RandomVariable
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- Jan 7, 2014
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- #41
I think we would both agree the current ceasefire and #1 are about the same right now. I don't think we even need #3. I would say if Putin goes through Mariupol and comes out the other side he gets #3. I think if we put firm commitment behind #2 that should be enough to stop Putin, and ramp up #3 in the background. Train the Ukrainians with anti-tank and precision artillery or the like and line everyone and everything up just north of Mariupol. Give the Ukrainians a just-in-time supply of ammo, like max three day supply. That way Ukrainians can fire constantly but as soon as the firing stops they don't have stockpiles of ammo laying around. Oh, and sniper rifles. Nothing brings a front line to a stand still like sniper rifles these days. NRA was giving away a 50 cal at their last annual meeting.If the cease fire fails we have three options:
1. Play around with diplomatic games till Putin has all of Eastern Ukraine, and more.
2. Sell Ukraine arms and train their forces, so that Russia will have to put more into the conflict. It would give Putin a bloody nose, for sure.
3. Begin giving weapons, and advanced hardware to Ukraine to use against Russia, and authorize NATO bombing of the rebels.
Whatever happens Ukraine is like the Korean war, with Russia backing the East and the West backing West Ukraine.
We can back down and accept Eastern Ukraine will be part of Russia, or we can fund and support West Ukraine.
Though Putin will still hold Crimea, and not give up what he already has, as Russia has too strong a presence in East Ukraine to be defeated.