Polling samples

[thereisnospoon]

..Polling samples are skewing results to Obama's favor.
Some polls are as much as +15% democrat responders.
Also many polls are "registered voters" rather than "likely voters". The latter category tend to vote GOP.
Obama leads in skewed CBS poll weighted 13 percent in favor of Democrats - Spokane Conservative | Examiner.com
How Biased Are Polls? - Katrina Trinko - National Review Online..
The liberal media and of course the pollsters know they must change the narrative. They know the President cannot run on his record. Polls are being used as a weapon to discourage likely GOP voters to give up and stay away from the voting booth.
It will not work.

 

[Old Rocks]

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

And if Romney keeps shooting his mouth off, the President may get over 400 electorial votes.

 

[VaYank5150]

..Polling samples are skewing results to Obama's favor.
Some polls are as much as +15% democrat responders.
Also many polls are "registered voters" rather than "likely voters". The latter category tend to vote GOP.
Obama leads in skewed CBS poll weighted 13 percent in favor of Democrats - Spokane Conservative | Examiner.com
How Biased Are Polls? - Katrina Trinko - National Review Online..
The liberal media and of course the pollsters know they must change the narrative. They know the President cannot run on his record. Polls are being used as a weapon to discourage likely GOP voters to give up and stay away from the voting booth.
It will not work.

That's it....it's the poor polling data. I am sure it has NOTHING to do with Romney's constant gaffes, nor his out of control campaign workers....

 

[Gareyt17]

..Polling samples are skewing results to Obama's favor.
Some polls are as much as +15% democrat responders.
Also many polls are "registered voters" rather than "likely voters". The latter category tend to vote GOP.
Obama leads in skewed CBS poll weighted 13 percent in favor of Democrats - Spokane Conservative | Examiner.com
How Biased Are Polls? - Katrina Trinko - National Review Online..
The liberal media and of course the pollsters know they must change the narrative. They know the President cannot run on his record. Polls are being used as a weapon to discourage likely GOP voters to give up and stay away from the voting booth.
It will not work.

YEP!


On Real Clear Politics they cite a new AP poll that gives Obama a 1 point edge over Romney!


BUT


You have to look at the very bottom to find their sampling data regarding party affiliation for the respondents.


In this poll they sampled, ready for it? 31% Democrat vs 22% Republican..

A 9% differential yields a 1 point lead for Obama!

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK Poll September 2012 Topline_1st release.pdf


and yet these people continue to expect to be viewed with credibility?

 

[Saigon]

So when the polls show Romney to lose by miles - the polls must be wrong!!

Wonderful thread; very, very funny.

 

[Gareyt17]

So when the polls show Romney to lose by miles - the polls must be wrong!!

Wonderful thread; very, very funny.

The sampling data is the sampling data......you can try to twist the reality all you want..it won't change the facts.

 

[Saigon]

So when the polls show Romney to lose by miles - the polls must be wrong!!

Wonderful thread; very, very funny.

The sampling data is the sampling data......you can try to twist the reality all you want..it won't change the facts.

Exactly - and well said.


President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

 

[JustSomeGuy]

So when the polls show Romney to lose by miles - the polls must be wrong!!

Wonderful thread; very, very funny.

The sampling data is the sampling data......you can try to twist the reality all you want..it won't change the facts.

Exactly - and well said.


President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

What (s)he is saying is that most polls are assuming a ridiculously high level of Democrat turnout versus Republican turnout (generally even worse than 2008) when chances are that you won't see such a big gap in this year's presidential election. Most polls are OVERSAMPLING Democrats and, even then, in most cases the polls are still within the margin of error. That's not a good sign for Obama.

 

[Saigon]

What (s)he is saying is that most polls are assuming a ridiculously high level of Democrat turnout versus Republican turnout (generally even worse than 2008) when chances are that you won't see such a big gap in this year's presidential election. Most polls are OVERSAMPLING Democrats and, even then, in most cases the polls are still within the margin of error. That's not a good sign for Obama.

Oh yes, that is what he is saying, I'm sure.

But that does not explain why Other polls, such as Gallup, ALSO have Obama ahead.

