Real Clear Politics Map

[HikerGuy83]

9/3 in the morning:

Harris ==> 270
Trump ==> 268

Harris is up by 1.8%

 

[HikerGuy83]

Oh the irony. I can’t wait to throw that one back in your face

Still waiting.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/4, it appears things have changed a little.

PA went back to Red.
GA went blue.
NV went Blue.

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Getting interesting.

 

[marvin martian]

As of 9/4, it appears things have changed a little.

PA went back to Red.
GA went blue.
NV went Blue.

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Getting interesting.

Depends where you look:

 

[HikerGuy83]

Depends where you look:

I only track the RCP map with no toss ups.

That's it.
That is what this thread is about.

 

[Slade3200]

Still waiting.

Thank you! Hang in there…

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/5 in the morning,

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Very interesting article this morning:

MSN

Prominent elections analyst and statistician Nate Silver said Wednesday that former President Trump is now electorally favored to defeat Kamala Harris in November by the widest margin in months.

Silver released his latest election forecast, writing on his Substack, "The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30," Silver wrote.

Silver's nuanced election forecast model shows Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since last Thursday. Harris' odds meanwhile, have decreased from 47.3% to 41.6%.

He also noted that Harris seemingly didn't benefit from a DNC bounce as much as election models had predicted.

*****************************

However, looking at his website, it still says Harris is favored.

He lead is declining, but she's still at 55%.

I looked at the links in the article. I can't find the numbers they are talking about. So, I am a little skeptical at this point.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As no 9/6

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Harris has gained 0.1% in overall polling. She has essentially leveled off.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/7

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Harris is still at 1.9% greater than Trump in national polling.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/8

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Harris is still at 1.9% greater than Trump in national polling.

My feeds are awash with Nate Silver's predictions.....I am not getting the disconnetc.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/9 in the morning

Harris ==> 273
Trump ==> 265

Harris is down to 1.4% on the national level.

 

[HikerGuy83]

"One of the best pollsters in the country has bad news for Kamala Harris," Silver wrote. "It confirms the model's view that there's been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race." According to Silver's polling aggregate model, Harris now leads Trump 48.7 percent to 46.2 percent, a slight drop from her 49.2 percent to 45.7 percent margin just a week earlier.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/10 - morning

RCP Swings PA back to red in the No-Toss-Up Map

Trump ==> 281
Harris ==> 257

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/17 - afternoon

RCP NTU Map swings back to Trump:
Trump ==> 281
Harris==> 257

Not sure what happened....I thought I had posted this up through yesterday where Harris was leading.

Harris is now up 1.6% in the RCP poll average.

 

[Moonglow]

This is to track the map as it changes.

Right now, it is favorable Trump without toss-up states.

I am surprised by the numbers. It's been this way for a week.

This is as of 8/22.

View attachment 999751

The Electoral College elects the president not the popular vote.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/18 - Morning

RCP NTU Map:

Trump ==> 281
Harris ==> 257

Harris is at 1.6% in the RCP poll average.

PA or NC or GA could swing this sucker one way or the other.

 

[HikerGuy83]

As of 9/18 - Evening

RCP NTU Map:

Trump ==> 262
Harris ==> 276

PA flips again !

 

[HikerGuy83]

Ruh Ro.....

Nate Silver (not 538 which is now affiliated with ABC and therefor totally unreliable) says Harris now has a better chance.

Trump is slipping.

Not good

 

[FA_Q2]

Why track 'no toss up' numbers? That is like tracking just TX or just CA and then extrapolating that to the election. IOW, useless.

 

[j-mac]

Anyone who believes that this is close, is a moron…