Russia will go for land bridge to Crimea

[RandomVariable]

That is one BIG column of hardware. Some of that stuff all shiny and new too. I take the publisher at their word. Several shots of flags and identifications so if anyone knows what they refer to please let me know.

 

[RandomVariable]

Feb 22, 2015

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Obama gave Vlad Crimea...

Really? When did that happen? I never realized Crimea was ours to give or not give.

 

[RandomVariable]

Well this is something to consider.
Two U.S. Ships in Black Sea French Surveillance Ship Due Friday - USNI News

All warships from countries without a coast on the Black Sea operate under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.

Montreux rules call for foreign warships to depart the Black Sea after 21 days.​

All warships without a coast on the Black Sea. Ukraine has a coast on the Black Sea. Unfortunately Ukraine does not have a decent warship. If someone were to, let's say, let Ukraine borrow one....

 

[RandomVariable]

Russian army prepares for new attacks from Ukraine s Novoazovsk
Feb. 24, 2015, 8:51 p.m. | Ukraine — by Stefan Huijboom

"It is no secret that the Russian army is here. My wife runs a small shop and some men only wanted to pay in rubles. They are Russian! They have broken the silence that we once had!" Vladimir said, as his three chess partners agreed in unison.

"We'd like them to leave. It's not their country," he says. "I've lived most of my life in the Soviet Union. I consider myself Ukrainian, but I prefer to live in Russia, yes. You know why? Because my wife is from Russia. My two sons live in Russia. My entire family lives in Russia. Does this mean I support the war in Ukraine? No! The Russians should not fight in Ukraine. It's meaningless."

Just as he finishes his sentence, loud outgoing artillery fire is heard. "As an old man I'm glad I have some hearing problems," he jokes.​

 

[RandomVariable]

A News 4 report today from Mariupol. News 4 is actually a YouTube channel. I was thinking that there is no time to really build up the defenses of Mariupol and it would be better to let Russia take the city. Then when then bear stretched out his neck to bite the next one strafe it like there is no tomorrow. This is a very important city however and it might be too valuable in itself to let fall.

 

[JWBooth]

A News 4 report today from Mariupol. News 4 is actually a YouTube channel. I was thinking that there is no time to really build up the defenses of Mariupol and it would be better to let Russia take the city. Then when then bear stretched out his neck to bite the next one strafe it like there is no tomorrow. This is a very important city however and it might be too valuable in itself to let fall.

Yet, it is still NOT our problem.

 

[RandomVariable]

A News 4 report today from Mariupol. News 4 is actually a YouTube channel. I was thinking that there is no time to really build up the defenses of Mariupol and it would be better to let Russia take the city. Then when then bear stretched out his neck to bite the next one strafe it like there is no tomorrow. This is a very important city however and it might be too valuable in itself to let fall.

Yet, it is still NOT our problem.

Do you think we should have gotten involved in WWII? While the war would have lasted a few more years eventually Hitler would have run out of steam. If we made it absolutely plain that we were not getting involved Japan might have focused its attention elsewhere the whole war. There is a pretty good chance that if we had stayed out of WWII the world would look pretty much as it does now. (Let's just say for arguments sake.)

 

[RandomVariable]

Things are kind of quiet at the moment. Putin claims that Ukraine is not supplying gas to the eastern regions which threatens their lives. Excuse for full scale invasion of the region? Fortunately some feel that although they might not be special forces grade yet they are training to defend their country.

 

[RandomVariable]

Question for consideration: Does Putin have a timing problem? When scheduling a military operation each event must happen within a certain timeframe. If the schedule gets moved up too far then not everything will be in place when it is needed. There is also a problem if there is a delay in the schedule. Assets sitting in one place to long might create problems in coordination. If the ceasefire was expected to fail but did not then Putin has to wait until something equivalent to the ceasefire failing happens, or he has to make something happen.

Two thoughts one post. My guess is that leaked document that Putin was eyeing the destabilization in the Ukraine is actually bogus. Not that Putin that was not but the document is designed to give the impression that was the only thing Putin was keeping his eye on.

 

[RandomVariable]

Published on Feb 26, 2015

 

[RandomVariable]

Sorry. Can't understand a word of it. I think the picture says a lot though.

Published on Feb 26, 2015

 

[JWBooth]

A News 4 report today from Mariupol. News 4 is actually a YouTube channel. I was thinking that there is no time to really build up the defenses of Mariupol and it would be better to let Russia take the city. Then when then bear stretched out his neck to bite the next one strafe it like there is no tomorrow. This is a very important city however and it might be too valuable in itself to let fall.

Yet, it is still NOT our problem.

Do you think we should have gotten involved in WWII? While the war would have lasted a few more years eventually Hitler would have run out of steam. If we made it absolutely plain that we were not getting involved Japan might have focused its attention elsewhere the whole war. There is a pretty good chance that if we had stayed out of WWII the world would look pretty much as it does now. (Let's just say for arguments sake.)