 

[AmyNation]

How do you know polls are over sampling democrats?

 

[AquaAthena]

..Polling samples are skewing results to Obama's favor.
Some polls are as much as +15% democrat responders.
Also many polls are "registered voters" rather than "likely voters". The latter category tend to vote GOP.
Obama leads in skewed CBS poll weighted 13 percent in favor of Democrats - Spokane Conservative | Examiner.com
How Biased Are Polls? - Katrina Trinko - National Review Online..
The liberal media and of course the pollsters know they must change the narrative. They know the President cannot run on his record. Polls are being used as a weapon to discourage likely GOP voters to give up and stay away from the voting booth.
It will not work.

I'll be paying more attention to the polls after the debates end. One full month in October. Really looking forward to Biden and Ryan, on the fourth week...lol

 

[JustSomeGuy]

What (s)he is saying is that most polls are assuming a ridiculously high level of Democrat turnout versus Republican turnout (generally even worse than 2008) when chances are that you won't see such a big gap in this year's presidential election. Most polls are OVERSAMPLING Democrats and, even then, in most cases the polls are still within the margin of error. That's not a good sign for Obama.

Oh yes, that is what he is saying, I'm sure.

But that does not explain why Other polls, such as Gallup, ALSO have Obama ahead.

As of yesterday, Gallup had Obama ahead 47 - 46 among registered voters. Republicans generally have the advantage when it comes to likely voters (the difference between "registered" voters and "likely" voters is generally like 1.5 in Republicans favor). Even looking at polls today, Rassmussen's daily tracker has Romney ahead by 1 among likely voters while the AP poll has Obama ahead by 1 among likely voters. At worse they're tied and at best Romney has a slight lead. It's more likely, however, that right now Romney has a slight lead in the race.

How do you know polls are over sampling democrats?

By looking at the demographic splits and weights assigned to each group that most pollsters release along with their polls.

 

[Leweman]

Romney is leading this race. Its why the media keeps trying to change the narrative and over reacting to comments by Romney instead of questioning the ineptness of this president. It's a joke what the media coverage has become. The fact that Romney is up with the horribly biased media coverage shows you how bad Obama is. Short of rigging the election. He doesn't have a chance.

 

[AmyNation]

What (s)he is saying is that most polls are assuming a ridiculously high level of Democrat turnout versus Republican turnout (generally even worse than 2008) when chances are that you won't see such a big gap in this year's presidential election. Most polls are OVERSAMPLING Democrats and, even then, in most cases the polls are still within the margin of error. That's not a good sign for Obama.

Oh yes, that is what he is saying, I'm sure.

But that does not explain why Other polls, such as Gallup, ALSO have Obama ahead.

As of yesterday, Gallup had Obama ahead 47 - 46 among registered voters. Republicans generally have the advantage when it comes to likely voters (the difference between "registered" voters and "likely" voters is generally like 1.5 in Republicans favor). Even looking at polls today, Rassmussen's daily tracker has Romney ahead by 1 among likely voters while the AP poll has Obama ahead by 1 among likely voters. At worse they're tied and at best Romney has a slight lead. It's more likely, however, that right now Romney has a slight lead in the race.

How do you know polls are over sampling democrats?

By looking at the demographic splits and weights assigned to each group that most pollsters release along with their polls.

Yes, I agree more dems are being polled, however how do you know what the ratio of dem/pub/independent should be?

 

[rightwinger]

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

President Obama 332 Governor Romney 206

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

And if Romney keeps shooting his mouth off, the President may get over 400 electorial votes.

In fact...If Romney keeps shooting himself in the foot you will actually have that many Democratic voters

 

[rightwinger]

Oh yes, that is what he is saying, I'm sure.

But that does not explain why Other polls, such as Gallup, ALSO have Obama ahead.

As of yesterday, Gallup had Obama ahead 47 - 46 among registered voters. Republicans generally have the advantage when it comes to likely voters (the difference between "registered" voters and "likely" voters is generally like 1.5 in Republicans favor). Even looking at polls today, Rassmussen's daily tracker has Romney ahead by 1 among likely voters while the AP poll has Obama ahead by 1 among likely voters. At worse they're tied and at best Romney has a slight lead. It's more likely, however, that right now Romney has a slight lead in the race.

