ukraine, not only because it is of great historic and cultural importance to Russia, but because Zelensky has already committed criminal acts that require him to now be removed from office.

Russian propaganda. Culture? Is that why Putin is joining up with China and North Korea?

4. There is no "peace deal" with Zelensky in office, since he committed crimes, like approving the murder of 30k ethnic Russian citizens of the Ukraine, attempting to block Russian use of Sevastopol, trying to join NATO, etc.

We'll see how the peace deal happens. I haven't heard of Putin making those demands.

 

[kyzr]

Wrong.
The Ukraine was Russian since 900 AD up until the Treaty of Versailles illegally stole it from Russia. Most Ukrainians are pro-Russia.
The only ones who are not pro-Russia, as the ethnic Polish descendants of the Old Polish Empire invasion attempt that was defeated around 1700 AD. That is why the honest election of 2012 voted in a government that was pro-Russia.
And the Maidan Coup of 2014 was bribed by money Hunter Biden delivered.

Ancient history doesn't matter. Money can't make people risk their lives for freedom.
The Maidan Revolution was sincere Ukrainian patriotism for independence from Russia.

 

[kyzr]

Wrong.
Since the Ukraine already promised many times to never try to join NATO, and they violated that promise half a dozen times, the current Ukraine government can not be trusted and has to go.
And no, the Ukrainians did not "fight harder" but instead had hundreds of billions worth of the latest US weapons that the Russians were not prepared for. The EU and NATO are the worse colonial imperialists in the world, and do not allow democracies at all when they have influence.

Democracies vote for who they want. Foreign influence can't subvert the will of the people.
Obama sent MREs and blankets. The EU and NATO are not imperialists, they allow capitalism and freedom from brutal dictators like Putin. Democracies flourish when they are in the EU.

 

[kyzr]

Of course no. When the Russian forces come, Ukrainian civilians don't shout: "Russians, go home!" (few fools in Melitopol tried, but they got arrested and disappeared), they shout "Welcome, Russian brothers! Thank you, that you saved us from Banderlogs' occupation!"

Nonsense. Ukrainians are fighting to be free from Russia.

Both Russians and Ukrainians has "Better dead than arrested by SBU/FSB" mentality.

True.

Yep. As well as Russia has, not very official, a lot of allies (including some US groups) joined Russia in former Ukraine. Ever heard of Michael Gloss, son of Juliane Gallina (Deputy Director of CIA) who recently heroically died, saving his Russian comrades? He didn't sacrifice his life for Putin. He fought against Ukrainian Nazies because, he believed that it is the right thing to do.

The official story is that he "was struggling with mental health issues".

They don't die for another Stalin. They do it because it is right thing to do, and because it is well payed job.

So you say. Many others would rather leave Russia than get drafted.

Actually, nothing interesting happens. Zelenskiy got himself killed, new Ukrainian government cancel the deal. End of story.

Nope. The deal was signed yesterday. Now what? Mine in west Ukraine away from the war?

Ukrainians (in absolute majority) don't see the situation as "Russians are our etheral and existential enemies and we should pay Americans for defending us." No. They see it more in a way "Russians are not a threat, we can live with them, we can even serve them, but if the Americans/Europeans pay good money - we can fight against them". Not "We pay NATO for defending us", but "NATO countries pay us for defending them". And, of course, they see situation in which they lose money as totally unjustified.

Actually, its more like Ukrainians want to keep their independence from Russia.

Europeans want to discriminate and genocide us (and it is what they actually do) and Chinese and North Koreans are our situative allies. May be Americans might become our situative allies, too.

Wrong about genocide, the west is all about business partners and prosperity. Enjoy being partners with China and NK.

Really? What do you know about Russian culture (especially the modern Russian culture)? I was raised in Russian culture, I've studied English (mostly American), French (and other Roman) and Japanese cultures, right now I'm studying Chinese. And I have strong impression that, at least, Japanese culture is much more close to American culture than to Russian (may be, its because I mostly studied "Americanised" or "adopted for tourists" parts of Japanese culture). And North Koreans much more easily getting assimilated into Russian culture than, say, Middle Asia Muslims.

We study Japanese methods of efficiency, I also studied karate'. I also like their philosophies.

Yep. The number of nukes that survive the first counter-force strike, penetrating ABD and getting to their targets (evacuated, sheltered or unsheltered). And if we strike first you are deeply f#cked.

...as is Russia.

Republicans are as corrupt as Democrats. And they make agreements. And it mean, that it won't be very easy to protect the witness, especially when Dems and Reps strike the deal.

No one is as corrupt as democrats.

Zelenskiy is hated by Banderlogs because he is a Jew, and Vatniks hate him because he betrayed Russian-speaking people. American money rating is still high, and this is the only thing that keeps him in more or less power.

He was a Jewish comedian. He is doing a good job keeping Ukraine free from Russia, as long as the money keeps flowing to keep his military supplied. Putin may see that he has taken about as much land as is possible and will now take a peace deal.