Tough nut, because Monday morning quarterbacking is wonderfully easy and you can never know what would have really happened if something changed. WWI was a squabble that had been fought to a standstill and was ripe for a negotiated settlement at the moment the US jumped in and changed the dynamic. There is a quote from Churchill stating that if the US had not intervened there would have been no Hitler and no Bolshevik victory in Russia. Likely this would have prevented WWII.
Hitler's stated goal was a German return to its borders prior to WWI, and until the intervention by France and Britain over the Poland invasion widened the conflict, that is what was happening. Would he have stopped? Who knows for sure? Stalin was equally evil yet US foreign policy was to aid that tyrant. Would the German army have occupied France if the French had maintained a hands off attitude, modernised its military as a defensive counter and let the two tyrants concentrate their slaughter in the east?
I dunno about the 1940's, but what I do fervently believe is that without the US intervening in other people's problems in the early 1900's much misery could have been avoided in the 1940's, so why continue to repeat the mistakes of the past?

 

[RandomVariable]

A News 4 report today from Mariupol. News 4 is actually a YouTube channel. I was thinking that there is no time to really build up the defenses of Mariupol and it would be better to let Russia take the city. Then when then bear stretched out his neck to bite the next one strafe it like there is no tomorrow. This is a very important city however and it might be too valuable in itself to let fall.

Yet, it is still NOT our problem.

Do you think we should have gotten involved in WWII? While the war would have lasted a few more years eventually Hitler would have run out of steam. If we made it absolutely plain that we were not getting involved Japan might have focused its attention elsewhere the whole war. There is a pretty good chance that if we had stayed out of WWII the world would look pretty much as it does now. (Let's just say for arguments sake.)

Tough nut, because Monday morning quarterbacking is wonderfully easy and you can never know what would have really happened if something changed. WWI was a squabble that had been fought to a standstill and was ripe for a negotiated settlement at the moment the US jumped in and changed the dynamic. There is a quote from Churchill stating that if the US had not intervened there would have been no Hitler and no Bolshevik victory in Russia. Likely this would have prevented WWII.
Hitler's stated goal was a German return to its borders prior to WWI, and until the intervention by France and Britain over the Poland invasion widened the conflict, that is what was happening. Would he have stopped? Who knows for sure? Stalin was equally evil yet US foreign policy was to aid that tyrant. Would the German army have occupied France if the French had maintained a hands off attitude, modernised its military as a defensive counter and let the two tyrants concentrate their slaughter in the east?
I dunno about the 1940's, but what I do fervently believe is that without the US intervening in other people's problems in the early 1900's much misery could have been avoided in the 1940's, so why continue to repeat the mistakes of the past?

Interesting. I will have to give some thought to this. Maybe someone who is more familiar than me with the dynamics of WW II could reply.

 

[RandomVariable]

Far be it for me to argue with the James Clapper but I believe Putin will act sooner rather than later. Putin has got to figure the West will arm the Ukrainians sooner of later. So Putin definitely wants to be where he is going before then. Putin has to escalate in such a manner as to get as much captured as possible before triggering Western intervention. Putin is going to try and take Mariupol. We can either just let him have it, we can arm early and try to put Putin in a position where he is not yet optimized, or we can wait until the artillery starts flying and hope to come in stronger and with more determination. Putin is definitely taking our actions into account in his strategy.

Vladimir Putin is planning to seize Mariupol warns America s top intelligence official Daily Mail Online

'It is not our assessment that he is bent on capturing or conquering all of Ukraine,' said James Clapper, US Director of National Intelligence.

'He wants a whole entity composed of the two oblasts (regions) in eastern Ukraine which would include a land bridge to Crimea and perhaps a port, specifically Mariupol.

'We do not believe that an attack on Mariupol is imminent. I believe they will wait until the spring before they attack.'

Ahead of a ceasefire, which has led to a lull in fighting in recent days, there were acute fears that pro-Moscow rebels were preparing an assault on Mariupol, a Sea of Azov port.

Rebels were now 'reconstituting and regrouping', he warned.

Moscow has struggled to supply Crimea from mainland Russia since annexing the Black Sea peninsula a year ago.

​

 

[RandomVariable]

My apologies that these maps are really difficult to compare. Seems that since too much focus is on the south Putin has been pushing the northern front. From the map of battles it shows conflict in Artemivsk. Putin must figure that if the measure of violation of the ceasefire is attacking Mariupol he will just take the rest of the Ukraine and leave Mariupol alone. Buhas on the first map is next to Volnovakha on the second map.

 

[JWBooth]

And still, it is none of our business, and not our problem.

 

[RandomVariable]

And still, it is none of our business, and not our problem.

Is it anyone's business or problem except Russia's and the Ukraine's?

 

[hipeter924]

What Ukraine will be (in blue) if Putin wins his proxy war.

 

[hipeter924]

If the cease fire fails we have three options:

1. Play around with diplomatic games till Putin has all of Eastern Ukraine, and more.
2. Sell Ukraine arms and train their forces, so that Russia will have to put more into the conflict. It would give Putin a bloody nose, for sure.
3. Begin giving weapons, and advanced hardware to Ukraine to use against Russia, and authorize NATO bombing of the rebels.

Whatever happens Ukraine is like the Korean war, with Russia backing the East and the West backing West Ukraine.

We can back down and accept Eastern Ukraine will be part of Russia, or we can fund and support West Ukraine.

Though Putin will still hold Crimea, and not give up what he already has, as Russia has too strong a presence in East Ukraine to be defeated.