How do you know polls are over sampling democrats?

By looking at the demographic splits and weights assigned to each group that most pollsters release along with their polls.

Yes, I agree more dems are being polled, however how do you know what the ratio of dem/pub/independent should be?

You don't

Any poll that sets out to poll an equal number of Democratic and Republican voters is invalid

What a poll does is sample 1000 voters. It does not try to sample 500 Republicans and 500 Democrats....just 1000 random voters

If it turns out that 550 of those voters are Democrat it does not invalidate the poll

 

[Lonestar_logic]

As of yesterday, Gallup had Obama ahead 47 - 46 among registered voters. Republicans generally have the advantage when it comes to likely voters (the difference between "registered" voters and "likely" voters is generally like 1.5 in Republicans favor). Even looking at polls today, Rassmussen's daily tracker has Romney ahead by 1 among likely voters while the AP poll has Obama ahead by 1 among likely voters. At worse they're tied and at best Romney has a slight lead. It's more likely, however, that right now Romney has a slight lead in the race.



By looking at the demographic splits and weights assigned to each group that most pollsters release along with their polls.

Yes, I agree more dems are being polled, however how do you know what the ratio of dem/pub/independent should be?

You don't

Any poll that sets out to poll an equal number of Democratic and Republican voters is invalid

What a poll does is sample 1000 voters. It does not try to sample 500 Republicans and 500 Democrats....just 1000 random voters

If it turns out that 550 of those voters are Democrat it does not invalidate the poll

You are an idiot.

If those being polled overwhelmingly support one party over the other then the data will not be an accurate representation.

A more accurate poll would poll 33.333 percent of each democrat, republican and independent.

 

[JustSomeGuy]

Oh yes, that is what he is saying, I'm sure.

But that does not explain why Other polls, such as Gallup, ALSO have Obama ahead.

As of yesterday, Gallup had Obama ahead 47 - 46 among registered voters. Republicans generally have the advantage when it comes to likely voters (the difference between "registered" voters and "likely" voters is generally like 1.5 in Republicans favor). Even looking at polls today, Rassmussen's daily tracker has Romney ahead by 1 among likely voters while the AP poll has Obama ahead by 1 among likely voters. At worse they're tied and at best Romney has a slight lead. It's more likely, however, that right now Romney has a slight lead in the race.

How do you know polls are over sampling democrats?

By looking at the demographic splits and weights assigned to each group that most pollsters release along with their polls.

Yes, I agree more dems are being polled, however how do you know what the ratio of dem/pub/independent should be?

You don't, but you can look at historical splits in Presidential races and attempt to weight accordingly. Any poll which has more than a D+4 sample you can consider bunk just like any poll which has Republicans casting less than 35% of the total vote you can pretty much consider bunk. Most pollsters are assuming 2008 level type turnout, which was an anomaly year.

 

[tjvh]

..Polling samples are skewing results to Obama's favor.
Some polls are as much as +15% democrat responders.
Also many polls are "registered voters" rather than "likely voters". The latter category tend to vote GOP.
Obama leads in skewed CBS poll weighted 13 percent in favor of Democrats - Spokane Conservative | Examiner.com
How Biased Are Polls? - Katrina Trinko - National Review Online..
The liberal media and of course the pollsters know they must change the narrative. They know the President cannot run on his record. Polls are being used as a weapon to discourage likely GOP voters to give up and stay away from the voting booth.
It will not work.

YEP!


On Real Clear Politics they cite a new AP poll that gives Obama a 1 point edge over Romney!


BUT


You have to look at the very bottom to find their sampling data regarding party affiliation for the respondents.


In this poll they sampled, ready for it? 31% Democrat vs 22% Republican..

A 9% differential yields a 1 point lead for Obama!

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK Poll September 2012 Topline_1st release.pdf


and yet these people continue to expect to be viewed with credibility?

When you factor in the fact that Democrats were oversampled... Obama is in real trouble.

 

[Saigon]

Lonstar -

Rightwinger is correct, IMHO.

If one party has 70% real world support, then 70% of the people I call should be his supporters, correct?