Oreshnik is an IRBM, it can give us California and Alaska only if deployed in Canada, Mexico or Cuba (which deployment you'll try to prevent by literally all costs including the threat of a nuclear war, as well as the Russian are trying to prevent deployment of Dark Eagle missiles in Europe). But the technologies of the precision targeting especially applied to SLBMs - they gave the great opportunity of the first strike. Right now, when Russian forces didn't come in Canada yet, you might not worry about Oreshnik IRBMs. But you should worry about Bulava SLBMs. If Bulava warheads are more or less that precise - even one SSBN launched missiles from Canadian waters can take out Minuteman control centers (all forty of them) by the first salvo, prevent "lauch under attack" and buy more than enough time to destroy silos themselves by more traditional missiles.

I hope Trump takes Cuba. They are having problems now. We feel safe between two big oceans. We also feel safe knowing that our neighbors are friendly towards us.

 

[Zavulon]

Nonsense. Ukrainians are fighting to be free from Russia.

No. A lot of Ukrainians are fighting to be free from Kievan or Brussels regimes.

True.

The official story is that he "was struggling with mental health issues".

As if other Americans (or Russians) aren't struggling with mental health issues. No one is sane. Some just are not diagnosed.

So you say. Many others would rather leave Russia than get drafted.

Borders are open. Anyone who wants to leave - can leave.

Nope. The deal was signed yesterday. Now what? Mine in west Ukraine away from the war?

First of all, if we believe to what was written about the deal by Ukrainians, its absolutely meaningless.

-------------
- Key points from the 'Minerals Deal':

• Ukraine has full ownership and control of all resources, and chooses what to extract and when to extract.
• The US-Ukraine will add to the Investment Fund equally - a 50/50 investment.
• The US will contribute via financially and through additional resources - including air defenses!
• The US to invest in Ukraine's natural resources industry, the projects will be determined equally by both partners.
• Past US assistance, including military aid, is not included in the deal. No US debt is mentioned.
• The first 10 years, ALL profits will go back into Ukraine as reinvestments, Ukraine chooses entirely what to invest in. That includes post-war reconstruction, defense spending, or new projects.

A major win for Ukraine.
----------------
If we believe them (I really don't, so lets wait for better explanations), Trump was deeply f#cked by Europe and Ukraine and he got nothing.
Second - there is no safe place in Ukraine, so if Trump wants to mine - he need to have an agreement with Russia, too. And he won't have it until the end of denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
Third - if Trump was f#cked by Ukraine, he'll be definitely f#cked by Russia, too. So, if there will be a deal - it'll be on the Russia's terms.

Actually, its more like Ukrainians want to keep their independence from Russia.

Nah.. They want money, that's all.

Wrong about genocide, the west is all about business partners and prosperity. Enjoy being partners with China and NK.

And your words are pretty the same lie, that was speaded by Germans, Frenches, Swedens, Lithuanians, Poles and many others during the previous centuries. And its simply obvious lie. You do discriminate and you do genocide Russians. It is the fact, and your denialism is just making your negotiation position much weaker.

We study Japanese methods of efficiency, I also studied karate'. I also like their philosophies.

And many people can say that slander-eye Japanese are more culturally close to Americans than the Russians, right?

...as is Russia.

Russia might suffer terrible, but definitely acceptable level of damage. No more than ten million killed, more likely - less than one million killed.

No one is as corrupt as democrats.

Doesn't really matter. Reps will make a deal with Dems (they always do), some money will change their owner, and poor Zelenskiy is dead.

He was a Jewish comedian. He is doing a good job keeping Ukraine free from Russia, as long as the money keeps flowing to keep his military supplied. Putin may see that he has taken about as much land as is possible and will now take a peace deal.

It is not about land and never was. It is about safety of Russia and Russian people.

I hope Trump takes Cuba. They are having problems now. We feel safe between two big oceans. We also feel safe knowing that our neighbors are friendly towards us.

Everything has its price. There is the price of peace with Mexico and Canada, too.

 

[Zavulon]

Satellites can see if offensive weapons are moved closer to Russia's border. Satellites can also have a geosynchronous orbit, over the same area. I call bullshit that Russia has no radar between Ukraine and Russia. Even if not, they can put some there.

Ok. There are American offencive weapons deployed near Russian border. Russia protested, and the USA just said "f#ck off". That is the main reason why Russia started SMO.

Wrong. There will be no nukes in Ukraine either.

Just your words. And you are untrustworthy.

Russian propaganda. Culture? Is that why Putin is joining up with China and North Korea?

Yep. Ever heards songs of Victor Tsoy (Russian singer of North Korean origin) or Kuaizuokai (chinese singer of Russian origin)?

We'll see how the peace deal happens. I haven't heard of Putin making those demands.

It's a part of the "denazification" process. No reason to call individual names. All Banderlogs should be dead.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Satellites have nothing to do with a nuclear defensive perimeter. Satellites are constantly moving and they have to be re-aimed constantly on a very small area, so can't be used to detect nuclear launches towards Russia.

Baloney.